AI

“We think artificial intelligence, and in particular deep learning, could be as profound and maybe even bigger.”

“All the serious applications from here on out need to have deep learning and AI inside in exactly the same way that all serious computing systems needed to have Intel chips inside them.”

“So what happened was a series of boom and bust cycles where people would produce this super compelling demo and it would attract a lot more research, a lot more funding, startups, and then those things would run their course and they'd bust. You'd get to some …”

“We didn't have an expert say, here's how you find a cat with nose and paws and whiskers and this shaped eyes and these funny shaped ears. We basically just fed the network a bunch of data, and the data learned to categorize the inputs without any guidance from…”

“All of a sudden, seemingly out of nowhere, artificial intelligence is dominating the R&D agendas of the most important companies in Silicon Valley and outside of Silicon Valley.”

“And I think AI is going to be like that as well, which is it's going to get into every important piece of software.”

“To a large extent, I think, ah, a lot of AI today is really a computationally sophisticated party trick.”

“For autonomy, we are still very much down in the muddy hole in the ground, digging foundations. Mixed reality is just sort of moving out of that to the point that you can throw the frame up. For cryptocurrency, the frame has gone up. We're just trying to work …”

“In fact, I think calling it AI itself is unhelpful. Talking about artificial intelligence is sort of unhelpful. It's more useful first of all, to say machine learning, which is the primary technology we're interested in, to talk about automation, and I think t…”

“Even if we stopped the research pipeline today and said no more research is coming out of the universities, I think we have 20, 3040 years of software development to do to put all the AI inside the apps.”

“We now have 300 earning calls this year where the CEO said something about artificial intelligence being central to their strategy.”

“So fundamentally, I believe that AI is going to get into every piece of software that we write in almost exactly the same way that databases got inside all the software.”

“So the hypothesis here and the opportunity is that this is something that we could do considerably with AI considerably more accurate than people.”

“Stanford has this elective computer science class, and like, you know, the number one class is AI, and the number two is crypto now, in terms of an elective for computer science, so.”

“These kinds of services can't really exist as applications. A, they don't get any traction. Anything that requires machine learning and AI requires massive user bases to start to build out their data sets so that they get all the more powerful, et cetera. So w…”

“One was Tech Knowledge and the other was Symantec. You know, most people don't know that it started as an AI company, but it did.”

“At that point in 62, 63, McCarthy thought it would take him a decade to build a working AI.”

“Anything that's really, really smart is going to have a number of goals that, that anything is going to share, and these are going to be things like self-preservation and gathering resources, if it's sufficiently powerful, then any goal that you can think of, …”

“They are going to be more like aliens or more like animals than they are like humans. I mean, the chances of them being just like humans are very small.”

“But it doesn't feel like current AI certainly The stuff that's in implemented commercially, or even that's published at a research level is really bridging into this area that we're talking about, these rehearsal mechanisms.”

“In the future, rather than the AI necessarily being the stereotype of a robot standing in front of us, it's going to be something that sort of is, is, is, Hidden away on the internet, and there's a kind of ambient presence that goes with us wherever we go.”

“The bits you can automate are the bits that are currently, many of them are bits that are currently done for them by other people. So the typing pool, you know, we've got rid of the typing pool because we all type for ourselves. Factory worker. Exactly. So, yo…”

“Well, if you were to ask me to place a bet at the moment, I would place it on on the big corporation side.”

“As soon as you start within a particular industry category to use AI and get benefit from it, the increased profits you get, you reinvest into more AI. Which means your competitors have to follow suit. So you can't now, now build an Xbox video game without ton…”

“So I think there might be something special this time and one of the indicators of that is the fact that there's so much commercial and industrial in, interest in in, in AI and in machine learning.”

“Because the usual scenario people worry about is we are enslaved by the AIs. But I'm much more interested in the opposite scenario, which is if the AIs are smart enough to be useful, they will demand personhood and rights. At which point, we will be enslaving …”

“I see machine learning as a kind of subfield of artificial intelligence, and it's a subfield that's had tremendously a tremendous amount of success in recent years, and is going to go very, very far, but ultimately, the machine learning components have to be e…”

“What I mean by vicarious embodiment is is that it uses the embodiment of others and to gather data. For example, the enormous repository of videos there are on the internet. There are zillions of videos of people picking up objects and putting things down and …”

“Making machines smart enough to relieve us of the tedium of having to spend our lives doing things that we wouldn't do if we weren't being paid in order to make the world go around. Yeah, so I wanted that to end. But I always knew that that was only the world'…”

“That is like, in a sense, the ultimate reason why all of these things are working is basically because of cloud computing, the scale of the architecture of cloud computing, and the internet that brings all that data in.”

“The whole thing about AI was always, if you actually could find a practical use for one of the techniques, you cross it off the list of AI techniques, and it's like no longer AI.”

“Yeah, and I think this is where we're going to see the next big breakthrough. It won't be one technique in isolation, just like the go, Algorithms, one, on a combination of techniques.”

“Not only did venture funding completely dry out, it was embarrassing to be a professor in that field for a long, long time because it just didn't work.”

“We're not really even at the point yet where we can start to apply all these amazing advances in AI and all this kind of stuff to healthcare, because we still haven't really created that, that decision layer on top of the billions that have been spent on EMRs.”

“As you suggest, we've gone through various cycles in this space, and this is probably the most spring-like spring we've ever had in the sense of interest in the technology, the number of firms that are adopting it.”

“I think that augmentation-oriented future we think is by far the most likely one for how AI travels through the occupational world.”

“We have hundreds of motors that we don't even see in our home, And that's because they succeeded by becoming invisible. And that's sort of, I think the AI is going to become invisible.”

“The Skynet thing I think is cheap. Hollywood trope that is highly, highly unlikely.”

“And so my hypothesis is, is that AI becomes a commodity on the grid. And that it's served like electricity. You purchase it like you purchase electricity to do what you want.”

“AI is going to be very close to that where you can basically take the world's best AI and completely waste it in ways that you couldn't before because it was too precious. And that's when all the new things and innovations and all the new wealth comes is when …”

“I think definitely AIs will be creative. They definitely will, would do creative things, because creativity is like, gonna be like driving. It's like, of course machines can be creative.”

“So people will be paid by how well they work with The AI.”

“I think AI and VR were both overly expected. I mean, they've been expected for such a long time that it's almost hard to, escaping from that is really hard. So, the kind of ones that aren't expected, well, the internet was actually not expected. There's almost…”

“Like the, if you look at the results, like image net's a good, it's a good example where the, you know, it's been the error rates were 30% or something, and now are better than humans.”

“Sort of the all-knowing, wants to be the all-knowing oracle, and you can ask it something, and it will just know the answer, or it'll even suggest it before you do it. Whereas Apple, it's more like, kind of the, I don't know, it's like the servant that follows…”

“So the convergence of, I'd say mathematical foundations and statistical machine learning tools, the big data and the hardware is created this historical moment of AI.”

“The kind of creativity we're talking about blending our logical thinking, emotional thinking, and just, you know, intuitive thinking. And I haven't seen today's any work that builds on the kind of mathematical formulation that would enable that.”

“But now going forward, we're entering what I call the AI in vivo time, which AI is entering real life.”

“We conducted a rigorous evaluation project on this hypothesis. Can humanism increase the interest in AI? And we found a statistically significant difference From the beginning to the, to before and after for these girls thinking. And that particular paper is p…”

“I think the people who could really win at AI are the games companies, the electronic arts and groups like that.”

“You imagine on the real-time render side, that's going to get faster. You're going to have real-time rendered humans and environments that are driven by AI that you can interact with.”

“It will have much better sources of data coming from within your body. So their ability to diagnose emotions will be better than the ability of most, if not all humans.”

“And a disruption of the economy, say by the rise of AI, will require a global solution. And most people who think about universal basic income, they think in national terms. Universal for them means US citizens.”

“Yet when you look at the majority of the complexity in scaling and all the challenges in building a business, a lot of it's very, very People forward and relationship forward. And it's all those kind of softer, kind of tougher elements that right now the world…”

“If anything, actually, what's gonna happen is the programmers are gonna get, the programmers are gonna be higher paid because they're gonna be higher productivity.”

“But the idea that AI is a, is sort of this magic pixie dust that we sprinkle in anything, and therefore all the programmers are going away, it's just, it's, that, I mean, it's just science fiction.”

“What you're expecting is sentience, and what we actually have is just Automation on steroids, which is we can now automate things that we couldn't automate before because we don't have to painstakingly describe the rules behind it. We're just letting the compu…”

“What I'm looking forward to is could an AI create a brand new genre of music that people find desirable, which is, it doesn't sound like anything Today, but it's just this breakthrough new genre. And so, in 10 years, I think we have a shot at doing that.”

“A lot of the things that are quote unquote called AI or artificial intelligence, a lot of times are just fancy ontologies.”

“When you look at the PhD students who applied to Berkeley, PhD applicants. It turns out that well over 60% are applying for AI.”

“Thinking of the corporation itself as a kind of artificial intelligence. And just as Google has an objective function, we've actually told our corporations that they should optimize for share price.”

“You can predict a cumulative probability, like a probability of getting condition X or diagnosis X over a time horizon of five or 10 years. But we are nowhere near saying, you know, you're going to have a heart attack in the next three days.”

“Things like fee for value are interesting because now you're paying people for, say, an accurate diagnosis or for a reduction in hospitalizations, depending on the exact system, and so I think that's the case where actually accuracy is rewarded with greater pa…”

“Like, every use case of AI requires specific tweaking in a massive, massive way.”

“And then the fourth, the most science fiction, and these are the ones I don't give a lot of credibility to, they basically want AA to solve their product market fit problem. So they basically say, I don't really know what company to build, you know, so what I'…”

“The data problem is the first, like, layer in Maslow's hierarchy of AI. Like, you need to actually have the data. Then you need to be able to understand the business context of what you're aiming for and Do a lot of the data engineering to make sure that you c…”

“So there are companies that come in that have been doing, you know, hardcore ML stuff for a long time But they haven't called it AI. They're probably older techniques, probably not the kind of latest DNN stuff or whatever. And then they start calling it AI bec…”

“Two years ago, there weren't that many examples of prominent journals publishing AI and healthcare pieces where it was, you know, shown to work in healthcare context, and now it feels like every month there's a new nature paper or something coming out where, y…”

“This is where AI could really be a part of the key missing link towards the cure to cancer.”

“When you're using deep learning or artificial intelligence, different methods of machine learning, it's really hard to articulate exactly why someone got exactly this loan, and robots would be much better at making that decision than people.”

“Basic fallacy in sort of non-technical people looking at AI in any sense is you see the machine do something, and you think, well, for a human being to be able to do that, they would have to be able to do all these other things. Therefore, the machine must hav…”

“I think there are other kind of silly things that companies do sometimes that are unnecessary, like say things like physicians are going away, right, with AI and deep learning. Yeah, the greatest way to Make us not want to accept your product, right? That kind…”

“Industry doesn't adopt AI. AI is a slew of technologies. It's a new Lego set. Industry is using its own technologies, and what really happens is that industries The medical industry, the healthcare industry, the aircraft industry, The financial industry , they…”

“No, this is a complete revolution. It will take decades to unfold, but it will be on the same scale as the invention of aircraft, right, for the early.”

“We see just all of these wasted efforts, frankly, from many, many players, from subs to GCs to owners. Designers. We see all these wasted efforts that will go away.”

“And I think some of the things that we think are interesting are, for sure, AI, crypto, computational biology, engineered biology, and then the proliferation of computers as it relates to all of those.”

“I don't think that they were disrupted very much by the shift from web to mobile, and I don't think they're going to be disrupted very much by the adoption of AI power software.”

“And by actually hiding AI, you actually drive greater usage. And I would argue that good AI company does is to hide it.”

“These aren't small categories. These are millions and millions of jobs that are being created as we move into this AI environment.”

“Basically, what's really important today is whether one is going to be a Promethean or an Epimethean. When considering AI and advances in technology, foresight is really important, but we tend to be more like Epimetheus and going for the short-term gates.”

“I think the AI is a big opportunity, but it has to be focused, because many organizations right now are chasing the AI and not clear what they're trying to answer, right?”

“The other area, interestingly, in the financial area as well, we find that AI does a great job predicting our free cashflow, predicting a lot of our sales for key products, and it does better than our internal people because it doesn't have the biases and the …”

“Well, I have to first say, I completely agree about the hype cycle here. I mean, as we've gotten quite scaled and working on digital health and data science, we've learned that there's a lot of talk and very little in terms of actual delivery of impact.”

“He's seen the rise of smartphones, and he says he has seen nothing grow as fast in businesses as AI.”

“China has a national top-down goal to be the number one country in AI by the year 2030.”

“You know, I think it's very likely on the current path, these issues will get probably exacerbated. New technologies like artificial intelligence are likely to automate a lot of jobs, and I think these issues and the issues in the prior slide, you'll, I think …”

“Secondly, often biology has very small data sets and that's a real challenge and a differentiator from other areas in AI.”

“Today, what I want to talk about is how AI is industrializing discovery.”

“I believe we're on the precipice now, not just crypto, I think AI and virtual reality, and there's a bunch of really exciting things happening, but we're about to hit that point where you get kind of the iPhone moment”

“Ah, we are going to be the first generation of humans to ever live with AI.”

“You might think it's probably harmless to get some kind of Netflix, Netflix recommendation about the movies you to watch. But the political ads on social networks can be problematic. Medical diagnosis, or even military decisions based on AI, you know, can be d…”

“And because I really believe we cannot accept a future where AI making decisions, ah, that we cannot explain, we cannot understand.”

“The data we collected over the internet has some inherent bias. So if we just blindly use the data to train AI, we know we have problems.”

“Because we now train all this kind of complex models with millions, even trillions of parameters. So effectively we are building AIs as black boxes.”

“The Chinese, as you all know, are using all elements of their capacity, government, The private sector, academia, in complete unison to advance their capacities, whether in biotech, or AI, or you name it.”

“And now, you know, I think the same thing is going to happen with cryptocurrency where in five or 10 years, pretty much every startup that gets created, it's going to use the internet, it's going to use AI, and it's also going to use some form of cryptocurrenc…”

“Well, I don't think the answer is focus on prompt engineering because I wouldn't be surprised if in a very short amount of time, AI gets extremely good at Prompt engineering. And so those people are less, you know, relevant.”

“Okay, so, I mean, it's very hard to be the arbiter of that, but for example, like, deception is bad, right? So when you're altering things, you need to disclose what you altered and how.”

“So I think, you know, the first few, you know, the leaders go, the arrows attack the leaders, right? So I think the first few people who are going to start using AI are going to get backlash, but it's going to get less and less and less and less until it's acc…”

“There's gonna be every gravitational force for the media is gonna push towards the bad because that is what's gonna get more clicks and engagements and views.”

“AI in the mass media, there's sort of this misconception or perception that AI is just this like all powerful thing that's going to replace humans. But I think a more interesting way to think of it is that they are tools and each one is a specific tool for a s…”

“I wouldn't be surprised if that happens within my lifetime, certainly”

“In the metaverse, I think we're going to see virtual environments that are populated and brought to life by AI. In some cases, it's going to be so what you might think, which is non-player characters that Walk around and, you know, deliver the mail or whatever…”

“When AI gets to that point, which I think that's a when, not an if.”

“AI can now step in and equalize the power imbalance between the customer and the company.”

“The technologically empowered doctor 10 years from now is highly unlikely to be spending their day doing that. They are probably going to be spending their day doing things that are actually much more important than that.”

“Actually we may get to some of the expert stuff first. Ah, before it can do even something like humor. The irony is that something like humor that we take for granted might actually be really hard, and other areas might be easier.”

“The ones that I'm most excited about are with like single player games. And then also with multiplayer games where the multiplayer games become personalized, where you actually don't play with other humans anymore. You're playing with perfectly catered AIs.”

“AI kind of broadly gets you this ability to scale up to 100,000 of systems Being able to do a much, much higher volume of activity that's much harder to defeat, it's much harder to counter and you can conduct, you know, warfare in a much more precise and large…”

“In my view, I think there's really four fundamental areas in the defense, you know, space in modern warfare where it's going to be a critical game changer, and I can speak probably relatively intelligently to two of them. And so the four areas being autonomy, …”

“Being able to generate software by talking to your phone It's going to be a very clear thing that will happen. At minimum, being able to like instruct your AIs while you're on the go and review their work, that's obviously going to happen.”

“To me, it feels like it's more worth it today because it's a tide that raises all boats, right? Like we said, the 10 X becomes a thousand X. But like a .1 X becomes a, you know, a 10 X, right? So if you're someone who's previously maybe whose impact with codin…”

“Lawyers really don't want this technology to move forward that much because they realize that a lot of their job is copying and pasting documents. Not all lawyers are like that, but some of them are. And if AI can just do that and replace them, it puts a lot o…”

“Yeah, I think there'll be instant class actions. So right now, the way class actions work is imagine a big cryptocurrency exchange steals all the money... Years of bankruptcy and class actions drag it out. And then almost 10 years later, someone gets a check f…”

“I think sometimes in the future, it's going to be like, that it's going to be just like, you know, when you buy a product from the supermarket, you know, like, you know, what content is going to be like, this is purely human generated. There's only 10% of AI p…”

“The idea that you're gonna, like, reject this and then it's just gonna stop in this tracks is just the most wishful thinking thing I've ever, I can ever imagine, right? So the thing to do is try to, like, identify the parts of it that you don't agree with and …”

“This kind of race to the bottom in a lot of media is going to, like, that bottom's going to hit far quicker because of AI. It's going to be really easy to be good at things.”

“So I think the next product that has the, opportunity to change our habits. I don't know exactly what the product is, but I think it's most likely in the intersection of hardware, software, and AI.”

“All the stuff that we're hearing in American startups is happening in parallel at the exact same speed among the best entrepreneurs that I've been meeting in emerging markets.”

“And we can also say a company like H&M, they have Thousands of data scientists that use AI to do things like forecast trends and understand and analyze supply chain.”

“We're going to see this across the board with AI. It's going to put downward pressure on a lot of different wages from modeling to programming, but that's where it becomes a little bit challenging.”

“When you look at artificial intelligence, I think there's really two ways to look at it. There's one way to look at it, which is lazy artificial intelligence. And that's basically, I have an existing process that my business does right now. I'm going to take t…”

“And quite honestly, it's like fifty-fifty right now, whether or not the government's going to basically bless a cartel of a handful of companies to basically control AI for the next 30 years.”

“And then, you know, on the other side of it, if you, like, read about this in the media or follow the public conversation, there's just this, like, horrifying, basically, you know, sort of onslaught of, like, fear and panic and hysteria about how this is, like…”

“Everything I just said is consistent with what's in every standard economics textbook, textbook as compared to these, like, basically what I consider paranoid conspiracy theories, that somehow the machines will take all the work, humans will have nothing to do…”

“The exact same thing is going to happen in AI. The exact same thing has happened with every other basically form of technology in history. And so the biggest AI companies are going to be the ones that make the technology the most more, most, most, most broadly…”

“No, AI is not going to kill us all. AI is not going to murder every person on the planet.”

“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”

“There is something to generality. There's something to this idea that, like, you can ask it any question, and it will have a way to answer it, and that, and that's, you know, that, that really fundamentally is, is the breakthrough that we're at today.”

“An AI that's smart enough to, like, turn every atom on the planet into paperclips is not going to turn every atom on the planet into paperclips. Like, it's going to be smart enough to be able to say, why am I doing this?”

“There are, you know, there are breakthroughs happening in, in, in open source land on AI right now, like almost on a daily basis.”

“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”

“If we got on the kind of exponential productivity ramp that you're talking about, what would happen is the price of all existing products and services would crash. It basically dropped to zero.”

“You can never replace the spirit and soul of a, there's no way AI could give us Tyrone from Erykah Badu off the cuff, live, with her people. It's impossible to replace that.”

“When you have all of these things happening, you know, macroeconomic climate, when you have, you know, AI creating questions, I think folks are looking for stability more than they were necessarily thinking about. A year or two years ago.”

“I think if you take that same concept and apply it to players and you take the insights, the interest, this data of players and apply it within the context of AI and allow AI to now spit out some of the things that people should be doing based on their interes…”

“I don't think it will get there, because I think that human emotion and the ability that humans have to understand each other and how to make each other feel Is really going to be really hard for AI to pick up on, and so we are able to come up with just that o…”

“If you look at where I think things will go with the evolution of AI, people will want to talk to people, so like community becomes much more important, referral becomes much more important, where the mouth becomes much more important. All of these things are …”

“There may be like AI is somewhat of a tailwind for like maybe 12 months or 18 months for the best people. And then who knows after that, maybe a headwind across everything.”

“And like AI is a phenomenal unlock for product-led growth because product-led growth will get naturally built into every single product because every single product will have a natural language interface. And so like you will actually be able to onboard the pr…”

“And we've seen like AI may be one of the few platform shifts that actually skews towards the monopolies and conglomerates versus like these individual Companies who just get sucked up and there are features of these existing platforms that get kind of skews to…”

“When you work with the AI and all of the interactions are logged a teacher can actually not just introspect on the final outcome, they can introspect on the process.”

“AI and technology is the way out. It is the way to solve these problems. And you know, it's really kind of devastatingly scary that people would like undermine the one technology or the best hope for solving so many of these problems, disease et cetera.”

“I think with AI you know, a lot of these ideas are gonna be pretty hard to enforce, and I think that's actually a good thing. I think that, you know, you can't, Like you can try to outlaw math. You can try to outlaw textbooks. You can try to outlaw open source…”

“We're looking at artificial intelligence and machine learning to automate some of the processes that have been controlled by consultants and therefore very expensive.”

“It's been about 10 years since we've been better than humans at entity identification”

“AI was and still is to some extent very young and is definitely moving very fast. And so when that's the case, really talented generalists can often outperform those who have been in the field for a long time because things are being shaken up so much. If anyt…”

“The next frontier of what a, of the impact that AI can have is when AI starts to touch the physical world.”

“It's impossible to run this instrument without AI being built into it, because you can't even segment the cells. You can't call the barcodes. I mean, all of it is an AI-enabled architecture. Every part of our technology stack is intrinsically AI-enabled.”

“If the original Llama was never released, What would the state of the world and our view of AI be right now? We would be way further behind, right? And A, it was a big model you know, by what existed in open source and it was open sourced. And both of those th…”

“AI will make it so that all of us are able to do more design work in the first place. So lower the floor. For who's able to participate in the design process, but it also raised the ceiling of what you can actually do.”

“Humans are obsessed with humans. Absolutely fucking, like, totally obsessed with humans. So, like, a cheetah's been able to run faster than a human forever, but we only watch humans run against humans. We never watch cheetahs run. The AI can destroy humans in …”

“Within some number of years here, short, I think relatively short number of years, you're gonna have a tool on your laptop, right, that basically is, is like, you work with it, you basically write your script, you know, kind of with AI, and then as you're writ…”

“My understanding is, you know, in China, it's actually, like, a pretty big phenomenon is, like, AI will be the track, but it won't be the lyrics.”

“Our friend Vinod Khosla, I think, had a tweet that got him in a lot of trouble where he said, like, you know, there won't be any more human musicians because the AI would just program whatever feeling, however you want to feel, they just program it for you.”

“The capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is going to be able to do a scan of their face and body, and they're g…”

“AI Causes you as an artist to really rethink and say, okay, my independence now is far more valuable. Because what I create can then be remixed, and in order for me to get an interest in that remix, and that recreate, and that, you know, further use, I actuall…”

“On the other side of this kind of change, typically what happens is a much larger industry with like way more employment, way more output. And I, I'm a hundred percent convinced that's what's going to happen for sure in the tech industry and for sure in, in, i…”

“I think that it'll probably show up as a component first. There's a kind of certain kind of genre of rap music where like okay there's a class of beats that are all very fungible like you know rap over the beat and then the thing that is kind of non-fungible i…”

“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”

“So the utopian scenario is that basically AI is an enabling technology for a level of creativity and also a level of output. So I would say both quality and quantity but a level of creativity and output from, you know, entertainment professionals, creative pro…”

“And so I know the question and the heart of the question is, is we should regulate, you know, AI and this and that. And I think it's the actual opposite. I think we should regulate the regulators and let it be what it wants to be.”

“I think AI needs to be like within the law on that in a very kind of, I would say strict way. You have to respect the deceased artists.”

“It's unlikely that there's, like, some big fundamental restructuring of education, because even if you're, even if AI is, like, a dramatic change in how people learn things. Like even if everybody in the future has an AI tutor and they don't need to wait for t…”

“My guess is it's that second scenario. My guess basically is what we're about to see is something a lot like the microchip or the internet where you're going to have actually, you know, billions of AIs running around sort of with, you know, district, like a py…”

“I do think that that is coming and probably in the relatively short term, I would think in the next several years where anybody with a very interesting creative ideas will be able to basically produce a fantastic, movie, or a song, or a kind of piece of art an…”

“If you look at it, kind of the last 10% is where 99% of the effort goes, and this is true of a lot of AI problems that were built on the old architecture.”

“And you'll be amazed at how quickly you sort of forget that you're talking to an AI and you fall into the flow of a conversation.”

“So many of the biggest games in the world today, you think about Fortnite, Call of Duty, League of Legends, They utilize AI primarily for onboarding and practice.”

“There's also companies like Insilico that, you know, are using AI and trying to reinvent basically how drugs come to the market and the tempo, where what took 5000 people they can do with 50.”

“AI hasn't so far taken away any jobs it doesn't look like, so we'll, we'll see how that goes, or the net, on a net basis.”

“Over the last few years, AI has been dominated by scaling, which is a quest to see what was possible if you threw a ton of compute and data at training these large models.”

“And so low precision environments, Consumer use cases where people are more forgiving and tolerant of mistakes by the model and so on is largely where the bulk of the value has been generated in, in, in AI today.”

“So as the application and infrastructure layers are split, That'll make it a lot easier for new companies to be built. Founders can just build for applications and not have to worry as much about the underlying model as an input to their own company creation.”

“There's a reason that artificial intelligence is a buzzword and artificial empathy is not. And I don't think there is any substitute substitute for just the human accountability.”

“I think if you're kind of just chinning above the bar and you go to four year college to become part of the laptop class, which was a huge employer that, that set of jobs is kind of under a pretty aggressive attack by technology. Interestingly you know, these …”

“I think what I would advocate for educators listening to this, I think what I would advocate is a very kind of stark bar, barbell approach, which is anytime there's a debate or discussion of the form of like, oh my God, is the kid cheating with AI? The very pr…”

“I do think that, that without a counterbalancing force, It will tend to be a centralizing technology in that it will kind of reward companies with large amounts of data and capital. And I argue that this makes the need for blockchain based networks kind of mor…”

“AI is what communism actually is a massive concentration of power and blockchain is what communism is advertised to be, which is power to the people.”

“And I would argue that AI will accelerate the need for the new business models, right? Cause it's going to nuke the model of selling content is going to go to zero. I assume, right? The value will shift to selling community and attention and, you know, partici…”

“So if we had gone the traditional route in trying to address artificial intelligence issues, that would have meant that a number of committees of jurisdiction would have started to hold hearings on artificial intelligence in a very public way. Members of their…”

“I'm gonna, I think, here's what we're probably gonna have. We're gonna have, in the short run, some unsteadiness. Yeah. Right? Because we're trying to learn countermeasures. We're trying to figure out how systems work. We're trying to figure out all sorts of t…”

“So the danger, so, so having been through the rise of the internet very closely, there were things that were very unique to the internet. Things like asymmetric attack, right? The more that you invested in the internet, the more vulnerable you were, and if you…”

“Yeah, I, low, but not non-existent. Yeah. Which is how most of the, You know, doomsday scenarios are. They're low probability, high cost, and we need to hedge against them, but I think, let me say this, the first step in hedging against them is to really seek …”

“When the marginal cost of creation goes to zero, this is going to be another 10 X expansion in, in, in value for sure.”

“The AI learnings of the last couple of decades is not that the technology can't be built, or even that we can't monetize it, we're actually good at all of that, is that this is very hard for startups to build businesses around.”

“So the AI, you know, it's just not a little bit better. It's not like 20% better. It's four orders of magnitude cheaper and faster.”

“With these newer algorithms these are still probabilistic algorithms. Except now the probabilities actually stare you in the face in a way that previous systems didn't push, right? So previous application systems never came up with said, do you want the 49%, t…”

“It doesn't change the equilibrium in the sense that, that, you know, there's going to be more tooling for offense. There's going to be more tooling for defense. This is no like asymmetric superpower, which by the way, is very, very different than the internet.”

“The good news from energy is these systems lend themselves to centralization of data centers, right?”

“The EU seems absolutely determined to ban everything to sort of put a blanket ban on capitalism and within that ban AI and ban energy.”

“So I think by and large, you know, we're looking for sure on AI and then I think probably also in energy, we're probably looking at a primarily a bipolar world for quite a while.”

“I think it's obviously going to be totally transformative in, in, in fields like warfare and you already see that.”

“What I would like to tell you is AI is gonna, you know, be completely transformative for education. I believe that it will.”

“Kids are gonna, you know, kids are gonna grow up with basically, you know, you could use various terms, assistant, friend, coach, mentor you know tutor but you know, kids are gonna grow up in sort of a, this amazing kind of back and forth relationship with AI,…”

“Don't regulate the technology. You don't regulate AI as a technology anymore than you regulated microchips or software or anything like operating systems or databases instead regulate the use cases”

“Why I won't destroy all the jobs and the sort of short version of it is because it's illegal to do that because so many jobs in the modern economy require licensing and are regulated.”

“Every possible threat you can think of AI posing, basically there is a corresponding defense that has to get built.”

“And at least the research, there's been a series of research studies that have been coming back that it, it's actually the uplift average is actually more significant than the uplift to the high skill level. And so actually what seems to be happening right now…”

“Yeah. So the best thing about it is it did not it did not, it didn't overtly attempt to kill AI so that, that, that was good. You never know what these things, you know, what they're gonna, you know, what, how much teeth they're gonna try to put into it, and t…”

“I think we have the best R and D innovation capability in the world and in most fields not, not all, but most. And I think that's certainly true of AI.”

“Too much of the Quora product has been built up around this publication model that is sort of fundamentally premised on the idea that expert time is going to be scarce. And the AI, the LLM time is not scarce in the same way.”

“As far as I can tell, every single use of AI to do something bad is already illegal under current laws and regulations.”

“So we'll, you know, look, we're working on that in Britain. And we look, we've got some pretty good reception from the UK government. There's you know, a lot of very, very smart people there. We're working with them, you know, tightly on their AI and crypto ef…”

“It all depends on the training set, and it also depends crucially on on a stationary distribution, right? So, you know, the reason all this works on is it a cat or not a cat Is that cats change very slowly in evolutionary time. They don't change from day to da…”

“That's going to be an important principle for LLMs and AIs generally as they start agenting and causing change in the world. We have to care a lot about those boundaries.”

“You know, you need to go through front to back extremely quickly that, and so all that, I think this shift towards more of a real time business is something that AI definitely will accelerate the ability to have very complex models of the world and of the econ…”

“So we have set up you know, a working group or a committee that kind of reviews all the ideas when we selected out of hundreds idea of ideas, we've selected about 15 or 19 actually at this point that we're kind of, you know, at different phases of piloting.”

“Compare the invention of AI to the invention of the printing press in a way that it removed a major barrier. First one was a physical barrier. This one is a knowledge barrier.”

“I'm getting a little more Skeptical about the distance between, like, what we can do now with co-pilot to complete human elimination just in terms of the technologies that we've seen. Like, that last that last mile is a long mile, bro. It is not We're going to…”

“There's been this theory for a long time that you basically take, you take input into train and AI, and you get the, have the chips all set up and everything, and then you train it up to a point, you let the training process run for a certain amount of time, a…”

“Maybe it's actually easier to automate the manager job than it is the worker job.”

“I actually think that the analogy doesn't really work for the most part, it works in certain ways, but it doesn't really work for the most part. And the reason is because the internet was a network whereas AI is a computer.”

“This is one thing where AI is really good is, you know, medical diagnosis because it's a super high dimensional problem.”

“Something like that's probably pretty likely to happen in AI where like, you know, every company is going to get funded. We don't need that many AI companies. So a lot of them are going to bust. There's going to be a huge, you know, Huge investor losses. There…”

“I actually think that the analogy doesn't really work for the most part, it works in certain ways, but it doesn't really work for the most part. And the reason is because the internet was a network whereas AI is a computer.”

“Campaigning against crypto because of the like Bitcoin mining, which is like tiny, tiny, tiny compared to what people are using on AI now.”

“Because like in order to actually, if you're really gonna replace actual work and people, you need to start a new company basically. I mean, it's very, very hard to go in and re-engineer the way, you know, Good luck re-engineering the way Boeing works, given i…”

“Yeah, like, I mean, I think, I, that, that's the most overblown fear ever, right? Like, so we've now had this AI revolution started in 2018, and I think unemployment has gone nowhere but down since then. And, you know, like, they're gonna take all our jobs. Ev…”

“As AI matures, these mafias of talent or hubs of talent are spinning out of different research labs, different universities, and kind of building these different communities of founders around the globe, which is very cool.”

“And I think the answer in many cases is that the best and most interesting products are actually new interfaces that are just now enabled due to AI.”

“And I fully expect this trend to continue, and it's obviously what we're seeing with AI right now.”

“Basically, I think anything with a chip is gonna have an AI, and you're just gonna, you just basically, you're just gonna assume that everything has an AI and there's gonna be, you know, many billions of tiny models running everywhere. There's gonna be a few b…”

“You could imagine looking back in a decade and being like, I can't believe people used to watch, you know, static videos at all. Like, it just doesn't make any sense. It's like watching a silent movie. Obviously, videos should be, like, responsive in real time”

“When I look at AI, what I see is sort of a new kind of computer, like a fundamentally new kind of computer... It's a probabilistic computer and you ask the same question twice, it gives you different answers, which is just in and of itself a pretty mind blowin…”

“So I think the immediate part is something that is so good, like not 10% better than what you have now, but like 10 X better than what you have now, that the adoption becomes natural. Or so easy to adopt that even 10% better could work.”

“With all this data AI is great, especially certain types of AI, like Bayesian statistics, are really good at causality. And so we could actually have causal understanding.”

“Where the AI comes in, one idea is a co-pilot, which is like each one of the team members has a co-pilot. But what's interesting about the data is this is like, The AI is a peer, you know, contributor, you know, more of the team and has its role that actually …”

“At this last JP Morgan conference, like, a hundred percent of the incumbent, you know, payers and providers got up on stage and talked about not just what they want to do with AI, but how they're actually deploying AI in practice”

“Like, I'm working on, like, something, you know, in drug design or whatever to make big leaps and bounds, and small things for big cash flows can have a huge impact. So something for clinical trials could be huge, or even just picking, like, the order of rank …”

“Yeah, the funny thing about that idea is, I mean, it's a very exciting idea, because we could gain so much knowledge, and we could improve healthcare so much, but like, it's a ridiculous thing to imagine doing, like, without something like AI. Without AI, I do…”

“Again, ironically, and some, and to your point, ironically, some of the companies that are lobbying hardest for regulatory capture and cartel, you know, kind of government cartel status for AI are companies that exist today because the internet was open.”

“It's going to be a cornerstone technology for economic growth. Like if it's allowed to play, like if it's allowed to play out the way that it should, I think it's, you know, what's going to follow is at least the equivalent of the internet boom of the 19 ninet…”

“Nobody has built anything anywhere that's on the way to sentience”

“And so it's interesting because AI has become so useful because we've got so much more measurement technology, right? Cheap measurement technology. So we can do, you know, we can do generalized sequencing, cheap, we can do RNA seq, we can do the single cell ty…”

“But the big win, as I think about it, is like in the sort of value-based care sense, like in the sort of not the sick care fee-for-service sense, but in the truly keeping us healthy sense. If AI can get out in front of things, Then hopefully, you know, we decr…”

“Yeah, so, so AI is going in the Moore's Law direction, and healthcare is going in the other one. Sooner or later, AI's gonna be way cheaper.”

“And now I think we're in the middle of a Cambrian explosion. In almost a literal sense, because now in addition to texts, you're seeing pixels, videos, audios, all coming out with possible AI applications and a model.”

“The previous decade had mostly been about understanding data that already exists. But the next decade was going to be about understanding new data.”

“I like the definition of this. That's sort of like, you know let's say 80 plus percent of jobs that you, that people can do purely at computers, so digital focused jobs are accomplishable with, you know, AI can accomplish those jobs.”

“We're lucky right now because the state of AI as a science is incredibly new, and it truly has a wide green field. And unlike lots of other areas of science where if you look at something and you think, why hasn't somebody done X, Y, and Z? Unfortunately, ofte…”

“I think AI is probably the most important one I'd like to say, you know, over the last 30 years, 40 years, 50 years because it It's something more than just technology. I mean, it really is, you know, AI becomes the ability for us all to become smarter, more p…”

“I think even large, large enterprises who typically used to be, let's call it much more conservative in working with startups are also, becoming much more open because again, this is back to the disruption I talked about. Nobody wants to be behind in AI.”

“And, you know, for us at AMD you know, my belief is AI is gonna be everywhere in every product that we build”

“And I think there's something serious here going on, which is like, this is a, this is an example of maybe the first example of like a convergence point, basically between AI and crypto.”

“Like it's, and by the way, like, I think it's fair to say if we knew how to do it, we would invest in that. And we have not yet.”

“I think the good news is the education curve on AI is on a much faster ramp than it was on crypto which is nice. People are just now understanding blockchain and crypto issues.”

“Anthropomorphize the machine in this fucked up way, you know, like in a way that's just not realistic. I mean, when we do that with everything, you know, as humans, we like think of everything as us. But yeah, it's a big giant. I mean, you know, like it's lite…”

“The leader in AI is very likely getting to be the economic leader in the world, the military leader in the world, the cultural leader in the world”

“There are bottlenecks that are moving around. So there's a data bottleneck. Now it's going to be followed by an energy bottleneck. You know, it started with a chip bottleneck, you know, then we went to data bottleneck, then there'll be an energy bottleneck, pr…”

“Right now it's a lot of math. It's doing some neat automation stuff. It is absolutely not sentient. It's not self-improving.”

“AI is not going to replace like a very high quality sales process. Like you need to figure out who your customer is. You need to figure out what they want and you need to build the best product and the right process around that to be effective. And so like tha…”

“The first shift we're going to see is the shift from being the doer. So I'm not writing the email, but I'm reviewing the email. So doer to reviewer.”

“We generally look at professional services verticals that are ripe for AI under the lens of, okay, where are there a lot of highly paid people who are doing, in many cases, repetitive work that probably could benefit from smarter automation”

“There are some early signs that insurance companies are creating actual billing codes for AI, where they now say that, you know, an AI enabled, you know, visit or an AI enabled diagnostic can now be reimbursed Differentially, and you can get, you know, sort of…”

“And to do so, you need to have a very different view on returns and you need to have a very different view on short term earnings. Because what will end up happening is like, turns out engineers, Pretty expensive. Right. And it requires like significant invest…”

“One is a very well-known company called Danaher. There's another one called Tyler Technologies based out of Texas. These are like probably the best examples of these businesses historically, but again, they're not AI native, right? And I, and they're basically…”

“The way the internet worked out was there essentially ended up being two internets, right? The Chinese internet and the rest of the world. AI may not be, end up looking that different.”

“AI has already percolated throughout society at one of the fastest diffusion rates of any general purpose technology.”

“What's exciting about AI is that it's taking this filing cabinet and now allowing actions on the filing cabinet. And that's what I think is really revolutionary, because you can actually ask the software filing cabinet application, like Workday, hey, I want to…”

“On the one thing that I think AI cannot do and in fact, if anything, it kind of commoditizes, like if you have an AI sales rep, like Salesforce, why do I need seats for salespeople if AI is doing selling, but AI cannot build a relationship with somebody over g…”

“If we come back to financial services, there's a lot of pretty terrible systems of record where smart people have tried to get them ripped and replaced and just, it was just not gonna happen. And my new conclusion with AI is not that they would never do it. It…”

“So when I think about, like, where AI is going to drive The most value for warfare. It is dealing with the scale problem, which is really like the amount of information that is the number of sensors, like the sheer volume of systems that are going to be fielde…”

“Artificial intelligence, like electricity, like it, it's just a part of so much of the organization. It would be foolish, dangerous, and probably impossible to try to strip out all those elements and centralize them into one place.”

“We've been using AI for decades. It's inherent in everything we do in fraud detection, right?”

“And then you look at Apple and their strategy, which the execution hasn't been great, but the idea that all of these things will just surface as features popping up all over my phone and they're not going to cost anything. My data is not going to go anywhere. …”

“There's no way this doesn't play out like the internet.”

“I would bet, I don't know this as a fact, I'll bet Meta's spending more money on VR than it is on AI right now.”

“One of the big pieces and unlocks that had the experience was coming to the realization that nobody knows what to use AI for. Like, you know, people pretend to go and create all these amazing demos, but nobody knows what to do with it.”