Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: VR will become the most social medium ever
“Like I think that VR will be the most social of all the social media ever.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Artificial intelligence will definitely achieve creativity
“I think definitely AIs will be creative. They definitely will, would do creative things, because creativity is like, gonna be like driving. It's like, of course machines can be creative.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Advertisers will bypass agencies to pay influencers directly
“I think this is one of the shifts that I can see coming, which is that we kind of flip things around, and you have a reverse market, so to speak, for attention, where you're paying the high influencers directly, not going through the ad agencies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Future workers will be paid based on AI collaboration skills
“So people will be paid by how well they work with
The AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Humans will specialize in interpersonal roles over next 20 years
“I think what humans are going to be good for in the next 10 to 20 years is these interpersonal roles, like, you know, nursing at home coaching experiences, again, coming back to experiences, and asking questions, and so I think
If you want to answer, you're go…”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: Any job defined by efficiency will ultimately be automated
“Any job that can be specified or can be specified in terms of efficiency or productivity is a job that humans should not be doing, and it will be a job that would go to the bots.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Software will dominate for 25 years before biotech eclipses it
“20, 25 year horizon that I'm talking about. So, so I think beyond that, yes, I think it's wide open, but I think, you know, for the next 25 years, I think this is what I'm talking about. I think computer science will continue to run everything. Software will c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kelly: Real-time universal voice translation will integrate millions into the global economy
“And we could very quickly have universal language translation of speaking over yours, and I think people underestimate the change that that would bring about in the world. You'd have millions of people who are highly skilled in everything except the skill of E…”
Insight
Kelly: Technology leapfrogging is a myth for developing nations
“The idea of leapfrogging technology is a myth. It doesn't really work. You actually have to, if you want to have a high tech infrastructure, you actually need the intermediate roads, clean water. You can't skip over that, and so they all need to be built out i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Life tracking will increase over the next 30 years
“So I would suggest that I can't see any counter force where there will be less tracking of our lives in 20 or 30 years. There's going to be more of it.”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: Law should follow technology rather than precede it
“I think the job of law is to kind of put into place what has been worked out In other places. And so I think in a certain sense, the law is going to follow the technology and shouldn't really precede it.”
What-if
Kevin Kelly: The music industry lost ground by fighting digital copying
“I mean, can you imagine if the music industry had accepted? From the front. I mean, how far ahead they would have been if they say, okay, this is inevitable, this copy thing. We're not, we're just going to try and work with it. You know, there's things to adju…”
Assertion Supported
Kevin Kelly: TV networks earn 20 cents per hour per viewer
“The amount of attention that you give to a TV, you'll get 20 cents an hour is what they're earning for your attention.”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: The internet is shifting from information to experiences
“One is that we're moving from an internet of information to the internet of experiences, right? So that's the currency, is experiences.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Most VR content will be lightweight meme-like experiences
“Because that's what's going to, most of the stuff in VR will be low cats.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: AI will become a commoditized grid service like electricity
“And so my hypothesis is, is that AI becomes a commodity on the grid. And that it's served like electricity. You purchase it like you purchase electricity to do what you want.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Skynet-style AI apocalypse is highly unlikely
“The Skynet thing I think is cheap. Hollywood trope that is highly, highly unlikely.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Innovation will explode when AI compute is cheap to waste
“AI is going to be very close to that where you can basically take the world's best AI and completely waste it in ways that you couldn't before because it was too precious. And that's when all the new things and innovations and all the new wealth comes is when …”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: Inventors rarely know how their technology will ultimately be used
“Most of the inventors don't even have any idea what the technology really ultimately be used for.”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: Anything digital touching the internet will inevitably be copied
“So the internet is the largest copy machine in the world by nature. It's inherent in the thing. Anything that can be copied that touches it will be copied.”
Insight
Kevin Kelly: Digital sharing economy is still at day one
“So sharing, just generally sharing, even though it's been going on for 20 years or more, I think we're still at the day one, day two of this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: Planetary-scale collaboration will become standard within 30 years
“That's still something where it's way beyond in terms of what most people are even imagining, but I think that's what we're going to be doing in the next 1020 to 30 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: AI will succeed by becoming invisible to everyday users
“We have hundreds of motors that we don't even see in our home, And that's because they succeeded by becoming invisible. And that's sort of, I think the AI is going to become invisible.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kevin Kelly: AI and VR were expected, while the internet was unexpected
“I think AI and VR were both overly expected. I mean, they've been expected for such a long time that it's almost hard to, escaping from that is really hard. So, the kind of ones that aren't expected, well, the internet was actually not expected. There's almost…”
Kevin Kelly