Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oetting: Genomic medicine will transform economy and lives almost as much as AI
“I think there's going to be almost as much of a change in, like, the way that our economy and our lives work from genomic medicines as from AI.”
Opinion
Oetting: Growth Hardtech Needs Risk-Tolerant Infrastructure Project Financing
“There's a big gap between using venture capital and the private credit markets that are more traditional and sort of profit oriented. And there really needs to be an basically infrastructure financing or project financing for growth stage businesses. That's a …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oetting: AI Productivity Will Substantially Mitigate US Debt in 20–30 Years
“I believe over the next 20 or 30 years it will make a huge difference. Yes. I just think in the short run, there's investments that need to be made to realize that. And I think that, you know, the way that our system deals with that is by adding to the debt.”
Disclosure
Oetting: 30% of 8VC's deployed capital goes to internally co-founded companies
“It's now 30% of what we do. All of our capital employees and, you know, 30% of it goes into companies we co-founded.”
Opinion
Oetting: Sutter Hill has done venture incubation better than anyone
“I mean, Sutter Hill has done this better than anyone.”
Opinion
Oetting: OpenGov's ~$2B exit rivals Palantir on a relative basis
“On a relative basis, like, I think having like a nearly two billion dollar exit for state and local Government software is like probably equivalent to like a Palantir type outcome or something.”
Insight
Oetting: Bonus depreciation tax incentives fail to help venture-backed startups
“Bonus depreciation is awesome. If you're Boeing, It's awesome if you're a real estate developer. And that's great, but it doesn't do anything for a startup because they're a C Corp. So it doesn't pass through their investors. They have plenty of net operating …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oetting: Trade labor robotics is much further off than software automation
“Maybe robotics will get there and there'll be, you know, a real sort of conflict between, you know, whatever robot can do electrical work and electricians. But I think that's much farther off than you know, automating low-level web design.”
Insight
Oetting: 'Build It And They Will Come' Is Bad Hardtech Strategy
“Well, like with resilience, one thing we learned, which is going to sound very obvious, but you know, early on, we took a little bit of like, if we build it, they'll come strategy. That's a bad idea. It's much better to buy or invest in a facility alongside a …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Oetting: A Human Will Be on Mars by 2050
“I would say we'll be on Mars by 20 50. I don't think we would, I mean, colonized maybe is like, depends what that means, but I think there will be a human on Mars by 20 50.”
Insight
Oetting: Reindustrialization Requires Unprecedented Government and Startup Collaboration
“And I think that it's probably the biggest reality of this reindustrialization concept, I think is that it's going to require the federal government and some state governments and startup companies to interact in a way that is probably hasn't happened in a lon…”
Insight
Oetting: Building a University Is a Startup Without Profit Upside
“Building a new university. It's like starting a super complex startup, but there's no like profit, you know, dream at the end of it.”
Insight
Oetting: Over-refining startup concepts makes them less appealing to top founders
“I think also top founders, like, they want to have They want an idea to be theirs, at least to some extent. And so if you over refine the idea, then it can become less interesting to a founder who wants to, you know, take it, you know, put their own, kind of p…”
Insight
Oetting: Combining investing and incubation fails without intentional culture and incentives
“I think the thing that's underappreciated is how much your organization has to be designed intentionally to make to balance this sort of dichotomy of starting companies and investing in them. There, there's definitely some overlap, but I think if you don't int…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Oetting: Saronic employees work in person six days a week
“They also work six days a week in person, which is pretty cool.”
Opinion
Oetting: The US has fallen behind most in shipbuilding capacity
“Figuring out how to build ships in the United States again, which is an area that we probably have, you know, the fallen behind the most. In terms of our capacity. And that's on the defense side, but also on the commercial side as well.”
Assertion Partly supported
Oetting: Drug developers ignore manufacturing efficiency due to 90%+ margins
“Part of that's because if you're successful, it's, you know, like a 99% margin business. So if you can do it, if you're really bad and it's an 89% margin, who cares?”
Insight
Oetting: Pharma companies resist new manufacturing tech to protect approved drugs
“Pharma companies are rationally incredibly averse to switching their process because they've already, you know, they make tons of investments or acquisitions across all these different sort of binary bets. You get one that works, you don't want to have to go d…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oetting: AI will drive massive 20-year productivity boom for physical businesses
“I think it's gonna be a massive productivity gain, at least for the next 20 years. If you're like, you run a construction company, or you have an HVAC business. Because right now you're paying some person 50 grand to make your website. Like that's done.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Oetting: Trump Will Boost US Manufacturing Share, But Under 13.1% GDP
“I think that the Trump administration will bring, will make a big dent on that, that will improve, but I don't think it'll hit 13.1%.”
Assertion Supported
Oetting: 8VC has co-founded over two dozen companies over past decade
“And I think Joe and I and the rest of the EPC crew have probably done over two dozen at this point over the last, you know, decade or so.”
Disclosure
Oetting: 8VC employs three to six full-time EIRs to incubate startups
“The predominant way now is that we have a group of three or six EIRs at any time that are, you know, they're full-time employees at APC, but they're working only on sort of the process of either coming to an idea or getting it ready to kind of launch.”
Disclosure
Oetting: 8VC Writes Initial Incubation Checks Between $3M and $40M
“The initial check size for us is like, it's probably three to four million on the small side and maybe 25 to 30 or 40 the bigger side.”
Assertion Supported
Oetting: Saronic acquired and is retrofitting an old shipyard
“They bought a, an old shipyard you know, and they're retrofitting that, but then they're, they have much bigger plans too.”
