Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tan: Returning to Coding with AI Yields 400x Output
“It was 13 years of not coding and then suddenly, boom, I'm doing about 400 X the amount of work that I was that year. The last time I was even sort of like two thirds of the time writing code.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tan predicts everyone on Earth will have a personal AI by 2027
“And then I guarantee you like this time next year, like everyone's going to be saying what you heard here first, which is like every single person on the planet will have their own personal AI.”
Opinion
Garry Tan: Claude in Chrome MCP is among worst software ever used
“Claude in Chrome MCP is one of the worst pieces of software I've ever used. You know, every time it would try to do an action, it would think and think and think. There was crazy context bloat. Often it wouldn't even do anything, but it would take two to three…”
Opinion
Tan: Artificial general intelligence is literally actually here
“So, you know, there's sort of this explosion in model capability. You know, we've been talking about this for several years, but then it feels like it's here. Like AGI is literally actually here.”
Opinion
Tan: Harvey and Open Evidence are overcapitalized 'foie gras' startups
“I think they're like, there might be a case of two foie gras startups, like one being Harvey and the other one being open evidence, right?”
Opinion
Garry Tan: Scammy founder programs produce future SBFs and Theranos fraudsters
“I worry that some of these programs are just literally trying to teach people to become more you know, SBFs and Theranos. And that's like, you know, that's a waste of time. Like, and you're going to go to jail.”
Opinion
Tan: OpenAI o3 operates around 130 IQ, smarter than many past hires
“I think of O-three as basically about a 130 IQ, maybe O-three pro can be even smarter than that. When I really think about that, it's like, oh yeah, like a lot of the people who I've ever hired in my lifetime are like, yeah, O-three is smarter than that person…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tan: Sam Altman aims to scale AI compute to $1 trillion spend
“Since then, Sam has told me that he actually wants to go to four orders of magnitude to get to a trillion dollars in you know, sort of spend.”
Opinion
Tan: AGI is effectively already here for most knowledge worker tasks
“Like you could make a strong case that AGI is basically already here. The majority of the tasks that, you know, 98% of knowledge workers do day-to-day it is now possible for a software engineer probably sitting in front of cursor, to write something that gets …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garry Tan: Context-aware consumer AI will become a $10B-$100B company
“I mean, this is a great example of like consumer AI that is almost certainly going to be a 10 or a hundred billion dollar company. That no one's built yet.”
Insight
Tan: Write markdown teaching LLMs to code rather than calling LLMs
“And a new way to do it is actually have the LLMs just write the code you need right now. And then you write 10 or 20 times less code, but it's way more customizable. It does, you know, more and is more awesome. Between token maxing and even like, you know, don…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Tan: AI token compute costs will drop drastically within two years
“I mean, basically because the frontier models are that good, like, you know, I think that in two years, like, That'll be a 100,000 and, you know, down to 10,000 and a thousand. I mean, basically these orders of magnitude are about to happen.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tan: The AI consumer revolution will arrive in 2029
“It means that the ideal consumer moment is still like
Three orders of magnitude away, but that means that the consumer revolution is actually in 2029.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tan: The next Meta and Snap will emerge within two years
“That's when we're going to see the new meta. That's when we'll see the new snap. That's when we're going to see all of the future and it's not even a couple of years away.”
Insight
Tan: AI allows solo founders to build year-long projects in days
“And then now it's like, actually what would take a week or a month or a year, like you literally do in, you know, minutes, hours, or, you know, at the worst, like you could build a whole cathedral of like 20 to 40,000 lines of code. Like what would take a typi…”
Insight
Tan: Organizational superintelligence is built by compounding micro AI skills across all work
“How do you build super intelligence inside a company? You do that on everything you do. And it's not more complicated than that. Like, you literally just compose everything that you do, and any given thing that any given person can do, you combine that in aggr…”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Tan: $100K AI token workloads will drop to $200 in two years
“What you spend a 100,000 or a million dollars a year on now, it will be commonplace like in, in two years, right? It'll, it won't cost a 100,000 in a year. It'll cost 10,000. And the year after that, it'll be like a couple hundred bucks, right? And everyone wi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tan: Centralized vs. decentralized AI trajectory will be decided within 24 months
“We basically have a choice to be made over the next, I don't think it's even that long. I think it's like 18 to 24 months. It might take five years, but there are sort of two scenarios”
Assertion Supported
Tan: Jeff Lawson was ousted from Twilio 199 days after voting protections expired
“Our friend Jeff Lawson at Twilio built that company from nothing. To four billion dollars in, you know, actual revenue, like stock up 390% since IPO. I mean, by all accounts, you know, smash rip roaring success. And then his super voting shares expired after 1…”
Opinion
Tan: $5 to $10 of Opus calls replicates human research and annotation
“Basically, for the equivalent of, like, Five or 10 dollars of opus calls. I mean, I would estimate that it does the work of like, you know, a real human being that would have to like go painstaking through dozens of articles, read entire books about certain su…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garry Tan: Tokenmaxxing will permeate all knowledge work across society
“I think now it's going to permeate every part of society. Like, every thing that we would call knowledge work could be token maxed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garry Tan: Tokenmaxxing will not replace humans because human agency remains essential
“I don't think that it means that we're going to get rid of people. I think it means that people need to still supply the agency.”
Insight
Tan: Agentic engineering fails when developers put Markdown logic into brittle code
“All of the difficulty in energetic engineering today is when people try to do things that should be in markdown in code and it fails because code is brittle.”
Insight
Tan: Technical people with taste benefit most from tokenmaxxing AI agents
“It's very significant for people who are technical because it actually raises the bar on like what you are capable of doing. Like all the people who are attacking me about lines of code, they particularly are, The people who are most likely to get wings if you…”
Garry Tan