Prediction Didn’t hold up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 1/5

Alex Bean: Divvy will easily top 20,000 customers by year-end

Alex Bean · Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV · May 17, 2021 · at 12:53

Divvy co-founder Alex Bean discusses customer acquisition milestones with Nathan Latka.

0:00 / 0:10exact quote · 10.5s

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“I mean, I think we'll easily top 20 and even with some growth pay on that, so we'll see, but we're going over a hundred percent, so we expect that to continue.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Divvy will easily surpass 20,000 customers by the end of 2021 while maintaining year-over-year growth exceeding 100%.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Alex Bean predicted that Divvy would easily surpass 20,000 customers by the end of 2021. According to official SEC filings and quarterly earnings reports from acquirer Bill.com (which completed its acquisition of Divvy on June 1, 2021), Divvy reached 15,500 active spending businesses as of December 31, 2021. This missed the 20,000 customer target by 4,500 (a 22.5% shortfall, which is materially outside the bounds of a round-number approximation). Divvy did not surpass 20,000 customers until the quarter ending June 30, 2022, when it reported 20,700 spending businesses.

Bill.com Q2 FY2022 Earnings Release (February 3, 2022) / Form 8-K: Divvy served 15,500 spending businesses as of December 31, 2021.
Bill.com Q4 & FY2022 Earnings Release (August 18, 2022) / Form 10-K: Divvy surpassed 20,000 customers two quarters later, reaching 20,700 spending businesses as of June 30, 2022.

Checked against

[1] bill.com [2] ftpartners.com [3] fintechfutures.com [4] bill.com [5] bill.com [6] bill.com [7] bill.com [8] bill.com

"spending businesses that used Divvy" "2021" OR "2022" Bill com Q2 FY2022 earnings release Divvy customers Divvy spend active customers December 2021 Bill.com Bill com Divvy customers December 31 2021 SEC 10 Q OR 10 K "spending businesses that used Divvy" "December 31, 2021" OR "second quarter" OR "Q2" "Bill.com Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2022" "Divvy" "spending businesses" "Bill.com Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2022" "Divvy" "spending businesses"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

Divvy

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More from Alex Bean

Disclosure

Bean: Divvy offers free software by monetizing card interchange fees

“We make money just like the banks would. And then we give you the software that Expensify and others are giving you. So we really combine it into one platform.”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 4:50 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Insight

Bean: Co-founders can be true partners without a 50/50 equity split

“And the advice I would give a non CEO co-founder is you have to understand where you sit for me. I always knew Blake was the quarterback and I was the running back to use a football reference, meaning we were partners and he, I don't think he could have done i…”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 7:44 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Assertion Supported

Bean: The vast majority of Divvy's revenue comes from interchange fees

“Almost, almost all I would say majority of that is on interchange.”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 10:30 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Insight

Bean: Underwriting skill minimizes loss rates rather than increasing revenue

“Underwriting just minimizes your losses. It doesn't actually add you. If you're really good at underwriting, it doesn't add revenue. It minimizes your loss rate.”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 10:51 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Bean: Divvy Maintains Annual Churn Rate Under 5 Percent

“Yeah, it's very fair. So which is crazy on a free product that people can walk away, right?”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 16:32 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Opinion

Bean: Brex Innovated on Credit While Divvy Innovated on Software

“Brex drove innovation on the credit side and they deserve a lot of credit for it. We drove innovation on the software side and we deserve a lot of credit for it.”

Alex Bean May 17, 2021 ▶ 18:19 Divvy Founder Sees Clear Path to $100m, 20k Customers, Most Revenue from CC fees, $1b+ in GMV

Alex Bean: Divvy will easily top 20,000 customers by year-end

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