The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Benet: Decentralized storage nodes will beat AWS on unit economics
“Our bet there is that yes, that there's a whole bunch of places and cases where Certain individuals or groups in the world have access to either really cheap storage or storage that's positioned well in the network that is kind of like, you know, somewhere bet…”
Juan Benet Jul 1, 2017 ▶ 1:56:18 IPFS, CoinList, and the Filecoin ICO with Juan Benet and Dalton Caldwell · Y Combinator
Disclosure
Werner Vogels: Major investments must materially move the Amazon balance sheet
“Then at Amazon you have to rule that if you do that, If it's going to be successful, it needs to be successful in a way that has significant impact on the Amazon balance sheet. Now, it's not that we're interested in another, let's say, ah, that sounds coy, but…”
Dr. Werner Vogels Nov 11, 2018 ▶ 29:49 A Conversation with Werner Vogels · Y Combinator
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Werner Vogels: Early startups failed due to physical IT infrastructure costs
“So most of those companies that were initially successful around the Amazon catalog All failed. And they didn't fail because they didn't have great ideas. They failed because they couldn't get their IT staff ready, or get the money to actually do, do, do, d…”
Dr. Werner Vogels Nov 11, 2018 ▶ 12:35 A Conversation with Werner Vogels · Y Combinator
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Werner Vogels: 95% of AWS features are direct customer requests
“About 95% of features and services that we deliver are in response to direct requests from our customers.”
Dr. Werner Vogels Nov 11, 2018 ▶ 32:53 A Conversation with Werner Vogels · Y Combinator
Assertion Contradicted
Scholl: Amazon's board and internal staff laughed at Jeff Bezos over AWS
“He was laughed at internally and laughed at by his board when he launched Amazon Web Services. He was laughed at by the world for e-commerce.”
Blake Scholl Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 38:47 Blake Scholl: Breaking the Supersonic Ban · Y Combinator
Disclosure
Legora hot-swaps Claude, Gemini, GPT, and Mistral models interchangeably on AWS
“So we use AWS and Claude and Gemini and GPT and Mistral kind of interchangeably. The biggest thing there has been, how do we build everything in such a way where we can hot swap the models whenever we want, and also build it in such a way that the models becom…”
Max Junestrand Aug 26, 2025 ▶ 24:10 How This 25-Year-Old Built A $675M Legal AI Startup (With No Legal Experience) · Y Combinator
Assertion Supported
EU legal AI requires zero retention and human-review cloud exemptions
“Especially building for Europe. You've got to go through a lot of hassle to kind of conform with all the data processing requirements. So, you know, all data hosted within Europe, nothing for training, no retention. Exemption from human review when you look at…”
Max Junestrand Aug 26, 2025 ▶ 3:12 How This 25-Year-Old Built A $675M Legal AI Startup (With No Legal Experience) · Y Combinator
Insight
Blomfield: Startups must treat cloud and AI credits as cash costs
“So people at AWS, Microsoft, OpenAI, giving out tons and tons of credits to startups. You should treat those as a cash cost. Don't assume you'll have unlimited credits forever. It'll totally mess up your margins.”
Tom Blomfield Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 5:32 How To Price For B2B | Startup School · Y Combinator
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedman: Scribd Was Originally Hosted on Dorm Room Servers Before AWS
“This is before AWS. This is on a physical server. Originally physically in my dorm room closet, which is how I learned that servers are loud.”
Jared Friedman Jun 19, 2026 ▶ 4:01 The Age Of The 40-Year-Old Solo Founder Is Here · Y Combinator
Disclosure
Cheung: Startup School Offers AWS and DigitalOcean Credits and Stripe Atlas
“So we have cloud credits from Amazon Web Services and DigitalOcean and maybe some others and then every company that comes through will be able to incorporate and create a bank account with, through Stripe Atlas.”
Adora Cheung Aug 7, 2018 ▶ 9:35 Geoff Ralston and Adora Cheung Discuss Startup School · Y Combinator
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