The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

3open predictions

0due for another look

2closed calls →

108days to next prediction date

Everyone François Chollet (4)Elon Musk (4)Garry Tan (3)Demis Hassabis (3)Aravind Srinivas (3)Amjad Masad (3)Max Hodak (2)John Preskill (2)Jensen Huang (2)Sam Altman (1)Robin Sloan (1)Rio Lu (1)

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today 202720282029 JulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (3)

108 days left 2026-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026

Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure

“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”

Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 42:04 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator

10505 days left 2055-06-19

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2055

Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years

“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”

Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 38:02 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator

36072 days left 2125-06-19

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2125

Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber humans five to tenfold

“I mean, I'd predict that there's gonna be, At least five times as many humanoid robots as there are humans, maybe 10 times.”

Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 36:55 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator

Closed calls (2) the full record →

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026

“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”

Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 10:14 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Musk: Neuralink will do first human vision implants in 6-12 months

“And then I think in the next six to 12 months, we'll be doing our first implants for vision, where even if somebody's completely blind we can write directly to the visual cortex.”

Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 45:03 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator

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Closed calls (2) the full record →

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