The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone François Chollet (4)Elon Musk (4)Garry Tan (3)Demis Hassabis (3)Aravind Srinivas (3)Amjad Masad (3)Max Hodak (2)John Preskill (2)Jensen Huang (2)Sam Altman (1)Robin Sloan (1)Rio Lu (1)
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Next up (18)
109 days left 2026-12-31
318 days left 2027-07-28
364 days left 2027-09-12
Masad: Developers will reliably run 1,000 concurrent AI agents within two years
“Or plus, which I assume we're going to get to in the next couple of years, you can really spin up a thousand agents, give them a lot, thousand problems, and reliably be confident that like, 95% of them is going to work.”
541 days left 2028-03-07
594 days left 2028-04-29
611 days left 2028-05-16
622 days left 2028-05-27
Tan: $100K AI token workloads will drop to $200 in two years
“What you spend a 100,000 or a million dollars a year on now, it will be commonplace like in, in two years, right? It'll, it won't cost a 100,000 in a year. It'll cost 10,000. And the year after that, it'll be like a couple hundred bucks, right? And everyone wi…”
651 days left 2028-06-25
Tan: AI token compute costs will drop drastically within two years
“I mean, basically because the frontier models are that good, like, you know, I think that in two years, like, That'll be a 100,000 and, you know, down to 10,000 and a thousand. I mean, basically these orders of magnitude are about to happen.”
703 days left 2028-08-16
3465 days left 2036-03-09
Hodak: BCIs will achieve native 20/20 vision and color within 10 years
“I mean, I do think that you can get to close to native acuity, so kind of like your normal twenty-twenty vision. We're definitely not there yet, but I see a path to get there and be able to get Color and fill in a lot of the field of view. To be clear that it'…”
3516 days left 2036-04-29
3604 days left 2036-07-26
10506 days left 2055-06-19
10788 days left 2056-03-27
12163 days left 2060-01-01
Sloan predicts Facebook updates and Instagram photos will be gone by 2050
“I would not bet against everything that we're pouring into kind of the vast digital box, you know, like everything, the Facebook updates, the Instagram photos, all of it basically being gone in 2060, 20, 50. Like, I hope that's not the case, and I mean, it see…”
18093 days left 2076-03-27
33239 days left 2117-09-15
Closed calls (36) the full record →
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”
Stuart: Single NVLink domains will soon scale to hundreds of GPUs
“And you also have a scale of architectures like NBL-L-Seventy-Two, which packs 72 GPUs inside a single NVLink domain, and soon this is going to extend to hundreds of GPUs.”
Srinivas: Phone Makers Will Offer Multiple AI Search Alternatives
“The phone makers will start offering all of them as alternatives. It's not going to be like a locked-in default search option.”
Kaplan: AI training and inference will see 3x-10x yearly efficiency gains
“I think that over time, as AI becomes more and more widespread, I think that we're going to really drive down the cost of inference and training dramatically from where we are right now. Sort of, three X to 10 X gains algorithmically, and in sort of scaling up…”
Ravisankar: Most developers will learn to code before driving by 2028
“If you just extrapolate the trend line, I think this will be two and four or three and four developers will learn to code before they drive in the next decade or so.”
Hassabis: Frontier model capabilities reach tiny edge models within 6-12 months
“But I think for now there's the assumption we make is that, you know, a year later after one of our leading, you know, pro models or frontier models goes out half a year later, you'll have them in the,
The really tiny, almost edge models.”
Blomfield: Major AI coding tools will soon auto-ingest error logs
“It's so powerful that pretty soon I actually expect all the major coding tools to be able to ingest these errors
Without humans having to copy paste.
If you think about it, our value being the copy paste machine is, is kind of weird, right?
We're like, we're l…”
Mukund Jha: Hundreds of AI agents will collaborate on single tasks by year-end
“I think by end of the year you'll have, you know, agents which are running for hours. And like maybe hundreds of agents collaborating on the single task.”
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Musk: Neuralink will do first human vision implants in 6-12 months
“And then I think in the next six to 12 months, we'll be doing our first implants for vision, where even if somebody's completely blind we can write directly to the visual cortex.”
Best: Newsletters will replace social feeds for news within five years
“I think the answer is it won't replace the social network aspect of it. The thing that Facebook and the social networks are great at is having the relationship between you and like the people, you know, in real life... The part of it that should absolutely be …”
Best: Podcast ad rates per download will drop significantly
“I suspect as I kind of hinted before that there's a lot of podcast advertising that's in a little bit of like an emperor's new clothes state where like too much is it's overpriced. And because there's just not metrics there, it's just like waiting for like som…”
Johnson: TikTok will produce more traditional, mainstream creators
“I think that TikTok is going to produce some people some more traditional, quote unquote traditional creators.”
Akinlade in 2018: Nigeria's population will exceed the US in five years
“Like in the next five years, I think Nigeria is going to be even more than the US.”
Schwartz: Google will eventually understand images directly without alt text
“Google eventually will figure out what images are, and they're getting closer to figuring out what images are.”
Benjamin: Quantum hardware will soon reach behaviors impossible to classically simulate
“We are now getting on the verge of getting machines that will behave in ways that cannot be predicted, cannot be simulated. We'll be in the regime where we're genuinely discovering how the machine behaves by having one.”
Garg: The biggest crypto winners will likely re-centralize in Silicon Valley
“I think you could have the inspiration for ideas come from underserved markets, but I wouldn't be surprised if the really big winners in crypto actually sort of re-centralize around Silicon Valley.”
Xie: Crypto adoption will take off in unbanked and inflationary countries first
“I think it's gonna be in countries where people don't have bank accounts primarily, and they now need a method of actually storing their own funds or countries where the currency is just getting inflated away, and so the currency is not valuable.”
Bromberg: Startup liquidity timelines will revert to moving faster again
“Certainly in the last few years we've seen, ah, the speed to liquidity go down, ah, we think that's gonna revert back and we're gonna see that, that come faster again.”
Bromberg: Crypto and Venture Capital Will See Much More Lobbying
“I think, especially given the attention given to regulation in the space, we will see way more lobbying happening in crypto and in venture capital over the coming years.”
Bromberg: Regulators Will Classify Almost All Token Sales as Securities
“I think that what will happen is that the regulators are going to say, these are almost all securities. You can't just sell these tokens to anyone on the public markets.”
Sparks: Smart scales will provide personalized dietary advice within five years
“Five years, we'll probably have a scale that'll be like, oh, you know, should probably cut out eating this, or you should eat more of this, or something like that. I think we'll see some pretty interesting consumer technologies come out of, you know, weird pot…”
Greene: Enterprise tech will consolidate into four clouds immune to startup disruption
“Everything's going to be in just a few, maybe four clouds or so, you know, there's not going to be that many of them, because like, we spend about ten billion a year in infrastructure, and so it's not going to Get disrupted by a startup, unless they invent qua…”
Benet: Decentralized storage nodes will beat AWS on unit economics
“Our bet there is that yes, that there's a whole bunch of places and cases where Certain individuals or groups in the world have access to either really cheap storage or storage that's positioned well in the network that is kind of like, you know, somewhere bet…”