Elon Musk explains his timeline for multiplanetary civilization to Garry Tan at Y Combinator.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure
“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Musk: There is a 10% to 20% chance AI causes annihilation
“I think it most likely will be a good outcome. I guess I'd sort of agree with Jeff Hinton that maybe it's a 10 to 20% chance of annihilation. But look on the bright side, that's 80 to 90% probability of a great outcome.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Disclosure
Musk: OpenAI was founded to prevent concentration of advanced AI
“The reason that obviously you mean the rest of the team you know, created open AI was to help
[783] Elon Musk: with the democracy, help, help spread out AI technology
[787] Elon Musk: so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.”
Opinion
Musk: Government efficiency work is a side quest compared to AI
“I did sort of feel a bit like, you know, when I was in D.C. Taking a lot of flack for, like, getting rid of waste and fraud, which was an interesting side quest as side quests go. But Got to get back to the main quest. Yeah, I gotta get back to the main quest …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber all other robots combined tenfold
“There's gonna be so many humanoid robots, and robots of all sizes and shapes, but my prediction is that there will be more humanoid robots by far than all other robots combined, by maybe an order of magnitude, like a big difference.”