The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Benet: Tesla and SpaceX would have failed without Elon Musk's personal wealth
“If Elon hadn't been personally wealthy, both projects would have probably failed.”
Elon Musk: Raw materials are only 1% to 2% of rocket costs
“Actually a rocket, the raw materials of a rocket are only maybe one or two percent of the historical cost of a rocket. So The manufacturing must necessarily be very inefficient.”
Musk: Big defense contractors will not advance rocket technology
“If a startup doesn't do something to advance
rocket technology.
It's definitely not coming from the big defense contractors because they just impedance match to the government and the government just wants to do very conventional things.”
Musk: 80% of my time is spent on engineering and design
“Actually almost almost all my time, like, 80% of it is spent on engineering and design. Engineering and design, so it's developing next generation product that's 80% of it.”
Musk: I gave SpaceX less than 10% chance of success when starting
“When starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10%. And I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose, lose everything.”
Migicovsky: Relativity Space's thesis was that 3D-printing eliminates integration testing costs
“Their thesis was it's not actually rocket assembly that costs a lot of money, it's the testing phase of integration, where if you have hundreds of different systems that have to work perfectly with each other, when you assemble and build the final rocket, you …”