Dwarkesh Patel, podcast host, discusses macroeconomic growth rates post-AGI on the a16z Podcast with host Eric Vishria.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dwarkesh Patel: Post-AGI, humans will not have high-paying jobs
“Once we get AGI humans will not have high paying jobs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Current AI is not AGI because models cannot learn over time
“And they actually don't, they can't like learn over the course of six months, how to become a better editor for me or how to become a better transcriptor for me. And since a human hire would be able to do this, they can't. So therefore it's not AGI.”
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Patel: Solving continual learning in AI is many years away
“It's precisely because I don't have an obvious solution that I think we're many years away.”
Insight
Patel: AI forecasters underestimate tasks required for total job automation
“I think the problem has been that people underestimate how many things are truly needed to automate human labor, and so they think, like, we've got reasoning, and now that we've got reasoning, we've, like, this is what it takes to take over a job, and I think,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Galactic colonization will be physically possible post-AGI
“I'm not saying this is the world I want. I'm just saying like, just like, think about it physically. If you're colonizing the galaxy, which you can do potentially after AGI. I mean, I'm not saying like it'll happen tomorrow after AGI. Right. But like, there's …”
Insight
Dwarkesh Patel: Asset Ownership Will Protect Wealth If AI Devalues Labor
“One is even if your labor is not worth that much the property you own is potentially worth a lot, right? Like if you own an S&P 500, And there's been explosive growth. You're like a multi multi-millionaire or the land you have is like worth a lot.”