The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

21held up → 12didn’t hold up → 3partly held up →
64%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone François Chollet (4)Elon Musk (4)Garry Tan (3)Demis Hassabis (3)Aravind Srinivas (3)Amjad Masad (3)Max Hodak (2)John Preskill (2)Jensen Huang (2)Sam Altman (1)Robin Sloan (1)Rio Lu (1)
drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom
today 20192020202120222023202420252026 FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 9 assessed early →

The record (36) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”
John Preskill May 16, 2018 ▶ 55:51 John Preskill on Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Stuart: Single NVLink domains will soon scale to hundreds of GPUs
“And you also have a scale of architectures like NBL-L-Seventy-Two, which packs 72 GPUs inside a single NVLink domain, and soon this is going to extend to hundreds of GPUs.”
Stuart (Stu) Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 9:43 Multi-GPU Kernels, Intelligence per Watt, Heterogeneous Inference, and More | YC Paper Club · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Srinivas: Phone Makers Will Offer Multiple AI Search Alternatives
“The phone makers will start offering all of them as alternatives. It's not going to be like a locked-in default search option.”
Aravind Srinivas Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 15:53 Aravind Srinivas: Perplexity's Race to Build Agentic Search · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Kaplan: AI training and inference will see 3x-10x yearly efficiency gains
“I think that over time, as AI becomes more and more widespread, I think that we're going to really drive down the cost of inference and training dramatically from where we are right now. Sort of, three X to 10 X gains algorithmically, and in sort of scaling up…”
Jared Kaplan Jul 29, 2025 ▶ 32:02 Scaling and the Road to Human-Level AI | Anthropic Co-founder Jared Kaplan · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Ravisankar: Most developers will learn to code before driving by 2028
“If you just extrapolate the trend line, I think this will be two and four or three and four developers will learn to code before they drive in the next decade or so.”
Vivek Ravisankar Mar 30, 2018 ▶ 27:51 Breaking Down HackerRank's Survey of 40,000 Developers with Vivek Ravisankar · Y Combinator
Prediction Partly held up
Hassabis: Frontier model capabilities reach tiny edge models within 6-12 months
“But I think for now there's the assumption we make is that, you know, a year later after one of our leading, you know, pro models or frontier models goes out half a year later, you'll have them in the, The really tiny, almost edge models.”
Demis Hassabis Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 10:01 Demis Hassabis: Agents, AGI & The Next Big Scientific Breakthrough · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Blomfield: Major AI coding tools will soon auto-ingest error logs
“It's so powerful that pretty soon I actually expect all the major coding tools to be able to ingest these errors Without humans having to copy paste. If you think about it, our value being the copy paste machine is, is kind of weird, right? We're like, we're l…”
Tom Blomfield Apr 25, 2025 ▶ 9:22 How To Get The Most Out Of Vibe Coding | Startup School · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Mukund Jha: Hundreds of AI agents will collaborate on single tasks by year-end
“I think by end of the year you'll have, you know, agents which are running for hours. And like maybe hundreds of agents collaborating on the single task.”
Mukund Jha Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 31:12 AI Is Unlocking Millions Of New Builders · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Elon Musk Sep 15, 2016 ▶ 10:14 Elon Musk : How to Build the Future · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Musk: Neuralink will do first human vision implants in 6-12 months
“And then I think in the next six to 12 months, we'll be doing our first implants for vision, where even if somebody's completely blind we can write directly to the visual cortex.”
Elon Musk Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 45:03 Elon Musk: Digital Superintelligence, Multiplanetary Life, How to Be Useful · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Best: Newsletters will replace social feeds for news within five years
“I think the answer is it won't replace the social network aspect of it. The thing that Facebook and the social networks are great at is having the relationship between you and like the people, you know, in real life... The part of it that should absolutely be …”
Chris Best May 15, 2019 ▶ 35:53 Monetizing Podcasts and Newsletters - Chris Best of Substack and Jonathan Gill of Backtracks · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Best: Podcast ad rates per download will drop significantly
“I suspect as I kind of hinted before that there's a lot of podcast advertising that's in a little bit of like an emperor's new clothes state where like too much is it's overpriced. And because there's just not metrics there, it's just like waiting for like som…”
Chris Best May 15, 2019 ▶ 40:40 Monetizing Podcasts and Newsletters - Chris Best of Substack and Jonathan Gill of Backtracks · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Johnson: TikTok will produce more traditional, mainstream creators
“I think that TikTok is going to produce some people some more traditional, quote unquote traditional creators.”
Jarvis Johnson May 1, 2019 ▶ 58:47 Software Engineer Turned Youtuber - Jarvis Johnson · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Akinlade in 2018: Nigeria's population will exceed the US in five years
“Like in the next five years, I think Nigeria is going to be even more than the US.”
Shola Akinlade Oct 16, 2018 ▶ 40:15 Helping African Businesses Get Paid, Shola Akinlade of Paystack · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Schwartz: Google will eventually understand images directly without alt text
“Google eventually will figure out what images are, and they're getting closer to figuring out what images are.”
Eli Schwartz Sep 27, 2018 ▶ 18:53 SEO Advice from SurveyMonkey Director of SEO and Growth, Eli Schwartz · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Benjamin: Quantum hardware will soon reach behaviors impossible to classically simulate
“We are now getting on the verge of getting machines that will behave in ways that cannot be predicted, cannot be simulated. We'll be in the regime where we're genuinely discovering how the machine behaves by having one.”
Simon Benjamin May 25, 2018 ▶ 1:15:52 Simon Benjamin on Architectures for Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Garg: The biggest crypto winners will likely re-centralize in Silicon Valley
“I think you could have the inspiration for ideas come from underserved markets, but I wouldn't be surprised if the really big winners in crypto actually sort of re-centralize around Silicon Valley.”
Avichal Garg May 2, 2018 ▶ 15:02 Crypto Investors - Linda Xie and Avichal Garg · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Xie: Crypto adoption will take off in unbanked and inflationary countries first
“I think it's gonna be in countries where people don't have bank accounts primarily, and they now need a method of actually storing their own funds or countries where the currency is just getting inflated away, and so the currency is not valuable.”
Linda Xie May 2, 2018 ▶ 13:04 Crypto Investors - Linda Xie and Avichal Garg · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bromberg: Startup liquidity timelines will revert to moving faster again
“Certainly in the last few years we've seen, ah, the speed to liquidity go down, ah, we think that's gonna revert back and we're gonna see that, that come faster again.”
Andy Bromberg Mar 9, 2018 ▶ 7:30 Andy Bromberg - Startup Investor School Day 4 · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Bromberg: Crypto and Venture Capital Will See Much More Lobbying
“I think, especially given the attention given to regulation in the space, we will see way more lobbying happening in crypto and in venture capital over the coming years.”
Andy Bromberg Mar 9, 2018 ▶ 47:00 Andy Bromberg - Startup Investor School Day 4 · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Bromberg: Regulators Will Classify Almost All Token Sales as Securities
“I think that what will happen is that the regulators are going to say, these are almost all securities. You can't just sell these tokens to anyone on the public markets.”
Andy Bromberg Mar 9, 2018 ▶ 58:24 Andy Bromberg - Startup Investor School Day 4 · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Sparks: Smart scales will provide personalized dietary advice within five years
“Five years, we'll probably have a scale that'll be like, oh, you know, should probably cut out eating this, or you should eat more of this, or something like that. I think we'll see some pretty interesting consumer technologies come out of, you know, weird pot…”
Tom Sparks Jan 5, 2018 ▶ 47:50 Leah Culver of Breaker and Tom Sparks of YC Answer Your Questions About Security and Podcasting · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Greene: Enterprise tech will consolidate into four clouds immune to startup disruption
“Everything's going to be in just a few, maybe four clouds or so, you know, there's not going to be that many of them, because like, we spend about ten billion a year in infrastructure, and so it's not going to Get disrupted by a startup, unless they invent qua…”
Diane Greene Aug 4, 2017 ▶ 18:05 VMware Cofounder Diane Greene with Jessica Livingston at the Female Founders Conference · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Benet: Decentralized storage nodes will beat AWS on unit economics
“Our bet there is that yes, that there's a whole bunch of places and cases where Certain individuals or groups in the world have access to either really cheap storage or storage that's positioned well in the network that is kind of like, you know, somewhere bet…”
Juan Benet Jul 1, 2017 ▶ 1:56:18 IPFS, CoinList, and the Filecoin ICO with Juan Benet and Dalton Caldwell · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Saez-Gil: New airline regulations demand 160M tons of carbon offsets annually
“All the airlines starting in twenty-twenty-one will have to offset their emissions. This is by regulations, right? Mm-hmm. It's called the Corsia Framework. Yeah. We are talking about a 160 million tons per year that are gonna be demanded by the market.”
Diego Saez-Gil Jan 28, 2020 ▶ 17:20 Diego Saez Gil - How Pachama Uses Tech to Solve Climate Change · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ning: Well-capitalized Canadian public companies will drive US cannabis consolidation
“I think part of the whole like consolidation pattern that will Come just because the market's so fragmented right now will be heavily pressurized by Canadian like publicly traded, heavily capitalized companies. Just because they're coming in and they're buying…”
Vincent Ning Oct 11, 2018 ▶ 30:16 Cannabis Startup Founders David Hua and Vincent Ning on Legalization, Banking, and Industry Trends · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Brillhart: All VR headsets are moving toward wireless volumetric movement
“All the headsets are going towards volumetric, like, you know, positionally wireless. So I imagine there being you know, a much a much more interactive, much more engaging, like you're not gonna sit there, you're gonna actually move around.”
Jessica Brillhart Aug 16, 2018 ▶ 35:54 Jessica Brillhart, Immersive Director, on VR and AR · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Brundage: AI will achieve superhuman performance in StarCraft within three years
“Yeah, I think there will be Superhuman, Starcraft and Dota too, probably in that time horizon. I said in, I think early 2017 that it would be the end of, that I gave like 50% chance by the end of 2018. So this gives me more runway. I'll say, yeah, like, 70% co…”
Miles Brundage Apr 25, 2018 ▶ 44:19 A.I. Policy and Public Perception - Miles Brundage and Tim Hwang · Y Combinator
Prediction Partly held up
3D printing will cut home construction from 15 days to 24 hours
“So right now take about 15 days to build a house. This would be under 24 hours and then under 12 hours is the goal.”
Brett Hagler Apr 4, 2018 ▶ 31:09 3D Home Printing for the Developing World – Alexandria Lafci and Brett Hagler of New Story Charity · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Preskill: 50-to-100 qubit quantum computers will arrive in a couple years
“We think in a couple of years we'll have devices with about 50 qubits to a hundred, and we'll be able to control them pretty well, and that's an interesting range, because even though it's only 50 to a hundred qubits, doesn't sound like that big a deal, but th…”
John Preskill May 16, 2018 ▶ 19:48 John Preskill on Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Allred: Lambda School may launch a nursing school by late 2019
“So you know, we're not working on it right, right now, but don't be surprised if you hear by the end of this year, an announcement that Lambda nursing is going live and we're launching a nursing school”
Austen Allred Apr 3, 2019 ▶ 31:36 A CS Education That's Free Until You Get a Job - Austen Allred of Lambda School · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
John Preskill May 16, 2018 ▶ 28:45 John Preskill on Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Slavin Predicts 98% of Americans Will Own Smartphones by 2019
“And by 2019, that's 98%. 98% of the United States will have smartphones, you know, even Obama phones or smartphones. You won't be able to buy a non-smartphone in 2019.”
Kevin Slavin Dec 6, 2017 ▶ 51:15 There's an Art to Getting Brilliant People to Surprise Themselves - Kevin Slavin of The Shed · Y Combinator
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Schwartz: Paid ad budgets will suffer substantial cuts under GDPR
“The other big advantage is that paid budgets are now going to take a huge hit. Because of GDPR, we've gone to this nightmare scenario where you don't know if your paid budgets are working because you can't track users until users Agree to be tracked.”
Eli Schwartz Sep 27, 2018 ▶ 40:25 SEO Advice from SurveyMonkey Director of SEO and Growth, Eli Schwartz · Y Combinator
Prediction Held up
Benjamin: 50-qubit supremacy devices will launch within a year but lack practical utility
“On the other hand, what we believe is about to happen in the coming year is that people will start to bring out qubits, ah, sorry quantum devices that are at or just a little bit over the quantum supremacy threshold. This number, a lot of people are racing to …”
Simon Benjamin May 25, 2018 ▶ 49:54 Simon Benjamin on Architectures for Quantum Computing · Y Combinator
Prediction Partly held up
Hua: California adult-use sales will hit $3B while medical collapses
“Last year we probably did three billion dollars in medical sales. This year we'll probably do as much of that in adult use sales and medical will be a fraction of that. Maybe, you know, half a billion if we get there.”
David Hua Oct 11, 2018 ▶ 27:30 Cannabis Startup Founders David Hua and Vincent Ning on Legalization, Banking, and Industry Trends · Y Combinator
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 300 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.