The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions

0due for another look

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10788days to next prediction date

Everyone François Chollet (4)Elon Musk (4)Garry Tan (3)Demis Hassabis (3)Aravind Srinivas (3)Amjad Masad (3)Max Hodak (2)John Preskill (2)Jensen Huang (2)Sam Altman (1)Robin Sloan (1)Rio Lu (1)

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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (2)

10788 days left 2056-03-27

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2056

Chollet: Future AI Won't Just Be Layered Harnesses on Base LLMs

“Future AI in a few decades it's not going to be this harness on top of a reasoning model on top of a base LLM.”

François Chollet Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 12:24 François Chollet: Why Scaling Alone Isn’t Enough for AGI · Y Combinator

18093 days left 2076-03-27

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2076

Chollet: AI in 50 Years Will Not Use Today's LLM Stack

“I personally don't think that machine learning or AI in 50 years is still going to be built on this stack.”

François Chollet Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 5:01 François Chollet: Why Scaling Alone Isn’t Enough for AGI · Y Combinator

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The Calls

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