why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
Patel Thompson rejected pivoting Poppy into a profitable, high-priced boutique agency
“There was also an option to say, let's just make this a nice high-end tech-enabled agency, and folks were like, why didn't you just raise prices and do all that? I could have, I hundred percent could have, and turned it into a nice kind of like side business o…”
Insight
Childcare platforms struggle with tight margins between parent budgets and caregiver wages
“If you know the category that I'm working within is child care it's already an inherently margin-challenged kind of category. So what I mean by that is, like, what parents are willing and able to pay for this kind of work, and then what caregivers need to make…”
Opinion
Patel Thompson argues Poppy was not a failure despite lacking venture scale
“I think you could take a look and say Poppy was a failure. I think in some lenses, like that's the narrative, but I sort of pushed back on that because I don't think Poppy was a failure. Poppy set out to do and did the thing. Especially for thousands of parent…”
Insight
Scaling caregiving platforms degrades the personal relationship into generic gig work
“At a bigger scale, it turns into yet another kind of gig economy job, which isn't good or bad, but it just, you know, has an implication when we're looking at, is that what that labor pool wants to do is yet another kind of gig job. And so that just changed th…”
What-if
Pivoting Poppy would have required cutting the team six months earlier
“I think the truth of the matter is, is if we had wanted to pivot, we probably should have done that, you know, six months prior. If I was going to cut the team and leave a good chunk of money in the in the bank to be able to do that I probably needed more time…”
Insight
Patel Thompson shut down Poppy quickly to conserve remaining runway for severance
“Every month that you continue to kind of persist, you're burning money, right? And for me, it didn't feel responsible to continue to do that. Instead, could I repurpose that and say, Hey, we're going to call it as quickly as possible, conserve a little bit of …”
Disclosure
Patel Thompson shared exact bank balances and default dates with all employees
“Even towards the end, our investor update went to everybody. From the most junior folks to my COO I believe in transparency. I believe in educating people on what do the numbers mean. So, Even that very last investor update, every single person saw exactly how…”
Insight
Seibel: On-demand marketplace models require easily replaceable labor with common skills
“The Uber model only works because there's a whole bunch of basically replaceable people with a common skill. Well, it turns out the people who've got the skills to watch infants and make parents comfortable with that tend to have nanny jobs where they work lot…”
Insight
Thompson: Modern parents lack reliable support networks, not just babysitters
“As I started to hear that, I realized that what people weren't talking about was just needing a sitter or nanny. What they were missing was this idea of their village. And so everyone says it takes a village to raise a child, but you know, all of us are moving…”
Insight
Thompson: Founders can validate a startup's viability within a four-week test
“And so if you use the construct of a four week test inside of four weeks, you can know whether you have something or if you don't.”
Insight
Thompson: Childcare support networks require vetting, matching, and scheduling
“And so for me, it was that if a village is a function of, you know, someone that you trust is a fit for your family from like a values standpoint and is there when you need them to be could you break it down from technology, from a vetting mechanism, a matchin…”
Insight
Thompson: Parents need a replacement village, not just sitter matchmaking
“And as I started talking to different people, I realized that the thing that they didn't need was a parent connecting to a sitter. The thing that wasn't being said was that we were all missing our village.”
Insight
Patel Thompson: Raising startup capital merely buys time to run experiments
“The money is not something to be celebrating. It was more relief because the money buys us time and time to run those valuable kind of experiments and to be able to figure out the next thing.”
Disclosure
Patel Thompson stretched Poppy's two million dollar funding across three years
“I was able to then take the little bit over two million that we raised. And have that last over, I think, like three years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Poppy's steady monthly growth missed high-growth venture capital marketplace expectations
“Throughout, you know, the growth of poppy, we've always been solid. Like we've always been solid and growing. But to the point of like maybe five to 10%, and that's not bad. I mean, in fact, like for some of these kind of marketplaces, that's really good. It w…”
Disclosure
Patel Thompson shut down Poppy due to unscalable unit economics
“Recently decided that looking at all of the things the economics and everything that it wasn't a viable, scalable proposition. And so made the hard decision to shut it down in December”
Disclosure
Thompson and her spouse use a strict alternating primary parent schedule
“One is you have to be very specific about boundaries. And what that means for me is there's certain days that I'm on and I have to be a hundred percent founder. I can't think about, you know, it sounds sort of harsh, but I can't think about my kids and like al…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thompson built Poppy's initial prototype with Squarespace, Typeform, Excel, and SMS
“Typeform, like Squarespace, I can do a four week trial, Typeform do signups and things like that. I can use Excel as a database. I can use a Google Calendar as a scheduler and SMS trying to connect it all.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thompson validated Poppy by emailing 15 parents and getting four bookings
“So literally sent an email to the 15 parents and just said, Hey, I've got these three amazing people. If you need them, just text this phone number. And I gave them a phone number as my phone number. And that day got our first booking and that week I got four.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Poppy's initial MVP was built on Squarespace, Typeform, Stripe, and Excel
“I had a landing page on Squarespace, signups and feedback forms were done through Typeform, Stripe handled the payments, I did scheduling via Google Calendar, communication with SMS, and my database was Excel.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Poppy grew weekly bookings from four to ten across four weeks
“That day, I got my first booking, and that week, I got my first four. Every single week, I just set the goal to see if I could just grow 10 or 20%. Well, that next week, instead of just five, I hit six. The week after seven, the week after 10, I was blowing pa…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thompson: Poppy serves thousands of families in Seattle
“We're serving thousands of families in Seattle right now, and it's an incredible thing to be a part of, especially because Poppy almost didn't exist.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Poppy raised over $2 million seed round after YC Demo Day
“We closed our seed round shortly after demo day, a little bit over two million dollars, and we came back to Seattle in May.”
Disclosure
Poppy founder Avni Patel Thompson is not a programmer
“I wasn't then, and I'm not now, a programmer.”