The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,759 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 49 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chollet: AGI Codebase Will Be Under 10,000 Lines on 1980s Compute
“I do believe that, you know, when you create a GI retrospectively, it will turn out that it's a code base that's less than 10,000 lines of code. And that if you had known about it back in the 19 eighties, you could have done a GI back then using the computer r…”
Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure
“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Tom Blomfield says today's software engineering jobs will vanish within 10 years
“But the conclusion of all of that, I think, is that software engineering jobs of today, I think, will not exist in five or 10 years.”
Conrad: David Sacks' PR campaign drove Zenefits into the ground
“David really sort of He hired a sort of a comms person that he works with a lot, this guy named Lanny Davis, and they just focused on like attacking me, like over and over and over again for like six months, and it became this huge thing. And David, well, he w…”
Khosla: 90% of VCs add no value, 70% add negative value
“I think, 90% of investors add no value. In my assessment, 70% of investors add negative value to a company.”
Wang: Meta Agent Swarms Outperform Teams of 100 Engineers
“Like, I think we've seen, internally in meta cases where if you can develop the right agentic loop and you have the right eval or the right metric for the agents to optimize, you can have a swarm of agents accomplish more than, like, a team of a hundred engine…”
Altman: Startups founded today will produce future trillionaires
“I bet there's some future trillionaires sitting in this room, and I would bet that the startups created today will be much more valuable, much more impactful than startups of the past”
Altman: OpenAI made big mistakes in Hugging Face incident, an alignment failure
“Here are the mistakes that OpenAI made, and we did make some big ones, of course, but these systems have gotten incredibly capable. So I think it's an alignment failure. I think it's a security failure. I think it's like a very serious thing, even though it's,…”
Cherny: Anthropic Can No Longer Demonstrate Prompt Injection on Opus 5
“So essentially, if you combine a well-aligned model, so this is, like, essentially three years of research into alignment, With a prompt injection classifier, which we run for all traffic, and what this is doing is it's based on Chrysola's mechanistic interpre…”
Hassabis predicts AGI will arrive around 2030
“Depending on what your AGI timeline is, You know, mine's like, 20, 30 or something like this.”
Heller: AI startups face mass extinction as enterprise pilots fail to convert
“A lot of those pilots are not converting to real revenue, and there's going to be a mass extinction event as a lot of pilot revenue, it's like, instead of ARR, it's like PRR, like Pilot Recurring Revenue, or something like that, or not even recurring, just Pil…”
Altman predicts humanity will achieve unimaginable superintelligence within 20 years
“Look, there, there's a lot you know, in 10 or 20 years, unless something goes hugely wrong, we'll have, like, unimaginable super intelligence, and I'm very excited to see how that goes.”
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Musk: There is a 10% to 20% chance AI causes annihilation
“I think it most likely will be a good outcome. I guess I'd sort of agree with Jeff Hinton that maybe it's a 10 to 20% chance of annihilation. But look on the bright side, that's 80 to 90% probability of a great outcome.”
Altman: AI progress could compound over next nine years toward superintelligence
“I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding, and the rate of progress we've made Over the last three years, continuous for the next three, or six, or nine, or whatever. You know, nine years would be, like, 3500 days, or whatever. If we …”
Kortina: There is nothing morally wrong with doing heroin all day
“I don't want to go, like, sit around and do heroin all day. Like, I'm sure that would be, like, really fun, and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. But it would be very tough for me to, like, not feel bad about that, even though I don't think it's …”
Altman: Building AGI at OpenAI outweighs all past human innovation combined
“If this one thing works, like, if we do actually build AGI at OpenAI, that is more important than all of the innovation sum total in humanity so far. So, clearly not has all the innovation happened.”
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Musk: OpenAI was founded to prevent concentration of advanced AI
“The reason that obviously you mean the rest of the team you know, created open AI was to help
[783] Elon Musk: with the democracy, help, help spread out AI technology
[787] Elon Musk: so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.”
Scholl: Boeing and Lockheed Martin have terrible corporate cultures
“And it has only kind of big companies, Boeing, Lockheed, et cetera, that are really terrible cultures.”
Scholl: The need for deep hardware experience is a lie by legacy companies
“This is one of these lies told by old people at big, dumb companies, and it's just not true. And by the way, all those people suck. So don't worry about it. Go build real things.”
Altman: Overreacting to AI safety risks creating a zero-agency surveillance dystopia
“One dystopia that I'm particularly nervous about 10 years from now is we overreact to AI safety, and so we say, look, everyone, you're gonna get a cure for cancer, you're gonna have material abundance, but you will have no freedom, you will have no agency, it …”
Cherny: Bun codebase was rewritten to Rust in 11 days using Claude
“And he had the model rewrite it from Zig to Rust. It was one prompt. It was a dynamic workflow, and a dynamic workflows are a feature in quad code that essentially let you orchestrate, you know, dozens, 100,000 of agents to do work productively. And it ran for…”
Cherny: Claude routines do the maintenance work of hundreds of engineers
“And so now we have every day, maybe 20 or 30 of these routines. It's running across all of our code bases and It's not totally there yet, but we're on the path to fully automating the maintenance of our apps by doing this. And this is, again, hundreds of agent…”
Huang: Physical AI will be NVIDIA's next $100B business within 10 years
“Likely this will be one of the largest industries in the world, and it'll take longer than a couple, two, three years. It'll take less than 10, and so this will be our next hundred billion dollar business.”
Chou: Software engineers are one of the worst customer segments
“I happen to think that software engineers are one of like the worst customers to sell to, and they can change tools on a whim. Something new comes out over here, they'll adopt it. So I see it as like almost this market that's always incredibly competitive, but…”
Friedman: Worrying about security and privacy limits AI agent power
“It turns out that, like, the thing that was hampering the world was being worried about security and privacy and all the things that could go wrong, and when you, like, worry a bit less, you're like, oh my god, these things are unbelievably powerful.”
Ries: Founders prop up a value-destroying corporate governance system
“Founders either have to agree to or not this system. And so we actually are the ones propping it up. We're giving it the fresh meat it needs to survive because it's so value destroying.”
Graham: Non-Valley investors assume local startups are second-rate
“Investors outside Silicon Valley implicitly assume that any local startup is second rate.”
Tan: Returning to Coding with AI Yields 400x Output
“It was 13 years of not coding and then suddenly, boom, I'm doing about 400 X the amount of work that I was that year. The last time I was even sort of like two thirds of the time writing code.”
Tan predicts everyone on Earth will have a personal AI by 2027
“And then I guarantee you like this time next year, like everyone's going to be saying what you heard here first, which is like every single person on the planet will have their own personal AI.”
Hassabis: AI might solve a Millennium Prize math problem within years
“When I say just, we're now talking about just like solving the Riemann hypothesis or something. This would be obviously amazing. Well, one of the Millennium Prize problems, and maybe we're a couple of years out from doing that.”
Garry Tan: Claude in Chrome MCP is among worst software ever used
“Claude in Chrome MCP is one of the worst pieces of software I've ever used. You know, every time it would try to do an action, it would think and think and think. There was crazy context bloat. Often it wouldn't even do anything, but it would take two to three…”
Chollet: Symbolic Models Will Eventually Replicate and Outperform Deep Learning
“And so everything you're doing with machine learning today, with parametric curves, we should be able to do it. With symbolic models in the future in a way that will be much, much closer to optimality. Much closer to optimality in the sense that you're going t…”
Chollet: AI in 50 Years Will Not Use Today's LLM Stack
“I personally don't think that machine learning or AI in 50 years is still going to be built on this stack.”
Chollet: Gradient Descent Fails at Reasoning by Defaulting to Pattern Matching
“You could not really get Gradient descent to encode sort of like reasoning style algorithms. It was not because the models could not represent these algorithms. It was because gradient descent could not find them, right? So the problem was that it wasn't about…”
Mukund Jha: Emergent invented multi-agent paradigms before academic papers were published
“There was a time when we sort of invented the multi-agent system. We invented memory. We invented like, how do we do agent to agent communication? How do you scale up test time compute? A lot of those things which like were sort of coming out, like we would di…”
Hodak: Critics who call AI stochastic parrots do not understand AI
“The whole idea, like there's these things that are like stochastic parrots or glorified autocompletes, like these people just don't know what they're talking about.”
Hodak: Humans who will live to 1,000 are likely alive today
“I think it is very possible that the first people to live to a thousand are alive right now. And I think it might be many more people than you think. It's not gonna be like one or two people on earth today.”
Tan: Artificial general intelligence is literally actually here
“So, you know, there's sort of this explosion in model capability. You know, we've been talking about this for several years, but then it feels like it's here. Like AGI is literally actually here.”
Friedman: Majority of Software Code Is Probably Already Written by AI Agents
“It's already probably the case that the majority of code being written is written by agents.”
Claude Code increased Anthropic engineer productivity by 150 percent
“And since Quad Code came out, productivity per engineer at Anthropic has grown a 150%.”
Cherny uninstalled his IDE and lands 20 AI-written PRs daily
“For me personally, it's been a hundred percent for like since Opus 4.5. I just, I uninstalled my IDE. I don't edit a single line of code by hand. It's just a hundred percent quad code in Opus. And you know, I land, you know, like 20 pairs a day, every day.”
Claude generates between 70 and 90 percent of Anthropic's codebase
“If you look at Anthropic overall, it ranges between, like, 70 to 90% you know, depending on the team. For a lot of teams, it's also, like, a hundred percent. For a lot of people, it's a hundred percent.”
Cherny predicts AI will generally solve coding for everyone
“So continuing to trace the exponential, I think what will happen is coding will be generally solved for everyone. And I think today coding is practically solved, you know, for me, and I think it'll be the case for everyone you know, regardless of domain.”
Cherny: The software engineer title will disappear as roles become builders
“I think we're gonna start to see the title software engineer go away, and I think it's just gonna be maybe builder, maybe product manager, maybe we'll keep the title as kind of a vestigial thing, but the work that people do, it's not just gonna be coding, it's…”