SpaceX

8 statements across 4 episodes · 2 bullish · 2 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Sep 15, 2016 by Elon Musk · said 32 times in 15 episodes since 2016 · across every show →

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brought up most by Elon Musk (10), Sam Altman (3), Juan Benet (3), Paul Buchheit (2), James Hawkins (2), Garry Tan (2), Eric Migicovsky (2), Tom Blomfield (1)

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2026 2 mentions in 1 episode
2025 9 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2024 1 mention in 1 episode
2022 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2018 6 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2017 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2016 8 mentions in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about SpaceX, oldest first

Sep 15, 2016
Disclosure
Musk: 80% of my time is spent on engineering and design
“Actually almost almost all my time, like, 80% of it is spent on engineering and design. Engineering and design, so it's developing next generation product that's 80% of it.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 16:32 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Sep 15, 2016
Disclosure
Musk: I gave SpaceX less than 10% chance of success when starting
“When starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%. And I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose, lose everything.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 9:08 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Sep 15, 2016 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 10:14 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Jul 1, 2017
What-if
Benet: Tesla and SpaceX would have failed without Elon Musk's personal wealth
“If Elon hadn't been personally wealthy, both projects would have probably failed.”
Juan Benet Jul 1, 2017 ▶ 50:58 IPFS, CoinList, and the Filecoin ICO with Juan Benet and Dalton Caldwell · Y Combinator
Oct 12, 2018
Assertion Contradicted
Migicovsky: Relativity Space's thesis was that 3D-printing eliminates integration testing costs
“Their thesis was it's not actually rocket assembly that costs a lot of money, it's the testing phase of integration, where if you have hundreds of different systems that have to work perfectly with each other, when you assemble and build the final rocket, you …”
Eric Migicovsky Oct 12, 2018 ▶ 34:12 A Conversation on Hard Tech with Eric Migicovsky · Y Combinator
Jun 19, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Elon Musk: Raw materials are only 1% to 2% of rocket costs
“Actually a rocket, the raw materials of a rocket are only maybe one or two percent of the historical cost of a rocket. So The manufacturing must necessarily be very inefficient.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 27:31 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
Jun 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2055
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 38:02 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
Jun 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Musk: Big defense contractors will not advance rocket technology
“If a startup doesn't do something to advance rocket technology. It's definitely not coming from the big defense contractors because they just impedance match to the government and the government just wants to do very conventional things.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 17:35 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
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