The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 635 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tan: Returning to Coding with AI Yields 400x Output
“It was 13 years of not coding and then suddenly, boom, I'm doing about 400 X the amount of work that I was that year. The last time I was even sort of like two thirds of the time writing code.”
Seibel: VCs tell YC partners not to advise founders against high burn
“They also always tell us like, hey, like we're funding your companies. Like you shouldn't be like, you know, like telling the founders not to have high burn.”
Seibel: Investors hate acknowledging their incentives misalign with founders
“I think that in general investors are allergic when we tell founders that there might be situations where their incentives and the founders incentives are not aligned perfectly.”
Khosla tells Sam Altman his biggest problem with Y Combinator startups
“By the way, this is my single biggest beef with YC. Not enough option pools. Right? Not enough option pools. Not enough focus on recruiting the right co-founders.”
Ralston: Y Combinator would not have funded a young Steve Jobs
“I don't think we'd fund a Steve Jobs at YC. Well, that's not good. Yeah. And the reason is, especially when Steve Jobs was starting off, he was an asshole.”
Paul Graham: Working 20 years at big companies indicates poor founder fit
“I think if you have worked for a large company for 20 years, you might not be a founder, unless you were forced to for visa reasons, because if you were the kind of person that would make a good founder, you wouldn't be able to stand working for a large compan…”
Altman: Most investment firms struggle to reject profitable, harmful companies
“If there's a company we look at where we think we'd make a lot of money, but it'd be, we think it might be bad for the world, we won't touch it. Which most other investment firms unfortunately have a hard time with.”
Altman: Most VCs give founders bad advice on employee equity
“And this is one place that your investors will always give you bad advice. I think, not YC, but all other investors give bad advice here, most do.”
Altman: AI agents build in seven minutes what took startups three months
“What took three months to build at the time that we, each company built over the whole YC startup, could now be done with, like, in, like, seven minutes by a coding agent”
Tan: Organizational superintelligence is built by compounding micro AI skills across all work
“How do you build super intelligence inside a company? You do that on everything you do. And it's not more complicated than that. Like, you literally just compose everything that you do, and any given thing that any given person can do, you combine that in aggr…”
Graham: YC startups returning home are half as likely to become unicorns
“YC now has a lot of data about this, and the startups that go home after YC don't do as well as the ones that stay. Startups that go home back, startups that go back home after YC are only about half as likely to become unicorns”
Tan: Founders should willingly spend $500 daily on AI tokens
“One of the key maxims for YC is You know, how do you find good startup ideas, live in the future and build what's missing? Right. And so this is a profound version of that where all you have to do is commit your brain to look at, you know, spending 500 dollars…”
Taggar: Incremental model gains make finding AI startup ideas difficult again
“The models themselves have incrementally improved this year, but there haven't been like major steps forward that have shaken everything up, which is, has a knock on effect. Many episodes ago, we talked about how it was It felt easier than ever to pivot and fi…”
Hu: Anthropic surpasses OpenAI as top API for YC applicants
“And, shockingly, in this batch, the number one API is actually Anthropic. It came out a bit more than OpenAI, which who would have thought?”
Hu: A YC startup's 8B model beat OpenAI on healthcare benchmarks
“There's this particular YCE startup that told me that they collected the best data set for healthcare. And they ended up performing better than OpenAI and a lot of the benchmarks for healthcare with only eight billion parameters.”
Tan: GPT-4 wiped out YC startups' RL fine-tuning lead over GPT-3.5
“You know, we've also had YC companies where, ah, they had something that beat OpenAI, ah, you know, GPT-III.V and they were doing fine-tuning with RL, but then, ah, yeah, GPT-IV and then, ah, GPT-IV came out and, ah, you know, basically blew their fine-tuning …”
Taggar: College students often extract better AI model performance than PhDs
“The technical expertise is now actually really like the missing piece for a lot of these things. And we consistently see, at least in YC, that college students are actually at the forefront of this stuff, like actually understanding how to use the models and h…”
Hu: Cursor scaled from $1M to $100M revenue in one year
“We've seen crazy growth unlike anything, only possible with, right now with AI, like all these companies that we work with, zero to twelve million in 12 months. The cursor story where they went zero to one in one year, the next one to a hundred. This is, like,…”
Tan: Y Combinator uses LLMs internally to evaluate prospective venture investors
“Well, one of the things we've been using LLMs for internally is actually helping founders figure out who they should take money from.”
Altman: The world is astonishingly asleep on the AI platform shift
“I think that's why I'm so excited for startups right now. It is because the world is still sleeping on all of this to such an astonishing degree. And then you have, like, the YC founders being like, no, no, I'm gonna, like, do this amazing thing and do it very…”
Friedman: Software adopted by YC startups predicts future global tech winners
“One thing that we know from running YC for a long time is that whatever the companies in the batch use is a very good predictor of what Like the best companies in the world are using, and therefore what products will be most successful. A lot of YC's most succ…”
Seibel: Every Successful YC Story Began With Widely Dismissed Idea
“Well, I think that's what's so funny is because that's the, every successful YC story, that's the story in hindsight, right? It's like, everyone thought the idea sucked. It was off trend because it was off trend.”
Conformist startup founders mistakenly treat investors as their customers
“You know, one of the things that we say sometimes at YC is that don't make the investor your customer. But a lot of these conformists who are getting into startups, that's what they do. Like they want an idea an investor is going to like, they want to act the …”
Seibel: Giving up massive equity early blocks later-stage funding
“And what they didn't tell that founder is that every subsequent investor would say to themselves, huh, this investor put in a relatively small amount of capital, bought so much of the company that the founders are going to get so diluted that they're not going…”
Seibel: YC Summer 2022 batch valuations held steady at $15M–$25M caps
“Prices are almost exactly the same as they were during the last batch when it was like VC heaven on earth and money was flowing like crazy. We saw. 15 to 25. Some companies raised at 30. Almost no change from the last batch.”
Seibel says 40% of the Summer 2022 batch applied with only ideas
“Literally, 40% of the last batch came in with just an idea. Most of them were working when they applied, were at work, working jobs when they applied.”
Caldwell: Predatory service providers systematically target and exploit struggling startup founders
“We see this a lot with struggling startups. All sorts of people will come out of the woodwork to sell you services or promise they'll connect you with the investors or they'll help you fundraise or you name it. And it's like, it's kind of like moving to Hollyw…”
Seibel: VCs Offer to Invest After YC Admission Despite Earlier Rejections
“I think we see this in practice, too, because we will see founders who will pitch to investors, get no's, apply to YC, get into YC, and those same investors will say, now I want to invest in your company, and nothing has changed. No fundamental thing has chang…”
Taggar: Every YC Startup Has an Apparent Fatal Flaw
“Literally in any YC batch, I could take every single company and like pick out some like fatal flaw. And like, you know that some of them are going to turn out to be worth like billions of dollars, but you can still do it.”
Seibel: Domain-expert investors are often more pessimistic than generalists
“I think sometimes counterintuitively investors who know slightly less about your space can be a little bit more grasses greener, like, optimistic than folks who know more about your space.”
Seibel: Genius is often mistaken for discipline in startup execution
“Too often, genius is mistaken for discipline. It's just like, you know, a lot of people think, oh, this person out executed all their peers because they were smarter, and it's like, that assumes the peers were actually working on the thing they said they were …”
Hard-tech startups find recruiting and fundraising easier than standard software startups
“While launching the product is easy, turning the product into a really big company is actually really hard. Whereas with Boom, it's exactly the opposite. Building a supersonic jet is, like, incredibly hard, but everything else around it is really easy.”
Hale: Investors should figure out how non-obvious startups can win
“His job and the way he sees our work at YC is that it's not to figure out what's wrong with the company, but to figure out how it could possibly when. Cause our bets, the ones that when, are the ones that are non-obvious.”
Caldwell: Consumer startups make up only about 5% of YC's portfolio
“People think that YC funds consumer companies, and this is what our bread and butter is. And like, Yeah, like, I think it's like five percent consumer.”
Seibel: Founders should ignore product feedback from investors and friends
“The kind of community of startup people and or investors usually don't have the problem that you're solving. So if you're using investors as a trigger for, am I solving the right problem? Or like, Do they find this useful? It's almost never the case. I'm almos…”
Graham: Barely any of 1,900 YC startups were killed by competitors
“What makes companies fail most of the time is poor execution by the founders, right? We often talk to startups who are worried about competitors, and one good, one advantage of YC having funded so many companies is you have a really large data set, and like, h…”
Graham: Steve Jobs would have forced Y Combinator to fund him
“Oh, I think actually you would fund him, because Steve Jobs would make you fund him.”
Paul Graham: Startups must do unscalable things early on to grow big
“And what do things that don't scale means is do those things early on anyway, because, you know, if you don't do them, you'll never be big. And so you got nothing to lose.”
Paul Graham: Startup Outcomes Are Fundamentally Indeterminate and Luck-Driven
“The outcomes of startups are hard to predict.
I think to some degree they're actually indeterminate.
There's a huge amount of luck involved, you know and so I think even if Y Combinator were as good at picking startups as you could possibly get.”
Altman: The best businesses have competitive moats but pretend they do not
“All of the really great businesses I know have an answer to this question. And in fact, the better they are, the more they pretend not to.”
Altman: Screwing up the first five to seven hires is almost fatal
“We, we've noticed that it is almost impossible to, you can make a lot of mistakes as a company, but if you screw up the first five, seven hires, it's almost impossible to get through that.”
Buchheit: Great startup ideas are either implausibly ambitious or look frivolous
“Implausibly ambitious or frivolous ideas, and the reason that we're kind of at these two extremes is that if the idea is in the middle, as I mentioned at the start, probably there's like a big company somewhere working on it, or a hundred other startups, and s…”
Buchheit: Founders with perfect resumes often sell early out of fear
“I'm very nervous about people who've always gotten perfect grades. They got into all the right things. They did all the right clubs. The people who have the perfect resume. The people who didn't fuck up. Because these are people who've never failed. And startu…”
Seibel: YC believes a founder's ability to network simply does not matter
“I think investors believe that having the skill to network to an investor is an important characteristic of a good founder, and I think, ah, kind of YC's core position from the beginning is that it's not.”
Seibel: The most hyped YC Demo Day startups rarely perform best
“The most hyped investment on Demo Day is often not the best one. Very, very often. I think what's interesting is that the crowd on Demo Day is just not as smart as it appears”
Seibel: Grade-A investors wire money fast and shut the hell up
“An A investor, grade A investor gives you money quickly, signs the paperwork quickly, shuts the hell up. That's an A investor. There are very, very few A plus investors in the world. There are very, very many less than A investors.”
Altman: Every expected YC success that failed lacked a mission-driven founder
“If we look at our own success and failures in our portfolio of YC, ah, every time we thought a company was going to go really well and didn't the company, the founder, did not have this deep sense of mission.”
Altman: YC strongly prefers multi-founder teams with a technical founder
“Where I've seen that go wrong the most often is then the ability to attract, evaluate, and retain technical talent. And so, we have a strong, strong preference. For founding teams that have at least one technical founder. We also have a strong preference for t…”