Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taggar: Autonomous agents will select dev tools, spawning a parallel agent economy
“The agents are going to go out and choose
Tools to use to build things, which is going to essentially create a whole economy of agents, like picking and choosing dev tools and maybe other like products and goods and services, who knows, but it will essentially…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taggar: AI agents may eventually establish their own economy and currency
“The whole idea of, like, the human money versus agent money, like, that's kind of where this probably goes at some point, is, like, the, right now the agents are transacting, if you have them transact, they're going to transact in human money, because that mak…”
Insight
Taggar: Never give personal AI agents access to emails due to prompt injection
“Do not give it access to emails would be my number one piece of advice or probably anything. Cause it's not clear how safe it is. And it's probably almost certainly gonna probably a lot of people being prompted injected by it right now”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taggar: Model commoditization sets up AI app startups for fantastic year
“Gemini surge, especially over the last few months, just feels like it returns us to a world of where exactly that, like the models are all essentially commoditizing each other. And it's just like the application layer and the startups are going to set up to ha…”
Insight
Taggar: Incremental model gains make finding AI startup ideas difficult again
“The models themselves have incrementally improved this year, but there haven't been like major steps forward that have shaken everything up, which is, has a knock on effect. Many episodes ago, we talked about how it was It felt easier than ever to pivot and fi…”
Insight
Taggar: Rising AI software expectations force startups to maintain pre-AI hiring levels
“AI is going to reduce the cost of, like, producing the time to produce things, and so then the expectations from your users and customers will just go up, and you'll need to keep hiring more people to satisfy, like, the growing expectations. I feel like this y…”
Insight
Taggar: College students often extract better AI model performance than PhDs
“The technical expertise is now actually really like the missing piece for a lot of these things. And we consistently see, at least in YC, that college students are actually at the forefront of this stuff, like actually understanding how to use the models and h…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taggar: AI Is on Track to Design Chips Better Than Humans
“At some point, the AI will get good enough to just, like, design chips better than, like, humans can, and then it will just, like, eliminate one of its bottlenecks for, like, getting greater intelligence, and so it feels like that's already kind of, like, We'r…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taggar: OpenAI consistently pioneers breakthroughs but never maintains its competitive lead
“OpenAI seems like it is continually the one pushing the envelope, but they always seem to be The first ones to make major breakthroughs, but they have never been able to maintain the lead so far.”
Insight
Taggar: AI Co-Pilot Startups Get Paid Easily but Suffer Low Usage
“There's so much interest from potential customers to like want a co-pilot that it's actually quite easy to start getting like inbound leads if you pitch this.
And if it's even easy to get people to pay you money upfront, but what's really hard is to get them t…”
Insight
Taggar: Changing product direction based on investor feedback repels good investors
“So if a founder actually, like, actions on your feedback in sort of like a material way, like, it makes you less than like, if you're a good investor, I think it makes you less than likely to want to invest. You don't want to invest in someone who is relying o…”
Insight
Taggar: Every YC Startup Has an Apparent Fatal Flaw
“Literally in any YC batch, I could take every single company and like pick out some like fatal flaw. And like, you know that some of them are going to turn out to be worth like billions of dollars, but you can still do it.”
Opinion
Taggar: FAANG Product Launches Rarely Kill Fast-Growing Startups
“Cause like, if you think about like, we're like scratching our heads, trying to find examples of times that like a fan company launched a product that killed a fast growing, successful startup. So like clearly more often than not, like structural advantage isn…”
Opinion
Taggar: Gemini is more accurate than Perplexity for real-time queries
“Personally, I found it was better than all the other tools for that, and it was better than Perplexity on it, too. Like, Perplexity would be fast, but not always accurate, and Gemini was not quite as fast as Perplexity, but was always pretty accurate if I aske…”
Insight
Taggar: Post-Series A AI startups still require traditional hiring to scale
“Yeah, like, post-series A, it actually largely feels, like, the playbook is the same, and the companies might be smaller for the same amount of revenue, but it Feels it's entirely because they hit the revenue so fast and there's still just bottlenecked on how …”
Insight
Taggar: The 'Last Window to Get Rich' Logic Is Flawed Under AGI
“If this is actually the last window to make money and get rich, then you're basically implying that, you know, that we're going to get some definition of AGI or ASI, or whatever you want to call it. That's like a necessary condition for that to be true. Like, …”
Opinion
Harj Taggar: Incumbent software companies underwhelm businesses seeking AI solutions
“Because, like, AI has captured the, like, the imagination of everybody, everyone, like, wants to know what's possible and are consistently underwhelmed by what, like, the established software companies can offer them, but they're open to, like, college student…”
Insight
Taggar: AI startups command higher pricing by selling work rather than software
“Things that seem like they were niche before AI, you can get people to pay you a lot, lot more money for because they're not just buying software, they're buying like work from you.”
Opinion
Taggar: o3 follows rubrics rigidly while Gemini 2.5 Pro reasons flexibly
“Oh, three was very rigid, actually. Like it really sticks to the rubric. It's heavily penalizes for anything that doesn't fit like the rubric that you've given it. Whereas Gemini 2.5 pro was actually quite good at being flexible in that it would apply the rubr…”
Opinion
Taggar: AI coding startups risk obsolescence from OpenAI o1's native reasoning
“I wouldn't go all the way and suggest they should pivot, but I do think companies that are building AI coding agents or AI program engineers are potentially have stuff to think about here, because it seems like O-One in particular is like outperforming on just…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taggar: Claude jumped from 5% to 25% market share in YC startups
“And some of the stuff that really stood out is Claude has, even just in six months, from the winter batch to the summer batch, has gone from, like, five percent developer market share to, like, 25%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taggar: 15% of the YC batch adopted OpenAI's o1 before public release
“It seems like, or, 15% of the batch are already using O-one, even though it's not, like, fully available yet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taggar: 100% AI accuracy will create winner-take-all software markets
“If they just on day one, you could be guaranteed a hundred percent accuracy, like as though you're just building a web app on top of a database, the barrier to entry to build these things goes way down. It's gonna be more competition than ever. And then it wil…”
Insight
Taggar: Non-engineers should not start companies solo without finding technical co-founders
“If you're not an engineer, I don't think you can do this, and I think you should really focus your time on trying to find a great technical co-founder to start the company with.”