An Epoch AI researcher projects overall job displacement numbers caused by AI capabilities on The a16z Podcast.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Epoch AI: Human-level AI means 30% GDP growth or human extinction
“Assuming in the next 10 years we get AI that is capable of doing any remote job as well as any human. I think, you know, 30% GDP growth seems like a lower bound on something that's reasonable. Assuming you get, this is a big assumption that a lot of people are…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Epoch AI: 20-30% chance AI causes sudden 5% unemployment spike
“The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance something like this will happen in the next decade is like, you know, a five percent increase in unemployment over, over a very short period of time, like six months, due to AI.”
Insight
Epoch AI: Energy availability will not bottleneck AI scaling
“At the end of the day, though, it's just like, does not, there seem to be enough solutions, especially if you are as willing to pay as you, as people are in AI, that I don't really expect it to be a significant bottleneck.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Epoch AI: AI labs would be highly profitable if they paused scaling
“Right now the amount of money companies are actually earning in profit, not including the cost to develop the models initially, is, seems to be, like, very positive, such that if they stop developing bigger and bigger models, and just stick with the ones they'…”
Assertion Supported
Epoch AI: No slowdown in AI capabilities has been observed yet
“Yeah, I don't, I definitely don't think we've seen any slowdown yet in capabilities from any of these concerns people have.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Epoch AI: Current trends project a few percent GDP boost by 2030
“My best guess on current trends is this fairly well-defined, you know, few percent of GDP in 2030 thing, which is already pretty crazy by economic standards.”