The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tan: OpenAI Uses Fake Model to Hide Raw o1 Chain of Thought
“If you use O-one in ChatGPT, it looks like it will tell you what's really going on, but apparently they have a fake model that just spits out things to give you the impression that it's breaking it up into steps. And they've actually You know, hidden it, becau…”
Taggar: AI Is on Track to Design Chips Better Than Humans
“At some point, the AI will get good enough to just, like, design chips better than, like, humans can, and then it will just, like, eliminate one of its bottlenecks for, like, getting greater intelligence, and so it feels like that's already kind of, like, We'r…”
Taggar: AI coding startups risk obsolescence from OpenAI o1's native reasoning
“I wouldn't go all the way and suggest they should pivot, but I do think companies that are building AI coding agents or AI program engineers are potentially have stuff to think about here, because it seems like O-One in particular is like outperforming on just…”
Hu: OpenAI's o1 solves Navier-Stokes equations for airfoil design
“O-one was actually able to write All of these equations, all these partial differential equations, and solve basically Naive Stokes questions to actually solve airfoil.”
Friedman: Diode Failed on GPT-4 but Worked on o1 With Same Prompts
“The other thing I think is interesting about this example is like during the batch before a one came out, diode had tried to do this with GPT four. Oh, and it just flat out didn't work. And then they basically tried the same thing, the same prompts, but fed it…”
Hu: Diode demonstrated that OpenAI's o1 can automate PCB system design
“But the thing that they demonstrated now with O-one was actually able to do the system design and component selection, which is crazy. So it would be able to read all the data sheets and select the right components.”
Taggar: 100% AI accuracy will create winner-take-all software markets
“If they just on day one, you could be guaranteed a hundred percent accuracy, like as though you're just building a web app on top of a database, the barrier to entry to build these things goes way down. It's gonna be more competition than ever. And then it wil…”
Hu: OpenAI o1 unlocks startups in physical engineering and biology
“To connect to Sam's essay is a lot of things that are going to make the atom world, physical world better because it's really good at math and physics. So any startup that's working around mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, chemical engineering, b…”
Hu: Top AI Products Use Multi-Model Pipelines Splitting Extraction and Reasoning
“I think this is actually a very common pattern that we're seeing a lot of the interesting products built with AI. You use different kinds of models. So, yes, four O mini is for PDF extraction, and then O one for the reasoning, because it's actually very hard t…”
Hu: YC startup DryMerge reached near-100% accuracy by adopting OpenAI's o1
“There's a company Dry Merch. That you work with, and they went from 80% accuracy to pretty much a 99 or for intents and purposes, a hundred percent using a one and they unlocked a bunch of things.”
Hu: A YC startup built a Replit Agent clone in hours using o1
“They basically got a version of Replit Agent working with the product. All they had to prompt O-one with was all their developer, actually, some of their developer documentation and some of their code, and they could just prompt it, build me a web app that wri…”