The Argument Index
Debate potential by speaker, the highest-scored statement each year, and the companies with the most bearish calls on record. All of it clickable, all of it playable.
People
Average debate potential by speaker
All 203 guests with 5 or more scored statements, ranked. 20 more have fewer than 5, too few for a fair average. Sort or filter below.
| # | Person | Avg debate potential | Statements scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Doctorow Special Consultant, Electronic Frontier Foundation | 3.05 | 20 |
| 2 | Mike Sarraille Chief Talent Officer, Overwatch | 2.83 | 6 |
| 3 | Andrew Ng Managing General Partner, AI Fund | 2.82 | 33 |
| 4 | Vinod Khosla Founder, Khosla Ventures | 2.82 | 17 |
| 5 | François Chollet Co-Founder, Ndea | 2.81 | 43 |
| 6 | Peter Steinberger Agent Lead, OpenAI | 2.8 | 10 |
| 7 | Elon Musk CEO, Tesla and SpaceX | 2.78 | 37 |
| 8 | Chris Best Co-Founder and CEO, Substack | 2.77 | 13 |
| 9 | Parker Conrad Co-founder & CEO, Rippling | 2.76 | 17 |
| 10 | Eric Ries Founder & CEO, Long-Term Stock Exchange | 2.65 | 23 |
| 11 | Avichal Garg Managing Partner, Electric Capital | 2.62 | 16 |
| 12 | Keith Schacht Founder & CEO, The Explanation Company | 2.57 | 7 |
| 13 | Jordan Fisher AI Alignment Research Lead, Anthropic | 2.56 | 25 |
| 14 | Juan Benet Founder & CEO, Protocol Labs | 2.54 | 37 |
| 15 | Alexandr Wang Chief AI Officer, Meta Platforms | 2.53 | 17 |
| 16 | Derek Thompson Contributing Writer, The Atlantic | 2.53 | 15 |
| 17 | Spencer Skates CEO & Co-Founder, Amplitude | 2.52 | 23 |
| 18 | Ian Fisher Co-founder & Co-CEO, Poetiq | 2.5 | 12 |
| 19 | Jonathan Gill Cofounder & CEO, Backtracks | 2.5 | 8 |
| 20 | Samantha Bradshaw Assistant Professor, American University | 2.5 | 16 |
| 21 | Amjad Masad Co-founder & CEO, Replit | 2.46 | 56 |
| 22 | Aravind Srinivas Co-founder & CEO, Perplexity AI | 2.46 | 57 |
| 23 | Andrew Kortina Co-Founder, Fin | 2.45 | 11 |
| 24 | Miles Brundage Executive Director, AVERI | 2.45 | 11 |
| 25 | Aaron Levie Co-Founder & CEO, Box | 2.44 | 16 |
| 26 | Jeremy Rossmann Former Co-Founder & CEO, Make School | 2.44 | 25 |
| 27 | Austen Allred Founder & CEO, Bloom Institute of Technology | 2.44 | 25 |
| 28 | Jocko Willink Co-founder & CEO, Echelon Front | 2.44 | 16 |
| 29 | Jared Kaplan Co-founder & Chief Science Officer, Anthropic | 2.42 | 19 |
| 30 | Tom Blomfield Member of Technical Staff, Anthropic | 2.41 | 46 |
| 31 | Reid Hoffman Partner, Greylock | 2.4 | 10 |
| 32 | Bob McGrew Co-founder, Arda | 2.39 | 51 |
| 33 | Ammon Bartram Co-founder, Tabula Bio | 2.39 | 31 |
| 34 | Demis Hassabis CEO & Co-Founder, Isomorphic Labs | 2.38 | 32 |
| 35 | Mark Pincus Founder & Executive Chairman, Zynga | 2.36 | 14 |
| 36 | Elad Gil Founder, Gil Capital | 2.36 | 53 |
| 37 | Frank Lantz Founding Chair, NYU Game Center | 2.35 | 26 |
| 38 | Camille Fournier VP of Engineering, CoreWeave | 2.33 | 18 |
| 39 | Francois Chaubard Visiting Partner, Y Combinator | 2.32 | 19 |
| 40 | Paul Graham Co-founder, Y Combinator | 2.32 | 47 |
| 41 | Quan Vuong Co-founder, Physical Intelligence | 2.31 | 26 |
| 42 | Mukund Jha Co-founder & CEO, Emergent | 2.3 | 20 |
| 43 | Szymon Sidor Research Scientist, OpenAI | 2.3 | 10 |
| 44 | Sam Altman CEO, OpenAI | 2.29 | 295 |
| 45 | Max Hodak Co-founder & CEO, Science Corporation | 2.29 | 41 |
| 46 | Linda Xie Co-Founder & Managing Director, Scalar Capital | 2.27 | 11 |
| 47 | Russ Roberts Host, EconTalk | 2.25 | 12 |
| 48 | Satya Nadella Chairman and CEO, Microsoft | 2.24 | 25 |
| 49 | Dr. Werner Vogels VP & CTO, Amazon | 2.24 | 17 |
| 50 | Mr. Money Mustache Founder and Blogger, Mr. Money Mustache | 2.24 | 25 |
| 51 | Kevin Slavin Co-founder & Managing Director, Fairfield Bio | 2.24 | 17 |
| 52 | Boris Cherny Head of Claude Code, Anthropic | 2.22 | 55 |
| 53 | Olivier Pomel Co-Founder & CEO, Datadog | 2.22 | 18 |
| 54 | Chas Englander Co-founder & CEO, Model ML | 2.22 | 18 |
| 55 | Raza Habib Member of Technical Staff, Anthropic | 2.21 | 14 |
| 56 | Ankit Gupta General Partner, Y Combinator | 2.2 | 5 |
| 57 | Leonard Susskind Professor of Theoretical Physics, Stanford University | 2.2 | 30 |
| 58 | Tim Urban Co-Founder & Writer, Wait But Why | 2.2 | 5 |
| 59 | Casey Neistat Filmmaker and YouTube Creator | 2.19 | 16 |
| 60 | Mike Mignano Investor, Lightspeed | 2.18 | 11 |
| 61 | Jessica Brillhart Founder & Director, Vrai Pictures | 2.17 | 12 |
| 62 | Matt Hackett Co-founder, Oda | 2.17 | 12 |
| 63 | Jeff Bussgang General Partner, Flybridge Capital Partners | 2.17 | 6 |
| 64 | Calvin French-Owen Co-Founder & Former CTO, Segment | 2.14 | 36 |
| 65 | Dr. Fei-Fei Li Co-Founder & CEO, World Labs | 2.14 | 14 |
| 66 | David Paffenholz Co-founder & CEO, Juicebox | 2.13 | 23 |
| 67 | Nick Joseph Head of Pre-training, Anthropic | 2.13 | 38 |
| 68 | Paul Buchheit General Partner, Standard Capital | 2.13 | 47 |
| 69 | Tom Sparks Software Engineer, Y Combinator | 2.12 | 8 |
| 70 | Kirsten Green Founder & Managing Partner, Forerunner Ventures | 2.11 | 19 |
| 71 | Michael Truell Co-founder & CEO, Anysphere | 2.11 | 36 |
| 72 | Dan Hockenmaier Chief Strategy Officer, Faire | 2.11 | 18 |
| 73 | Brian Halligan Co-Founder & Executive Chairperson, HubSpot | 2.1 | 21 |
| 74 | Jensen Huang Founder and CEO, NVIDIA | 2.09 | 23 |
| 75 | Pedro Franceschi Co-Founder and CEO, Brex | 2.09 | 34 |
| 76 | Eli Schwartz SEO & Growth Advisor | 2.09 | 32 |
| 77 | Jesse Pollak Creator and Lead, Base | 2.08 | 25 |
| 78 | Jarvis Johnson Content Creator & Podcast Host, Sad Boyz | 2.08 | 13 |
| 79 | Lauren McCarthy Professor of Design Media Arts, UCLA | 2.08 | 13 |
| 80 | Jeff Dean Co-founder & CEO, Discovery Loop | 2.07 | 15 |
| 81 | David Rusenko Founder & Managing Partner, Leap Forward Ventures | 2.07 | 27 |
| 82 | Andrej Karpathy Founder, Eureka Labs | 2.06 | 16 |
| 83 | Raphael Schaad Visiting Partner, Y Combinator | 2.05 | 20 |
| 84 | Jake Heller Head of Product, CoCounsel, Thomson Reuters | 2.05 | 21 |
| 85 | Brad Flora Group Partner, Y Combinator | 2.04 | 27 |
| 86 | Chelsea Finn Co-Founder, Physical Intelligence | 2.03 | 29 |
| 87 | Rio Lu Head of Design, Cursor | 2 | 7 |
| 88 | Nicolas Dessaigne Group Partner, Y Combinator | 2 | 13 |
| 89 | Geoff Ralston Founder, Safe AI Fund | 2 | 59 |
| 90 | Ralph Goody Co-founder & CTO, TigerEye | 2 | 7 |
| 91 | Claire McDonnell Co-founder & COO, True Link Financial | 2 | 8 |
| 92 | Adam Coates AI Researcher | 2 | 12 |
| 93 | Anne Wojcicki Co-Founder & CEO, 23andMe | 2 | 12 |
| 94 | Robin Sloan Author & Media Inventor | 2 | 18 |
| 95 | Mark Zuckerberg Founder & CEO, Meta | 2 | 13 |
| 96 | Gustaf Alströmer Group Partner, Y Combinator | 1.98 | 44 |
| 97 | Mathilde Collin Co-Founder & Executive Chair, Front | 1.98 | 52 |
| 98 | Elizabeth Iorns Co-Founder & CEO, Science Exchange | 1.98 | 40 |
| 99 | David Lieb General Partner, Y Combinator | 1.94 | 34 |
| 100 | Eric Migicovsky Founder, Core Devices | 1.94 | 33 |
| 101 | David Hua Co-Founder & CEO, Meadow | 1.94 | 17 |
| 102 | David Zeevi Senior Scientist, Weizmann Institute of Science | 1.94 | 18 |
| 103 | Des Traynor Co-Founder and CSO, Intercom | 1.94 | 18 |
| 104 | Sonal Choksi Editor-in-Chief, a16z crypto | 1.94 | 18 |
| 105 | Tyler Bosmeny General Partner, Y Combinator | 1.93 | 14 |
| 106 | Max Junestrand Co-founder and CEO, Legora | 1.92 | 37 |
| 107 | Holly Liu Co-Founder, Kabam | 1.92 | 12 |
| 108 | Murray Shanahan Principal Scientist, Google DeepMind | 1.92 | 12 |
| 109 | Tikhon Bernstam Managing Partner, Uncommon Capital | 1.91 | 23 |
| 110 | Porter Braswell Founder & CEO, 2045 Studio | 1.91 | 22 |
| 111 | Iba Masood Co-founder & CEO, Tara AI | 1.9 | 10 |
| 112 | Dr. Rosalind Watts Founder, ACER Integration | 1.9 | 31 |
| 113 | Bryant Chou Cofounder, Webflow and Ploy | 1.88 | 17 |
| 114 | Pete Koomen General Partner, Y Combinator | 1.88 | 51 |
| 115 | James Hawkins Co-Founder and Co-CEO, PostHog | 1.88 | 16 |
| 116 | Courtland Allen Founder and Podcast Host, Indie Hackers | 1.88 | 25 |
| 117 | Vivek Ravisankar Co-founder and CEO, HackerRank | 1.88 | 26 |
| 118 | Jay Reno CEO & Founder, Feather | 1.86 | 14 |
| 119 | Mike Knoop Co-Founder & CEO, Ndea | 1.86 | 21 |
| 120 | Peter Reinhardt Co-founder and CEO, Charm Industrial | 1.86 | 35 |
| 121 | Alex Blumberg Co-founder & CEO, DaisyChain Energy | 1.86 | 14 |
| 122 | Dylan Field Co-founder and CEO, Figma | 1.85 | 40 |
| 123 | Marques Brownlee Creator & Host, MKBHD | 1.85 | 20 |
| 124 | Avni Patel Thompson Founder & CEO, The Commons Company | 1.85 | 27 |
| 125 | Patrick Collison Co-founder & CEO, Stripe | 1.85 | 27 |
| 126 | Kevin Hale Former Partner, Y Combinator | 1.84 | 32 |
| 127 | Carolynn Levy Managing Director, Legal, Y Combinator | 1.84 | 25 |
| 128 | Greg Brockman President & Co-founder, OpenAI | 1.84 | 25 |
| 129 | Tim Hwang Global Public Policy Lead, Google | 1.83 | 24 |
| 130 | Wojciech Zaremba Co-founder & Scientist, OpenAI | 1.83 | 18 |
| 131 | Carl Pei Founder & CEO, Nothing | 1.82 | 11 |
| 132 | Andy Bromberg Chairman, Eco | 1.81 | 21 |
| 133 | Scott Aaronson Chair of Computer Science, UT Austin | 1.79 | 14 |
| 134 | Amber Atherton Partner, Patron | 1.78 | 9 |
| 135 | Karine Malata Co-Founder & CEO, Variance | 1.77 | 13 |
| 136 | Vidit Aatrey Co-founder and CEO, Meesho | 1.77 | 30 |
| 137 | Stuart (Stu) Researcher, Stanford & Cursor | 1.75 | 8 |
| 138 | Wade Foster Co-founder & CEO, Zapier | 1.75 | 20 |
| 139 | Morgan DeBaun Founder and CEO, Blavity Inc. | 1.75 | 12 |
| 140 | Kirsty Nathoo Partner Emerita, Y Combinator | 1.75 | 8 |
| 141 | Jason Kilar Co-founder & CEO, Hubcap, Inc. | 1.75 | 12 |
| 142 | Suhail Doshi Founder & CEO, Playground | 1.73 | 22 |
| 143 | Luís Batalha Co-founder & CPO, Amplemarket | 1.73 | 11 |
| 144 | Aadit Palicha Co-Founder and CEO, Zepto | 1.71 | 24 |
| 145 | Craig Cannon DevRel and Marketing, Supabase | 1.71 | 28 |
| 146 | Diego Saez-Gil Co-Founder and CEO, Pachama | 1.7 | 23 |
| 147 | Katie Dill Head of Design, Stripe | 1.69 | 39 |
| 148 | Kalam Dennis Co-Founder, AptDeco | 1.69 | 16 |
| 149 | John Preskill Professor of Theoretical Physics, Caltech | 1.69 | 35 |
| 150 | Emily Weiss Founder and Executive Chairwoman, Glossier | 1.69 | 13 |
| 151 | Jessica Livingston Co-founder, Y Combinator | 1.68 | 50 |
| 152 | Doug Eck Senior Research Director, Google DeepMind | 1.68 | 22 |
| 153 | Laks Srini Chief Technology Officer, Flyhomes | 1.67 | 15 |
| 154 | Ryan Hoover Founder and General Partner, Weekend Fund | 1.67 | 45 |
| 155 | Ryan Petersen Founder & CEO, Flexport | 1.67 | 48 |
| 156 | João Batalha Co-Founder & CEO, Amplemarket | 1.67 | 12 |
| 157 | Pejman Nozad Founding Managing Partner, Pear VC | 1.67 | 6 |
| 158 | Aaron Epstein General Partner, Y Combinator | 1.65 | 17 |
| 159 | Kat Manalac Partner, Convective Capital | 1.65 | 37 |
| 160 | Simon Benjamin Professor of Quantum Technologies, University of Oxford | 1.65 | 26 |
| 161 | Sean Mitchell Co-Founder and CEO, Ryse | 1.65 | 20 |
| 162 | Ozan Bilgen | 1.64 | 14 |
| 163 | Karri Saarinen Co-Founder & CEO, Linear | 1.64 | 14 |
| 164 | Rujul Zaparde Co-founder & CEO, Zip | 1.64 | 14 |
| 165 | Vincent Ning CEO & Co-founder, Nabis | 1.64 | 14 |
| 166 | Liz Wessel Partner, First Round Capital | 1.64 | 14 |
| 167 | Laura Behrens Wu Founder & CEO, Shippo | 1.64 | 22 |
| 168 | Brett Hagler Co-Founder & Board Member, New Story | 1.64 | 14 |
| 169 | Sarah Nahm Board Member, All Raise | 1.63 | 19 |
| 170 | Michael Babineau Co-founder & CEO, Second Measure | 1.62 | 13 |
| 171 | Joan Lasenby Professor of Image and Signal Analysis, University of Cambridge | 1.62 | 16 |
| 172 | Jennifer Kim Startup Advisor | 1.62 | 8 |
| 173 | Ooshma Garg Former Founder & CEO, Gobble | 1.61 | 23 |
| 174 | Andy Lapsa Co-founder & CEO, Stoke Space | 1.6 | 10 |
| 175 | Matt Cutts Former Administrator, U.S. Digital Service | 1.6 | 15 |
| 176 | Madhav Jha Co-founder & CTO, Emergent | 1.57 | 7 |
| 177 | Kat Mignalek Partner, Convective Capital | 1.56 | 16 |
| 178 | Tracy Young Co-founder & CEO, TigerEye | 1.56 | 16 |
| 179 | Patrick Moberg Former Co-founder & CEO, Playdots | 1.56 | 16 |
| 180 | Diane Greene Board Director, Stripe | 1.55 | 11 |
| 181 | Reham Fagiri Co-founder, AptDeco | 1.54 | 13 |
| 182 | Shola Akinlade Co-founder and CEO, Paystack | 1.5 | 24 |
| 183 | Carola Schönlieb Applied Mathematician, University of Cambridge | 1.5 | 8 |
| 184 | Leah Culver Cofounder & CTO, Breaker | 1.5 | 8 |
| 185 | Ed Baker Former Head of Growth, Uber | 1.5 | 12 |
| 186 | Tony Xu Co-Founder and CEO, DoorDash | 1.47 | 17 |
| 187 | Simone Giertz Founder & Product Designer, Yetch Studio | 1.47 | 17 |
| 188 | Brian Donohue CEO & Co-owner, Instapaper | 1.46 | 13 |
| 189 | Karn Saroya CEO & Co-founder, Cover | 1.45 | 22 |
| 190 | Sam Chaudhary Co-founder & CEO, ClassDojo | 1.44 | 18 |
| 191 | Alexandria Lafci Founder & Managing Partner, Hometeam Ventures | 1.43 | 7 |
| 192 | Michelle Kuo Chief Curator at Large, MoMA | 1.42 | 26 |
| 193 | Kor Adana Screenwriter & Co-Executive Producer | 1.41 | 17 |
| 194 | Domonique Fines Venture Scout, Zeal Capital Partners | 1.4 | 5 |
| 195 | Nick Winter SVP, Frontier Lab Safety, Gray Swan | 1.4 | 5 |
| 196 | Rana Adhikari Professor of Physics, Caltech | 1.28 | 18 |
| 197 | Ryan Ridley Writer | 1.27 | 15 |
| 198 | Camille Ricketts Partner & Head of Marketing, XYZ Venture Capital | 1.25 | 12 |
| 199 | Drew Houston Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Dropbox | 1.25 | 12 |
| 200 | Ed McManus Technical Advisor, Silicon Valley | 1.21 | 14 |
| 201 | Josh Reeves Co-Founder and CEO, Gusto | 1.18 | 11 |
| 202 | Cindy Mi Founder & CEO, VIPKid | 1.08 | 13 |
| 203 | Karen X. Cheng Founder & Creative Director, KarenXCheng Inc. | 1 | 5 |
Companies
The most bearish calls
Debate potential is an AI score of how much a statement invites disagreement. Bearish counts tally what was said about a company on the show; they describe the conversation, not the company. Every count opens to the exact tape. full disclaimer →
All 283 companies, funds and products with at least one bearish claim on the record.
| Company | Bearish statements | Of which 4–5 |
|---|---|---|
| Y Combinator fund | 102 ↓ | 7 |
| Google company | 36 ↓ | 5 |
| Meta company | 21 ↓ | 3 |
| Twitter company | 15 ↓ | 2 |
| OpenAI company | 14 ↓ | 3 |
| Amazon company | 12 ↓ | — |
| YouTube company | 8 ↓ | — |
| Anthropic company | 8 ↓ | 2 |
| Triplebyte company | 7 ↓ | — |
| ChatGPT product | 7 ↓ | — |
| Apple company | 7 ↓ | 1 |
| Stripe company | 6 ↓ | — |
| Segment company | 6 ↓ | — |
| Cursor product | 6 ↓ | — |
| Physical Intelligence company | 5 ↓ | — |
| Gmail product | 5 ↓ | — |
| Beme company | 5 ↓ | — |
| Protocol Labs company | 4 ↓ | — |
| Product Hunt company | 4 ↓ | — |
| Perplexity company | 4 ↓ | 1 |
| Microsoft company | 4 ↓ | 1 |
| Jopwell company | 4 ↓ | — |
| AptDeco company | 4 ↓ | — |
| Uber company | 3 ↓ | — |
| TikTok product | 3 ↓ | — |
| Model Context Protocol product | 3 ↓ | — |
| Mixpanel company | 3 ↓ | — |
| Legora company | 3 ↓ | — |
| HackerRank company | 3 ↓ | — |
| Claude Code product | 3 ↓ | — |
| Boeing company | 3 ↓ | 2 |
| Airbnb company | 3 ↓ | — |
| Zepto company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Twilio company | 2 ↓ | — |
| SpaceX company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Sora product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Slack company | 2 ↓ | — |
| SigNoz company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Shippo company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Sephora company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Second Measure company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Replit company | 2 ↓ | — |
| React product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Poppy company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Pocket product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Palantir company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Nothing company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Monzo company | 2 ↓ | — |
| MixerLabs company | 2 ↓ | 1 |
| Lovable company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Lockheed Martin company | 2 ↓ | 1 |
| LinkedIn company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Justin.tv company | 2 ↓ | — |
| iPhone product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Instapaper product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Instacart company | 2 ↓ | — |
| HubSpot company | 2 ↓ | — |
| GPT 3 product | 2 ↓ | — |
| Glossier company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Feather company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Cover company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Clever company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Casetext company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Bump company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Blue Apron company | 2 ↓ | — |
| AngelList company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Amplitude company | 2 ↓ | 1 |
| Amazon Web Services company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Andreessen Horowitz fund | 2 ↓ | — |
| 23andMe company | 2 ↓ | — |
| Zume company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Zipcar company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Zip2 company | 1 ↓ | — |
| ZeroDown company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Zero To One product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Zenefits company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Zapier company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Yahoo company | 1 ↓ | — |
| xAI company | 1 ↓ | — |
| WhatsApp product | 1 ↓ | — |
| WeWork company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Weebly company | 1 ↓ | — |
| WeChat product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Web Pack product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Wayfair company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Warby Parker company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Walmart company | 1 ↓ | — |
| VS Code product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Volley company | 1 ↓ | — |
| VMware company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Visual Studio product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Vibeflow product | 1 ↓ | — |
| VB Six product | 1 ↓ | — |
| User Interviews company | 1 ↓ | — |
| UPort product | 1 ↓ | — |
| UnReal Milk company | 1 ↓ | — |
| University Of Phoenix company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Twitter Premium product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Twitch company | 1 ↓ | — |
| TuneIn company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Toshiba company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Threes product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Theranos company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Tesla company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Tencent company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Techstars fund | 1 ↓ | — |
| TechCrunch company | 1 ↓ | — |
| TCP/IP product | 1 ↓ | — |
| TARA AI company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Substack company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Stoke Space company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Starlink product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Spotify company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Spectacles product | 1 ↓ | — |
| SoundCloud company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Slashy product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Siemens company | 1 ↓ | — |
| SharePoint product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Science Exchange company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Scale AI company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Salesforce company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Ruby product | 1 ↓ | — |
| RSA company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Rolls Royce company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Rick And Morty product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Rezi company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Replit Agent product | 1 ↓ | — |
| RED Digital Cinema company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Readability product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Quick Draw product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Python product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Prompt Armor company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Project Magenta product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Procter & Gamble company | 1 ↓ | — |
| PowerPoint product | 1 ↓ | — |
| PostHog company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Polaroid company | 1 ↓ | — |
| PlanGrid company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Pinterest company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Photo Roll product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Philip Morris International company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Perfect Audience company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Pepsi product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Pebble company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Pearson company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Paystack company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Patriot Missile Interceptor product | 1 ↓ | — |
| PalmPilot product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Orkut product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Optimizely company | 1 ↓ | — |
| OpenEvidence company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| OpenAI O1 product | 1 ↓ | — |
| OpenAI Codex product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Oboe product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Notion company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Nothing Ear (1) product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Nintendo company | 1 ↓ | — |
| New Story company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Mystery Science company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Millennial Media company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Michelson Laser Interferometers product | 1 ↓ | — |
| MetaMask product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Menugen company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Meetup company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Meesho company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Meerkat company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Medium company | 1 ↓ | — |
| MCP Server product | 1 ↓ | — |
| McKinsey And Company company | 1 ↓ | — |
| McGraw company | 1 ↓ | — |
| McDonald's company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Manifold company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Make School company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Magic Leap company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Magenta product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Lyft company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Linux product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Linear company | 1 ↓ | — |
| LG G8 product | 1 ↓ | — |
| LG company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Lever company | 1 ↓ | — |
| League Of Legends product | 1 ↓ | — |
| LangChain company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Lambda School company | 1 ↓ | — |
| LAMA product | 1 ↓ | — |
| KISSmetrics company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Kickstarter company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Khosla Ventures fund | 1 ↓ | — |
| Juicero company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Jawbone company | 1 ↓ | — |
| JavaScript product | 1 ↓ | — |
| ITunes product | 1 ↓ | — |
| IPFS product | 1 ↓ | — |
| IOS product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Interview Street company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Intercom company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Instagram product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Inbox By Gmail product | 1 ↓ | — |
| IKEA company | 1 ↓ | — |
| IBM company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Hugging Face company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Houghton Mifflin company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Harvey company | 1 ↓ | 1 |
| Gusto company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Grok product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Granola company | 1 ↓ | — |
| GPT V product | 1 ↓ | — |
| GPT Store product | 1 ↓ | — |
| GPT 4o product | 1 ↓ | — |
| GPT 4.5 product | 1 ↓ | — |
| GPT 4 product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Reader product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Magenta product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Gemini product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Docs product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Cloud product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Analytics product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Google Ads product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Goldman Sachs company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Goldbely company | 1 ↓ | — |
| GiveItOneHundred company | 1 ↓ | — |
| GitHub company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Git product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Gimlet Media company | 1 ↓ | — |
| General Electric company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Gemini product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Gary's List product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Front company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Foxconn company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Founders Fund fund | 1 ↓ | — |
| Fortnite product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Figma company | 1 ↓ | — |
| FedMart company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Fast company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Expedia company | 1 ↓ | — |
| EMC company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Electric Capital fund | 1 ↓ | — |
| Dota product | 1 ↓ | — |
| DoorDash company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Discord company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Devin product | 1 ↓ | — |
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| Cleveland Clinic company | 1 ↓ | — |
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| Claude In Chrome MCP product | 1 ↓ | 1 |
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| ClassDojo company | 1 ↓ | — |
| Civic company | 1 ↓ | — |
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| Bing Chat product | 1 ↓ | 1 |
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| Backtracks company | 1 ↓ | — |
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| ATM product | 1 ↓ | — |
| Atari Games company | 1 ↓ | — |
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| Android product | 1 ↓ | — |
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| Abstraction Reasoning Corpus product | 1 ↓ | — |
| 2048 product | 1 ↓ | — |
Highest debate potential, by year
2026
Chollet: AGI Codebase Will Be Under 10,000 Lines on 1980s Compute
“I do believe that, you know, when you create a GI retrospectively, it will turn out that it's a code base that's less than 10,000 lines of code. And that if you had known about it back in the 19 eighties, you could have done a GI back then using the computer r…”
2025
Conrad: David Sacks' PR campaign drove Zenefits into the ground
“David really sort of He hired a sort of a comms person that he works with a lot, this guy named Lanny Davis, and they just focused on like attacking me, like over and over and over again for like six months, and it became this huge thing. And David, well, he w…”
2024
Altman: AI progress could compound over next nine years toward superintelligence
“I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding, and the rate of progress we've made Over the last three years, continuous for the next three, or six, or nine, or whatever. You know, nine years would be, like, 3500 days, or whatever. If we …”
Tan: AGI is effectively already here for most knowledge worker tasks
“Like you could make a strong case that AGI is basically already here. The majority of the tasks that, you know, 98% of knowledge workers do day-to-day it is now possible for a software engineer probably sitting in front of cursor, to write something that gets …”
2023
Caldwell: Ex-Google executives join early startups because they underperformed or misunderstood reality
“What usually happens is they either are, either they joined your startup because they're, they weren't doing well. I'm trying to think of a nice way to say it. Either there's a reason they joined your startup and left Google, or they had expectations that you …”
Seibel: Building in Austin, Seattle, or New York is settling
“It's really easy to say, well, you know, I can be in the game in Austin. I can be in the game in Seattle. There are investors there. There are people there. I can be in the game in New York. And I wish that we were more honest that like, yeah, you can play bas…”
2022
2019
Khosla: 90% of VCs add no value, 70% add negative value
“I think, 90% of investors add no value. In my assessment, 70% of investors add negative value to a company.”
Khosla: Process managers prevent startups from becoming truly great companies
“And so, if you have great managers, good process people, they will work against allowing the company to become great. They'll take, take a great idea and turn it into a good one, And execute a decent idea at lower risk that's more reasonable, more sensible.”
2018
Kortina: There is nothing morally wrong with doing heroin all day
“I don't want to go, like, sit around and do heroin all day. Like, I'm sure that would be, like, really fun, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. But it would be very tough for me to, like, not feel bad about that, even though I don't think it's …”
2017
2016
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Musk: OpenAI was founded to prevent concentration of advanced AI
“The reason that obviously you mean the rest of the team you know, created open AI was to help
[783] Elon Musk: with the democracy, help, help spread out AI technology
[787] Elon Musk: so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.”