why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Skates: Basic AI visibility will rapidly commoditize into free lead generation
“I think the real business has to be downstream of AI visibility. It's a valuable, there's value in it, like, you know, just like there's value in, in the SEO world, but it's so easy to do. You know, we did it, you know, as I mentioned in, in, in probably more …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Skates: Amplitude is building a 'Cursor for analytics' product
“We're gonna go much, much bigger in December, January, and February where we are gonna be coming out with what we call the cursor for analytics, which I'm incredibly excited about, and I think will dramatically change how people use and leverage analytics”
Insight
Skates: AI product building must be technology-first, not customer-driven
“With the capabilities of AI, because they're so jagged, you, it's a technology first understanding of what is possible. And so if you go to your customers and tell them and ask them what they want, like, they're not even going to be able to describe what's pos…”
Insight
Skates: AI-native startups wrongly ignore a decade of SaaS domain expertise
“On the flip side, I think what a lot of these AI native teams are really missing is they haven't learned the product and the problem and why things are solved the way they're solved. And so like they try to create these new interfaces from scratch without draw…”
Insight
Skates: Startups have a massive advantage over incumbents in adopting AI
“It is hard as a larger company to reorient and rebuild your company to use AI well. And this is, I think to your point, the huge advantage that a lot of earlier companies that can build from the ground up in this way.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Skates: Amplitude reorganized its product team twice in one year for AI
“We've done two reorganizations in the engineering product and design organization since the start of this year. And so, you know, there were leaders and executives and different people who were very much kind of in the SAS modality, but were not on the bleedin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Skates: Amplitude's AI Visibility launch doubled weekly free plan signups
“That product launch doubled new signups to Amplitude, which is wild.
You know, like, every week, it's like, we're getting twice as many
signups to our free plan as we did from before our AI visibility launch”
Assertion Supported
Skates: Amplitude generates $350M in annual revenue and spends nearly that much
“We're three hundred and fifty million in revenue, and, you know, we're deploying close to that in terms of total spend every year”
Opinion
Skates: Self-improving software is arriving much sooner than 10 years out
“We've always had this vision at amplitude of a self-improving product where you have a product that dynamically responds to your user feedback. So it knows what features you like. It knows when you're getting frustrated and stuck. It knows how to change things…”
Assertion Partly supported
Alströmer: Amplitude, Stripe, and Front Started With Founder-Led Outbound Emails
“Some of the early ones like Amplitude, Stripe, Front, they were doing up on sales emails, just like the one we described to get started. Those founders were doing those sales emails as they get started.”
Insight
Seibel: Startups cannot build sophisticated products without event-based analytics
“For all of those things, you want an events-based metrics product. Mixpanel, Amplitude, Heap. I think we funded like, 50 of them. There are like, a hundred of them out there. You should be using one of them. If you're not, you can't be sophisticated at buildin…”
Disclosure
Skates: Amplitude is launching an 'Ask AI' chat interface in January
“We're going to be launching in January, which is we're going to launch a, what we're going to call ask AI, which is a global chat interface, very much like cursor, where you will be able to chat with yeah, chat with AI and ask it to pull certain charts for you…”
Disclosure
Skates: It took Amplitude a full year to onboard its team
“It's still taken us a full year to get the team kind of fully on board and ramped and like believing and seeing and building.”
Disclosure
Skates: Amplitude hosted an internal 'AI Week' to train leaders
“I started working with James the founder, CEO of Command, as well as Wade our engineering leader to figure out how do we train the organization on AI, and then we came up with an AI week, and unfortunately for a bunch of reasons, we weren't able to actually do…”