AI

also referred to as: ai intelligence · ais · artificial intelligence

739 statements across 327 episodes · 349 bullish · 205 bearish · 254 people on the record · first statement Feb 23, 2015 by Kyle Lui · across every show →

Everything said about AI, oldest first

Feb 23, 2015 bullish
Disclosure
Lui focused on mobile on-demand, drones, AI, and enterprise in 2015
“Me, personally, I've been looking, ah, a ton into Mobile-enabled services, so sort of the on-demand space. I've also been actively looking at drones and the drone space and AI, which is quickly emerging and as you, and also obviously enterprise software, given…”
Kyle Lui Feb 23, 2015 ▶ 14:17 20 VC 014: Acquired by Salesforce turned VC with Kyle Lui
Nov 25, 2015 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waterhouse: AI self-awareness and existential risk are still far off
“I think we're a long way from a way where suddenly the AI becomes self-aware and, switches on the nuclear bombs.”
Daniel Waterhouse Nov 25, 2015 ▶ 18:38 20 VC 091: Daniel Waterhouse @ Balderton Capital on Investing Styles, Venture Landscapes and The Future of AI
Nov 30, 2015 bullish
Prediction Held up
AI will infiltrate every enterprise software category within five years
“I think I'm seeing a lot of kind of AI, not AI platforms, but AI being infiltrated across every segment of enterprise software. And I'm also seeing a lot of stuff where messaging is going from consumers to the enterprise as well. Messaging meaning you know, al…”
Ed Sim Nov 30, 2015 ▶ 22:22 20 VC 092: The Repeatable Playbook of SaaS with Ed Sim, Founding Partner @ BoldStart Ventures
Jan 25, 2016 positive
Insight
Bryan Johnson: Modern technology allows humanity to program its own existence
“I spent, during that time, a lot of, spent a lot of time reading science and technology and trying to figure out where the human race was going, and I came to, like, was one realization that changed my outlook and my understanding forever, my relationship with…”
Bryan Johnson Jan 25, 2016 ▶ 2:59 20VC: Bryan Johnson @ OS Fund & Braintree on Investing In The Operating Systems Of Life & Why VC Should All Be Open Source
Feb 15, 2016 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arielle Zuckerberg: AI integration will become standard like cloud storage
“The product was artificial intelligence that you integrated into your product, but I don't know, I think that in the future, it'll kind of be like storing things in the cloud, like, it'll be assumed and expected that you have integrated artificial intelligence…”
Arielle Zuckerberg Feb 15, 2016 ▶ 13:47 20VC: Arielle Zuckerberg @ Kleiner Perkins: A Review Of My First 6 Months in Venture
Mar 18, 2016 bullish
Prediction Held up
Mehta: Consumers will transact directly with conversational AI assistants
“Not only would consumers be talking with an AI They would actually transact with one.”
Puneet Mehta Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 13:31 Pre-YC Demo Day: Msg.ai's Puneet Mehta on The Rise of AI, The Potential For Messaging and Life As A Current YC Startup
Mar 18, 2016 positive
Opinion
Mehta: WeChat and WhatsApp represent ideal platforms for AI applications
“When I saw the messaging revolution essentially take off with what WeChat is doing in China, and what businesses are trying to do by using WhatsApp in India, you know, instead of giving their phone number, they now give you their WhatsApp ID. And I was like, o…”
Puneet Mehta Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 2:54 Pre-YC Demo Day: Msg.ai's Puneet Mehta on The Rise of AI, The Potential For Messaging and Life As A Current YC Startup
Apr 13, 2016 negative
Disclosure
Bloomberg Beta avoids the term AI due to sci-fi humanoid connotations
“So we actually try to avoid talking about AI. And the reason is AI has come to mean both the cluster of all those techniques and the Like replicating human intelligence with something that feels humanoid and, you know, is out to get you like in Ex Machina or s…”
Roy Bahat Apr 13, 2016 ▶ 7:52 20VC: Why Machine Intelligence Will Eat The World Of Software with Roy Bahat, Head of Bloomberg Beta
Apr 25, 2016 bullish
Prediction Held up
Wise: Europe's next $100B tech giants will focus on AI, fintech, fashion
“They're going to go and build the third wave, which is the 10, fifty, hundred billion dollar companies. And they're obviously not going to be competitive with the types of companies built in San Francisco in the same fields, not in sort of the information sear…”
James Wise Apr 25, 2016 ▶ 9:07 20VC: Europe's Youngest Series A Venture Partner, James Wise @ Balderton Capital on How To Get Into Venture & What The Future Of The VC Industry Looks Like
May 25, 2016 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: AI is extremely overhyped and largely fictitious
“We think AI is extremely overhyped. And also kind of fictitious.”
Sam Lessin May 25, 2016 ▶ 7:35 20VC: Sam Lessin on Why Bots Will Change Business & The Internet Has Mostly Failed
May 30, 2016
Opinion
Turck: AI is a direct child of big data
“AI from my perspective is very much a child of big data.”
Matt Turck May 30, 2016 ▶ 17:14 20VC: Is Big Data Still A Thing with Matt Turck, Managing Director at FirstMark Capital
Jul 20, 2016 bullish
Opinion
Artificial intelligence is as fundamentally disruptive as the early web
“And the next big wave, as we talked about, AI is, Is almost as fundamentally disruptive as the web was.”
Alex Bangash Jul 20, 2016 ▶ 12:24 20VC: Why The Whole Industry Is Backward Looking, The Best Funds Are Entrepreneur Led and Venture Is All About Access with Alex Bangash, Founder @ Trusted Insight
Oct 19, 2016 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
James Cham: AI will transform society without altering fundamental human identity
“To be honest, I don't know that AI is gonna be necessarily that different. Which is say all those other technologies were incredibly transformative, and this will be another example. And people who come from a thousand years ago will look at us and sort of mar…”
James Cham Oct 19, 2016 ▶ 21:05 20VC: Greenfield Opportunities For Machine Learning, Why Massive Corporates Finally See It's Potential & Why VC's Investment Decision Making Process Needs To Change with James Cham, Partner @ Bloomberg Beta
Oct 26, 2016 positive
Insight
Wong: AI will never cause widespread permanent human unemployment
“By definition, you'll never be unemployed because humans are going to figure that out. So do I believe humans will figure shit out? Yes.”
Leon Wong Oct 26, 2016 ▶ 21:23 20VC: Why You Don't Have To Have Operational Experience To Be A Good VC, Why There Is No Optimal Stage To Invest & Why VCs Should Focus on Reputation Ahead of Cash On Cash Returns with Lyon Wong, General Partner @ Spectrum 28
Nov 9, 2016
Insight
AI's fundamental distinction is continuously self-improving software
“No, I think that's only a facet. I think the fundamental difference is about having a software that it's effectively to have systems that continuously self-improve. That, that is transformational.”
Rudina Seseri Nov 9, 2016 ▶ 22:18 20VC: Who Will Own The Data? Is There An Incumbency Advantage in AI? When Will Artificial Super Intelligence Come To The Forefront with Rudina Seseri, Founder and Managing Director @ Glasswing Ventures
Nov 9, 2016
Insight
AI cannot replace human execution in building a successful startup
“There is no artificial intelligence that replaces human execution.”
Rudina Seseri Nov 9, 2016 ▶ 9:01 20VC: Who Will Own The Data? Is There An Incumbency Advantage in AI? When Will Artificial Super Intelligence Come To The Forefront with Rudina Seseri, Founder and Managing Director @ Glasswing Ventures
Nov 21, 2016
Insight
Ocko: First entity controlling semi-AGI gains imperceptible advantage over competitors
“Whoever gets that AI first, not only has a huge advantage, but an advantage that is beyond the reach of human intellect to perceive until they have quote unquote lost the game.”
Matt Ocko Nov 21, 2016 ▶ 12:33 20VC: Data Collective's Matt Ocko on The Dark Side Of AI & What Happens When 3-4m People Become Unemployed Overnight
Nov 21, 2016 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ocko: AI will vastly reduce the 10,000 hours required for mastery
“The people who are creative or have an interesting idea may find themselves lifted up by even this simpler AI so that the, you know, 10,000 hours required today to become an expert in something can be vastly reduced.”
Matt Ocko Nov 21, 2016 ▶ 13:28 20VC: Data Collective's Matt Ocko on The Dark Side Of AI & What Happens When 3-4m People Become Unemployed Overnight
Nov 28, 2016 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI taking over the world is not happening anytime soon
“I think some of the things that people are worried about are way outside the realm of our lifetime. I don't believe the machines are going to take over the world any meaningful time soon.”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 28, 2016 ▶ 26:08 20VC: Why Market Is More Important Than Team, The 4 Key Roles of A Board Member & Why Founders Get Market Sizing So Wrong with Rory O'Driscoll, Founding Partner @ Scale Venture Partners
Dec 30, 2016 bearish
Prediction Held up
Banta: AI will not replace investors, founders, or marketers near term
“I don't think in the near term you're going to have a machine fully replace the way, you know, venture investors work, fully replace the way startup founders work, podcast producers or marketers.”
Nitesh Banta Dec 30, 2016 ▶ 20:58 20VC: How AI Can Enhance Not Replace Humans? What Will Differentiate Between The Winners & The Losers In AI? Why AGI Is Further Away Than We Think with Nitesh Banta, Founder & CEO @ B12
Jan 13, 2017 negative
Insight
Nelson: Grouping all AI products together is as flawed as web apps
“I think the problem is largely with thinking about those things as synonymous to each other. It's kind of like saying that everybody who builds a web app is competing in the same category, right? It's kind of like saying that just a software app like MyFitness…”
Maren Nelson Jan 13, 2017 ▶ 12:31 20VC: Building An AI Company For The Long Term? How Humans & Machine Learning Can Work Together? What Applications Are The Conversational Interface Best Suited To with Maran Nelson, Founder & CEO @ Clara Labs
Jan 25, 2017 neutral
Insight
Guo: AI is an enabling technology, not a distribution platform
“AI is the enabling technology, but people are talking about AI itself as a platform, but it's not distribution and ecosystem.”
Sarah Guo Jan 25, 2017 ▶ 9:12 20VC: Preparing For The Next Big Trend, Why Conversational Will Be The Next Big Thing & How Entrepreneurs Should View Market Size with Sarah Guo @ Greylock Partners
Feb 22, 2017 neutral
Insight
Powerful AI technology is insufficient without user research and product design
“I think just having a great AI is not going to be enough. You need to actually like also marry that with great research, great product design, make it useful.”
Ben Blumenfeld Feb 22, 2017 ▶ 12:57 20VC: Why Venture Is A Service Product? Why There Is No Such Thing As Product Market Fit & Why Startups Need To Be More Design Orientated with Ben Blumenfeld, Co-Founder & General Partner @ Designer Fund
Mar 3, 2017 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frontline workers will become most valuable as AI automates enterprise answers.
“Because the answer will become easy when we have AIs. Then I think there'll be a whole new bunch of employees. Actually, those at the bottom of the organization, those that are closest to the customer, they'll become the most valuable because they have very in…”
Dennis Mortensen Mar 3, 2017 ▶ 21:02 20VC: Why Product Market Fit Is Like Porn, How The Entrance of Facebook and Google Into Enterprise Software Effects Traditional Enterprise Companies & The Future Pricing Model For The Enterprise with Dennis Mortensen, Founder @ X.ai
Mar 13, 2017 negative
Opinion
Grady: Rejects Elon Musk's existential fears about artificial intelligence
“My Personal view is it's one of these things that the more we know, the more we realize we don't know, and that there is some magic in being human that we will never be able to replicate. And so, I personally do not have the Elon Musk fears of artificial intel…”
Pat Grady Mar 13, 2017 ▶ 17:34 20VC: Sequoia Partner, Pat Grady on Why Data Is The New Oil, Why We Will See The Return of The Apprenticeship Model in VC & The Defining Characteristics of The Next Generation of Great Software
Mar 22, 2017 negative
Insight
Alex Mittal: Current AI is fancy data processing, not true intelligence
“This is, like, more fancy processing of data that leads to more cases where you can automate things that previously were not automatable, but it's not intelligence.”
Alex Mittal Mar 22, 2017 ▶ 17:42 20VC: How Every VC Firm Is A Marketplace, Why A Large Amount of Promise in AI Today Is Impossible & Entrepreneurs 3 Main Pain Points of Fundraising with Alex Mittal, Founder & CEO @ Funders Club
Mar 22, 2017 negative
Opinion
Alex Mittal: Many AI startups promise what is fundamentally impossible
“The bad news is that I believe we're in a point in time where, and this is, you know, I think I mentioned that this is like blasphemy for me to say as a VC, given, you know, AI is sort of hot right now, but we're in an era where what is being promised by a lot…”
Alex Mittal Mar 22, 2017 ▶ 13:56 20VC: How Every VC Firm Is A Marketplace, Why A Large Amount of Promise in AI Today Is Impossible & Entrepreneurs 3 Main Pain Points of Fundraising with Alex Mittal, Founder & CEO @ Funders Club
Mar 24, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will very soon completely commoditize automated manufacturing
“Very soon, that will be completely commoditized. And again, AI will do the same to manufacturing that it's doing to software.”
Christian Lanng Mar 24, 2017 ▶ 4:46 20VC: How To Raise $200m In Any Economic Climate, Scale From Garage To Global In Record Time & The Biggest Startup You Have Not Heard About with Christian Lanng, Founder & CEO @ Tradeshift
May 22, 2017 negative
Opinion
Hartz: Silicon Valley VC is overly segmented into niche, afterthought verticals
“And I think what's happened today is there's been this overly segmented kind of focused investing in, in areas that in many ways are just afterthoughts so there's funds that are just focused on AI or funds that are Just focus in other particular verticals, and…”
Kevin Hartz May 22, 2017 ▶ 11:27 20VC: Founders Fund's Kevin Hartz on Why Investing In Silicon Valley Is Broken & Why Fearlessness Is What Makes The Truly Great Investors
May 26, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sean Rad predicts AI and AR will make Tinder simpler
“And then I would say on a five-year horizon, it would be to continuously make Tinder even more simple. And I know that that sounds crazy because Tinder is already very simple, but I think as technology gets better, as the ways we interact with, as AI and AR co…”
Sean Rad May 26, 2017 ▶ 22:04 20VC: Tinder's Sean Rad on Why Humility Is The Key Trait For Founders To Have, Why Today's Incumbents Are Stronger Than Any Before Them & How Leaders Need To Scale With The Scaling Of Their Company
May 29, 2017 bearish
Insight
Zaveri: Value in AI comes from vertical applications, not infrastructure
“I look at it from a vertical application standpoint, not from just Hey, we want to have the best models, the best sort of, you know, technology, and we're just going to sell enabling technology, you know. No one buys programming languages. And in the same way,…”
MZ Zaveri May 29, 2017 ▶ 16:58 20VC: Kleiner Perkins' MZ Zaveri on Why Success In Venture Is About The 3 F's, How VCs Can Manage Deal Heat & Is There Too Much Venture Dollars At Seed
May 31, 2017 bullish
Opinion
Ascher: Google Photos is an underrated example of artificial intelligence
“Google Photos, to me, is not getting nearly the credit and discussion it deserves For being a truly remarkable example of artificial intelligence.”
Brian Ascher May 31, 2017 ▶ 21:08 20VC: How Both Founders & GPs Should Construct Their Pitch, Why VCs Are Eternal Optimists & What Makes The Best Post-Investment VC/Founder Relationship with Brian Ascher, Partner @ Venrock
Jun 28, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kurzweil: Next Developer Platforms Will Tackle AI and Deep Learning
“I think the next frontier is to take the deeper technical challenges, the data science, the artificial intelligence, which is, I know, a very hot buzzword these days, but the, you know, the practical applications of it are going to be real, as well as neural n…”
Ethan Kurzweil Jun 28, 2017 ▶ 8:42 20VC: Bessemer's Ethan Kurzweil on How To View Pattern Recognition and Deal With The Anti-Portfolio, The Next Frontier In Developer Focussed Businesses & Why eSports Is Interesting Again
Jul 5, 2017 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schuler: Exclusive machine-to-machine trading will cause financial markets to fail
“When machines start trading with each other, the markets will disappear because We need the uncertainty of humans to make those markets, markets work.”
Barry Schuler Jul 5, 2017 ▶ 18:38 20VC: How To Get Back To 200 Tech IPOs Per Year, Why We Are In A 'Bulge" Not A Bubble & The Impending Flat & Down Rounds To Come with Barry Schuler, Partner @ DFJ Growth
Aug 2, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Max Gazor predicts 2017 AI will mirror 2007 cloud computing boom
“I think that we are in a time With AI today, where cloud was about 10 years ago, and we're going to see a tsunami of innovation associated with companies and entrepreneurs thinking about ways to apply AI towards more traditional software products.”
Max Gazor Aug 2, 2017 ▶ 22:16 20VC: When Should CEOs Ask Their VC For Help, When Do Companies Really Need A Board & What The Series A Expansion Means For Startups with Max Gazor, General Partner @ CRV
Aug 21, 2017 neutral
Opinion
Gross: AI in 2017 mirrors the 2005 big data hype cycle
“AI today is a little bit like that kind of big data trend everyone talked about in 2005 and six, where it's changing the world in a bunch of different ways that I'll detail in a moment. But it's not really living up to, I think, all the hype, and that's probab…”
Daniel Gross Aug 21, 2017 ▶ 8:50 20VC: YC's Daniel Gross on How YC Can Democratise AI & Reduce Incumbency Advantages, Why ML Enabled Software Will Eat The Software That Ate The World & Whether AI Will Produce Independent Companies or Be Technology within Incumbents
Aug 21, 2017 negative
Insight
Gross: Bad engineers over-apply AI to problems lacking ambiguity
“Really great machine learning engineers have the same characteristic that really great all engineers have, which is they're kind of lazy, and they want to find the kind of Occam's razor, the dumbest way to fix the problem, and the bad ones want to kind of over…”
Daniel Gross Aug 21, 2017 ▶ 20:41 20VC: YC's Daniel Gross on How YC Can Democratise AI & Reduce Incumbency Advantages, Why ML Enabled Software Will Eat The Software That Ate The World & Whether AI Will Produce Independent Companies or Be Technology within Incumbents
Aug 25, 2017 bearish
Opinion
Abrams: AI is currently overhyped in startup pitches and VC focus
“I think one of the things I think is overhyped now is AI, and, or really, or maybe talking about AI, because I'm sure a lot of the, you know, I've invested as an angel in over-fifty startups, I'm sure plenty of them are using AI, but when I hear everybody talk…”
Jonathan Abrams Aug 25, 2017 ▶ 23:45 20VC: Nuzzel's Jonathan Abrams on Why The Top VCs Do Not Have A PlayBook For Startup Success, Why Most Boards Are Not Successful & Why He Is Bored Of Hearing "I Fell Into VC"
Aug 30, 2017 negative
Opinion
Cohen: Current AI relies on data without enabling true reasoning
“That doesn't bring us any closer to the ability to reason, to create, or to do anything else that we associate with actual intelligence.”
Alina Cohen Aug 30, 2017 ▶ 13:30 20VC: Why AI Is More Artificial Than Intelligent, Why Engineering-centric Founders Are Able To Pivot Best & Why Startups Are Like Games with Alina Cohen, General Partner @ Initialized Capital
Sep 1, 2017
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tim Harris: AI will drive more business model innovation than tech innovation
“AI is actually going to drive more business model innovation than it is actually technology innovation.”
Tim Harris Sep 1, 2017 ▶ 4:46 20VC: What Is The Big Lie To Silicon Valley, Why Silicon Valley Is No Longer Optimised For Deep Tech Investing & Why AI Will Lead To More Business Model Innovation Than Technology Innovation with Tim Harris, Founder & CEO @ Swift Navigation
Sep 20, 2017 bearish
Opinion
Core AI and machine learning in 2017 is mostly just nifty tricks
“So I really don't think it does, and I would also argue that what people consider a core AI ML today is a bunch of nifty tricks, and so you see lots of nifty demos, but in terms of actual production AI or ML actually out there, a lot of it's a little bit mecha…”
Jeremy Conrad Sep 20, 2017 ▶ 6:07 20VC: Why Core AI Is Largely A Bunch of Nifty Tricks, Why Consumer Electronics Is The Hardest Thing To Do In Venture & Why Silicon Valley Will Dominate The Future of Robotics with Jeremy Conrad, Partner @ Lemnos Labs
Sep 27, 2017
Insight
Oetting: Functional AI Requires Vertical Enterprise Data Structures First
“In order for functional AI to exist in applications, especially in the business world, we need there to be data in software systems, which means we need enterprise software with highly complex and vertically focused data structures before AI can have very much…”
Drew Oetting Sep 27, 2017 ▶ 18:50 20VC: Why VCs Have Forgotten Their Job To Invest In Entrepreneurs not Technologists, How To Know When Growth Creates Value and When It Destroys It & How To Bootstrap Learning Most People Acquire Over Decades with 8VC Founding Partner, Drew Oetting
Sep 29, 2017 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roger Dickey predicted in 2017 that most seed-stage AI investments would fail
“I think artificial intelligence is the wave. It's that's the trend right now that's forming new companies. So you have a lot of people that are investing in teams that probably aren't the best teams to be going after those opportunities. I think there are goin…”
Roger Dickey Sep 29, 2017 ▶ 22:48 20VC: If You Do Not Like VCs, You Have Not Worked With a Good One, How Andreesen Have Added The Same Level of Value As A Co-Founder, Why Market Is The First Thing To Consider When Angel Investing & Why Series A Is A Hiring Decision with Roger Dickey, Foun
Oct 16, 2017 bearish
Opinion
VanDevender: Most products marketed as AI are rebranded actuarial science
“Most of the things that call themselves AI out there are really just a rebranding.”
Aaron VanDevender Oct 16, 2017 ▶ 6:58 20VC: Founders Fund's Chief Scientist on Why AI Is Mostly A Scam, Why The Value of Large Datasets Is Mostly Overplayed & The Societal Effects of 4m Truck Drivers Being Unemployed with Aaron Vandevender
Dec 6, 2017 negative
Insight
Flomenberg: AI startups cannot build durable differentiation solely through algorithms
“A lot of the companies that I meet, they come up to me and they picked a spot that's very close to that algorithm dot on the top, and my concern with that is it's very hard to imagine an algorithm that's durably differentiable.”
Jake Flomenberg Dec 6, 2017 ▶ 6:23 20VC: The Value Chain of Machine Learning, Is There Really An Incumbency Advantage in ML & Will The Rise In Cyber Remain For the Long Term with Jake Flomenberg, Partner @ Accel
Jan 28, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Kopelman: AI reduces the competitive gap between rookies and life science veterans
“And when you sit down and look at life science and healthcare companies and their medicinal chemists and their traditional drug discovery flows and all of those assets, I would argue that AI right now is such a disruptive platform that it really is reducing, n…”
Josh Kopelman Jan 28, 2019 ▶ 38:13 20VC: First Round's Josh Kopelman on Why Price Is Both An Art and A Science, Why Ownership Must Be Built on First Check and The Negative Consequences of Attribution in Venture
Feb 4, 2019
Insight
AI productivity gains require reorganizing work around human leverage
“To my own horn, as I was trying to push years ago, and we still push you know, the real model, I think, is you have to think about AI and people as symbiotic, and you have to think about the real transition in the industrial revolution of knowledge work we're …”
Sam Lessin Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 8:19 20VC: Slow Ventures' Sam Lessin on How VC Forces Certain Companies To Exist and Makes It Difficult To Finance Others, Why Cities Won't Let Scooter Companies Be Profitable and Why Dapps Are A Concern and Where Emphasis Should Be Placed In Crypto
Feb 4, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Full AI adoption in knowledge work will take 15 to 20 years
“It's going to be faster. Maybe it's 20 years, right, for AI, or 15 years for AI to be adopted, but it's also not tomorrow.”
Sam Lessin Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 9:55 20VC: Slow Ventures' Sam Lessin on How VC Forces Certain Companies To Exist and Makes It Difficult To Finance Others, Why Cities Won't Let Scooter Companies Be Profitable and Why Dapps Are A Concern and Where Emphasis Should Be Placed In Crypto
Feb 4, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will make steady, repeatable, predictable jobs much harder to find
“I think the real thing that's going to be challenging is that I think it'll be harder to find steady, repeatable, trusted work.”
Sam Lessin Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 16:00 20VC: Slow Ventures' Sam Lessin on How VC Forces Certain Companies To Exist and Makes It Difficult To Finance Others, Why Cities Won't Let Scooter Companies Be Profitable and Why Dapps Are A Concern and Where Emphasis Should Be Placed In Crypto
Feb 25, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
NeurIPS AI research conference tickets sold out in 11 minutes
“The biggest AI conference for researchers is called the Neuroinformation Processing Symposium. This year, it's sold out in a little over 11 minutes.”
Frank Chen Feb 25, 2019 ▶ 8:34 20VC: a16z Partner Frank Chen on The Future of Car Ownership, Whether The High Employee Attrition Rate in The Valley Is A Feature or A Bug & His Biggest Lessons From Netscape, Loudcloud & Opsware
Feb 25, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Accenture CTO: Enterprise AI adoption is faster than internet or mobile transitions
“If you talk to Paul Doherty, who is the CTO of Accenture, and he's been at Accenture for three decades, he says he's never seen anything grow this fast inside big businesses, right? So if you think about headcount, think about budget, like any metric you can t…”
Frank Chen Feb 25, 2019 ▶ 8:46 20VC: a16z Partner Frank Chen on The Future of Car Ownership, Whether The High Employee Attrition Rate in The Valley Is A Feature or A Bug & His Biggest Lessons From Netscape, Loudcloud & Opsware
Jul 8, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI and China will disrupt the tech sector over the next decade
“The first talks about AI and China specifically, two of the macro forces that will totally disrupt tech in the next decade”
Byron Deeter Jul 8, 2019 ▶ 26:27 20VC: Bessemer's Byron Deeter On Lessons From Investing in 14 $Bn Companies, What The Heck Is Going On In Cloud Today and Why Cloud IPO Floodgates Are About To Burst Open
Sep 6, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Alex Wang: AGI is overhyped, but existing AI already justifies hype
“In particular, I think AGI and the thought that we're going to have AI that is better than humans at everything, I think that's a bit overhyped, or at least it's unclear when that might actually happen, and some people say it's going to be sooner, some people …”
Alex Wang Sep 6, 2019 ▶ 8:24 20VC: Scale Founder Alex Wang on How To Hire Incredible Talent Before You Are A Hot Company, Why Beating Competition Is Not As Clear Cut As Investors Believe & Why AI Is Under-Hyped Today In Terms of Total Impact
Sep 6, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Alex Wang: AI is underhyped and will rival the internet's impact
“So I actually have this belief that AI is either appropriately hyped or even maybe a bit under hyped in terms of its total impact. I think that it really is, if you were to think about technology in terms of these giant waves, I think there's the internet, the…”
Alex Wang Sep 6, 2019 ▶ 7:44 20VC: Scale Founder Alex Wang on How To Hire Incredible Talent Before You Are A Hot Company, Why Beating Competition Is Not As Clear Cut As Investors Believe & Why AI Is Under-Hyped Today In Terms of Total Impact
Sep 6, 2019 negative
Opinion
Alex Wang: Many companies are lying about using AI
“Today, a lot of companies and projects really do, they're using the term AI extremely loosely, and I think that is part of what impacts a lot of the perception of the technology, because so many people are lying about it”
Alex Wang Sep 6, 2019 ▶ 9:22 20VC: Scale Founder Alex Wang on How To Hire Incredible Talent Before You Are A Hot Company, Why Beating Competition Is Not As Clear Cut As Investors Believe & Why AI Is Under-Hyped Today In Terms of Total Impact
Sep 28, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Palmer Luckey: AI Is Not a Natural Outgrowth of VR or AR
“Artificial intelligence is not a natural outcropping of virtual reality or augmented reality.”
Palmer Luckey Sep 28, 2020 ▶ 9:12 20VC: Anduril Founder, Palmer Luckey: "I Am Here To Build a $50Bn Company", How Palmer Evaluates His Relationship To Money Pre & Post Oculus' $2.3Bn Exit & Why The US DOD Needs To Be More Like China in It's Approach
Jan 14, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ghodsi: AI will automate office work, unlocking a multi-trillion-dollar TAM
“Pretty much everything that humans are doing in these offices today, that's very repetitive, and it's not extremely creative, can be automated. So I think the impact of data science and AI is going to be massive, definitely in the trillions of dollars, in term…”
Ali Ghodsi Jan 14, 2021 ▶ 40:01 20VC: Databricks CEO, Ali Ghodsi on The 3 Phases of Startup Growth, How to Evaluate Risk and Downside Scenario Planning & Who, What and When To Hire When Scaling Your Go-To-Market
Jan 10, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mark Carney: AI will create new jobs rather than eliminate human work
“I'm not a AI will mean that none of us are ever going to work again. I'm in the AI will enable new jobs.”
Mark Carney Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 29:20 20VC: Former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney on Why "Only the Niche Will Survive" in Crypto, How Governments and Central Banks Retain Control in a World of Decentralised Finance & The Winners and Losers in Crypto Exchanges and NFTs
Jan 10, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carney: AI and NFTs Will Initially Increase Income Inequality
“So NFTs fall in this camp. Artificial intelligence, machine learning absolutely falls into that campus. Well, ultimately beneficial, but a period of time we're likely to increase inequality.”
Mark Carney Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 25:03 20VC: Former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney on Why "Only the Niche Will Survive" in Crypto, How Governments and Central Banks Retain Control in a World of Decentralised Finance & The Winners and Losers in Crypto Exchanges and NFTs
Nov 14, 2022
Disclosure
Cathie Wood: ARK Invest focuses on five converging innovation platforms
“So we've centered our research and investing around Five innovation platforms genomic sequencing robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology and those are all converging.”
Cathie Wood Nov 14, 2022 ▶ 2:42 Cathie Wood: Elon & Twitter; Why Facebook is a Value Stock Now; ARK's Performance | 20VC #949 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 27, 2023 bullish
Insight
Obrecht: AI adds value through workflow integration, not standalone tools
“There's all these cool tools, but it's really how those tools show up in a workflow where people get their job to be done done. That really adds the most value, and that's why we're investing so heavily into AI as really the co-pilot to help people achieve the…”
Cliff Obrecht Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 35:16 Canva's Cliff Obrecht: How We Turned Our Yearbook Company to $40B Business | 20VC #971 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 8, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: AI will make humans smarter by 2028, like scientific calculators
“Everything around us will be more efficient because of AI, and maybe the opposite of what we think all of us will be smarter because of AI. It's almost like we got, you know, you remember that we had this calculus, you know, computer, you know, when we were ki…”
Ariel Cohen Feb 8, 2023 ▶ 53:48 Ariel Cohen: The Death of Salesforce; How OpenAI is Changing the Travel Industry | 20VC #975 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 8, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Companies that fail to adopt AI will not survive
“I would say maybe AI is eating the world and eating software, and companies that will not join the party will not be around.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 8, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Ariel Cohen: The Death of Salesforce; How OpenAI is Changing the Travel Industry | 20VC #975 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 11, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Steve Pagliuca's Venture Strategy Focuses on Biotech, AI, and Space Tech
“I'll always be affiliated in some way with Bain Capital, helping Bain Capital. I'm going to continue to build the sports group, which I love, and then continue to invest in these areas like biotech and artificial intelligence and space on a venture basis.”
Steve Pagliuca Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 56:50 Celtics Owner Steve Pagliuca: What Went Wrong with the Chelsea FC Acquisition | 20VC #976 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masad: AI leverage will create multi-company 'Elon-type' software engineers
“The best, most creative people will have a lot of the menial work automated for them. They wouldn't have to type a unit test anymore. The AI would do that, for example. And so a lot of their time is spent just doing more things and... We can see more Elon Musk…”
Amjad Masad Mar 11, 2023 ▶ 39:41 Amjad Masad: How I Founded Replit; Zuck's Famous Saying; Will TikTok be banned? | E987 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 24, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Maples: AI reduces startup creation effort below Lean Startup levels
“I think if anything, it takes even less to develop an idea using AI than it did with lean startup techniques.”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 42:31 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 26, 2023 positive
Insight
AI allows product leaders to start with technology rather than problems
“You don't have to start with the problem you're solving. You can start with the technology, and then it can be applied basically everywhere.”
Jack Brody Apr 26, 2023 ▶ 1:01:44 Snap's VP of Product Jack Brody: The Future of AR; Snap Glasses; Evan Spiegel's Product Mind | E1006 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Sarah Guo: AI Is the Largest Value Creation Opportunity in Our Lifetimes
“So AI is the biggest value creation opportunity in our lifetimes.”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 3:08 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Insight
Guo: AI's primary opportunity lies in services, not software
“It may be it may not be very well understood that a significant part of the opportunity for AI is services, not software markets, right?”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 42:04 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 28, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sarah Guo: AI driving biggest UX redesign in two decades
“We're rethinking a lot of user experience in a way that hasn't been true in two decades.”
Sarah Guo Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 8:15 Sarah Guo: On Her New $101M Fund; How AI Impacts Inequality; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1007 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 3, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hankes: Most AI Value Will Accrue to Applications, Not Infrastructure
“I have to believe it's gonna accrue mostly to the application layer. I think if you think about infrastructure companies as platforms, you know, if you think about the software market as the relatives, the value of AWS and Microsoft and Google cloud versus the…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 29:48 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 12, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Delangue: AI Is Far From Becoming Autonomous or Humanity-Destroying
“I believe at the same time, we are very far from a world where AI is autonomous. And has conscience and is taking over the world and destroying humanity. I think this is more fear that is very sci-fi driven that we're very far from.”
Clément Delangue May 12, 2023 ▶ 33:56 Clem Delangue: The Ultimate Guide to Investing in AI; Elon's Threat to Sue OpenAI | E1013 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: AI will bring a new renaissance by amplifying human intelligence
“AI is going to bring a new renaissance for humanity, a new form of enlightenment, if you want, because AI is going to amplify everybody's intelligence. It's like every one of us will have a staff of people who are smarter than us and know most things about mos…”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 negative
Disclosure
Stebbings: AI Adoption Is Already Reducing Employment at 20VC
“We use it at the media company, and it's cutting our employment.”
Harry Stebbings May 15, 2023 ▶ 41:17 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
LeCun: AI progress enabled automated hate speech removal across hundreds of languages
“And then what the progress of AI over the last few years basically allowed systems to be deployed to do things like taking, take down hate speech relatively reliably in hundreds of different languages, which was basically impossible to do before.”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 51:26 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: AI will create as many jobs as it displaces
“No economist believes we're going to run out of jobs because no economist believes that we're going to run out of problems to solve or requirement for human creativity and human communication and stuff like that. So, you know, this is going to create as many j…”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 38:31 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2023 positive
Opinion
LeCun: AI is the solution to social network harms, not the cause
“So, for example, there's a narrative, a very, very common narrative that AI is the culprit for a lot of the bad side effects of social networks in the past. And in fact, it's completely backwards. AI is the solution to those problems.”
Yann LeCun May 15, 2023 ▶ 48:43 Yann LeCun: Meta’s New AI Model LLaMA; Why Elon is Wrong about AI; Open-source AI Models | E1014 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Every Child Will Have Their Own AI in a Few Years
“Assume that every child will have their own AI in a few years, because that will change the nature of schooling.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 57:34 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: AI will deflate US inflation by disrupting healthcare and education bureaucracy
“It's massively deflationary. The biggest drivers of CPI inflation in the US were education and healthcare. And that was almost all administrative and bureaucratic. In the next few years, guess what gets disrupted? Those. But they don't get disrupted this year …”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 49:13 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Next year AI investment will be everywhere, causing chaos
“The reason I signed that letter, because I think there's a six month pause to get all of our shit together before things go completely insane, and next year this is everywhere, and everyone's investing in everything, and it's just absolute chaos.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 16:59 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 44:05 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Mostaque: AI transformation is bigger than the printing press
“I think this is bigger than the printing press. It's bigger than anything.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 1:03:05 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 17, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: AI will redefine doctors' roles by providing continuous personal health data
“I think that you can change the nature of a doctor because a lot of this stuff is kind of very basic. I think, you know, you had Babylon Health and others trying that chatbot. It wasn't ready. Now you've got this. Everyone should have their own AIs looking out…”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 8:27 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 27, 2023
Insight
Cohen: Product leaders must give up deterministic control when building AI
“You don't control the experience. AI is not deterministic. If you ever had an interaction with JGPT, it's, you know, you're, most of the time you're trying to, hard to anticipate how it would respond. And I give the analogy of a chef in a restaurant where befo…”
Tomer Cohen May 27, 2023 ▶ 59:48 Tomer Cohen: Why LinkedIn Stories Failed; How LinkedIn's Feed Was Born; AI Startups | E1019 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 neutral
Insight
Founders Must Add or Remove 'AI' From Pitch Decks Every 3-4 Years
“As an entrepreneur, the only thing you need to know is when to add or remove AI from your deck, and it would change about every three or four years.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 12:29 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 neutral
Insight
Alex Lebrun: AI progress is continuous, not discontinuous step functions
“So from the outside, from, for the general public, it looks like a very big step function with huge advancement every 10 years. I think from the inside, it's much more continuous.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 10:30 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebrun: AI Will Replace Humans for Macro Operational Decision-Making
“I also think that at the higher level, decisions that require a big picture of the data, you know, large, large view will be taken by AI, not by people.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:15:26 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebrun: AI-native startups will displace incumbents across all industries within five years
“I think AI will enable a new generation of players in every industry that will kill the incumbents eventually.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:08:05 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 26, 2023
Insight
Stebbings: Past operating experience decays faster than ever due to AI
“The rate of decay on operating experience has never been greater because of two things. One is actually, I think, AI fundamentally changes so much about Enterprise stacks. I think you could say the same for cloud actually in on-prem in some enterprise cases. A…”
Harry Stebbings Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 1:03:25 Akin Babayigit: How Tripledot Studios Became #1 Fastest-Growing Company in Europe | E1030 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 28, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hyman: AI will be the biggest business operational shift since the iPhone
“There are gonna be companies that are AI beneficiaries, and then there are gonna be companies and full industries that are just decimated by AI. I am of the mindset that AI is going to be the biggest change to how we operate businesses, you know, since, since …”
Jennifer Hyman Jun 28, 2023 ▶ 28:30 Jennifer Hyman: Rent The Runway's Journey to $1.7B IPO; Lessons from Beyoncé & Estée Lauder | E1031 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2023 bullish
Insight
Douwe Kiela: Huge market opportunity exists for an AI evaluation rating agency
“I think there's a giant opportunity in the market actually for. A startup or several startups becoming like the Moody's or the SMP sort of you know the folks who evaluate the quality of AI for specific use cases because nobody really knows.”
Douwe Kiela Jun 30, 2023 ▶ 25:32 Douwe Kiela: Why Data Size Matters More Than Model Size; Why Open Source Isn't Going to Win | E1032 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 21, 2023 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Tech Talent Is Moving Back to San Francisco for AI
“There's an exodus from New York to SF that's happening. And from, I'm not saying Miami, but from other places where, where people went and it's around AI because the zeitgeist is here.”
Jean-Denis Greze Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 24:22 Jean-Denis Greze: CTO of Plaid, the $18B Fintech Startup; How to Hire, Fire & Build Great UX | E1038 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 26, 2023 negative
Opinion
Stebbings: Operating experience decays faster today than ever due to AI
“I also think like the rate of decay on operating experience has never been greater, like specifically on two, which is like, if you haven't operated in the world of AI, it's fundamentally different thinking kind of AI first and with AI as part of your stack th…”
Harry Stebbings Jul 26, 2023 ▶ 48:13 Sri Batchu: Biggest Growth Lesson from Instacart & Opendoor; 70% of Experiments Should Fail | E1040 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nyatta: Indexing and Trend-Chasing in VC and AI Will Fail
“Passive beta capture, you know, this whole idea that you just buy an index of tech, and you sit aside and let it perform, I think that's gone. I think you have to be a stock picker, and so people that are just trying to place a range of bets, I don't think tha…”
Shu Nyatta Jul 31, 2023 ▶ 58:16 Marcelo Claure & Shu Nyatta: LATAM's New $500M Growth Fund; Investing Billions at SoftBank | E1042 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023
Insight
Khosla: Doctors will provide empathy while AI handles medical research analysis
“You can't expect your oncologist to be caring, talking about your cancer, and have read the 5000 most recent articles, ah, on your cancer. They can't keep that knowledge in their head, so that's the kind of partnership that'll be possible.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 13:15 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will enable custom treatments for 6,000 single-mutation genetic diseases
“I'm pretty excited that for a large number of genetic defects, and there's probably 6000 or so diseases that are single mutation genetic diseases, we will be able to design with AI's help custom solutions because we've essentially solved the protein folding pr…”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 14:25 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will take 80% of doctor load, enabling 5x more visits
“I think we can have an excess even when we increase the number of interactions by five acts because AI can take 80% of that increased load.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 12:25 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Western democracies will lag China in AI adoption
“I worry that the Western political system Ah, and capitalism is by permission of democracy. Ah, so the Western political system will pay more importance to the short term, which is things like job displacement, while in China you might get Tiananmen Square typ…”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 10:35 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Almost all AI training data was designed for humans, not machines
“Almost everything AI is training on is designed for humans, not for machines.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 16:15 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will cause large job displacement over next 25 years
“If I'm right, the level of job displacement over 20, 25 years will be large”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 4:39 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will enhance top musicians like Taylor Swift, not replace them
“I do think, you know, the Taylor Swift's of the world will still be there. I'm not suggesting they will disappear. Artists and phenomena will be there. Their creativity will be dramatically enhanced by AI.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 34:15 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will spur massive GDP growth alongside rising income inequality
“AI will cause, and this was Six years seven years ago. AI will cause great abundance, great GDP growth, great productivity growth, everything economists measure, and increasing income disparity.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 7, 2023 ▶ 7:14 Vinod Khosla: How AI Impacts Healthcare, Energy, Geo-Politics, Media and Climate Change | E1045 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Lessin: The most obvious AI bets are Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft
“It's like, you want to bet on AI? Bet on Facebook. Bet on Amazon. Bet on Microsoft. It's so obvious.”
Sam Lessin Aug 11, 2023 ▶ 0:05 DEBATE: State of Seed Investing w/ Jason Lemkin, Sam Lessin, Frank Rotman & Harry Stebbings | E1047 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings passed off Tim Urban's AI writing as his own
“I just mentioned that I actually tried to Passed some of it off as my own intellect on AI about seven years ago, and it worked”
Harry Stebbings Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 0:28 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will solve climate and lifespan challenges by the 2050s
“I think that AI, if things go well, I think we're going to have so many answers. In the near future. I think we're going to solve so many problems that seem really hard to us right now. I think 20, you know, these problems won't be a match for 20 fifties human…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:06:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI danger stems from super-potency, not malicious intent
“AI is probably gonna be dangerous not because It's going to be evil Terminator robots, but because it's going to be super powerful with unintended consequences”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 58:46 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will accelerate the fracture of shared societal reality
“We already see, of course, the fracture of the shared reality because of tribal narrow cast media, you know, each telling their own story and social media, creating bubbles of reality. And I think AI can just accelerate these trends.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 0:10 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: AI verification challenges will drive value to existing media brands
“Verification as a layer becomes one of the most valuable, but I think value accrues to existing media brands because verification becomes more and more challenging. And so the authentic followership that we have, Becomes more valuable because it becomes more a…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:02:19 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could automate his writing job within two years
“12 months ago I had any inkling that AI might steal my job within, like two years. Didn't, I would have guessed, like, 20. So that's, I mean, and that's one of a hundred different things that I've been shocked about with AI in the last few months like everyone…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:11:09 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 16, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balfour: AI will automate routine growth tactics and quantitative analyses
“I think the surface level tactics and systems will definitely change a lot. So I would say like a lot of these analyses that, you know, seven years ago, eight years ago were sort of leading edge things like Finding what your habit and aha moment are, for examp…”
Brian Balfour Aug 16, 2023 ▶ 47:20 Brian Balfour: Startup Growth Secrets from HubSpot; Distribution Stratagies; Impact of AI | E1049 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 16, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balfour: AI won't master qualitative product nuances or user psychology
“The things that don't change, right, that I don't think AI is going to really help you with that much is understanding, like, all of these qualitative underpinnings of your product, of your use case, of your problem, of your natural frequency, and then the psy…”
Brian Balfour Aug 16, 2023 ▶ 48:50 Brian Balfour: Startup Growth Secrets from HubSpot; Distribution Stratagies; Impact of AI | E1049 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: Physical jobs will become expensive bottlenecks constraining AI GDP growth
“The tasks that are physical are getting more and more expensive and they're going to become the new bottlenecks, right? So your carpenter, the people like who built your house all of those kinds of jobs are going to be more and more expensive. And then they're…”
Richard Socher Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 50:07 Richard Socher: The 3 Biggest Barriers to Building AGI; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1050 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2023 positive
Insight
Howie Liu: AI Will Enable Both Adobe and Canva to Grow
“I don't think it has to be purely a, you know, winner takes all, you know, Adobe wins and Canva loses type of equation, right? I think AI could actually enable both Adobe and Canva to grow and to actually create disruptive experiences”
Howie Liu Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 22:20 Howie Liu: Decoding Airtable's $11B Valuation; The Impending AI Revolution in Enterprise | E1053 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howie Liu: AI Productivity Gains Could Drive Net Employment Growth
“There's a potential world that was certainly not guaranteed where we find ways to use more human potential and employ more people because each person is made more productive by AI.”
Howie Liu Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 0:08 Howie Liu: Decoding Airtable's $11B Valuation; The Impending AI Revolution in Enterprise | E1053 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howie Liu: Enterprise AI Adoption Will Be Iterative, Not a Massive Wave
“Personally, I don't know if there's anything particularly special about next year. I mean, I think every month, That goes by enterprises are getting more savvy about AI. You know, I'm seeing it in my conversations with enterprises, you know, today versus three…”
Howie Liu Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 27:52 Howie Liu: Decoding Airtable's $11B Valuation; The Impending AI Revolution in Enterprise | E1053 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cris Valenzuela predicts AI will cease to exist as a distinct category
“We're going to stop referring to it as AI. We're just going to think about it as tools. I think I'm really looking forward to the moment in time where there's no discussion around AI in the same way that today we don't discuss the Internet as a thing. It's jus…”
Cris Valenzuela Aug 28, 2023 ▶ 51:54 Cris Valenzuela: AI Creators vs Hollywood Writers; How We Grew Runway into a $1.5B Company | E1054 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Velez: Emerging markets' fintech lead will accelerate over next 5-10 years
“And this is just the beginning. You'll see this trend just accelerating, I think, over the next five, 10 years when you start thinking about open banking, when you start thinking about the uses of crypto, when you start thinking about how, what AI could do in …”
David Vélez Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 37:06 David Velez: How AI Changes The Future of Finance | E1059 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Velez: AI will act as a banker in every pocket, democratizing finance
“We think that AI is now the second platform shift that might actually be able to take it to its final conclusion. And so if the smartphone was the bank in every pocket, AI is the bank and the banker in every pocket. And that really is the catalyst to Enable hu…”
David Vélez Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 44:02 David Velez: How AI Changes The Future of Finance | E1059 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grimshaw: AI will yield new software architectures and business models
“And I think if AI is to be the force that it can be, I think you will get a new architecture and new business model emerging from it versus what we only see right now, which is kind of a sustaining architecture, which is just that of a co-pilot.”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:05:22 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2023 negative
Opinion
Grimshaw: Unlike AI, mobile was merely a UX shift with identical architecture
“And in that way, I think it will be very different to mobile, which was mostly another UX but the same architecture, the same business models.”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:08:06 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grimshaw: AI software will sell finished work outcomes rather than seat licenses
“The way to encapsulate would be this idea of selling the work, not the software. And that we'll move from a paradigm where you might think of it as moving from what we see right now as a copilot and moving to what I think about as a control center, where we'll…”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:05:42 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2023 bullish
Insight
Grimshaw: AI Enables an Architectural Shift Equivalent to SaaS 1.0
“And I think it's this idea of this more all encompassing change in architecture and business model that AI enables in the way that the internet really enabled a total, you know, enable SAS one point or enabled a totally different architecture of product model …”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:12:07 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kleinerman: AI will bring incremental productivity boosts, not immediate mass layoffs
“I don't think that it's a mass firing happening next week. It's more incremental productivity boosts happening over the next six, 1224 months.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kleinerman: Every Snowflake customer is actively trying to adopt AI
“Every customer that I talk to these days, they're looking into doing something. They're all trying to figure out how to get started and how to get there”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 7:37 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kleinerman: AI job displacement backlash will become a major issue by 2025
“So at this point, I would say the incentive should be working maybe, I don't know, A year, a couple of years from now, what you're saying becomes true.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 11:43 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 positive
Opinion
Kleinerman: AI is on the same scale as mobile and the internet
“I think it's comparable. I think it's on the scale of the internet. I think it's on the scale of mobile.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 6:21 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 negative
Opinion
Kleinerman: AI founders do not need to be in Silicon Valley
“Absolutely not. Well, there's amazing talent throughout the world. And even though the Valley has something special from the community and the ability to bounce ideas of one another, It's very clear right now. There's a lot of innovation happening elsewhere.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 42:54 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023
Insight
Kleinerman: There is no AI strategy without a data strategy
“I think it completely correlates with data maturity. You may have heard some of us at Snowflake talk about There's no AI or gen AI strategy without a data strategy. It's not just a line. It's a truth that we strongly believe in.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 9:44 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2023 positive
Opinion
Benioff: San Francisco is the world's top AI city
“We're in San Francisco, which is the number one AI city in the world. That's where all the talent is and all the great startups and companies”
Marc Benioff Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 1:29 Marc Benioff: The Future of San Francisco and What He Would Do if in Charge | E1064 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Benioff: Salesforce built the first AI operating without seeing customer data
“We were really the first AI that was built where it was able to operate on the data without us seeing the data.”
Marc Benioff Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 1:59 Marc Benioff: The Future of San Francisco and What He Would Do if in Charge | E1064 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: AI will completely disrupt traditional venture capital workflows
“I know, but on, on the investment side, right, I mean, beyond work, we worked with Moonfire, and they're really interesting because they actually tried to build an AI-first venture fund. Yeah. They went out with a real framework, invested heavily in, you know,…”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:11:16 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 positive
Insight
Lanng: Trust in AI co-workers must be intentionally designed through UX cues
“I mean that for us to really truly trust AI in the work environment, we need to have cues, and we need to feel we can trust them as co-workers. I think that is absolutely a user experience that needs to be designed.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:00:19 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Society is overestimating how quickly large corporations will adopt AI
“I think we are overestimating the speed of adoption with which we think large corporates will adopt AI.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:03:18 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: 99% of venture capital invested in AI will be wasted
“99% of the money going in is going to be lit on fire, and two, we are underestimating the impact of AI.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 59:17 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Lanng: Beyond Work banned using AI as a marketing term
“In Beyond Work, we banned talking or using AI as a, as something we talk about.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 59:35 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lanng: Most application-based software brands will struggle due to AI
“I think actually that one of the biggest impacts of AI and LLM is that most application-based brands are going to be really struggling because the brand is the UX.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:07:06 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 neutral
Insight
Lanng: AI is just underlying infrastructure, not the value proposition
“AI is Essentially as interesting as saying database or, you know, we have an HTML rendering layer or whatever. It's a set of technologies, and I think what is really, really important, and I think most people right now that are rushing into, as you said, AI is…”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 59:42 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 positive
Insight
Lanng: The future of software is removing applications and interacting directly with AI
“The better solution is to remove the application that's shit and just talk straight with AI.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:05:49 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 27, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Beyond Work programs AI to ask questions to build human trust
“In fact, some of the things we've been playing around with is, we call it, if in doubt, ask. We sometimes ask when we already know the answer.”
Christian Lanng Sep 27, 2023 ▶ 1:00:57 Christian Lanng: "How Being a Founder Almost Killed Me" | E1065 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Niparko: AI will merge product, design, and engineering roles
“My sense is that we'll see a rise of a product architect role, which combines the disciplines of product and design and engineering into one and uses AI as leverage and an accelerant to really deliver new products to market.”
Kevin Niparko Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 48:44 Kevin Niparko: Big Mistakes Founders Make When Hiring Product Teams | E1066 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2023
Insight
Rauch: AI software requires more UI than traditional deterministic software
“Like, that's what I mean by it's actually giving you more UI, not less, because it's uncertain about what it is that you actually want. So it needs to give you more choices.”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 45:38 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Rauch: AI wave will yield major IPOs like Web 2.0
“My prediction is just like what happened with web two by now, where you have, because of the platform shift toward mobile and social, you have countless successful IPOs from that generation. You have the Ubers, you have the Airbnbs, you have the Facebooks. We'…”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 1:06:30 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI will lead to the creation of more user interfaces
“Our point of view is that now people will be creating a lot more of those UIs.”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 37:45 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Farquhar: AI will significantly alter top tech company rankings within five years
“I do think that there's going to be a big change in how technology works and change the landscape, honestly. I think you'll walk in five years time, and the list of top companies may look very different to today, so I don't think you can avoid having an AI str…”
Scott Farquhar Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 22:24 Scott Farquhar: Founding Atlassian; How We Scaled to a $50B Valuation; The 4 Jobs of a CEO | E1070 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Farquhar: AI will disrupt high-cost per-seat SaaS pricing models
“I will put pressure on per seat pricing. I agree with that premise in general. For example, if you provide help desk software and it's, you know, licensed on a per agent basis. And in many cases, these, our competitors have these things that are a hundred doll…”
Scott Farquhar Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 37:57 Scott Farquhar: Founding Atlassian; How We Scaled to a $50B Valuation; The 4 Jobs of a CEO | E1070 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Farquhar: Atlassian's $10/Seat Model Is Less Vulnerable to AI Than $150+ Competitors
“If you're, you know, a 152 hundred dollars a seat, like you've got a much bigger pricing model change to worry about than if, like the last thing does, we charge 10 dollars a seat, and then how much is going to be augmented by AI versus replaced by AI.”
Scott Farquhar Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 38:54 Scott Farquhar: Founding Atlassian; How We Scaled to a $50B Valuation; The 4 Jobs of a CEO | E1070 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 16, 2023
Insight
Prince: AI is fundamentally just statistics under the hood
“Today we'd call it AI, but it's all just statistics under, under the hood.”
Matthew Prince Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 3:04 Matthew Prince: The Two Biggest Mistakes Every Founder Makes | E1072 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 20, 2023 positive
Insight
Proprietary Data Is the Single Most Important Differentiator in AI
“In AI, access to proprietary data will be the single most important differentiator.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 23:35 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Oct 27, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Sim: 55% of Boldstart portfolio companies feature AI offerings today
“Currently in the portfolio of our companies that are running from funds four through six, 55% of our portfolio companies have an AI related offering today.”
Ed Sim Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 26:50 Ed Sim: Why Seed Has Never Been More Competitive & Why Pricing Has Never Been Higher | E1076 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sim: 80% of Boldstart portfolio will offer AI within 12 months
“Within the next 12 months, okay, 80% of the portfolio will have an AI offering.”
Ed Sim Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 27:01 Ed Sim: Why Seed Has Never Been More Competitive & Why Pricing Has Never Been Higher | E1076 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Stebbings: 85% of 20VC deal flow is AI-first
“I now see 85% of our deal flow now purely as AI first deal flow.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 26:28 Ed Sim: Why Seed Has Never Been More Competitive & Why Pricing Has Never Been Higher | E1076 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Ed Sim: AI is transformational but making money will be extremely hard
“I think this whole AI thing, frankly, I think AI is the most transformational thing that we've, that we're ever going to see in a long time. However, I still think it's really fucking hard to make money there.”
Ed Sim Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 25:31 Ed Sim: Why Seed Has Never Been More Competitive & Why Pricing Has Never Been Higher | E1076 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 8, 2023 negative
Opinion
Cohen: Social media, not AI, is what disrupted trusted news brands
“I think brands, trusted brands are really important, but AI isn't the thing that's suddenly going to challenge trusted brands. Social media's already done that for, what, 1015 years now. You know, the breakdown in shared truths, the breakdown our understanding…”
Danny Cohen Nov 8, 2023 ▶ 15:29 Danny Cohen: From Leading the BBC to Leading Venture Capitalist |E1079 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 8, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: AI will 10x the supply of media content within three years
“We have a, we use AI to create content today. And what it will do in two to three years, I think will 10 X the supply of content.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 8, 2023 ▶ 8:34 Danny Cohen: From Leading the BBC to Leading Venture Capitalist |E1079 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: AI will create significantly more jobs than it destroys
“Like AI is going to create way more jobs than it destroys.”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 1:02:43 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 positive
Insight
Des Traynor's two-part test for evaluating genuine value in AI products
“What I look to sort of interrogate the value is just like, Is there something happening now that wasn't possible before? Or is there somebody who doesn't have to do something now that they had to do before? If the answer to either of those is yes, then I'm sor…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:02:51 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI will kill an above-average number of software incumbents
“I also think an above average number of existing incumbents are going to die too, because their world is going to get torn apart by AI.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 27:28 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 negative
Opinion
Des Traynor: Scale-ups add superficial AI features primarily for marketing hype
“There's a lot of that type of bullshit in AI, which is people reaching for the easiest to use features and trying to, like, reverse engineer a demand for them inside their product. So, like, summarize this shopping cart in natural language, English. You're lik…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:02:22 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Des Traynor: AI will disrupt long-standing SaaS product strategies
“Like even like all this AI shit's gonna like upend a load of like product strategy advice that has been holding solid for 10 years, right?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:11:51 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Incumbents will benefit more from AI than startups
“If you put a gun to my head, I'd say incumbents will probably do better out of AI than like startups thinking they can displace incumbents.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 55:44 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 neutral
Disclosure
Des Traynor: 100% of startup deal flow mentions AI
“If the question was like, how much of it mentions AI in like sub bullet tree or whatever, then yeah, a hundred percent.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:01:23 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Quinn: Lightspeed has deployed over $1B across 54 AI startups
“We've invested at lightspeed in 54 companies in AI. We've spent, we've invested over a billion dollars in AI, but big, but that was not all this year. That is not all generative AI, right? That's been over the few years, over the last few years”
Nicole Quinn Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 21:22 Roundtable #6 with Rebecca Kaden, Nicole Quinn, Eurie Kim, Harry Stebbings | E1083 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Quinn: AI tools will save users two to three hours per day
“I would say AI is akin to winning the lottery. And what I mean by that is it is the lottery of time. So in your, like, say, 10 hour working day, you spend maybe an hour writing a newsletter. Well, that could get compressed down to 10 minutes, right? You have B…”
Nicole Quinn Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 24:23 Roundtable #6 with Rebecca Kaden, Nicole Quinn, Eurie Kim, Harry Stebbings | E1083 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2023 neutral
Insight
Kaden: AI's biggest impact comes from existing companies integrating the technology
“Impact in the portfolio has actually come from existing portfolio companies application of it, which has for many of them changed trajectory or meaningfully evolved their business.”
Rebecca Kaden Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 22:11 Roundtable #6 with Rebecca Kaden, Nicole Quinn, Eurie Kim, Harry Stebbings | E1083 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2023 bullish
Insight
Kim: AI drastically lowers costs for previously impractical consumer applications
“AI is something that can actually change consumers' lives. Things that could not be delivered because it took too many human hours, that was too expensive, are now conceivably being delivered for fractions of the cost.”
Eurie Kim Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 23:35 Roundtable #6 with Rebecca Kaden, Nicole Quinn, Eurie Kim, Harry Stebbings | E1083 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seibert: AI will boost productivity rather than replace human jobs
“Ah, so I would say actually, on a good light, AI won't replace many jobs, I think, actually. It'll drive productivity, not replacement, and it'll be like other technologies that have come out, like phones didn't replace people, now you just use them and you ca…”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 56:38 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 22, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Seibert: Google must go all-in on AI to prevent existential disruption
“They need to go all in on it. I don't think they have a choice. I agree with you. I think it's existential for them because if AI replaces search, their golden goose has been killed. And so it is way more effective to kill your own golden goose than let and wa…”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 34:42 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 22, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seibert: AI will not alter established SaaS pricing models in specific industries
“I don't think it'll change how people price in specific industries. Like if your market does per seat pricing, that'll probably stay. If your business and product does consumption pricing, that'll probably stay.”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 36:44 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 22, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Seibert: Useful AI arrived much faster than previously expected
“12 months ago, I thought useful AI would be years away. No longer think that.”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 1:00:08 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seibert: AI adoption will happen radically faster than previous tech waves
“And so I actually think the adoption curve here will be radically faster and industries will be disrupted probably way quicker than prior tech waves just because of the barriers are so low.”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 33:59 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grimshaw: AI software will sell work and outcome SLAs rather than seats
“I think the way to encapsulate would be this idea of selling the work, not the software, and that we'll move from a paradigm where you might think of it as moving from what we see right now as a copilot and moving to what I think about as a control center, whe…”
Miles Grimshaw Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 13:55 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
LeCun: AI will create as many jobs as it eliminates
“This is going to create as many jobs as it makes disappear.”
Yann LeCun Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 30:34 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seibert: AI will be commoditized quickly without disrupting existing software pricing
“So this may be just me, but I very much see AI as a tool, not a product. And so it's a technology. It's like your database. It's like Memcash back in the day, and so because of that, I don't think it'll change how people price in specific industries. Like, if …”
Jeff Seibert Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 17:36 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cabane: People will increasingly ignore real human messages as AI writing surpasses humans
“So it's very likely that we'll start ignoring messages from real humans at a much higher rate, because the quality of AI will be better than the quality of humans.”
Guillaume Cabane Nov 29, 2023 ▶ 41:58 Guillaume Cabane: Why Your First Growth Hire Should Be a Former Founder | E1088 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 6, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Software UIs Will Shift From Tables to Conversational Interfaces
“So a hundred percent, I think the software is going to look a lot less like tables, graphs, and dropdowns, and a lot more like a conversation Where I release a UI that is extremely dynamic, that abstracts the data that you actually would need to see, and just …”
Geoff Charles Dec 6, 2023 ▶ 48:32 Geoff Charles: How To Hire Product Teams & Increase Product Velocity | E1091 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 8, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Biswas: AI disruption will lead to more fulfilling white-collar jobs
“What we're seeing now is a similar disruption, maybe on the white collar side. And I actually think we're going to come out of this with better jobs that are more fulfilling, which are again, more creative and more unique to us and where we get leverage from t…”
Sanjit Biswas Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 59:54 Sanjit Biswas: Samsara's $18BN Market Cap & $1BN in ARR in 8 Years | E1092 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 13, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldberg: AI will eventually replace transactional and inbound sales roles
“I think there'll be parts of the market that it does replace, like maybe more some of the transactional business maybe some of kind of inbound capabilities, but I think we're a bit away from that.”
Steve Goldberg Dec 13, 2023 ▶ 47:02 Steve Goldberg: Core Questions All CFOs Ask Today When Buying | E1094 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023 positive
Insight
Cohen: AI delivers the most value when simplifying complex software products
“The more complex your product, the more impact AI could have in terms of simplifying it for your user base.”
Tomer Cohen Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 51:56 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023
Insight
Cohen: AI-first product design requires relinquishing control over user experience
“When you think in an AI first principle kind of way, You're really unleashing the idea of control. What happens basically in AI is you don't control the experience anymore.”
Tomer Cohen Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 0:22 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Belsky: Per-seat pricing for enterprise SaaS is obsolete in the AI era
“The idea of selling seats function by function, like how many people in procurement, how many people in financial planning? I mean, it's such an old antiquated way of Building a business to some degree in the age of AI.”
Scott Belsky Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 40:10 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023 neutral
Insight
Söderström: AI is the product; UI merely captures signal for it
“Now AI is the product and the UI is there to help the AI to capture better signal.”
Gustav Söderström Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 4:08 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: AI-suggested variations will yield better UI design with fewer cycles
“We're in a world where AI will suggest alternative scenarios. You can try variations and just look and, you know, with the mistake of the eye, find a better solution. That, or at least something you want to A-B test. And so I think that the product development…”
Scott Belsky Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 3:22 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 20, 2023 positive
Insight
Belsky: AI platform shift uniquely favors incumbent tech giants over startups
“I do think we executed well, but I also think that there's some nuances of this platform shift in particular that do favor those companies that know their customer well and already reach them.”
Scott Belsky Dec 20, 2023 ▶ 37:29 Roundtable #7: Spotify, Adobe and Linkedin on How AI Changes The Future of Product & Design | E1097 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Skeptical that AI will drive top-line revenue growth for SaaS
“I think AI can create some efficiency, but growth? Growth? Let's see if it can create growth. I'm skeptical it can create growth, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 17:06 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: AI will make assessing the vibe of authenticity increasingly crucial
“Especially with, you know, AI, it's going to be harder and harder to tell if something's authentic or not, if someone's a genuine human or not, so I think authenticity and kind of an assessment of the vibe of authenticity is going to be increasingly important”
Nick Tomaino Jan 8, 2024 ▶ 30:52 Crypto Roundtable with Nick Tomaino & Kyle Samani: US Elections, NFTs, and Trump | E1100 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 2, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Wu: AI tools will soon simulate instant persona-based user testing
“And I think there's probably going to be an AI tool in the near future that gives you instantaneous user feedback and testing. Like you create a mock-up or a prototype and you Hand it to the AI, and you say, hey, AI, give me feedback on this new experience as …”
Will Wu Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 44:48 Will Wu: Top Five Product Lessons from Creating Snapchat "Discover" and "Chat" | E1111 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rohan: AI will not replace human relationships in seed investing
“But the core of what we do is this very human, very personal thing. And I don't think that's going to be replaced by AI in terms of like the core thing.”
Terrence Rohan Feb 5, 2024 ▶ 1:37:02 David Tisch & Terrence Rohan: Biggest Misconceptions & Hardest Truths About Seed Investing | E1112 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rohan: Initial seed funding rounds will permanently remain essential for startups
“I think the seed round is like, if there's one round, and I think this is like an interesting topic, like how funding dynamics and whether you need BC, but I think if there's one round that is Will be essential for forever. It is that first round, right? And i…”
Terrence Rohan Feb 5, 2024 ▶ 1:07:45 David Tisch & Terrence Rohan: Biggest Misconceptions & Hardest Truths About Seed Investing | E1112 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rohan: AI will make companies significantly more capital efficient long-term
“And if AI will do anything, I think it'll just make companies that much more capital efficient in the longterm.”
Terrence Rohan Feb 5, 2024 ▶ 1:08:58 David Tisch & Terrence Rohan: Biggest Misconceptions & Hardest Truths About Seed Investing | E1112 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Williamson: AI will merge PM, design, and engineering into a single role
“I can imagine this triple roll down the line where they're doing PM, design, and engineering with the help of AI.”
Scott Williamson Feb 21, 2024 ▶ 57:17 Scott Williamson: Hiring the Best Product People in Five Steps, Why the Best PMs are Writers | E1118 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Nicolai Tangen says winners in AI and semiconductor chips are impossible to predict
“Yeah, I think, so I'm not really thinking about technology, because that's a bit too complicated for me. I mean, that's, because that changes so fast, and God knows who's going to be the winner in, in AI, or chips, or these kind of things.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 9:30 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024
Insight
Tangen: Extreme AI development costs entrench big tech dominance
“So now, for instance, in AI, it takes it's so expensive to develop the new models that if you're not already a big company, you have difficulty doing it.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 22:30 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 8, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cassidy: AI will move the SDR function back under marketing
“Ultimately, what AI does is probably get put the SDR function back under marketing.”
Brendon Cassidy Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 7:27 Brendon Cassidy: Why You Should Never Hire Someone You Do Not Know in Your First Five Hires | E1124 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 11, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: AI and Automation Will Enable US Manufacturing to Return Onshore
“I think there's some legit arguments that AI with manufacturing can bring some things back on shore in the U S and the U S more than any other nation.”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 31:08 Joe Lonsdale: The Future of TikTok; Is it a Danger to US National Security? | E1125 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 15, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ferrari predicts AI will eliminate far more jobs than it creates
“But I will say, maybe, no, I don't, it doesn't qualify as advice, but the opinion I hear most often that I think is really poorly informed and poorly thought out is that Artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it will eliminate. I believe, and again…”
Luca Ferrari Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 58:47 Luca Ferrari: Scaling to 500M Downloads, $360M in Reported 2023 Sales and a $2.55BN Valuation |E1127 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemieux: AI Will Increase Software Jobs by Expanding Developers Into Healthcare
“And you know, what's going to happen is we have a lot more software to write. And that's what people don't realize. Like, is there jobs in software development? Holy shit. Like healthcare agriculture et cetera, like educate, like all these places that need tec…”
Jean-Michel Lemieux Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 50:54 Jean-Michel Lemieux: Three Product Decisions Every Team Needs to Make | E1129 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 20, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemieux: AI tools currently write 80% of my code
“And the way it helps me personally is, you know, it writes 80% of my code.”
Jean-Michel Lemieux Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 50:42 Jean-Michel Lemieux: Three Product Decisions Every Team Needs to Make | E1129 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bryan Johnson: Autonomous computational networks will inevitably govern human intelligence and decisions
“These systems are going to run faster than our minds, the more efficient than our minds, they'll have more data than our minds, so the future is us in this autonomous network Of computational goal alignment among all intelligence. Now, that sounds unfathomable…”
Bryan Johnson Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 46:31 Bryan Johnson: Why Humans are No Longer Qualified to Manage Our Own Affairs | E1130 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 27, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Dixon: a16z Has Never Pivoted Strategy, Investing in AI Since 2013
“We are, we don't pivot at A-Six-Z, like we've never pivoted. We have all, you know, we've done AI for 10, since I've been at the firm, since 2013, we've done blockchain, crypto consistently, we've done bio, we've done SaaS, we've done video games.”
Chris Dixon Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 20:00 Chris Dixon: Who Will Win the Next Generation of Venture? | E1132 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 27, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Dixon: Big Tech Controls 95%+ of Traffic, AI Will Accelerate Consolidation
“The big five companies have 95% plus of the traffic and the money, and AI, as exciting as it is, will very likely accelerate that consolidation.”
Chris Dixon Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 0:14 Chris Dixon: Who Will Win the Next Generation of Venture? | E1132 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Crypto's success is inevitable; only timing remains uncertain
“I think the interesting question to me is not whether something like crypto blockchain will work. I don't think it's a question. I think it's a question of, the timing is a question as it is, as it was with AI and other things”
Chris Dixon Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 26:42 Chris Dixon: Who Will Win the Next Generation of Venture? | E1132 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 8, 2024
Opinion
Bastian Lehmann: Failing to develop AI rapidly poses humanity's greatest existential risk
“The risk is not that there will be an evil AI that will kill us. I think the risk will be that by not becoming more intelligent and using these intelligent tools will become extinct.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 1:03:40 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lehmann: Apple is caught in the inventor's dilemma over AI
“I believe that AI happened too fast and Apple is caught in sort of the inventor's dilemma here.”
Bastian Lehmann Apr 8, 2024 ▶ 52:56 Bastian Lehmann: How the Uber Deal Went Down and How a $2.65BN Deal Turned into $5BN | E1137 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Kevin Ryan: AI talent will become more geographically distributed
“Many of the smartest people are doing AI, and it will distribute more.”
Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 1:01:24 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan: AI disruption could displace Google as top search engine within 5 years
“We don't know five years from now if Google's gonna be the number one search engine. There's a chance that's a disruptive technology that allows it to change.”
Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 21:06 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 12, 2024 negative
Insight
Sam Blond: AI Cannot Devise Creative or Unconventional Sales Campaigns
“I think what, at least today, AI does not accomplish that humans still do is this aspect of being creative. You know, the AI isn't going to tell you here is your contrarian or unconventional outbound sales campaign that is different from what everybody else is…”
Sam Blond Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 55:56 Sam Blond: Why Startups are Doing Outbound Wrong and How to Fix It | E1139 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 15, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI will meaningfully increase the rate of scientific progress
“And if AI can help people meaningfully increase the rate of scientific progress, which I believe it will, I think that will be a triumph.”
Sam Altman Apr 15, 2024 ▶ 28:05 Sam Altman & Brad Lightcap: Which Companies Will Be Steamrolled by OpenAI? | E1140 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 22, 2024 positive
Insight
Dines: Document Processing Is the Primary Viable Enterprise AI Application Today
“But I think there will be certain use, especially in understanding documents, reading documents, long documents, summarization of documents. This is gonna be really where we can apply AI as of today.”
Daniel Dines Apr 22, 2024 ▶ 1:33:46 Daniel Dines: From a Dollar a Day to Romania's Richest Man| Happiness, Wealth, Risk and more | E1143 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: AI Will Cause The Complete Destruction Of Outbound Sales
“I think AI will actually destroy outbound in many cases, because it will just create infinite supply of messages, or infinite supply of whatever channel that is, and so I think you actually see the complete removal of it.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 24, 2024 ▶ 44:50 Rujul Zaparde: Why Hiring Inexperienced People is Better | E1144 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 26, 2024 bearish
Insight
Adam Gross: Most AI value will accrue to incumbents, not startups
“I'm of two minds on this. I think a lot of AI value will accrue to existing large distribution players. AI is not naturally disruptive in the way that the shift from on-prem to cloud was, right, which obviously I had a front row seat to.”
Adam Gross Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 36:00 Adam Gross: Why Startups Doing Paid Under $100M ARR are not PLG | E1145 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024
Insight
Mensch: AI abstraction speed is unmatched in human history
“I think what's happening right now is that probably the speed in, in our elevation toward higher abstraction level is probably occurring at an unmatched rate in history. Though that means that the society adaptation is going to be more challenging.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 50:04 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024
Opinion
Mensch: Fears of AI job replacement are grossly over-exaggerated
“I think they are. I mean, it depends on who you're speaking to. I think job are going to be displaced for sure. Some will be replaced. Some will open up.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 49:36 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mensch: AI spending in customer support has moved to core enterprise budgets
“It's moving into core budget for customer support, for instance, where like areas where the application of AI is pretty obvious. It's definitely moving into core budgets.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 31:47 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 3, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rabois: Ramp's 2018 pitch notes match its current board discussions
“And if you read the notes today, it is literally just like the board meeting we just finished with the exception of AI. We didn't really talk about it at AI, but everything else in the board meeting today is like, Right on target from this first note in maybe …”
Keith Rabois May 3, 2024 ▶ 1:55 Keith Rabois & Eric Glyman: The Tools, Tips, Secrets and Process That Drive Efficiency | E1148 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 6, 2024 positive
Insight
Tavel: AI enables startups to sell completed work rather than software seats
“What AI enables is actually a very different unit of work that you sell, which is doing the work. And so you're almost a software company that looks like a services business that is able to sell like the full work product that the outcome, as opposed to sellin…”
Sarah Tavel May 6, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Sarah Tavel: Will Foundation Models Be Commoditised? | E1149 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 13, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Blomfield: 70% of current Y Combinator startups are AI-focused
“70%.”
Tom Blomfield May 13, 2024 ▶ 43:35 Tom Blomfield: Do the Best All Raise Pre-Demo Day & YC's Fundraising Advice to Startups | E 1152 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2024 positive
Insight
Dan Siroker: Technology does not automatically progress without ambitious founders
“Technology doesn't get better by itself, by the way. We could look at, you know, here's a good analogy, we could look at AI today the same way that Before SpaceX, people looked at the Space Shuttle. Like, hey, we had the Space Shuttle, then we retired it, and …”
Dan Siroker May 15, 2024 ▶ 1:14:31 Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2024
Insight
Siroker: AI investors should prioritize problem-obsessed over tech-obsessed founders
“I think the most important thing to do if you're an investor today is find founders who are obsessed with problems, not solutions.”
Dan Siroker May 15, 2024 ▶ 1:00:22 Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 20, 2024 neutral
Insight
Arora: Internal AI margin gains do not create market competitiveness
“The fact that I have better operating margins because I was able to deploy AI internally is not going to make me a better competitor to somebody else unless, you know, maybe I'm using cash generated from it as a better competitor.”
Nikesh Arora May 20, 2024 ▶ 34:05 Nikesh Arora: Lessons from $102BN Market Cap & How to Create & Sustain Competitive Advantage | E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levie: Box reinvests in headcount whenever AI boosts function productivity
“At least so far empirically, every time that we've done that, we will actually reinvest in that area of the business.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 16:16 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Incumbents will capture AI value as effectively as startups
“That is as much going to be an incumbent's game as a startup's game this time around.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 0:09 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Levie: AI poses no threat to Apple and reinforces platform dominance
“I don't think Apple is, is immediately threatened, threatened by AI. It literally, most of my AI usage is on an Apple product that I have often paid money to Apple to be able to use. So, so like, if I, so like, just like on the most immediate basis, all of my …”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 52:04 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: The workflow automation market could grow 100x due to AI
“So the I think the thing that will 100% guaranteed happen, like in five years from now, this will be the most obvious thing of all time. But when you look at like RPA, you had to be, you know, a relatively deep expert in, in RPA. You had to be like a midsize o…”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 39:13 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: One-person billion-dollar AI startups will be rare novelties
“There's a lot of belief that like, oh, well, well, you might have these solo companies that, you know, become multi-billion dollar companies with just one person or, you know, three people and a bunch of AI. I think that will be done, you know, just by virtue …”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 17:57 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 positive
Opinion
Levie: Zuckerberg is one of the best entrepreneurs of our time
“I think my read on this is you have you know, one of the best entrepreneurs of our time that has basically all of the right underlying resources for AI. So lots of compute, incredible engineers, you know, billions of users, i.e. Lots of data.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 49:30 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024
Insight
Aaron Levie: Leaders should reserve micromanagement for core areas like AI
“I think that the real lesson is now is, is you choose the areas that you need to exert that level of involvement. So and in places like you know, let's say critical areas like AI or end user experience and some product, you know, strategy, you know, you, I sti…”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 48:44 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 negative
Opinion
Levie: A six-month AI pause cannot resolve irreconcilable AI safety philosophies
“Six months is not going to solve this. There are very fundamentally different philosophies in, in the land of AI that, that, that are irreconcilable. They will not, they will never fit together.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 36:46 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Aaron Levie: Incumbent RPA vendors are uniquely positioned to win in AI
“Yeah, I mean, actually, I think being an incumbent RPA vendor is, is actually a great spot because if you already are talking to customers about literally automating business processes and workflows, and there's just a better way to do that and there's nothing…”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 38:40 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bearish
Insight
Levie: AI is the final death knell for on-premise data storage
“AI is kind of the final I would say maybe death knell to that particular approach. If you're, if your data is not in the cloud or in a cloud ready form, I think it's gonna be extremely hard for you to get the full value of AI on your information.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 7:04 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 24, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emad Mostaque: Google spends $20 billion annually on artificial intelligence
“Google spend twenty billion dollars a year on AI.”
Emad Mostaque May 24, 2024 ▶ 10:41 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schroepfer: Meta's 2013 thesis predicted computing moving to AR, VR, AI
“Our analysis was, no, it's gonna both be more integrated into my real world, you know, smart glasses and immersive in VR, and it's gonna be smarter. It's gonna be AI.”
Mike Schroepfer May 29, 2024 ▶ 21:55 Mike Schroepfer: Former Meta CTO on "Why The Best Leaders are Like Music Conductors" | E1158 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 3, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: The AI market could yield ten $100B outcomes
“Maybe there is room for ten hundred billion dollar outcomes, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jun 3, 2024 ▶ 8:44 Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 3, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: AI enterprise spending is entirely taken from traditional SaaS budgets
“It is all being taken. There is no net new. There is no net new.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 3, 2024 ▶ 9:02 Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 7, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will eliminate SDR busywork to enable human personalization
“I do think where it will help SDRs though, is eliminate a bunch of the busy tasks. And so like the hardest part about being an SDR is the little details that you have to pay attention to all day, every day. And that could be. Cleaning and scrubbing your accoun…”
Ashley Kelly Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 5:40 Ashley Kelly: The Playbook to Start and Scale Your SDR Team | E1162 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 positive
Insight
AI Panic Mirrors Historical Opposition to the Printing Press
“Your discourse around AI is like the discourse when the printing press was launched. People would say, this spreads misinformation. You're like, okay, By the way, the printing press was a good thing, you might have noticed.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 1:04:00 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Professionals Not Using AI Will Be Incompetent Within Five Years
“I think that, call it five years from now, there won't be a professional doing professional activity who, if they're not using AI to help them with it, is being fully competent at the profession they're doing.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 6:13 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Will Drive a Cognitive Industrial Revolution
“Artificial intelligence in an economic sense is it's a steam engine of the mind and we'll have a cognitive industrial revolution.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 0:22 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
AI Will Raise Incomes Across All Societal Classes
“I think that AI will raise incomes both for working class people and for, you know, middle class people and for wealthier people. I think it'll raise incomes across all of them.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 48:35 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 neutral
Insight
Users Must Not Proxy Their Judgment of Truth to AI Models
“I mean, it's both, on one sense it's a great you know, kind of companion catalyst in these things. And on the other hand you have to be careful to not, it's just like, for example, don't proxy your judgment of truth to what you happen to have found in a search…”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 3:03 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Putin Using AI Is a Greater Threat Than Autonomous Robots
“The real issue is AI is a human amplifier. I'm a lot less worried that the robots are coming than Putin is coming with his AI enablement.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 0:14 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 10, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Cresta Study Shows Entry-Level Workers Benefit Most From AI
“Like one of Greylock's portfolio companies, Cresta, did a study of which people in the customer service were most benefited by early AI, and it was the entry level people. It was the people coming in, right, and learning the job much more quickly.”
Reid Hoffman Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 49:32 Reid Hoffman: The Future of TikTok and The Inflection AI Deal | E1163 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024 positive
Insight
Alex Wang: Contributing AI data is among highest-leverage human jobs
“I think this process of contributing data to AI is actually one of the highest leverage jobs that humans can have.”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 13:09 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: Investors will lose a lot of money chasing defense tech
“And so people will lose a lot of money chasing the new, new thing, which today happens to be defense in addition to AI.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 30:29 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: AI will disrupt horizontal SaaS processes
“I think in general, horizontal SaaS processes are going to be disrupted by AI.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 17:23 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024
Insight
Eisenberg: 21st century geopolitics will be defined by AI capability
“If the 20th century was about nuclear countries versus non-nuclear countries, the 21st century is AI countries versus non-AI countries.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 25:34 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 19, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eisenberg: Companies will build custom software with AI instead of buying SaaS
“I think you'll see a lot of companies build their own software. Or you have tools that create kind of unique business processes software for a lot of these companies. I don't know if it's tomorrow or in five years, but I think there'll be more of that.”
Michael Eisenberg Jun 19, 2024 ▶ 18:31 Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 26, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bialecki: Software will sell direct outputs over tools within 10-20 years
“I think that's generally the right direction. I'm maybe a little skeptical of how fast, you know, we get there. But I do think if you fast forward, you know, 1020 years, I think there's a lot of processes where, yeah, hey, I just need the output.”
Andrew Bialecki Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 49:09 Andrew Bialecki: Is Klaviyo the Most Under-Priced Public Company? | E1170 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matt Clifford: AI Progress Has Come From Compute and Data, Not Ideas
“Certainly the last five years, but arguably longer, the story of AI is really a story largely about the deployment of just enormous amounts of compute and enormous amounts of data, and not that many new ideas, candidly.”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 5:10 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 1, 2024 negative
Opinion
Matt Clifford: Current AI Is Not More Powerful Than Nuclear Weapons
“I don't think AI today is more powerful than nuclear weapons.”
Matt Clifford Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 40:02 Matt Clifford: The Bull & Bear Case for China's Ability to Challenge the US' AI Capabilities | E1172 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 15, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Motamedi: AI pricing power requires replacing human workflows
“The bet I would take is if you take a slightly longer term view I do think you will be able to price to increase price pricing power, but the way you're going to do that is by really replacing elements of work.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 22:20 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 15, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Saam Motamedi: AI investing is in a crazier bubble than peak ZIRP
“The short answer is yes, we are in a In an exuberant bubble. I think we may not even fully appreciate in how big of a bubble we're in, and what's happening, I could argue, is even crazier than what was happening in peak 2021, 2022 zero interest rate period.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 3:24 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 19, 2024 positive
Opinion
Adams: AI content expansion won't decrease content value as quality wins
“I don't think the value decreases. There's definitely more people creating stuff, but as you very well know, great content rises to the top.”
Cameron Adams Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 12:45 Cameron Adams: How Canva Builds Products: Lessons Learned, What Works? What Flopped? | E1179 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 19, 2024 negative
Opinion
Adams: Single-feature AI microservices are failing due to low underlying value
“I think we're seeing, particularly in the AI space, we're seeing a lot of hype and churn and real microservices, and you're also seeing a lot of those startups kind of fall by the wayside as well as the real, you know, value of them comes to light, and it's no…”
Cameron Adams Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 11:46 Cameron Adams: How Canva Builds Products: Lessons Learned, What Works? What Flopped? | E1179 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 19, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cameron Adams: AI innovation speed will slow down within five years
“In five years time, I would say that AI innovation will have slowed by then, and a lot more will be standardized. Social patterns will be established of like how we interact with AI. The possibilities of what LLM can do are very well understood and known, and …”
Cameron Adams Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 17:24 Cameron Adams: How Canva Builds Products: Lessons Learned, What Works? What Flopped? | E1179 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024 bearish
Insight
Asparouhov: AI eliminates SaaS moats, driving software marginal returns to zero
“People love software because, you know, sort of the marginal distribution costs are zero. Perhaps what people need to realize is also that the marginal returns are zero as well, because there is no moat, because two Stanford kids, especially with today's AI, c…”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 58:23 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 29, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: AI will drive a massive work productivity and wealth bifurcation
“And so I think what you're going to see is this bifurcation where almost certainly there will be more and more people that work less, but there will also be these hyper-efficient people that are augmented by AI, have more wealth, have more people around them t…”
Delian Asparouhov Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 1:07:31 Delian Asparouhov: Inside the Walls of Founders Fund: What the World Does Not See | E1183 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024
Insight
Mollick: Good human managers make better AI power users than coders
“So coders are often not the best users. Often the best users are people who are actually really good at working with humans.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 32:42 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Mollick: His Wharton classes are now 100% AI-based with custom simulators
“My classes are a hundred percent AI based at this point. Students have AI mentors and tutors they talk to. They have AI based assignments. When they learn how to do hiring, I built, we built a simulator that actually makes them have to fake hire somebody and t…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 57:10 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Mollick: AI is 81.7% more persuasive than humans in controlled experiments
“Like now on the other hand, we do find that AI is hyper persuasive already, right? In a controlled experiment where you do, where you're apps to be, you talk to a normal person versus the AI, you're 81.7% more likely to change your views, the AI's view than to…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 1:00:51 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 negative
Insight
Mollick: Lack of AI manuals leads to 'documentation by rumor'
“There is no manual out there for this stuff. There's not even a dissent, like there's not even a set of points about what the AI is good at and what it's bad at. And as a result, like it's, I would call it documentation by rumor.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 15:08 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 positive
Opinion
Mollick: Multimodal interaction is the primary consumer interface for AI
“I think multimodal is really the answer here.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 33:47 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024
Insight
Mollick: Subject matter expertise is critical to making AI work effectively
“Subject matter expertise is going to be absolutely critical in making AI work.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 54:36 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mollick: AI queries use 100x more energy than Google searches
“And the truth is that AI uses a lot more energy per query. We don't know exactly, probably two orders of magnitude than a Google search, but a lot less orders of magnitude energy than a human doing the same amount of work, right, with a laptop.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 59:15 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mollick: AI automating middle management will cause a workplace meaning crisis
“What's going to happen that I'm very worried about is when you realize as a middle manager that AI does your work and nobody cares like, what does that mean for the nature of work? Like, how does that matter if people don't care? Like, if AI subs in and does s…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 1:08:16 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 neutral
Insight
Mollick: AI's 'jagged' capabilities prevent it from fully replacing human labor
“Like right now that, you know, as we talk about in our research, AI is jagged. So it's really good at some stuff, really bad at other things. So, you know, and as a result, it can't sub in for all of human work because on one hand, it'll do a great job and som…”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 9:35 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Mollick: AI accounts for at most 0.1% of US power consumption
“Right now, one percent of US power goes to data centers, and maybe 10% of that goes to AI at most.”
Ethan Mollick Jul 31, 2024 ▶ 59:30 Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024 positive
Opinion
Cahn: AI Demand Will Drive Green Energy Faster Than Government Regulation
“And I think one of the great ironies, and this is me as a capitalist speaking, right, is that the forces of capitalism, AI, will drive more energy revolution than any amount of political regulation could have, right?”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 36:05 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Cahn: Current AI Products Are Not Yet Showing Strong Value Creation
“The burden to deliver value is very, very high in business. And we're not seeing that so strongly in AI yet.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 20:17 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024 negative
Insight
Cahn: Injecting AI for Marketing Adds Costs Without Pricing Power
“If you are simply injecting AI so that you can tell investors that you have AI and so that you can, you know, talk on your marketing page about how you have AI, then you're just injecting a new cost item with actually no benefit to the consumer. And if there's…”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 19:43 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ohanian: Live sports is the one entertainment pillar AI won't disrupt
“I am very long in this age of AI on sports, obviously, because I, that's the one pillar of entertainment that is not going to be upended. Like, we will never want to see robots playing football.”
Alexis Ohanian Aug 7, 2024 ▶ 41:21 Alexis Ohanian: The Full P&L Breakdown of the World's Most Valuable Women's Sports Team | E1187 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 16, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sturdy: Growth investment volume remains high when factoring in AI
“If you add in AI deals, the number, the volume and dollar amount actually looks quite high.”
Laela Sturdy Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 32:12 Laela Sturdy: Life Inside Alphabet's $7BN Growth Fund | E1190 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 19, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Gomez: Believing AI progress has plateaued is completely wrong
“I think there's sort of like a meme that's going around of people saying, we've plateaued, nothing's coming, it's slowing down. I actually really think that's wrong.”
Aidan Gomez Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 48:39 Aidan Gomez: What No One Understands About Foundation Models | E1191 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Opinion
Narayanan: Comparing AI to nuclear weapons is a category error
“I think it's a bit of a category error there. I mean, a nuclear weapon is an actual weapon. AI is not a weapon.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 41:59 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 neutral
Insight
Narayanan: Misinformation is a social media distribution problem, not an AI generation problem
“To the extent it's a technology problem, it's more of a social media problem, really, than an AI problem, because the hard part of misinformation is not generating it, it's distributing it to people and persuading them, and social media is often the medium for…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 33:30 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 positive
Opinion
Narayanan: AI is a net positive for society, unlike Bitcoin
“While there are harms around AI, I think it has been a net positive for society. I can't say the same thing about Bitcoin.”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 2:45 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 bearish
Insight
Narayanan: Misinformation affirms existing beliefs rather than changing them
“In a way, I think misinformation is more of a symptom than a cause. I think, you know, misinformation slots into and affirms people's existing beliefs as opposed to changing their beliefs. And I think the impact on AI here, again, has been tremendously exagger…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 31:46 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: Fears of spontaneous AI consciousness have no basis in reality
“When we look at the way that AI is architected today, that kind of fear has no basis in reality. Maybe one day in the future, you know, people are going to build AI systems where that becomes at least somewhat possible. And we should, you know, we should have …”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 45:41 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024
Insight
Narayanan: AI automates individual tasks, not entire jobs
“You know, the more abstract way of saying that is, as economists would put it, jobs are bundles of tasks, And AI automates tasks, not jobs. So if there are, you know, 20 different tasks that comprise a job the odds that AI is gonna be able to automate all 20 o…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 41:13 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kolter: Winning companies will leverage workforce with AI, not fire them
“The winners in this new world Will the companies that say survive and thrive and become dominant in this new world? Not talking about the AI companies for now, talking about sort of the rest of the companies that the ones that people worry that they're going t…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 21:47 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kolter: AI will accelerate trust erosion until people believe nothing they see
“The real negative outcome is that people are not going to believe anything that they see. It didn't even need AI to get there, but AI is absolutely an accelerant for this process.”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Kolter: LLMs are demonstrably intelligent despite being next-word predictors
“Oftentimes I know people say, oh, well, AI is, it's just predicting words. That's all it's doing. Therefore it can't be intelligent. It can't be. And I think that's just. Demonstrably wrong. What I think is amazing, though, is the scientific fact that when you…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 3:06 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Kolter: Comparing AI to nuclear weapons is an overstated, flawed analogy
“The nuclear weapon analogy is actually not a great one, because nuclear weapons have one purpose, which is to destroy things. Maybe a better analogy is sort of nuclear technology, period, because it has the ability to create nuclear weapons, but it also has th…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 45:19 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024
Opinion
Kolter: AI job loss is a more immediate concern than extinction
“I think killing jobs is much more immediate of a concern than killing humans.”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 53:34 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vishria: AI platform shift could outgrow all previous tech shifts combined
“We have a major, major shift in AI, which could be bigger than any of these other shifts on maybe combined.”
Eric Vishria Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 0:06 Eric Vishria: Where is the Value in AI - Chips, Models or Apps? | E1206 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 2, 2024 positive
Insight
Taylor: AI-generated problems will largely be solved by AI solutions
“I really do believe for most of the problems at AI, there are AI solutions to those problems as well.”
Bret Taylor Oct 2, 2024 ▶ 1:05:29 Bret Taylor: Why Pre-Training is for Morons & Companies Will Build Their Own Software | E1209 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Kant: Believing AI progress will halt in 10 years is a misconception
“That it's going to, that progress is going to halt.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 1:08:19 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kant: Software development will stay developer-led while becoming increasingly AI-assisted
“AI for software developers. I don't think anyone in the world anymore questions that software development moving forward is going to be a, for the foreseeable future, a developer-led, AI-assisted world, an increasingly AI-assisted world.”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 54:49 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Magnificent Seven tech stocks will continue to thrive in AI
“At least in the initial stages of AI, where your data and distribution are so important, I think the mag seven will continue to do quite well.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 43:34 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: AI will rapidly cause massive disruption in call centers
“I think there is going to be massive disruption, for example, in call centers, and I don't think that's going to take a lot of time.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 41:39 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Wang: Claiming AI will eliminate software companies is a naive view
“That I hear now that software companies are going away, right? AI is going to write all, all software. And I just think that's a naive view.”
Jeff Wang Oct 9, 2024 ▶ 41:47 Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2034
McCabe: Intercom has 10 to 20 years before AI threatens its existence
“I wouldn't be working my ass off an intercom if I thought that it was about to die and be crushed by AI in a year or two. So I think we've got a decade, two decades.”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 2:01 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
McCabe: Most VC AI investments will underperform the S&P 500
“Most VC money is going to support a lot of excitement around AI and actually not do better than the S&P 500.”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 8:10 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Insight
McCabe: AI's real-world impact will lag far behind tech development
“The rate at which AI is going to change the whole world is a little overhyped. You know, the raw technologies will be built long before they have real impact on the world.”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 6:18 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024 neutral
Insight
McCabe: Most businesses cannot automate customer service as easily as Klarna
“Certain use cases where the distribution of the types of questions is really tight, rather than this big, long, normal distribution of so many different types of questions, will be able to create these tight custom experiences. If you're a Klarina, for example…”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 13:54 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 11, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: AI will eventually eliminate all traditional software development work
“In the fullness of time, increasingly powerful and abstract AI will do away with You know, all of the work we need to do today to deliver software experiences.”
Eoghan McCabe Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 1:44 Eoghan McCabe, CEO @Intercom: Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control | E1213 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 14, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Frankel: Writing off Salesforce in AI ignores their massive proprietary data advantage
“So Mark Benioff, Salesforce, you write that off at your peril, because the amount of data they have, right, they throw in these AI tools, they're doing their own stuff, right? That is, that, like, their opportunity is enormous”
David Frankel Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 1:06:43 David Frankel, MP @Founder Collective: Investing Lessons from Seeding Coupang, Pillpack & Suno|E1214 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 14, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: Short-Term AI Earnings Will Disappoint Relative to Massive Capex
“So I think in short term, we're going to be, you know, underwhelmed right now. I think if you look at like the amount of capex that's being spent, and you look at the actual earnings that will be generated in the short term, there's just no way it makes sense.”
David Frankel Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 53:23 David Frankel, MP @Founder Collective: Investing Lessons from Seeding Coupang, Pillpack & Suno|E1214 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 21, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hamid: Current AI ground-floor value creation will never be repeated
“We will not see this sort of like, At the ground floor level value creation in our lifetimes ever again.”
Mamoon Hamid Oct 21, 2024 ▶ 1:02:20 Mamoon Hamid: AI - Where Value Accrues, Startups vs Incumbents & Scaling Laws | E1217 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 28, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khachab: AI will replicate years of proprietary software development by 2028
“This thing is going to learn how to code in no time. And maybe not now, maybe not next year, maybe 27, maybe in 28, like where's our technological mode is going to be? Like it might just be gone, like anyone maybe able to replicate what we have built over year…”
Daniel Khachab Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 1:30 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 28, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Khachab: Choco automated large parts of customer care and account management
“We also automate a large part of our customer care, large part of our kind of more account management can kind of work and replace it with AI.”
Daniel Khachab Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 20:35 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 28, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khachab: AI will not enable enterprises to replace Salesforce with internal tools
“I don't think so. Because, okay, like AI today, like even the best LLM won't enable you to build something like Salesforce fairly quickly. There's so much code, so much customization in there. And then plus, even if it would, then you would have to maintain it…”
Daniel Khachab Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 19:50 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 28, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khachab: AI adoption will be faster in traditional industries than in tech
“So the adoption curve is going to be way faster. Like AI is the perfect tool for traditional industries. Much more actually than for kind of like startups and tech, because those are people that are tech first, they know how to work with interfaces and stuff l…”
Daniel Khachab Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 11:41 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 1, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vlad Tenev: AI reasoning models will start replacing knowledge workers within years
“And so I think you will see that in the next couple of years, really really start taking off and good products. Have recently become possible with like the latest models that can reason and make better decisions. The models are likely going to get better and b…”
Vlad Tenev Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 45:59 Vlad Tenev, Co-Founder & CEO @Robinhood: The GameStop Saga & The Future of AI | E1222 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 1, 2024
Insight
Vlad Tenev: Real AI businesses replace existing paid human services cheaply
“I think to me, if there is right now an existing market of people paying a human to do a service for them that AI could replicate at much lower cost, I think that's a real business.”
Vlad Tenev Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 43:22 Vlad Tenev, Co-Founder & CEO @Robinhood: The GameStop Saga & The Future of AI | E1222 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 4, 2024 negative
Insight
Altman: Comparing AI to past tech revolutions is a bad habit
“Everybody likes to use previous examples of a technology revolution to talk about, to put a new one into more familiar context, and A, I think that's a bad habit on the whole, and, but I understand why people do it, and B, I think the ones people pick for Anal…”
Sam Altman Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 30:11 Sam Altman: What Startups Will be Steamrolled by OpenAI & Where is Opportunity | E1223 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 4, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Altman: AI applications will create trillions in new market cap
“There will be many trillions of dollars of Market cap that gets created, new market cap that gets created by using AI to build products and services that were either impossible or quite impractical before”
Sam Altman Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 4:45 Sam Altman: What Startups Will be Steamrolled by OpenAI & Where is Opportunity | E1223 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Jason Citron predicts AI will let 20-person teams build games like Elden Ring
“I mean, I think it's gonna dramatically lower the cost to create incredible content, which means that if you don't, which means you're gonna get, I think you're gonna get games like Elden Ring that are made by teams of, like, 20 people, not 300, and then it's …”
Jason Citron Nov 25, 2024 ▶ 32:21 Jason Citron, Co-Founder/CEO @Discord: The Untold Story Behind Scaling to 200M Users | E1230 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2024
Insight
Podjarny: Massive gap exists between impressive AI demos and working products
“It's very easy to create amazing videos in AI, amazing demos and it's, there's a big, big gap between that and creating a reliably working product, hence the jagged edge of AI.”
Guy Podjarny Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 16:18 Guy Podjarny: The Future of AI Software Development - What is Real & What is BS | E1232 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2024 negative
Insight
Podjarny: Legal and insurance issues will delay AI adoption more than tech
“I think people underestimate the non-technology parts of adopting AI. I think AI is a transformative or a disruptive technology, not a sustaining one, and it requires people to change, it requires kind of accountability to change, insurance, and things like th…”
Guy Podjarny Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 4:56 Guy Podjarny: The Future of AI Software Development - What is Real & What is BS | E1232 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Podjarny: AI will alter job scopes, not overall tech company structures
“I don't think a lot of the structure will change dramatically. I think the roles of the different positions, the sort of the scope of what they can do are the things that will change.”
Guy Podjarny Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 34:45 Guy Podjarny: The Future of AI Software Development - What is Real & What is BS | E1232 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 9, 2024 neutral
Insight
Benioff: AI Advances in Cycles of Breakthrough, Commoditization, and Plateau
“In the last 60 years, the history of AI is a new model or a new technology will come along, and a bunch of folks will kind of get to the point where it becomes a commodity, and then we kind of hold until we wait to the next one, and then it goes on”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 14:05 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Hoffman: Prioritizing 'woke AI' is silly and misses AI's real stakes
“Now, the challenges would be is, what if he goes, no, no, the most important issue facing AI is woke AI. Because we have this calling card, which means a whole bunch of different kind of, You know, like, you know, these people are evil and terrible. That's sil…”
Reid Hoffman Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 11:44 Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 16, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Hoffman: Data centers and AI consume single-digit percentages of global power
“Data centers, I think, are something like, it's some single digit percentage of all power consumption. Like three, something, so it's not very big. And then AI within data centers is like, you know, a single digit percentage of that. So currently AI is not acc…”
Reid Hoffman Dec 16, 2024 ▶ 25:13 Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn & Paypal Founder: Trump Administration, Elon Musk and DOGE | E1239 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2024
Insight
Dines: Material desires waste cognitive bandwidth better spent on AI and learning
“Thinking about a bigger kitchen will take cycles from reading, understanding world, understanding people, understanding AI.”
Daniel Dines Dec 18, 2024 ▶ 53:58 Daniel Dines, UiPath CEO & Founder: Why Agents Do Not Mean RPA is F*** | E1240 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2024
Disclosure
Dines: UiPath's main challenges are becoming AI-first and re-energizing staff
“My biggest challenge is is transforming the company to be an AI-first company, and re-energizing our people that you know, we had...”
Daniel Dines Dec 18, 2024 ▶ 42:13 Daniel Dines, UiPath CEO & Founder: Why Agents Do Not Mean RPA is F*** | E1240 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will eliminate functional silos in product development within 10 years
“The siloization of functional orgs are going away. AI is, is reimagining what it means to write code or to do analytics and even to do design. And the most versatile problem solvers and thinkers are just going to be able to cover more ground than they're able …”
Dan Gill Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 59:32 Dan Gill, CPO @Carvana: The Most Wild Story in Public Markets | E1243 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Carvana's deterministic, algorithmic systems give it a structural AI advantage over dealerships
“Whereas in our world, all of these systems are deterministic and algorithmic and have been built that way from day zero. And so we can have an LLM tell you, Harry, given your credit score and the VIN of the vehicle that you entered you have 3000 dollars of pos…”
Dan Gill Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 44:31 Dan Gill, CPO @Carvana: The Most Wild Story in Public Markets | E1243 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 10, 2025
Insight
Mikey Shulman: The team that runs high-quality AI experiments fastest will win
“Experimental physicists just get good at running high-quality experiments really quickly, and AI is an empirical discipline, and so whoever can run more high-quality experiments quickly will win.”
Mikey Shulman Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 9:30 Mikey Shulman, CEO @Suno: The Future of Music, What is Gonna Happen? | E1244 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 10, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shulman: Foreign actors will build worse AI music if US fails to lead
“We can actively build a bigger, better future of music with AI, or we can just wait, and someone else in another country, not bound by US laws, not with the same intentions will build a worse future of music with AI.”
Mikey Shulman Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 48:13 Mikey Shulman, CEO @Suno: The Future of Music, What is Gonna Happen? | E1244 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 13, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Pishevar: Quantum and AI merger will cure all diseases within 10 years
“Quantum and AI, even at the chipset level, are going to merge. And then that's going to revolutionize all aspects of our lives. We'll find cures to every known disease known to mankind within, I would say, the next 10 years.”
Shervin Pishevar Jan 13, 2025 ▶ 1:08:32 Shervin Pishevar: What Really Happened in the Firing of Travis Kalanick | E1245 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2025
Insight
Riparbelli: Human trust and integration, not technology, are AI's main bottleneck
“I think most of the rate limiting and how quickly AI becomes a part of our daily life is actually not the technology. As I said earlier, I think we have very, very powerful LLM, so they can do a lot of like great things, look at better and better, but the rate…”
Victor Riparbelli Jan 15, 2025 ▶ 55:53 Victor Riparbelli, CEO @Synthesia: OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai - Who Wins and Why | E1246 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 17, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
SaaS tools will remain essential despite AI agent automation
“I don't think that, you know, SAS tools will go away. I think if anything, some of the work can be replaced by AI, but still the fundamental principle of why those tools exist is, is strong and will remain going forward.”
Eran Zinman Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 44:32 Eran Zinman, Co-Founder & Co-CEO @Monday.com: Going Upmarket, International and Multi-Product |E1247 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: AI will increase financial firms' AUM and drive employment
“I think that it will change the way that people do work, but I genuinely believe that, ah, it'll actually increase the AUM of the firms that use it. I think it will actually drive more employment.”
George Sivulka Jan 22, 2025 ▶ 33:43 George Sivulka, Co-Founder & CEO @Hebbia: The Future of Foundation Models | E1250 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sivulka: RPA is simple computation, not modern AI
“I think that I actually am not a big believer in RPA. I think RPA is a, is almost not an AI application in the new sense of AI. It's like AI in the old 10 years ago sense of AI where RPA, RPA is effectively, like, very simple computation.”
George Sivulka Jan 22, 2025 ▶ 25:12 George Sivulka, Co-Founder & CEO @Hebbia: The Future of Foundation Models | E1250 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 24, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI-Supplemented Onboarding Will Reduce Sales Rep Attrition
“I think we'll also see attrition rates come down because we'll be able to use AI to supplement onboarding.”
Carlos Delatorre Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 1:00:11 Carlos Delatorre, CRO @Harness: Why Every Sales Rep Should Do Pipeline Generation | E1251 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 24, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Will Automate Sales Research and Prep Work
“I think AI will automate a lot of the research, a lot of the prep work.”
Carlos Delatorre Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 59:47 Carlos Delatorre, CRO @Harness: Why Every Sales Rep Should Do Pipeline Generation | E1251 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025
Insight
Hyatt: Expert data exhaust improves both AI products and underlying models
“If you are running a next gen product with AI deeply embedded, and you have the best users using that product, that will inform you to make better products for those users and inform the models that you're building.”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 53:36 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hyatt: Taste will be the main AI differentiator as execution becomes automated
“Especially in the world of AI, only taste is going to matter in the future because execution is just going to happen, right?”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 26:58 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Spreadsheet-driven SaaS investing will make VCs obsolete in AI
“I'm really concerned that actually the way that we've always invested Maybe more spreadsheet SaaS investing. It's gonna make us dinosaurs if we don't move with the times.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 1:01 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025
Insight
Hyatt: B2B SaaS investing was about metrics; AI is a mystery
“Greg Treverton uses this phrase of puzzles versus mysteries, which is just like puzzles are this thing that you can like, you know, use that raw horsepower to solve. And mysteries are, you know, there you have to go on the journey. There's like fog of war and …”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 1:47 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025
Insight
Hyatt: Web 2.0 was the wisdom of crowds; AI is the wisdom of experts
“I think web two point now was very much the kind of wisdom of crowds, and we're at an age where it's the wisdom of experts.”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 53:17 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025 negative
Insight
Hyatt: Long-term static moats do not exist for modern AI startups
“But some kind of compounding effect where we think no matter what happens after this year, it's eBay, they just launch a product and 40 years later, the product looked basically exactly the same and it's just fine. Like that, that, those ages are not right now…”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 30:38 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will collapse product cycles by skipping documentation for prototyping
“And I think AI completely collapses that cycle and accelerates a lot of the upfront up funnel work where, where again, you can just do, you can build a prototype and you can show that to customers and like the PM and the designer might just work collaborativel…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 9:06 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Top 5% of tech talent gains value in the AI era
“The top one percent, the top five percent of all of the skill sets get a lot more valuable and the median gets a lot less valuable.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 38:27 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will cause engineering, product, and design roles to converge
“And I think we will see that we'll see a collapsing or converging of the end product design triad. I think they will never be the same, but I think everything will be pulled in tighter. So I think all of that will change.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 6:29 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2025
Insight
Tolkin: AI expands PM tools but core product skillset stays unchanged
“I think what changes is your ability to communicate those ideas, your ability to do more upfront, your ability to do better user research because you can show prototypes easier. So I think the tool chest gets bigger, but the core skillset of like, Actually fig…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 7:22 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: AI Will Not Replace Software Engineering Anytime Soon
“I don't think software engineering is going to disappear anytime soon.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 6:44 Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO @Snowflake: Deepseek is Not a Threat to OpenAI & OpenAI Beats Anthropic|E1258 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: Enterprise AI Adoption Growth Will Be Gentle, Not Exponential
“I think it is going to be gentler. In terms of just growth. On the other hand I can very confidently tell you that AI is creating value today, and it'll continue to create enduring value.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 33:45 Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO @Snowflake: Deepseek is Not a Threat to OpenAI & OpenAI Beats Anthropic|E1258 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 10, 2025 positive
Insight
Ramaswamy: AI is a translation layer between structured and unstructured knowledge
“You know, my sort of the simplistic, but fairly accurate description of what AI can do is like, it is this incredible Translation layer between all kinds of knowledge. Unstructured. Structured you can make sense of it all in a way that only humans were able to…”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 4:39 Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO @Snowflake: Deepseek is Not a Threat to OpenAI & OpenAI Beats Anthropic|E1258 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2025 neutral
Insight
Software development must address user problems rather than forcing AI
“You have to start with the problem. A lot of people start with the solution. I want to do AI. That's the solution. But if you start from the problem, you look where people are wasting time, where they are inefficient, then you get to good use case. And from th…”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 57:35 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Infinite AI content supply will make discovery inherently harder
“I'm worried that AI will create an infinite supply of content. And what happens obviously if you, As an economist, which, you know, I'm not for sure but as a venture investor I proclaim to be one it reduces the cost reduces, like, price. Infinite supply will a…”
Harry Stebbings Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 47:47 Solly Solomou, Founder & CEO @ LADbible Group: From Penniless Shop Offices to Public Company | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Solomou: Generative AI will compose 25-30% of future movie content
“So for us in an entertainment business, you can imagine a world where we're creating movies. And because of that democratization and the access to technology and using and embracing technology like that, the cost of creating a movie where maybe 25%, 30% of it …”
Solly Solomou Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 46:53 Solly Solomou, Founder & CEO @ LADbible Group: From Penniless Shop Offices to Public Company | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 17, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: AI will exacerbate society's loss of drive and agency
“And so we have this sort of financial diabetes as a society, and I think it's going to get worse with AI.”
Jonathan Ross Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 1:10:08 Jonathan Ross, Founder & CEO @ Groq: NVIDIA vs Groq - The Future of Training vs Inference | E1260 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 17, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: AI could deliver longevity breakthrough within 10 years
“Belief is that if it is possible to significantly slow or stop aging, I think that you will have a Manjaro moment in maybe the next 10 years.”
Jonathan Ross Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 1:17:47 Jonathan Ross, Founder & CEO @ Groq: NVIDIA vs Groq - The Future of Training vs Inference | E1260 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 20, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hiremath: AI will only finish 60-80% of tasks, increasing human value
“But I think the more realistic breakdown is the AI for a specific use case might be able to get us 6070, 80% of the way there. But for that remaining 40, 30, 20%, you're going to need a human To be able to take you all the way there. And the reality of the sit…”
Adarsh Hiremath Feb 20, 2025 ▶ 23:02 Adarsh Hiremath @ Mercor: The Fastest Growing Startup in Silicon Valley | E1261 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 28, 2025 positive
Insight
Bonaci: AI Eliminated the Need for Growth Candidates to Be Technical
“You don't need to be nearly as technical as you used to like, AI can help you write the code. It can tell you other ways of doing things. Like it's even just like in that element of like who I would used to like have a bias for hiring. It's totally changed.”
George Bonaci Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 43:42 George Bonaci, VP of Growth @Ramp: How Ramp Became the Fastest Growing SaaS Company Ever |E1264 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 28, 2025 negative
Insight
Bonaci: Automated AI spending tools produce incremental gains, not growth alpha
“It could be personalized, but almost by definition, that's just going to give you incremental gains on things you're already doing and things that has data on.”
George Bonaci Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 42:55 George Bonaci, VP of Growth @Ramp: How Ramp Became the Fastest Growing SaaS Company Ever |E1264 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Opinion
Krieger: Descript features some of the best product design in AI
“Descript, I think Descript is some of the best product design in AI, and, like, they've clearly put so much time into the workflow.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 40:23 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: AI is not yet indispensable for most workers
“I still think we are in, like, day one around, is AI an indispensable part of most people's work? And I think the answer is no.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 37:38 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025
Insight
Krieger: AI product design must build for model capabilities 3 months out
“The very thing about AI and product design is you have to dance this very delicate dance of showing the future and dreaming up what the models are currently capable at their edges, you know, cause you want to design for where they'll be, gosh, three months fro…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 3:08 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025
Insight
Osika: Having a team slows down founders shipping V1 SaaS products
“Hey, if you want to ship the first version of your SaaS and start making money, it's all you. It's not a team. Like a team just slows you down.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 13:19 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025
Insight
Osika: AI can easily destroy existing codebases without engineer oversight
“But once you have existing software, With users, and then you want to iterate and change that software, AI might absolutely bring down, kind of mess up your entire codebase.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 13:31 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2025 negative
Opinion
Östberg: Public AI narratives are cosmetic compared to actual operational efficiency
“If you have a story or not, that's a little bit Cosmetics. I don't care for that cosmetic so much. I care for actually leveraging and truly make our business better for it.”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:05:45 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Östberg: Average companies deploying AI will benefit more than the Magnificent Seven
“I think Gen AI or the largest beneficiary of AI is, is going to be the average company deploying it and not necessarily the mag seven the ones who are building it. I think that is probably contrarian In this, at least if I look at the stock market, we will see…”
Niklas Östberg Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 1:04:59 Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 14, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Klarna is not replacing all of its SaaS with AI
“And we have companies like Klarna who are saying, oh, we're replacing all of our SaaS with AI. They're not, they're absolutely not. And they won't.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 11:25 20Product: How to Design and Build Products in a World of Agents | Why AI Will Kill Many SaaS Products | What Products Will Thrive and Die in a World of 100M Developers with Matt Biilmann, Co-Founder and CEO @ Netlify
Mar 17, 2025
Insight
Rangan: AI features must evolve from neat novelties to necessary daily workflows
“A product is kind of like neat and novel. They're going to use it for one day, and then they're probably going to check it out again once every two weeks, or maybe they're not going to, and then they churn out. So it's really the difference between neat and ne…”
Yamini Rangan Mar 17, 2025 ▶ 35:33 Yamini Rangan, CEO @ HubSpot: How HubSpot Competes Against Salesforce · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 17, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Rangan: HubSpot halted its product roadmap in November 2022 for AI
“When AI came on the scene in 20, 22, November, we fairly immediately moved into products, you know, product building, and we changed our roadmap. We actually stopped our roadmap, changed the roadmap, and started building product.”
Yamini Rangan Mar 17, 2025 ▶ 4:33 Yamini Rangan, CEO @ HubSpot: How HubSpot Competes Against Salesforce · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 17, 2025 positive
Prediction Held up
HubSpot will integrate AI natively instead of selling standalone SKUs
“We have a deep conviction that there's one product, which is an AI product, and it's going to be inbuilt into every hub and every part of the platform. And that means Monetization is the entire platform”
Yamini Rangan Mar 17, 2025 ▶ 4:53 Yamini Rangan, CEO @ HubSpot: How HubSpot Competes Against Salesforce · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 positive
Insight
Singlehurst: AI tools will not completely disrupt core fintech complexities
“And again, like, you know, I think coming back to financial technology, I think this is quite a good area where the difficulties and the nuances of those kinds of companies is, you know, a lot of it is about like how you manage regulation. And like, will AI so…”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 17:13 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Singlehurst: Pre-AI companies with hard-to-replicate products will remain exceptional
“I think there's a possibility of that, but I would say that there will still be companies that, that are from that sort of pre AI era that will still be exceptional companies because they have a particular way of building a product that is just very difficult …”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 16:56 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Torres: AI will displace B2B corporate workforces despite optimistic predictions
“That's bullshit, right? I just, it's just, you have had some guests here that I love and respect, but they're like, Oh yeah, we're gonna get larger, you know, in five years, and I'm like, what? I just saw something, you know, somebody posted on Twitter, it's l…”
Elias Torres Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 25:19 Elias Torres, Co-Founder and CEO @ Agency: What No One Tells You About Selling Your Company · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 21, 2025
Disclosure
Elias Torres earned $2 million in six months consulting on AI
“The reality is that, you know, I made, like, two million dollars in, like, just over, like, six, seven months consulting AI.”
Elias Torres Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 1:04:33 Elias Torres, Co-Founder and CEO @ Agency: What No One Tells You About Selling Your Company · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Feldman: AI adoption will equal cell phone penetration within two years
“I do think that Within a year or two. AI's penetration will be approximately the same as telephones, cell phones.”
Andrew Feldman Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 1:07:02 Andrew Feldman, Cerebras Co-Founder and CEO: The AI Chip Wars & The Plan to Break Nvidia's Dominance · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Green: The West completely underestimates China's capabilities in AI
“A hundred percent. I just have seen how hard people in China work at some of these tech companies.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:02:57 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 negative
Opinion
Green: Venture capital was facing a rude awakening before AI emerged
“I think the venture industry was about to be in for a rude awakening, and then AI showed up.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 55:32 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Green: Existing software companies will not be wiped out by AI
“Are all of our software companies going to be completely disrupted and all of them go away? And like, I don't know, like I'm taking a stand that it's they're not. But like, I guess I could be totally wrong.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 1:16:39 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Scott: 95% of net new code will be AI-generated within five years
“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”
Kevin Scott Mar 31, 2025 ▶ 30:30 Kevin Scott, CTO @ Microsoft: An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 3, 2025
Insight
Lemkin: AI software startups have no moats and must run faster
“What, and there's, and this is an age in AI where there's no moats. So if there's no moat, you better run faster.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 26:12 20VC: The Daily Deal: Coreweave IPO | Scale Hits $25BN on $2BN EOY Revenue | Sequoia's 25x Return on Wiz | Tech Stocks Tank with Tariffs | Cursor: Defensible or Dangerous Example of Lost Moats in Tech
Apr 7, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Garcia: Carvana is currently weakest in AI integration
“Relatively speaking, I think we're weakest there, but because it's just a new set of capabilities that we have not invested in for a long period of time.”
Ernest Garcia Apr 7, 2025 ▶ 11:40 Carvana CEO & Co-Founder, Ernest Garcia: Building a $50B Company, Losing 99% and Coming Back · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Garcia: Businesses use only a fraction of AI's current capabilities
“I think all businesses today are using AI at, you know, a small, small, small fraction of what's possible given the quality of the technology today.”
Ernest Garcia Apr 7, 2025 ▶ 11:16 Carvana CEO & Co-Founder, Ernest Garcia: Building a $50B Company, Losing 99% and Coming Back · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2025 positive
Insight
Garcia: Physical operations create defensibility as AI makes software easily replicable
“I think that like, as it sits today, I think you want to have. Meaningful physical processes where things are moving and ideally different business processes where the dots are connected in different ways. And then the software layer like makes all that happen…”
Ernest Garcia Apr 7, 2025 ▶ 9:01 Carvana CEO & Co-Founder, Ernest Garcia: Building a $50B Company, Losing 99% and Coming Back · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Opinion
Hulme: AI drives a stronger power law than past tech cycles
“My belief is that AI is creating a real power law, far more than we've ever seen before.”
Tom Hulme Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 19:24 Tom Hulme & Stan Boland: Lessons from Jensen Huang & How to Fix the UK Tech Ecosystem · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2025 bullish
Insight
Nayak: Software unit testing should be entirely automated by AI
“Individual engineers still use AI somewhat for writing their own unit tests, but that whole layer of unit testing should just be all AI.”
Aatish Nayak Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 58:18 20Product: How Scale AI and Harvey Build Product | Why PMs Are Wrong: They are not the CEOs of the Product | How to do Pre and Post Mortems Effectively and How to Nail PRDs | The Future of Product Management in a World of AI with Aatish Nayak
Apr 14, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lazarte: Consumers will soon blindly follow instructions given by AI apps
“I think this thing that will happen quite soon is, like, we're gonna have an app, and like, you're gonna wake up, and you're gonna look at your app, and you're gonna read what it says, and you're just gonna do it. Like, the app will tell us, like, go do this. …”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 47:35 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lazarte: Claims that AI only augments workers are "bullshit"
“Big companies still talking about like, oh no, AI, AI is not replacing people. AI is actually augmenting people's abilities. Like this is bullshit. You know, like it's fully replacing people.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2035
Lazarte: Only 1% of computer knowledge work will exist in 10 years
“What percentage of knowledge work as we know today will exist in 10 years? Like if you define work, knowledge work as work you do behind a computer, I think it's probably like one percent.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 38:50 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lazarte: AI market shift is much bigger than mobile
“I think the reality is, AI is a big shift. I think AI is much bigger than mobile. Maybe, like, all the other magnitude of the internet.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 36:54 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lazarte: AI will understand most people better than anyone within 5 years
“I have this very strong belief that five years from now, for the majority of people, the person that will understand you the most is going to be an AI.”
Victor Lazarte Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 14:09 Benchmark GP, Victor Lazarte: The 3 Traits All the Best Founders Have · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 18, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Socher: The market is not currently in an AI bubble
“I don't think we're in an AI bubble period.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 24:08 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: AI will solve major medical problems within ten years
“Yes. That is one of, like, several, like, several chapters in my book are about that.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 32:17 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 18, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: AI will turn every individual contributor into a manager
“With AI, every person will become a manager, but most people are not used to managing other people or processes.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 15:38 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: Lower marginal cost of AI will expand usage everywhere
“And so I think the analogy here is that yes, AI, like the cost, the marginal cost of intelligence keeps going down, but that just means we're going to use it more and more places.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 25:11 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 18, 2025 positive
Insight
Socher: Opposition to AI stems from hourly billing mindsets versus outcome orientation
“Cause every person that cares about outcomes and outputs loves AI. It's only the people who think of how to make money in terms of hours spent that might not like AI.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 59:12 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 21, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Wilk: AI Handles 80% of Customer Support Inquiries at Dave
“And we also now have 80% of our customer support inquiries are driven by AI”
Jason Wilk Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 27:10 Dave CEO, Jason Wilk: The Best Performing Fund Would Only Back YC Founders on Their Second Time · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 21, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilk: AI Investments Drove Dave's Return to Profitability
“The investments again in AI is really what led to a lot of the profitability.”
Jason Wilk Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 28:15 Dave CEO, Jason Wilk: The Best Performing Fund Would Only Back YC Founders on Their Second Time · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Vertical SaaS will avoid AI overcrowding due to domain barriers
“Vertical SAS is still under invested in because the AI wave is just coming to vertical SAS. It's just starting in a lot of these categories and you're going to see five competitors, but you're not going to see 500 in a lot of categories in legal. You are in sa…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 59:45 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: LMS is one of the worst startup sectors for investment
“The LMS space, this was already overcrowded before AI, right? Wait, this is LMS was one of these classic spaces of too many vendors for a midsize Tam, right? That's the worst area to invest in.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 58:46 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Mainstream enterprise AI market remains 90% untapped
“A hundred percent of the early adopters are in market. And that's why I think it's early because 90% of sales, the enterprise is not even there.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 22:34 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Rory O'Driscoll: AI hype is bigger than PC and internet hypes combined
“The important thing about AI is that if you compare the hype, if you look at PC hype, internet hype, and AI hype is bigger than all the other hypes put together in terms of just raw belief that it's all gonna matter, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 20:43 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI will strengthen enterprise software and weaken SMB leaders
“I think AI helps the enterprises on balance and hurts the SMB players on balance. The SMB players just don't have as deep. They have a lot of data, but it's not as deep. You can disrupt them faster. The sales cycles are quicker. I don't know this. We'll see th…”
Jason Lemkin May 1, 2025 ▶ 45:30 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Lemkin: AI will replace half of sales and customer success teams
“Half of these sales teams will be gone in two years. Half of these sales and customer success teams will be gone in two years because they're mediocre. They'll be gone. They're all going to be laid off.”
Jason Lemkin May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:26:41 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Salesforce commits 20% of its code through AI
“Even Salesforce commits 20% of their code through AI.”
Jason Lemkin May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:25:46 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: B2B software companies that fail to dominate AI will die
“Your companies are going to go under if they're not dominating AI in their market in B to B, they're all going to die.”
Jason Lemkin May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:23:25 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 5, 2025 positive
Insight
Moore: Enterprise AI adoption is fundamentally faster than prior cloud cycles
“So I think this is fundamentally different. And if you compare it to cloud, for example, adoption was fairly slow in the beginning, right? Kind of gradually, then suddenly. Here, I think the difference is that there's this broad-based consensus that Failure to…”
Bucky Moore May 5, 2025 ▶ 57:40 Bucky Moore @ Lightspeed Venture Partners: Why You Cannot Do VC If You Do Not Do Pre-Seed · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Lemkin: SaaStr eliminated five jobs in 90 days due to AI
“Literally, we, even at Sastra, we've gotten rid of five people in our team in the last 90 days due to AI.”
Jason Lemkin May 8, 2025 ▶ 33:05 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2025 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
O'Driscoll: AI will not cause mass unemployment within 12 to 24 months
“I don't buy the mass unemployment in 12, 24 months.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 8, 2025 ▶ 32:21 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Lemkin: AI will replace half of knowledge workers in 24 months
“Half of these knowledge workers are going to be gone in 24 months”
Jason Lemkin May 8, 2025 ▶ 31:31 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
O'Driscoll: Klarna's AI adoption will not deliver step-function profit growth
“Take Klarna as the public example. I mean, they talked boldly and they probably did save those people, right? But I think in the end you'll discover it'll have roughly the same profits as other lenders. It'll be marginally more efficient. It won't be a step fu…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 8, 2025 ▶ 35:31 Benchmark vs a16z: Why Stage Specific Firms Win · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 12, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Akhund: Avoiding AI Investments as the Sector Is Overhyped and Overvalued
“And, you know, I've ended up especially recently avoiding AI. I think AI is overhyped and overvalued.”
Immad Akhund May 12, 2025 ▶ 38:44 20VC Exclusive: Mercury Founder Launches First $26M Fund with Immad Akhund · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Almost Every Tech Job Will Change by Mid-2026
“I don't think it's five years to Rory said, I think it's, I think by the middle of next year in tech, almost every single person's job will have changed by the middle of next year.”
Jason Lemkin May 15, 2025 ▶ 40:17 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Capitalizing on Executive AI Fear Is a Winning GTM Strategy
“I do think being the vendor to take advantage of AI fear is a great strategy the next 18 months.”
Jason Lemkin May 15, 2025 ▶ 1:12:56 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 16, 2025 positive
Insight
Yamashita: AI tools lower entry barriers while boosting top-tier productivity
“I always like to go back to our own framework of how AI helps with design, which is that it does both lower the floor and raise the ceiling, right, which is that it makes, in our case, design, but in this case, coding more accessible and approachable to everyo…”
Yuhki Yamashita May 16, 2025 ▶ 24:45 20Product: Figma CPO on How Figma Builds Products: What Works, What Does Not | How Figma Does Testing and Product Reviews | The Future of Design, Engineering and Product with Yuhki Yamashita
May 16, 2025 positive
Insight
Yamashita: Design and human craft will differentiate software in the AI era
“There's a sea of software, you know, everyone can make some product, and it's really about, well, what is going to help differentiate One product from the next, and we deeply believe it's great design, great craft, and that's not something that, like, you can …”
Yuhki Yamashita May 16, 2025 ▶ 49:55 20Product: Figma CPO on How Figma Builds Products: What Works, What Does Not | How Figma Does Testing and Product Reviews | The Future of Design, Engineering and Product with Yuhki Yamashita
May 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Hacker: Duolingo built its chess course in a record nine months
“Because of AI, again, we were able to build this within nine months. This is fastest way ever created a new course.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 42:02 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Severin Hacker: AI will enable companies built with 10x fewer employees
“We're in the middle of this massive transformation. You can build companies with probably 10 times fewer employees.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 58:07 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Hacker: Content generation has been Duolingo's biggest AI win
“We use AI in three ways at Duolingo. Number one is content generation, and that's where we've seen, you know, the biggest success. It's just completely changed it, like how we produce content.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 9:45 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hacker: AI will never motivate students on why learning matters
“It's like an AI will never tell you like why you should learn this. It's like the help you learn it, but it's not going to tell you know, why should I learn this? Why is this important?”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 48:43 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025
Disclosure
Hacker: 80% of CTO focus at Duolingo is AI, remainder on M&A
“I'm now a little bit out of the weeds, and I'm thinking more, right now, actually, I'm only focused on two things. One is like, this question is with AI, like, what's gonna happen? Like, what does the future look like in, you know, in our space? What is the im…”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 1:01:37 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hacker: Human-to-human interaction value will rise significantly despite AI
“No, I, that, that I don't believe, I don't, in fact, I think, no, I think the human to human interaction, the value of that will go up significantly.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 1:40:38 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Duolingo created 148 courses in one year using AI
“It took us, I think, 12 years to build the first hundred courses or so. And now, within one year, we built another 148 courses.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 4:22 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hacker: AI will cause product, engineering, and design roles to converge
“But with AI, you can see that there's maybe like a new role, kind of a product engineer designer, like one person who can do all of these roles to certain, you know, degree, like they can build a prototype and then maybe at some point they need to hand it off …”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 15:38 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hacker: AI handles 70% to 80% of Duolingo customer support tickets
“And we have found for a lot of the, you know, AI can do 70 to 80% of the tickets that we get.”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 24:17 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Tech executives are eager to replace bottom 30% of headcount with AI
“The basic vibe was everyone recognized 20 to 30% of their team's gonna be replaced with AI, and they're happy for it.”
Jason Lemkin May 22, 2025 ▶ 1:03:19 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: SaaS is not dying, and AI-forward companies will reaccelerate growth
“This whole SaaS is dying is bullshit. It's changing. And you better be AI forward or dead. But if you are, I'm very certain that if you do the right, make the right moves, you can grab hold of this thing and can, you know, not just grow, but reaccelerate growt…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 22, 2025 ▶ 1:02:37 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI replacement cycle for incumbent SaaS apps will take 10+ years
“I do believe AI will exert pressure on some of these apps in terms of newer solutions to do it, but I do think we should assume that the replacement cycle plays out over 10 plus years.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 22, 2025 ▶ 1:16:41 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin predicts mass tech layoffs within 24 months despite flat headcount
“I think we're going to see mass layoffs in the next 24 months, but I don't think the net headcount is, I think the net headcount is going to stay flat, right?”
Jason Lemkin May 29, 2025 ▶ 1:04:32 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rory O'Driscoll predicts corporate America will stick to bland AI messaging for two years
“The messaging from corporate America will be bland with a slight hint of upside on the stock, but not being so direct that it alienates all your employees. That is going to be corporate speak for the next two years.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 29, 2025 ▶ 1:07:12 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI will cut annual hiring by 2% to 3%
“I don't think it'll be, quote, mass layoffs. I think it'll be more of a steady grind of two or three percent less hiring per year.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 29, 2025 ▶ 1:06:51 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 29, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Duolingo built 140 courses in one year with AI
“In 10 years they made a 140 courses with humans, and in a year they made a 140 courses. So 10 years of work took them one year with AI.”
Harry Stebbings May 29, 2025 ▶ 1:04:48 OpenAI’s $6BN Jony Ive Deal & YC Is Both Chanel and Walmart, and Has Officially Won! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
AI will increase demand for sales reps by spawning new companies
“And I think AI is going to drive so much more company creation that there will be a consistent demand For these roles, because the economics of the roles get better. There's more companies that need sales reps.”
Kyle Norton May 30, 2025 ▶ 1:13:15 20Sales: From $2M ARR to $40M ARR: The Playbook | How to Use AI To Supercharge Your Sales Team | Why Pipeline Reviews are BS | The Sales Call Script that Closes 99% of Prospects and How to Hire the Best Sales Reps with Kyle Norton, CRO @ Owner
Jun 2, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mohan: AI will impact all software engineering phases, making each 10x more effective
“I think this idea that software engineering, there's like a part of software engineering that AI is not going to touch because it's too hard, I think is, is just going to be wrong. I think every aspect is going to become 10 times more effective.”
Varun Mohan Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 45:43 Windsurf CEO & Co-Founder, Varun Mohan: AI's Biggest Acquisition to Date! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: AI token costs collapsed 99.7% over two years
“Token costs collapsed, 99.7% in two years.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 50:16 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: AI startups represent 70% of the current Y Combinator batch
“They're trying to get everyone to 50 to 60 that are AI, that just have AI, which is 70% of the batch.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 1:10:20 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: The next generation will not use files or traditional software interfaces
“I think what I do know is that this generation will not use the Internet remotely like we do. They will not use lead contacts and opportunities. They will not use files. Files are disappearing overnight. Kids do not know what a file is. It does not matter. And…”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 55:20 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 9, 2025 negative
Opinion
Kaufman: Human content creators are effectively working for AI models
“Harry, I have news for you. You are working for AI and so do I. Because we're producing content and that content is going to be eaten by a machine and used to produce new stuff.”
Micha Kaufman Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 41:38 Fiverr CEO & Founder, Micha Kaufman: "If You’re Not Adapting to AI, F* You. You’re Done!" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 9, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Kaufman: I do not use AI tools to write my communications
“I don't use AI to write which is very important for me.”
Micha Kaufman Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:22 Fiverr CEO & Founder, Micha Kaufman: "If You’re Not Adapting to AI, F* You. You’re Done!" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 9, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaufman: Workers who fail to adapt to AI will be poor or burdens on society
“Seriously, if you're not going to take the time to make yourself valuable, to embrace reality, you're doomed. I'm not going to help you. If you don't want to do this, you're either going to be poor or a burden on society.”
Micha Kaufman Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 0:06 Fiverr CEO & Founder, Micha Kaufman: "If You’re Not Adapting to AI, F* You. You’re Done!" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 9, 2025 negative
Insight
Kaufman: Asking tech CEOs for five-year plans during AI shift is laughable
“People that ask me, oh what do you think what do you think the business is going to look like in five years? I start laughing. It's a laughable question. You can have grand general ideas, but people that ask you to describe it are just out of touch with what w…”
Micha Kaufman Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 45:44 Fiverr CEO & Founder, Micha Kaufman: "If You’re Not Adapting to AI, F* You. You’re Done!" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 positive
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI software expands market size by capturing labor dollars
“I think AI is the new, new thing, and to some extent, from a economic perspective, the cursor dollars in software development or any other of these things aren't directly taking away from the SAS dollars. I think it's time expansion”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 52:46 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI labor replacement will be a steady 20-year trend, not explosive
“One of the reasons I'm pretty relaxed about any kind of, you know, all these mass unemployment stories, I think it's a long secular, 20 year trend that we can invest in. And I think you will see replacement of labor Buy AI on a pretty consistent basis, but not…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 54:43 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kansu: AI will completely transform product management within two years
“Honestly, now, probably in 12 to 24 months, the job of a PM will look entirely different. So I think we're talking about five years because that feels safe, but honestly, my guess now, or what I've changed my mind on is, it's going to be in two years, is my gu…”
Cem Kansu Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 1:12:34 20Product: How Duolingo Build Product 10x Faster with AI | Duolingo's Biggest Lessons on Paywalls, Push Notifications and In-App Purchases | Why Small Teams are the Future of Product | Why PMs Will Become Extinct with Cem Kansu, CPO @ Duolingo
Jun 20, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Kansu: Future software will dynamically generate user interfaces on the fly
“What hasn't emerged much is UI creation that is also AI first. So I think you'll see a lot of on the fly UI generation off of what you're doing instead of hard coded UI that comes into play.”
Cem Kansu Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 1:14:52 20Product: How Duolingo Build Product 10x Faster with AI | Duolingo's Biggest Lessons on Paywalls, Push Notifications and In-App Purchases | Why Small Teams are the Future of Product | Why PMs Will Become Extinct with Cem Kansu, CPO @ Duolingo
Jun 20, 2025 positive
Insight
Kansu: AI conversation features outperform human tutoring by eliminating user embarrassment
“AI is way better for this, because you can stumble, you can talk shitty Spanish, you're not embarrassed. A lot of users found it embarrassing to stumble when there's a human looking at them on video.”
Cem Kansu Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 1:06:26 20Product: How Duolingo Build Product 10x Faster with AI | Duolingo's Biggest Lessons on Paywalls, Push Notifications and In-App Purchases | Why Small Teams are the Future of Product | Why PMs Will Become Extinct with Cem Kansu, CPO @ Duolingo
Jun 23, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Reck: AI reduced GetYourGuide product onboarding from days to seconds
“On the supply side. The supply is completely transformed. It used to take, I think, days to upload a product because experiences are so complex. You know, you need to add a description and photos and like take a hundred boxes at the meeting point and, you know…”
Johannes Reck Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 1:20:15 GetYourGuide CEO & Founder, Johannes Reck: The Wild Story Raising $450M From Masa and Softbank · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 27, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Graves: AI will automate down-market, transactional selling motions
“I see AI taking on a lot of the transactional selling activities. And if you have a point solution, or if it's a small deal, I can see AI taking a lot of that down market selling motion.”
Kim Graves Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 49:20 20Sales: How to Layer Enterprise Sales on PLG | How to Sell AI Tools To Enterprises That Are Scared | Should Reps Own Their Own Pipeline | Mistakes All Founders Make When Moving From Founder-Led to Rep-Led Sales with Kim Graves
Jun 30, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: AI productivity gains will trigger a painful disruption phase
“It's too early to tell. I totally, I, well, I think it will. However, productivity gains, which will be extremely beneficiary to the world, don't mean that the challenges I just mentioned will be solved, because there will be this disruption phase where many, …”
Philipp Freise Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 53:06 KKR's Head of European PE, Philipp Freise: Do Andreessen & General Catalyst Scare KKR? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Freise: AI capital intensity prevents private fund sizes from halving
“I agree, and that is why we don't see fund sizes halving, because exactly of what you said, a lot of these opportunities are so capital intensive, because you suddenly have some interesting places to deploy.”
Philipp Freise Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 28:21 KKR's Head of European PE, Philipp Freise: Do Andreessen & General Catalyst Scare KKR? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2025 negative
Opinion
Freise: The European Union has severely over-regulated AI and stifled innovation
“We absolutely over-regulated that space. We need to unleash the power of that technology, technological innovation, and not stifle it by too much innovation for sure.”
Philipp Freise Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 46:07 KKR's Head of European PE, Philipp Freise: Do Andreessen & General Catalyst Scare KKR? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 3, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Global AI CapEx has reached $300B to $400B annually
“The amount of money we're investing in AI right now are 300 to four hundred billion dollars a year in capex.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 0:03 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 3, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: AI startups are inflating their revenue numbers
“Listen, I think that he's badass smart, but everyone's a little full of shit in AI and revenue, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 1:13:45 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 3, 2025 negative
Insight
Lemkin: Startups failing to grow through AI have already failed
“My rule is if you haven't grown because of AI, you've failed.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 10, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Non-AI tech workers will be phased out within four years
“Two, three, four years from now, you know, you, you're not going to have people who say I'm too busy to use AI. They're going to be long since God, right? You're going to have people who've been automated away, and then you're going to have people who be, who …”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 58:00 Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | Microsoft Layoff 9000 People | OpenAI's Bombshell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 10, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI will replace 30% to 40% of short-cycle sales reps
“My rough sense is it's 30 to 40% of, like, one to two call sales reps are gonna be replaced by AI. It won't be the same as with support, but it'll approach it. It'll be relatively small in the enterprise, ok?”
Jason Lemkin Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 53:35 Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | Microsoft Layoff 9000 People | OpenAI's Bombshell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 10, 2025 negative
Opinion
Stebbings: Public companies should fire employees who refuse to embrace AI
“I'm on the board of a public company and I got asked the other day, well, Harry, what do we do with employees who are not embracing it because they are fearful of it and don't want it? And I said, you fire them.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 56:06 Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | Microsoft Layoff 9000 People | OpenAI's Bombshell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2025 positive
Insight
Flanagan: Ask AI to write its own prompts for better results
“The number one tip I can just give anyone to get better at prompting is to ask the AI to create the prompt.”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 33:52 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Flanagan: Traditional management-focused CMOs will become obsolete
“Well, I think the CMO that is really fucked is the one who does people management and moves budget around, right? I think the future is really for super ICs. I think the CMO can actually do the craft. Use AI, ship things, understand how to do things because th…”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 56:17 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 11, 2025 bullish
Insight
Flanagan: AI enables economical marketing to micro-segments under 300 people
“And the reason we do segment-level marketing is because we need a broad enough group of people to go after to make it economically feasible for us to have a certain size of marketing team to market to you, right? We can't market to, like, Very, very fine. We c…”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 20:37 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flanagan: AI will empower generalist 'Super ICs' over narrow specialists
“What I see happening is we're going to go to a place where we're going to have a lot of like super ICs and generalists that are enabled with AI, but can do much, much more.”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 51:43 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 11, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Flanagan: HubSpot achieved 5x email conversion uplift using AI
“And if you had told me 12 months ago that we could use AI to like five X the conversion rate on email, cause I'm like, ah, look, there's only so much personalization you can do in an email.”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 18:26 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 11, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flanagan: AI will eliminate traditional GTM handovers across sales and support
“I think that is where we're going to go in the future and that you have a singular team looking across the entire go to market, whether that is the self-serve part, the sales led part, the customer success part, the customer support part. Because again, AI is …”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 8:27 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 17, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: $3.5B AI deals won't make top news within 24 months
“Three and a half billion may not mean anything in the next 24 months in AI. Like it may not make the above the fold news in AI.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 1:15:04 Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 21, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Edwin Chen: Single-person $1B companies will exist due to AI
“I mean, I absolutely believe that that company was this one day. Like you think about it, like I've always believed in 10 X engineers, even a hundred X engineers. And already you have a lot of these single person startups that are already doing ten million rev…”
Edwin Chen Jul 21, 2025 ▶ 7:46 Surge CEO & Co-Founder, Edwin Chen: Scaling to $1BN+ in Revenue with NO Funding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 21, 2025 positive
Insight
Edwin Chen: AI tools disproportionately benefit 10x engineers over average workers
“If you don't have to spend that time on the drudgery, but you just have like these endless ideas that are just bouncing around your head and AI just helps you put them to paper. Then I do think it kind of disproportionately favors people who are already like t…”
Edwin Chen Jul 21, 2025 ▶ 9:36 Surge CEO & Co-Founder, Edwin Chen: Scaling to $1BN+ in Revenue with NO Funding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Casado: A major AI-driven cyber attack is guaranteed to happen
“I still have yet to see the dramatic new attack. It's going to come for sure, but we haven't seen it yet.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 28:24 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: European AI market alone is large enough for major winners
“But I promise when it comes to AI, the European market is large enough. I promise that.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 21:57 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: Regulatory and cultural balkanization is driving regional AI winners
“We do have geographic biases showing up with AI and the regulatory environments are quite balkanized. You know, there's language and cultural biases that are also balkanized. And so we're actually seeing a lot of regional players show up.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 21:28 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 positive
Insight
Casado: AI will liberate scientific research by bridging cross-disciplinary literature
“And so in a way, I think AI has the ability to pull out of this mass craziness, this mass ineffectiveness, which a it's very good at telling you if you've done it before, right? You know, it's very good at that. It actually knows all the literature, knows all …”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 48:48 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 negative
Insight
Casado: Unlike Past Tech Cycles, AI Pioneers Are The Primary Fearmongers
“In the past, the people created the technology were kind of pro tech and the people that were like selling security solutions were like the fear mongers, right? So you'd have somebody create like the internet and they're like, this is safe and it's great for e…”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 28:56 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 positive
Insight
Casado: AI is eliminating routine middle-tier software development
“And so in many ways, I would say, you know, the AI is getting rid of the middle, right? Like, so very new computer science, like models, they don't know how to do just because nobody's done it before. And that's kind of pushing the state of the art. And then i…”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 46:02 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Casado: All Monetized AI Use Cases Currently Require A Human Handler
“One thing that's very unique about AI is that it actually requires today a human handler. I mean, they're just so unpredictable, you know, I mean, most of the use cases that we know, all the monetized use cases have a human on the other side of it, right?”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 51:19 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2025 bearish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Google failing at AI would destroy its search business
“Like I would argue for Google, if they misfired on AI, they wouldn't have search.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 1:01:50 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Stebbings: Benchmark has executed the best AI strategy of any VC firm
“I don't think any firm has played AI in the last 18 months as well as Benchmark have done, despite the team churn that they've had.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 5:10 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
An AI Bubble Popping in Equity Markets Is Inevitable
“This would be the ultimate anomaly if a bubble did not pop in AI, right? You look at past historic, incredible technological moments, right? You think of the railroad, you think of cars, you think of electricity, you think of steamboats, you think of the inter…”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:14:46 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 4, 2025 positive
Opinion
AI is already better at outbound sales than human representatives
“I don't know if completely replace it, but certainly I think outbound stuff, the AI is actually better at it than humans, in my opinion, because it'll also learn what works faster, right?”
Ron Gabrisko Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 54:50 20Sales: $0-$3.7BN: The Databricks CRO's Playbook to Build the Fastest GTM Engine in SaaS History | How Databricks Beat Snowflake | How To Build a Sales Org of 5,000 and Close $190M Deals with Ron Gabrisko
Aug 7, 2025 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Meta's strength stems from core ads, not AI
“This isn't a AI enabled success. This is, I have an awesome existing business, and it kicks off so much money that I'm allowed spend that money on building this great AI vision, and I can probably do that for as long as my existing business kicks off cash.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 55:32 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rory O'Driscoll predicts SMBs will adopt pre-packaged AI within two years
“So over the next couple of years, it may well be, as I say, for things like phone answering, simple order dispatch, that there'll be a whole, whole bunch of pre-canned, pre-baked, This is how it works, Mr. SMB. Just turn it on, and you too can sound like a big…”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 54:19 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2025 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Hyperscalers' AI spend is funded by core cash flow
“My big takeaway is not all the AI stuff is working for the hyperscalers. My big takeaway is all their existing businesses are working so well and kicking off so much cash that they can keep doing this for the next year, and they said they're going to keep doin…”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 55:56 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 11, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Mignot: Governments should support local AI as customers, not investors
“I do believe that having, you know, government entities or quasi government entities support local innovation is in that critical field is, is important. I think the way to do it is not necessarily to I think they should be customers. I think they should buy t…”
Martin Mignot Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 38:24 Index Ventures Partner, Martin Mignot: Figma, Scale, Wiz: Inside Index’s Decacorn Factory · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: AI will enable 20-to-40-person teams to build billion-dollar companies
“If you allow for some outsourcing agencies resources that come and go, I think we will see a bunch of 20, 30, 40 person, billion dollar companies because a core of engineers, a bunch of AIs making, and people are going to be like, you know what, dude, not, I d…”
Jason Lemkin Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 1:22:03 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI Scale Prevents Venture Capital From Returning to Old Model
“We're not going back. The AI is so much bigger than cloud and so different. And unless the LP is cut off the valve it's, We're not going back to the old venture.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 1:18:46 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: AI will devalue knowledge work just as fine art lost profitability
“I think we're going to have, like, Maybe a shift away from some very glamorous jobs, which people will be get depressed by, like similarly to how being like an artist was like so fucking cool, but clearly you can't make any money as an artist. I think we're go…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:11:16 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: General AI progress will plateau while bioengineering advances exponentially
“Yeah, we're going to see a plateauing. There's some sigmoid curves where I think we're still in this, like, exponential phase of the sigmoid curve, so it and those could be something like science and engineering, and like bioengineering, where AI is just going…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:04:34 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: AI will replace traditional, detailed manual software design workflows
“The way of doing it right now with the design, what like one person does all the design very slowly, very detailed is going to be replaced by AI doing, you talk much more high level, and you talk about your design philosophy, and then the AI does the implement…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 28:23 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: AI is already smarter than humans when given proper context
“I think AI is smarter than humans, and most people don't agree. I think most people don't agree, and the reason is that it's oftentimes it's very, very stupid, but that's very stupid, but if you give it all the context or you have, like, you build a purposeful…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:03:31 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 neutral
Insight
Osika: AI makes generalist skills far more important than deep specialized expertise
“Like, I think being a generalist becomes more and more important with everything, in everything with AI, so that you can understand how things come together as a larger whole, and then you use AI for the, like, deep expertise that you don't need in the future …”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 39:07 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI token and compute usage will 10x within 24 months
“I think we're all gonna live in AI, 24 seven, and we're all gonna use 10 times the tokens and 10 times the compute we are now in 24 months.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 1:06:58 Databricks at $100BN, CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker - Ep.19 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Deeter: AI Will Double Vertical SaaS TAM and Valuation Just Like Payments Did
“I think AI is going to do the same thing, that what it can do you know, with Service Titan, as they talk about automating the technician experience and the ability to go out there and have a co-pilot alongside of you.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 11:05 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Deeter: AI will mirror top scientists' reasoning within 18 months
“The curve is still up into the right, without a doubt, and I do believe that we will cross over this term. You know, people use you know various different terms about you know, levels of reasoning and awareness and AGI and the like. I have no doubt we're, if w…”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 30:10 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: AI Will Produce Multiple Trillion-Dollar Companies
“I think there's going to be a lot of trillion dollar businesses that are created from this.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 1:21:00 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Deeter: Bessemer is evaluating nuclear fusion investments accelerated by AI
“We're looking at, you know, fusion investments now that I think will be supported and accelerated by AI.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 22:13 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Public SaaS companies are re-accelerating growth through AI
“I'm glad to see that just literally this week, we were seeing Mongo even Okta, which had been struggling, Box last, the other day, Zoom, which is, you know, which is not exactly a rocket ship anywhere, but seeing growth re-accelerate because of AI, it's like, …”
Jason Lemkin Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 45:52 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Benioff: Near-term AI and AGI progress is mostly hype and hypnosis
“I think that we have all been sold a lot of, you know, hypnosis around what's about to happen with AI and not that it couldn't happen one day.”
Marc Benioff Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 1:50 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Market drastically overestimates timeline for AI to transform $100B companies
“Even if AI is amazing, I think some of these people who think it's going to transform hundred billion dollar market caps in a week are just way overestimating what it takes.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 15:19 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 1, 2025 negative
Opinion
Frosst: Claims of AI Posing an Imminent Existential Threat Are Incorrect
“The idea that, oh, this technology is like poses an imminent existential threat to humanity writ large was not a, was incorrect.”
Nick Frosst Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 24:02 Cohere Founder, Nick Frosst: How To Compete with OpenAI & Anthropic, and Sam Altman’s AI Disservice · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 1, 2025 negative
Opinion
Frosst: Sam Altman warning leaders about AI threat was disingenuous
“He did a world tour where he spoke to every major leader the world over to tell them, hey, this technology is gonna pose an existential threat. And I think that was academically disingenuous, and I think did a disservice to the technology he loves.”
Nick Frosst Sep 1, 2025 ▶ 0:13 Cohere Founder, Nick Frosst: How To Compete with OpenAI & Anthropic, and Sam Altman’s AI Disservice · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Obrecht: AI drove only 20% of Canva's recent growth reacceleration
“I would probably say 20%.”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 25:11 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 5, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Alex Schultz: Creative spark will be the last trait AI automates
“The creative spark is probably the last thing that gets automated.”
Alex Schultz Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 34:24 20Growth: Meta CMO Alex Schultz on How All Founders Have to Change Their Marketing Playbook in a World of AI | Is AI Plateauing, What it Means if China Wins the AI Race and Why Zuck is a Generational Leader
Sep 5, 2025 neutral
Insight
Alex Schultz: Humans using AI will replace workers, not AI itself
“Unless things get really weird, you're not going to be replaced by AI, you're going to be replaced by someone doing your job using AI.”
Alex Schultz Sep 5, 2025 ▶ 36:49 20Growth: Meta CMO Alex Schultz on How All Founders Have to Change Their Marketing Playbook in a World of AI | Is AI Plateauing, What it Means if China Wins the AI Race and Why Zuck is a Generational Leader
Sep 11, 2025 bearish
Insight
Lawson: Buyers Want AI Replacing 75% of Staff, Not Co-Pilots
“Oh, we're going to make your human beings 10% more efficient because of the AI co-pilot. When reality is they're gonna want a product that is like, no, no, no, I don't need 75% of these people anymore. Give me that product.”
Jeff Lawson Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 0:24 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: European AI investment is driven by sovereignty, not market efficiency
“The Europeans make a whole load of defense equipment that they have no business making from an economies of scale perspective. They simply do it because they're like, they don't want to rely on the Americans. And this is the AI version of that.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 54:21 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Lawson: AI will decimate SaaS seat bases and human workflow roles
“The thing I would say though about any company in SAS today, and Atlassian is a Prime example of this is they are primed for, ah, disruption right now because AI is going to decimate their seat base for their products. It'll decimate the roles people are playi…”
Jeff Lawson Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 59:19 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Public SaaS growing over 30% should aggressively acquire AI startups
“If you're doing 30% plus, you can be aggressive and you should be aggressive and buy shit as a public SaaS company. What you're saying is if you're doing 10% You can't be aggressive because you've got to fix the growth story... Even though you probably should …”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 1:06:44 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Customer support is the number one application-level AI use case
“Other than coding, which is the InfraPlay, at the app level, I think customer support, customer success is the number one use case for AI, because it's just so obvious. You have lots of people answering phone calls, answering emails. You can do it all with AI.…”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 27:01 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 12, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Bendov: Increased AI efficiency will decrease overall sales headcount needs
“Salespeople are required, there'll be fewer sellers, I'm pretty sure”
Amit Bendov Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 19:14 20VC: Why AI SDRs are BS and Do Not Work | How to Use AI in Your Sales Team and Process to Win Today | What Skills Do All New Reps Need to Have in an AI First World with Amit Bendov, CEO @ Gong
Sep 12, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bendov: 75% of sales compensation pays for non-selling administrative work
“You're paying three out of four dollars you're paying them is to do uninteresting work that can be decimated with AI, and the salespeople would be willing to pay out of their own pocket for this because they hate it.”
Amit Bendov Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 17:54 20VC: Why AI SDRs are BS and Do Not Work | How to Use AI in Your Sales Team and Process to Win Today | What Skills Do All New Reps Need to Have in an AI First World with Amit Bendov, CEO @ Gong
Sep 15, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Believing AI superintelligence will arrive in three years is totally wrong
“That we'll have super intelligence in three years. That's better than humans at everything. I think it's totally wrong.”
Brendan Foody Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 55:25 Mercor CEO & Co-Founder, Brendan Foody: How They Grew from $1M to $500M in 17 Months · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 15, 2025 bullish
Opinion
The current AI market cycle resembles 1996 or 1997, not a bubble
“And don't get me wrong, I'm still, like, incredibly bullish on the market and AI. I think we're much more at, like, 96 or 97”
Brendan Foody Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 53:24 Mercor CEO & Co-Founder, Brendan Foody: How They Grew from $1M to $500M in 17 Months · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Tech companies will employ more software engineers in five years, not fewer
“I think more. And the reason is that engineering is such an elastic role, right? Where if we could build a hundred times more software or say we make engineers 10 times more efficient, We would probably build a hundred times more software, right? And so far as…”
Brendan Foody Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 40:40 Mercor CEO & Co-Founder, Brendan Foody: How They Grew from $1M to $500M in 17 Months · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nejatian: AI has solved automated home pricing without physical inspections
“I think three years ago, this was an incredibly difficult problem that required human beings to visit homes and look around and look at the shape of the cart. Like, that's the real thing. If you're one side of the street that has a slope, the other side doesn'…”
Kaz Nejatian Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 12:31 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zhang: Approximately 50% of Decagon's new code is AI generated
“Yeah, roughly there. The lines get blurred because oftentimes what will happen is like, hey, I'm sitting down to do this project. Let me just have the agent Take a stab at it first, and then you go in and like edit things and move things around. So there's a b…”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 31:07 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Sep 19, 2025 positive
Opinion
Zhang: Customer experience is one of few AI markets with PMF
“It's, in my opinion, one of the few markets right now that has true PMF with AI.”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 20:25 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Sep 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Zhang: Narrative that AI will transform every use case is overhyped
“The fact that there's this narrative that AI is just going to transform every single use case. I think what we've seen is that most use cases have not been transformed by AI, especially if you think about enterprise use cases and things like that, is that, yea…”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 51:10 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: AI and robotics will eventually replace all human labor
“Over time is going to be most of it. And when robotics comes, it'll be all of it.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 47:35 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025
Insight
Taneja: Enterprise AI transformation requires four key operational elements
“When you think about transforming an enterprise with AI, you actually have to do four things correctly. Okay. First is you have to get your data infrastructure ready so that your technology, your company can adopt AI. Your data readiness is huge. Infrastructur…”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 14:35 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025
Insight
Taneja: Teach children to ask questions, not solve problems, in AI era
“Teach them to be unique, and in the world of AI, teach them to ask questions, not solve problems.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:36:20 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taneja: AI is first technology wave where every global CEO is adopting
“For the first time, every CEO in every industry in every country is thinking about what do I do with this technology? Never happened before. Cloud wasn't like that. Certainly PCs weren't like that. Internet wasn't like that.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 54:11 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2045
Taneja: General Catalyst expects to invest $300B-$500B over 20 years
“Over the next 20 years, if I look at GC, we'll probably invest, what, 300,000,000,500 billion dollars into the world sort of helping shape what AI does for society.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:36:56 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: Lightspeed's broad AI indexing strategy will work out really well
“Our friends at Lightspeed did a great job in AI, for example. I think it's gonna work out really well for them.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:22:12 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: AI adoption will materially impact jobs within five years
“I would say this is a five year problem. And I say that because if you go back and think about the physics With which these companies are getting built, the companies we're building, you have to put these teams together and they have to go get some customers t…”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 16:47 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025
Insight
Taneja: Scaling AI requires getting energy infrastructure right
“The race in AI, the thing that I'm very focused on learning about, and we're early in our thinking is, in order to get AI right, you have to get energy right.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:15:02 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 negative
Opinion
Taneja: Governments are unprepared for impending AI labor disruption
“I think not enough. I don't think, I think people are still grappling with What does AI really mean? What is, how fast is it going to diffuse? They're not even thinking enough about reskilling.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 18:15 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gibson: Revolut's top product priority will be integrating AI
“I think first and foremost, it will be bringing AI into the products that we're building. And I don't know about you, but I haven't seen, you know, tons of examples of that across the industry yet. I think we're really just at the start.”
James Gibson Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 39:35 20Product: Revolut Business $1BN Revenue: Five of the Biggest Product Lessons | How Revolut Structures Product and Design Teams | How Revolut Experiments and Invests in New Product Bets | How Revolut Ships Product So Fast with James Gibson
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Jonathan Ross: AI will cause massive labor shortages, not mass unemployment
“I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. Yeah, I don't think we're gonna have enough people to fill all the jobs that are gonna be created.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 48:39 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Ross: Japan allocated $65 billion toward AI initiatives
“They've allocated sixty five billion dollars for AI.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 38:28 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025
Insight
Ross: AI product quality scales directly with compute spent per query
“AI doesn't work the way SAS does. In SAS, you have a bunch of engineers who go out and build a product, and the quality of that product is determined based on what those engineers did. That's not the case in AI. In AI, I can improve the quality of my product b…”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 27:04 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Ross: AI deflation will lead to earlier retirement and shorter workweeks
“And what that means is people will need to work less. And that's gonna lead you to number two, which is people are gonna opt out of the economy more. They're gonna work fewer hours, they're gonna work fewer days a week, and they're gonna work fewer years. They…”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 49:32 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025
Insight
Ross: Countries controlling compute will control AI
“The countries that control compute will control AI, and you cannot have compute without energy.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 40:31 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Opinion
Ross: Trump Administration Policies Are Definitely Helping Advance US AI
“Definitely help. All of the moves that have been made are things that are going to help with AI. For example you know, the permitting issues, right? Overall, it's been a very positive experience on AI.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 51:39 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Massive AI productivity gains require reorganizing workflows around AI
“If you use OpenAI in various of their competitors, the way you use Google, you'll see a very modest jump. In productivity. If you use them in a fundamentally different way, that was Sam's point, you'll see a huge jump. And if we use, if we reorganize ourselves…”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 29:55 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: AI will surpass human entry-level workers at spreadsheets and research summaries
“I think what it means to be entry level in a company will change a great deal because what entry level has generally meant in consulting firms and at investment banks has been doing shit work in particular being really good at spreadsheets and writing summarie…”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 1:15:26 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Younger users treat AI as an operating system for life
“Younger users are using it in a different way than older users. Older users are replacing something they already had. Younger users are using it in a way that never existed before as an operating system for life.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 30:34 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: AI adoption will diffuse slowly rather than causing immediate labor disruption
“Economic dislocation. Isn't resolved in very short periods of time. That might be true in 15 years. But I think in the three to five year time frame I certainly don't believe that will be the case. I think AI will the adoption of AI or the diffusion of AI into…”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 1:12:15 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Feldman: Global economy will reorganize around AI within five years
“However is it possible that our economy looks very different? In five years. Is it possible that, ah, the things we value, ah, are very different? That we have reorganized around AI. We've seen a major bump in, in labor productivity. We have benefited dramatic…”
Andrew Feldman Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 10:18 Cerebras CEO, Andrew Feldman on Why Raise $1BN and Delay the IPO & Why NVIDIA’s Worried About Growth · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 10, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Degnan: AI will replace telemarketers and call centers, but not field sales teams
“I think there will be like telemarketers, like that will get replaced, you know, for sure. You know, like when, if I'm getting a call from my cable provider on upselling me on a new, you know, wireless plan or something like that. I think that those types of t…”
Chris Degnan Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 55:24 20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan
Oct 13, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cannon-Brookes: AI interfaces will evolve far beyond simple chat boxes
“I don't believe the world will just end up as a chat box. Otherwise, we'd all just use the terminal on our computers, but it is an entry point, and so there's a lot of foundational design being done, really fascinating, good design all over the place.”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 20:05 Atlassian CEO, Mike Cannon-Brookes on Why Everything is Overvalued & Are We in an AI Bubble · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 13, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cannon-Brookes: AI Software Will Not Dynamically Regenerate Every Screen Interface
“In theory, AI can generate some code, write the code to create a new interface for every single screen you look at, right? I don't think we'll probably see that. It'll be too discombobulating for users. They'll get lost. They'll be like, wait, everything's mov…”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 24:10 Atlassian CEO, Mike Cannon-Brookes on Why Everything is Overvalued & Are We in an AI Bubble · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 13, 2025 negative
Insight
Cannon-Brookes: Enterprise AI deployment will take longer than expected
“The speed with which AI can be understood and deployed successfully by companies, customers, is something that is going to take a lot longer to really play through. Because the delta between magical demos and actual value delivered is quite high in a lot of ca…”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 58:41 Atlassian CEO, Mike Cannon-Brookes on Why Everything is Overvalued & Are We in an AI Bubble · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 16, 2025 bullish
Insight
Ehrenberg: Regulatory and IP Complexity Protects Startups From AI Disruption
“But I do think that the issues of Legal and regulatory complexity. And again, whether, whether it's financial infrastructure or it's media rights, copyright, patent, IP, it makes it more nuanced than am I able to develop the next base model or a great platform…”
Roger Ehrenberg Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 44:28 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Stebbings: Productive capital will not leave AI for three years
“Like we will not have productive capital leave AI and data centers for more than three years. And so everyone that's like, oh, we're in an AI bubble, we're in an AI bubble and it's going to bust. I don't think so, because if we're in a bubble and you're antici…”
Harry Stebbings Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 57:05 Why VC Today is Worse than 2021 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cahn: AI is one of the largest drivers of US GDP growth
“AI is now one of the biggest contributors to GDP growth in the United States”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 2:40 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cahn: People will talk to and form relationships with AI within 10 years
“I think the idea that we're going to be sitting here in 10 years talking to our AI, having a relationship with our AI, I think that's very likely, and I think it's a little bit sci-fi right now and I think it's going to get less so in the coming years.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 1:11:49 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Cahn: Defense technology is the next AI-scale investment opportunity
“I would say, and I think this ties into our conversation so far, that AI, that defense is the next AI.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 58:52 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 positive
Insight
Cahn: Generative AI breaks traditional recursive career algorithms
“The recursive algorithm of, like, what did the guy a year above me and the person a year above me do is actually breaking because those people didn't have this information. They didn't know that AI was going to change the world. They didn't understand gen AI.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 55:14 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Cahn: Voice as an interface for AI is wildly underestimated
“I think that people are underestimating voice as an interface for AI.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 1:10:45 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Cahn: Over 80% of AI venture capital goes to compute producers
“And I think probably 80% plus of the dollars in AI are still going to producers of compute. Not consumers of compute.”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 19:49 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cahn: AI will disrupt at least 5% of global GDP ($9T+)
“I actually agree with him fundamentally that AI is going to affect five percent of GDP. Probably where I disagree with Massa, so I think he used the nine trillion dollars. I think that's the number he used. It's going to Disrupt nine trillion of GDP. And then …”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 30:24 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Joelle Pineau: Blaming AI and platforms for mental illness is an oversimplification
“I think the, we have to be careful about taking shortcuts and saying, you know, because suddenly, you know, we have certain platforms, we have AI, and so on, that is causing that mental illness.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 54:38 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Pineau: Replacing portions of enterprise workforces with AI is unrealistic
“So to just like flat out replace a portion of your workforce is actually Pretty unrealistic.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 15:51 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 positive
Opinion
Pineau: Mark Zuckerberg dives incredibly deep into AI technical details
“He is incredibly deep into understanding the work. Like, he does not coast, you know. When he started getting into AI, just the depth of the question that he'd ask, he just gets really interested in the topic and goes super deep, and that then just informs eve…”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 55:16 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pineau: Human-AI interaction will expand to voice, gesture, and eye gaze
“It's awfully limited, and, you know, prompts can mean a few different things, but the idea of, like, typing in a box, that to me is very limited, and we're gonna break out of that box already. We're seeing a lot of cases where voice is a lot more natural as an…”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 42:12 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pineau predicts AI will enable 10x employee productivity within two years
“Oh, I don't think that's unrealistic at all.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 16:09 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pineau: The AI capital bubble will see massive upswings and downswings
“I think about it as a bubble with bigger variants. It's like, you know, the upswing is going to be bigger, and you know, there's going to be big downswings as well, and so there's a lot of variants into the system right now.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 46:15 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pineau: Language will remain the primary paradigm for human-AI interaction
“But language is incredibly powerful. So if you think of prompt as being more language as a way to express ideas and communicate with a machine, that's a powerful paradigm. I mean, as humans, we, so much of our communication is based on language. I don't think …”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 42:41 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025
Insight
Pineau: Simple data labeling is obsolete as AI requires complex tasks
“The days of like having data labelers who can say this is a cat and this is a dog or somewhat over like the easy test the AI can do. So we're getting in a space where we need more specialized tasks.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 33:06 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Pineau: Users treat AI as a work tool rather than a companion
“I see a lot of people using it as a tool, more than as a companion. You know, people have this, you know, Swiss knife in their work life all of a sudden that can be super helpful, but that's really most of what I see.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 19:58 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Pineau: AI is starting to be useful, but trails public perception
“We're at a stage where AI is really starting to be useful, maybe not as useful as people think it is, but we are there.”
Joelle Pineau Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 13:48 Cohere's Chief AI Officer, Joelle Pineau: Why Scaling Laws Will Continue & Future of Synthetic Data · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2025
Insight
Lemkin: Fire half your team if AI hasn't reaccelerated growth
“If you haven't gotten a boost this year from AI, fire half your team right before the holidays, give them a turkey and three months of severance, but they failed. You have a, your team is not good enough. They had 18 months to ship a product that mattered in t…”
Jason Lemkin Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 58:06 Is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC? & Harvey Raises $150M & Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 10, 2025 bullish
Insight
Randle: AI expands software market sizes by replacing human labor budgets
“A lot of what AI has been able to do, especially if it can touch something that a labor force within a category was doing before, we're seeing much, much bigger markets.”
Everett Randle Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 18:27 Benchmark's GP, Everett Randle on Why Mega Funds Will Not Produce Good Returns · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 10, 2025
Insight
Randle: The sources of moats have not changed from SaaS to AI
“I don't think the sources of moats have changed from SaaS to AI necessarily. Like, the seven powers are still the seven powers. All the same ways to build differentiation are there.”
Everett Randle Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 30:22 Benchmark's GP, Everett Randle on Why Mega Funds Will Not Produce Good Returns · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 14, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rivera: AI sector is in a bubble and faces impending corrections
“AI is also in a hype cycle, and we are in something that is and feels a little bit like an AI bubble. And just like .com is bigger today than it was, you know, during the .com bubble, it didn't mean that we wouldn't have a crash or correction along the way. In…”
Carl Rivera Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 1:00:19 20Product: How AI Changes Product Design | Does the Design Phase Become Irrelevant in a World of Vibe Coding | The Five Pillars of Truly Great Product Design with Carl Rivera, Chief Design Officer at Shopify
Nov 14, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rivera: AI will bifurcate software into low-tier flood vs magical products
“AI will multiply the amount of products that exist, and as part of that, there will be more shit products. AI will also give superpowers to companies with greater ambitions, with the interest and appetite to dial in outstanding experiences and create better pr…”
Carl Rivera Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 23:51 20Product: How AI Changes Product Design | Does the Design Phase Become Irrelevant in a World of Vibe Coding | The Five Pillars of Truly Great Product Design with Carl Rivera, Chief Design Officer at Shopify
Nov 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Rivera: AI favors incumbents over startups due to distribution and data
“Because I believe that distribution matters a great deal. We're all building on largely the same models. The areas where you actually can have like true network effects is access to unavailable data or consumer network effects. Both of these typically sit insi…”
Carl Rivera Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 26:06 20Product: How AI Changes Product Design | Does the Design Phase Become Irrelevant in a World of Vibe Coding | The Five Pillars of Truly Great Product Design with Carl Rivera, Chief Design Officer at Shopify
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Andrew Ng: Advising people not to learn coding is terrible career advice
“Even earlier this year, we saw some senior business leaders advise people to not learn to code on the grounds that AI will automate it. We'll look back on that as some of the worst career advice ever given.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 46:28 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andrew Ng: AI will make intelligence cheap and boost GDP growth
“I hope we can get much closer to five, six or more percent GDP growth. When looking at the future, it turns out one of the most expensive things in today's world is intelligence. This is why it's so expensive, at least in the US, to hire a highly skilled docto…”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 19:48 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025
Insight
Andrew Ng: AI requires existing workers to reskill, unlike past technological shifts
“The change is so fast this time round that we need people that are alive today to learn new skills, as opposed to we need their kids to learn new skills, and that's actually very challenging, and historically I don't think we've ever been good at that.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 1:02:33 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andrew Ng: Writing code by hand is becoming obsolete due to AI
“Writing code by hand is becoming obsolete, right? Oh, really don't do that. Not, but they get AI to write code for you.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 47:11 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Andrew Ng refuses to hire experienced engineers who ignore AI tools
“Those people, I just don't hire people like that anymore, but there are people that, you know, did a comfortable job, they kept coding the old way, and they just did not learn AI.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 16:30 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 positive
Insight
Andrew Ng: AI creates value by accelerating workflows and expanding scale
“So instead of cost savings, if AI lets you do something way faster, or lets you take a task and do it a thousand times more, instead of serving a small number of people, let's serve a lot more people because it's not economic to do so. These are the two patter…”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 50:53 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Insight
Andrew Ng: AGI is hyped PR, AI will improve continuously for decades
“I feel like because of PR goals, AGI has been hyped up as a finish line, but I don't think it's a finish line. It's just, we'll have continually improving capabilities for, you know, decades to come.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 26:08 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Andrew Ng: Data is not the primary bottleneck in AI today
“I think it's definitely not data. Not that data is not important, but that's definitely not the bottleneck.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 42:29 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andrew Ng: Businesses face a massive shortage of AI-fluent college graduates
“The fresh college grads know AI. We can't find enough of them. So many businesses would love to hire those fresh college grads.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 17:44 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Andrew Ng: Claims that AI could cause human extinction are ridiculous
“There are a lot of hyped up AI safety narratives saying AI could lead to human extinction, which is kind of ridiculous statement.”
Andrew Ng Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 7:59 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rory O'Driscoll: Non-AI pre-2022 unicorns will likely never go public
“And the scary thing, going back to linking it to the AI thing, is with every year that goes by, the probability is that the next crop of IPOs will be AI first companies from 2022, or pre-AI, pre-twenty-two companies that have clawed their way into AI land. And…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 1:24:20 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 28, 2025 positive
Insight
McMahon: Sales playbooks remain essential in the era of AI
“It should. It should still hold true, no different than, like, I think about a sports team. Sports team has a playbook, and the players have to know the playbook, so they have to have the knowledge, and then they have to have the skill set to execute the play,…”
John McMahon Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 5:20 20Sales: John McMahon on How to Hire, Train & Retain the Best Sales Reps | How Sales Changes in a World of AI | Sales Lessons from Snowflake and MongoDB | How to Create and Drive a Sales Process with Urgency
Dec 4, 2025 positive
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI Marshals Complex Domain Knowledge Better Than Humans
“There's a whole bunch of this knowable, but nonetheless complex information that has to be assembled and marshaled. And at the right time, the person who has the question should have to get the right answer. That question can be what form of cancer is this bas…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 1:05:55 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
O'Driscoll: AI Startups Must Shift to Value Pricing Within Two Years
“A year, two years from now, you're going to have to link as a startup. Your pricing to the value delivered and you're going to have to measure.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 37:52 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 5, 2025 positive
Insight
Simionato: AI accelerates prototyping, but core product prioritization remains essential
“I think with AI you can build prototypes faster and so that allows you to test easily, which is something you couldn't do in the past, but the underlying principle of you need to focus on what matters is still very true today.”
Federico Simionato Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 7:17 20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato
Dec 5, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neuralink will transform the world more than AI over 50 years
“I think Neuralink is the product, like the thing that can change the world the most in 50 years, including AI, in my opinion. So I know people love AI, I love AI, I use it every day, but I think that ultimately the way you perceive reality and the way it chang…”
Federico Simionato Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 1:02:41 20VC: Inside Bending Spoons Acquisition Machine: Evernote, Eventbrite, Vimeo | How Evernote Evaluates Acquisitions and New Product Ideas | How Evernote Mastered Product Launches, User Retention and Monetisation with Federico Simionato
Dec 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Fintech valuation multiples are more bounded than AI multiples
“Fintech multiples tend to be significantly more bounded than open-ended AI multiples.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 1:18:15 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 12, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The total number of engineers will increase over the next 10 years
“More. I just think the definition of, like, what is an engineer even will broaden, but I think we, if an engineer is somebody who builds things, and I would kind of argue that that's the beauty of engineering. That's what I love in engineering. I think that is…”
Raz Herzberg Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 1:03:12 20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg
Dec 15, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Radiologist jobs increased despite AI outperforming humans at reading scans
“Like AI has been able to do a better job than human radiologists. Like prior to this whole wave, like neural nets were able to do a better job than human radiologists and looking at scans. And yet since the, you know, this sort of proliferation of AI, the numb…”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 1:00:56 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Autonomous driving and robotics will be the largest markets created by AI
“Like I think autonomous driving and robotics are maybe the mother of all, you know, markets that are coming on AI.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 55:29 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
C.H. Robinson saw a 40% AI-driven productivity gain in shipments
“They just disclosed in their last earnings that they saw a 40% productivity increased, increase measured in shipments per person per day in their core business since the end of 2022. 40% increase. It's an incredible and it's AI driven. And so what's actually h…”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 28:25 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Public markets assume legacy SaaS companies are doomed by AI
“In the public markets today, you are guilty until proven innocent. It's the full flip side of our criminal justice system where you are assumed that you are doomed by AI unless proven otherwise.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 29:51 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robotics will become the largest category in artificial intelligence within 10 years
“You know, we have not made a large investment in robotics, but I think it's going to be the largest category in AI, B to C, B to B. You know, there's still kind of debate on what the right form factors are. Whether it's at home help, whether it's industrial, l…”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 1:10:56 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Tech will face AI backlash as CEOs blame it for layoffs
“I think actually we could end up in the weird quadrant of it's not as impactful in the short term as we think, but because we've confessed to the crime, we're going to take the heat when generalize, because every, every CEO, as you pointed out earlier, can go,…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 1:12:10 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Official AI job loss statistics will spark widespread panic by 2026
“I think this will accelerate it when there's hard numbers at the top of the New York times and the wall street journal, assuming we still read anything at the end of next year. I think it will become every dinner table conversation for real.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 1:11:09 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025
Insight
O'Driscoll: Bundling AI without raising prices reduces software operating margins by 10%
“Because if all that happens is, you take your same revenue line, you bundle in a whole bunch of AI, you don't expand your revenue, congratulations, you've reduced your operating margins by 10%.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 51:47 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 31, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Fitzpatrick: Databricks is the most useful foundation for AI
“Look, I think their tech is great. And I think that it's interesting in a lot of ways, the most useful foundation for AI is really good Databricks infrastructure.”
Matt Fitzpatrick Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 1:17:34 Matt Fitzpatrick: Who Wins the Data Labelling Race & Why Al Needs Forward-Deployed Engineers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: People will carry AI 24/7 once they believe it is alive
“When most people believe their AIs are alive, you will take it with you, 24 seven.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 0:36 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026 bullish
Insight
Lemkin: Venture investors must seek out spite to back winning AI startups
“Like, I think if you want to make money in venture, you gotta search out Spite. This is driving the greatest AI companies of our generation is Spite.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 31:30 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 9, 2026 positive
Opinion
Peet: Elon Musk is history's greatest entrepreneur in tech's most important space
“You have an opportunity to work for and partner with the greatest entrepreneur I would say ever in what is probably the most important technology space ever.”
Chad Peets Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 9:50 20Sales: Why the Best Sales People are F**** in the Head | Why Remote Work is BS | Why Europe is a Nightmare for Recruiting Sales Teams | How to Build a Sales Machine | What Everyone Gets Wrong Today in Sales with Chad Peets
Jan 9, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peet: AI will eliminate or drastically reduce SDR and BDR roles in 5 years
“A hundred percent. I think SDRs and BDRs are five years gone because I think AI replaces them. I think that's the one function that to me is most obvious. I don't think we're there yet, but yes, I think it, does it completely go away? I don't know, but it gets…”
Chad Peets Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 56:32 20Sales: Why the Best Sales People are F**** in the Head | Why Remote Work is BS | Why Europe is a Nightmare for Recruiting Sales Teams | How to Build a Sales Machine | What Everyone Gets Wrong Today in Sales with Chad Peets
Jan 12, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: Wealth management will be the financial sector least disrupted by AI
“I actually gave a, I gave a talk to the exec team at JP Morgan about this, right? They're like, you know, what part of our business is going to be, you know, least touched by AI? And I said, you know, wealth management, right? Because what is wealth management…”
Alex Rampell Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 1:07:44 Alex Rampell: The Best Founders Materialise Capital, Customers & Labour | The Future of Venture · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 12, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Rampell: Workday and NetSuite are impervious to AI disruption
“There are the ones that are almost impervious to everything that's happening with AI. And if anything, it's a huge tailwind because they're going to start being, they have the distribution, they're going to start adding features. And that's things like Workday…”
Alex Rampell Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 1:04:39 Alex Rampell: The Best Founders Materialise Capital, Customers & Labour | The Future of Venture · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 12, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AI could drive Zendesk's seat-based revenue down to zero
“On the other side, you have things like Zendesk, right? Where it's like, how many licenses per seat do you need of Zendesk? If now every customer support ticket can be answered automatically, you need zero license. Like their revenue could go down a hundred pe…”
Alex Rampell Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 1:04:55 Alex Rampell: The Best Founders Materialise Capital, Customers & Labour | The Future of Venture · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI startups face existential disruption every six months
“In fast land, you could compound for seven or eight years. Now there's existential risk every six months. And if you can't live with that, you probably need to find a different job.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 13:00 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 16, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: AI will cause short-term economic pain before driving widespread abundance
“I think we're going to definitely go through a painful period. Wealth inequality in the US is something that I really am concerned, concerned about because it's higher than it's ever been, higher than the Gilded Age, and, ah, that has a lot of very potentially…”
Noam Lovinsky Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 34:12 20Product: Is the Design Phase Dead in a World of AI | Has Claude Code Crushed Anthropic Already | What Roles of a PM Are Less and More Important with AI | How the Best Product Leaders Tell Stories with Noam Lovinsky, CPO @ Superhuman
Jan 19, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Weinberg: AI won't replace junior lawyers, law firms will do more work
“I don't think so. I think we'll just get more work.”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 40:08 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 19, 2026 negative
Insight
Weinberg: In chaotic markets like AI, VCs rely on resumes over judgment
“When there are situations of chaos and folks don't know what's going on, the safest thing is to go look at other social signals to make decisions instead of using your own gut. And so I think that that's happening a lot in AI, and hopefully, you know, as the m…”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 51:38 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Junestrand: Private equity will drive massive law firm consolidation
“So I think law firms will go through a quite significant consolidation period, because so far there hasn't been a lot of incentives to consolidate law firms, but now actually private equity wants to get in on the action. They want to fund different law firms w…”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 53:02 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Junestrand: AI will complete end-to-end legal tasks within 2 years
“Well, I think it's within that time frame that AI gets Pretty good at completing end-to-end tasks very deterministically within our vertical.”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 58:14 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Junestrand: Mid-sized law firms will struggle while big and small law thrive
“I think big law will do really well because they have a lot of moats and a lot of brand and a lot of data. I think small law can do really well because that's still operating on a very, very personal basis. I think where it might get difficult is mid law, wher…”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 56:53 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: AI will drive major labor displacement in 12 to 24 months
“I think we're going to see more labor displacement than I think people expect, and I think we're going to see that in the next 12 to 24 months.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 57:55 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zeev: Navan faces zero risk of AI disruption and will benefit hugely
“Now, specifically with Navan, which a company I know well, I'm a hundred percent convinced that there's zero chance that we get disrupted by AI, and there is a hundred percent chance that we're huge beneficiaries of AI.”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 6:25 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 2, 2026 bearish
Insight
Zeev: Pass on AI-neutral companies, only invest in AI beneficiaries
“The one thing maybe you could argue that change, I don't know if it's 24 months or 36 months, is that every investment I have to ask myself, is this company a likely beneficiary of AI or not? The answer is not. Well, if the answer is that they're a victim of A…”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 4:17 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Zeev: Navan's gross margins were around 50% before AI adoption
“Gross margins you know, three years ago before AI, our gross margins were around 50%. It was all the cost of support.”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 6:45 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 2, 2026 neutral
Insight
Zeev: AI does not change compounding startup growth math
“Because the math doesn't change. If you have if you have a company that can double every year for the next five years, it's gonna be 32 X what it is today, because two to the power of five was 32 before AI and after AI. That has not changed.”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 12:04 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 2, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Zeev: AI is the biggest change in human history
“Listen, AI is the biggest change ever in the history of humanity.”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 1:13:13 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zeev: Almost all customer support at Navan will be handled by AI
“And ultimately I believe that If not all the, almost, almost all the support is going to be done by AI.”
Oren Zeev Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 7:11 Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
Feb 9, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Acharya: Execution and expertise are no longer constraints in the AI era
“Because I don't think execution or expertise is any longer a constraint.”
Anish Acharya Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 55:28 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Cannon-Brookes: Public software firms neglecting AI R&D are in trouble
“I would argue if you're a public company today and you're not spending a lot of money on fundamental kind of new R&D around AI and your product category, you're probably in trouble.”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:10:13 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 negative
Opinion
Siemiatkowski: VCs are piling money into AI technology they don't understand
“I think that the challenge right now is a lot of them are piling money into AI that they don't necessarily fully understand.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 53:25 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 neutral
Insight
Siemiatkowski: AI Customer Service Will Become the Ubiquitous Baseline Option
“If AI can do customer service, it means it's going to be the cheap customer service. It's going to be the one that everyone gets. Because it's cheap and simple.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 15:05 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siemiatkowski: AI will trigger a massive compression in enterprise data
“So in enterprise, you're going to see this dramatic squeeze and compression.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 1:04:04 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siemiatkowski: AI enterprise compression could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA chips
“Well, that would mean that you would leave mean significant, you would need significantly less.”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 1:05:11 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siemiatkowski: Future AI will stitch components rather than write raw code
“They will become more and more standardized building blocks. And I'm, I think in the future, I'm not sure AI was even going to code that much. It's just going to pick some pieces together and stitch them together to come to what you really need, which also act…”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 5:43 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: 80% of accounting software value is independent of AI
“I believe the next generation of accounting software companies, we've looked at them. They're super interesting. They're adding AI, but fundamentally, 80% of the value in an accounting software package is independent of AI. It's just, it's debits and credits a…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 37:20 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Shopify's Core Infrastructure Safe From Near-Term AI Displacement
“I don't think there is a credible near-end story that replaces a shopping, a website for shopping, and a payments mechanism, which is, you know, 60, 70% of their business, with some kind of AI arm wave in a way that there is for many of the workflow automation…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 21:43 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 15:03 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emberikos: AI will eventually assist humans tens of thousands of times daily
“I think AI should be helping us tens of thousands of times per day. You know, compute budget permitting, well, and we'll get there over time.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 6:51 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Emberikos: The vast majority of OpenAI code is now written by AI
“I don't have a percentage stat for you, but I would say, like, the vast majority of code is written by AI, and I would say that now, probably, like, most people are not even, like, opening IDEs. Maybe if they are opening IDEs to, like, maybe you want to own th…”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 18:51 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2026 negative
Insight
Emberikos: Top-down enterprise AI deployment massively under-leverages AI potential
“What I've seen is that When we do these things top down, we end up, like, massively under leveraging the potential of AI in, like, helping that company.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 12:26 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 21, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emberikos: Future AI will eliminate prompting and proactively assist users
“And so I think the world we want to get to is one where to use AI, you don't really need to, like, figure out the right way to prompt. It's just super easy for you. And you don't even need to recognize that AI could help you. It's just, like, knows you, connec…”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 7:40 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swisher: AI replacing human labor will yield larger outcomes than SaaS
“But in an AI world, if we actually think that we're augmenting labor, if we think that we can address A lot of these really big markets, if you move from human inputs to tokens, Then you're gonna have much bigger outcomes, and the math works.”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 26:01 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 positive
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Fintech and energy sectors are insulated from AI disruption
“Even the most deluded AI believer doesn't think that they're going to take over fintech and doesn't take over, they're going to take over energy. So I agree. You can, let me be clear, you can invest comfortably in those two areas and not have to spend a ton of…”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 1:04:34 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 positive
Opinion
Stebbings: Deep integrations and physical coordination protect companies from AI disruption
“There's two areas where I find value and security. It's one where there's deep integrations and partnerships, which are difficult, and they'll never do. We're an investor in Airwallex. We've discussed before. They have hundreds of banking relationships and par…”
Harry Stebbings Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 1:03:52 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI disruption is 5 years away in accounting, present in design
“I would argue something like accounting. You're five years away from AI native being disruptive. In something like, you know, design and co-gen, creative and co-gen, it's here right now.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 1:01:09 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jerry Murdock: Open-source communities will drive the biggest impact in AI
“And those open source communities that are popping up in massive amounts, they're the ones that are going to have the big impact.”
Jerry Murdock Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 3:02 The SaaS Apocalypse: Who Lives & Who Dies | Insight Partners Co-Founder, Jerry Murdock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 28, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agents, not general AI, represent the real AI tsunami
“And in this case, it's autonomous agents. Autonomous agents is, is in my opinion, what the tsunami is about. Not just AI in general.”
Jerry Murdock Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 2:08 The SaaS Apocalypse: Who Lives & Who Dies | Insight Partners Co-Founder, Jerry Murdock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zinman: Monday.com can reaccelerate growth and exceed past potential via AI
“But the way I look at this today is maybe this is our biggest opportunity as a company. Maybe we waited for that moment. And if we did the right things, we can reaccelerate the company and even grow much larger than what we could have become as a company.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 59:04 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zinman: Companies will shift spending from headcount to software as AI scales
“As AI become more dominant, companies will spend much more on software and much less on headcount going forward because they'll just become more efficient, and they'll gladly spend that.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 17:59 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Monday.com cut customer response time from 24 hours to 3 minutes using AI
“It used to take, on average, 24 hours to get back to a customer. Now it takes three minutes.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 23:29 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026
Insight
O'Driscoll: State power is a more tangible threat than theoretical AI risks
“AI might be scary in the theoretical after, oh, it could be used for this, it could be used for that. The state is scary in the real sense of we have laws, we have men with guns to enforce those laws, and we can take your company if we want to.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 15:16 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitchell Green: AI's biggest disruption will be in manufacturing and healthcare
“I actually think the biggest disruption you're gonna see is in, like, manufacturing, is in, like, healthcare, is in you know, think about, like, the companies that can figure out how to get drugs to market much faster than anybody else. Like, I think AI could …”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 17:30 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitchell Green: Companies will retrain workers displaced by AI
“A lot of these, like, companies will retrain people. They'll do different things. It's a, it's remarkable throughout history. There's been, like, lots of technological disruption over the last hundred years, and, like, people find new things.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 19:09 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 9, 2026 bullish
Insight
Clements: AI coding leads other verticals due to quick and durable value
“The reason that I think coding has become like the vertical in AI is because it shines on both dimensions. Like you can start using cursor in an afternoon and by that evening, like you're 10 times more productive. The time to value is very short. And then the …”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 2:12 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clements: Generational AI opportunities and outcomes are just beginning
“Those companies will be bigger than the outcomes that I probably envisioned a year ago, and there is still time to be a part of some of them, and because, like, the innovation flywheel is just getting started. We are barely scratching the surface.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 42:54 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Lemkin: Growth momentum is software's only defense in the AI age
“I'm betting on momentum is the only thing that's going to save us. Save us in the age of AI. So I'm betting on overpriced Palantir, Cloudflare, which is re-accelerating and benefiting from AI, and Shopify which is gaining market share.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 1:07:30 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
O'Driscoll: AI will not drive overall US unemployment above 10%
“Over the, again, I want to be over the medium term, the technology takes longer to diffuse than we in Silicon Valley allow, and people are more adaptable. So over the medium, I'm not, I don't see any kind of 10% plus tech of an unemployment.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 38:04 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI job displacement among graduates will become political by 2026
“That to Jason's point, I know if it's a moral issue, it's an economic issue, and I predict in 26, it's going to be a political issue.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 39:37 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 14, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Verna: The future of advertising will be almost purely AI-generated
“I think the future of advertising is going to be almost purely all AI.”
Elena Verna Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 43:44 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 14, 2026 positive
Insight
Verna: Sustainable distribution will dictate market winners as AI commoditizes products
“And in the world where product functionality becomes more commoditized of what you can create, distribution and growth becomes the reasons to win. So whoever has the best distribution that is earned, that is competitively defensible, that is sustainable, ah, t…”
Elena Verna Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 1:04:36 Elena Verna: How Lovable Launches Product & Hacks Social to Go Viral · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026
Insight
Rajaram: AI replaces labor via BPO cuts, attrition, and finally direct layoffs
“The first thing that's happening is businesses are outsourcing to third party BPOs, many of them in India, Philippines, et cetera. That spend is the easiest to cut because now you can offer the same service, higher quality, faster, and 20, 30% cheaper. The sec…”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 27:01 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026 negative
Opinion
Rajaram: Companies not hiring young people are making a huge mistake
“Some of the companies that are not hiring young people, They're making a huge mistake because young people are more AI maxed, as you could call it, like looks maxing, AI maxing than anybody else.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 1:16:56 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026 positive
Insight
Rajaram: AI cannot replicate DoorDash's liquidity and marketplace density
“AI can vibe code the ability to access restaurants, but it can't vibe code liquidity, courier density, reputation history, all of those things. So marketplace density is a network effect, which is structural.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 11:10 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Rajaram: The public market software selloff due to AI is 100% overreaction
“I think this is 100% overreaction because not all software companies are created equal, and we can talk about what the differences are.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 8:18 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026
Insight
Rajaram: Bolt-on AI strategies fail unless user experience is fundamentally reframed
“The bolt on AI strategy by itself has a real ceiling, but I think the companies where the bolt on really works are the ones that reframe what the product does, not just add the capability.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 19:44 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: Legacy public SaaS companies are in terminal decline over AI
“Very few public companies can effectively monetize AI, and that's why they're all in terminal decline. Almost all of them at the moment are in terminal decline.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 55:35 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 bearish
Insight
O'Driscoll: Short software products that fail to realize AI disruption
“If you're a software product and you don't think AI is going to disrupt not just how you build, but what you build, Then you actually probably want to actively short it.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 49:21 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 28, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gili Raanan: AI will not reduce capital needed for big startups soon
“AI, which at least in the next few years would not change that materially. And it takes a lot of money to build large companies.”
Gili Raanan Mar 28, 2026 ▶ 12:01 Why Margins Don't Matter for Early-Stage Startups | Gili Raanan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: AI was a major money-loser for VCs from 1945 to 2017
“AI was a tremendously good way to lose a lot of money in venture capital from 19, from 1945 to 20 17 right”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 3:47 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 neutral
Insight
Andreessen: High-innovation societies inherently produce wider economic inequality
“Having said that, like, if you want the country that is going to go to the moon and build AI, and all the rest of the stuff that is happening here, You know, you're going to have a dispersion. Of course, you're going to have a dispersion of outcomes.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 49:44 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Silicon Valley is more centralized than ever due to AI
“The tech industry is more centralized in Silicon Valley than it has been in its entire existence, and I think it's AI.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 0:29 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Companies falsely blame AI for corporate layoffs
“And now they all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI. Right, and I know this for a fact, because number one, I talk to them, but number two, I know this for a fact, because AI until, like, literally until, like, December, right, was not actually …”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:05:01 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Andreessen: 5 billion people will use smartphone AI within years
“We're not that many years away from five billion people in the world having AI running on five billion people who have smartphones and internet access.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 57:41 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 positive
Opinion
Andreessen: AI is the Most Democratic Technology in History
“If you look at AI, it's, I think it's the most hyper, hyper democratic, small D democratic technology I think we've ever seen.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 56:55 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 30, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:00:13 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 4, 2026 negative
What-if
Hims & Hers was a year or two too slow adopting AI
“I think I was too slow to force the company to invest in completely disrupting their team processes with AI... I think customer care, provider quality, all patient interactions. I think we were a year or two too slow on, on totally changing the model of how pa…”
Andrew Dudum Apr 4, 2026 ▶ 59:28 How Hims & Hers Reached a $4.3BN Market Cap on $2.3BN of Revenue | Andrew Dudum · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hassabis: AI will drive material science and energy breakthroughs within 5-10 years
“I mean, there could be unbelievable things happening in the five to 10 year timescale, including like a breakthrough in some kind of renewable free energy. You know, maybe we sold fusion. We're working on that right with our partners at Commonwealth fusion. I …”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 23:40 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Hassabis: Artificial intelligence technology is currently overhyped for the next year
“Literally today, as of today and in the next year, things are a bit overhyped in AI.”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 22:17 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hassabis: AI's revolutionary impact over a 10-year horizon remains vastly underappreciated
“I still think it's still very underappreciated how revolutionary this is going to be in the sort of timescale of about 10 years.”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 22:26 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 7, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hassabis: AI will more than pay for its own energy costs long-term
“AI will in the medium to long run more than pay for itself, I think, in terms of energy costs.”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 24:21 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bearish
Disclosure
Lemkin: Portfolio company with $100M+ revenue faces severe AI competition
“For example, I'm a, I'm an investor in a company that's crossed nine figures in revenue, but it is hitting massive AI competition and issues.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 1:11:07 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Lemkin: Investors will discover more portfolio companies fabricating audits with AI
“We're going to find more, more portfolio companies did that.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 44:21 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 negative
Insight
Reyna: Professional services models fail in AI due to two-day copycats
“In the world where, like, Snowflake grew up like, that made sense. In the world we are in today with AI, that doesn't make any sense. Because fundamentally, like, anyone can spin up a competitor of your product in the next two days. Anyone.”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 13:27 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin is ready to write off portfolio startups failing to adopt AI
“Like you know, I'm ready to move on to the new world and I'm almost, and I'm frankly ready to write off a lot of portfolio companies and a lot of public companies. It's time to move on guys. If you're not going to get there in April of 20, 26, then so be it. S…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 16:15 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not displace 50% of white-collar workers
“I don't think we're going to unemployed, 50% of white collar workers. I think it's madness. I think it has some legitimate dangers in cyber security and bioterrorism, but they're manageable.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 11:52 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Geoffrey Woo: AI Commoditizes Technical VC Skills, Making Taste Dominant
“So, my sense is that The software and like the classic smart people stuff gets commoditized, and the attention, the taste, the culture side gets more and more important. So I think the world goes into our favor versus away.”
Jeffrey Wu Apr 18, 2026 ▶ 12:24 Jake Paul: Traditional VC is Toast & Attention is More Valuable than Cash · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2036
O'Driscoll: Core payroll SaaS will survive and compound over next decade
“These are entire businesses that, you know, might have some impact at the margin in terms of agentic efficiency, but this core business will be there in five, 10 years' time. It'll compound because payroll is not, not everything is, I mean, it's, we're actuall…”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:13:28 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Accel and Sequoia raised $4B and $7B AI growth funds
“Excel adds four billion leaders fund to follow into hot AI growth rounds. Sequoia four days ago raises seven billion dollar growth round growth fund.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:05:59 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Most pre-AI CEOs cannot handle AI-era operational demands
“Cause I think most CEOs I work with are not up for it is the truth. Cause most pre AI CEOs are not, they're not up. You guys know this too, from your portfolio, not all, but most are not actually up for the massive amount of, what's more than nine, nine, six, …”
Jason Lemkin Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 36:31 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 25, 2026 positive
Insight
Masad: Any problem created by AI can be solved with more AI
“The thing about AI, any problem AI creates, there's more AI that you can build to solve that problem.”
Amjad Masad Apr 25, 2026 ▶ 24:09 Replit CEO: Why the SaaS Apocalypse is Justified & Why Coding Models are Plateauing | Amjad Masad · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Adam Foroughi: AppLovin Employees Who Avoid AI Technology Will Be Fired
“If you avoid utilizing these technologies, you're not, and you're gonna get fired, and that's life, and so we demand that the people who are at the company are adopting these technologies rapidly to create more output, but we don't shy away from different diff…”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 1:06:35 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026
Insight
Adam Foroughi: AI-Native Engineers Need Product Vision Over Raw Coding
“If you think about what's happening with AI native or engineers today, they have to be really imaginative. They have to be product people. They don't have to know how to write code, but they have to be able to audit code”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 30:14 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026
Insight
Adam Foroughi: Lay Off Teams Slow to Adopt AI and Rebuild
“And the reason I did that then is a belief that if the role was going to get automated, Or that AI was not being adopted fast enough in those departments. It's time to let those people go and rebuild the organization as if we were building it knowing what tech…”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 15:22 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adam Foroughi: AI Automated Creative Production Will Reduce Human Designer Headcount
“We felt like AI is going to get to the point where creatives are going to be automatically produced. You still need humans to innovate, but you can have less humans because a lot of the design work can be handed off.”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 16:59 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 2, 2026 negative
Insight
Lindquist: Downsizing SDR teams after adopting AI is a scared defensive play
“Anybody that's like, oh, well, you know, we're just going to cut our SDR team in half, I'm like okay. That's an interesting move, right? That's a scared play that you're making because you're saying I can get the same productivity for half versus saying I can …”
Becca Lindquist May 2, 2026 ▶ 58:18 Inside Clay's Sales Playbook | Becca Lindquist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tobi Lütke: AI will reduce the dominance of bad-faith media actors
“So we are, we're going in a world where I think less of the airwaves will be dominated by the bored people who act in bad faith, because I think the other side has ability to push back.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 1:20:04 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Tobi Lütke: Over 50% of Shopify's code is AI-generated
“It's a fair deal over 50%.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 1:02:05 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tobi Lütke: Tech layoffs are driven by pandemic overhiring, not AI
“What you see right now is not AI layoffs. It's also just like the companies that are really slow that like overhired just like everyone else doing it now.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 18:19 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Tobi Lütke: Entrepreneurship is the most AI-safe and AI-benefiting job
“I just think we're gonna go into the golden age of entrepreneurship. It's by far the most AI-safe job. It's by far the most AI-benefiting job.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 17:14 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tobi Lütke: AI will be used as a corporate scapegoat for everything
“What you will see is like AI is going to be blamed for absolutely everything, right? Like, because it's like, it's the perfect scapegoat.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 18:30 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Tobi Lütke aims to keep Shopify headcount flat with 100x AI productivity
“My real hope is seven and a half to 8000, right? Like at a hundred x productivity level, right?”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 16:43 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 4, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Tobi Lütke: Shopify's logistics fulfillment pivot was my most public mistake
“I think my most public mistake was going into Full on logistics and physical warehouse building just before AI got really good and not like, and we didn't have the ability to you know, do both of those things at the same time. So we actually had to like abando…”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 51:05 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Fire employees who brag about team size on LinkedIn
“Anyone on LinkedIn that talks about their team, fire them. My team this. They're all so precious about their team. Lead from the effin' front with AI.”
Jason Lemkin May 7, 2026 ▶ 0:44 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2026
Insight
Weitzman: Prior experience is a poor predictor of candidate AI skills
“Sometimes people tell you that they're great at AI and then you give them the challenge and they suck. You just got a test. And sometimes people have never used AI before, and you force them to sit with it for 48 hours, and by the end of the 48 hours, they're …”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 58:20 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2026
Insight
Stebbings: Younger generations use AI as an operating system for life
“I think Sam Altman said it very well when he said, you know, older people use it as a replacement to Google and younger people use it as their operating system for life.”
Harry Stebbings May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:57:24 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 11, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Legora Pushes Teams to Use AI Across Deals Without Token Budget Limits
“We're pushing our teams to use AI in every aspect of the deal as much as possible. And thankfully for us, like, budget isn't a huge concern at the moment, so we're really focused on automating”
Patrick Forquer May 11, 2026 ▶ 1:02:00 Inside Legora: Jude Law Generated $50M Pipeline | Are They Undervalued at $5.5BN? | Patrick Forquer · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 11, 2026
Disclosure
Forquer: Legora uses AI to score sales call demo quality
“We score demo quality using AI.”
Patrick Forquer May 11, 2026 ▶ 38:08 Inside Legora: Jude Law Generated $50M Pipeline | Are They Undervalued at $5.5BN? | Patrick Forquer · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI will progressively automate low-stakes primary care workflows
“It's those types of workflows that are, will, you know, progressively get automated till we get to some approximation of maybe the most boring variant of primary care, you know, that nobody wants to practice.”
Shiv Rao May 16, 2026 ▶ 42:37 The Five Year Desert to Product Market Fit & a $5.3BN Valuation with Shiv Rao, Founder @ Abridge · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 16, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Data cleanliness will be AI's biggest enterprise barrier
“I think one of the biggest barriers to AI progression within large enterprise in the next few years will be data cleanliness, data structure within large enterprises.”
Harry Stebbings May 16, 2026 ▶ 23:53 The Five Year Desert to Product Market Fit & a $5.3BN Valuation with Shiv Rao, Founder @ Abridge · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Browder: Meta's layoffs are driven by AI-powered engineer productivity
“With Meta, I think it's AI driven. There, it's clear that they're spending so much money on their data centers, and AI has made their engineering more productive. They need fewer engineers.”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:14:26 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 bearish
Insight
O'Driscoll: Mature software sectors never regain 50x ARR valuation multiples
“Every tech cycle has a set of industries that for the, once in their life, get valued on prospects and futures. It's like being 21. It literally is like being 21, and people will believe everything about you. Five years ago, that was SaaS. Today, it's AI. Once…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 20:53 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026 positive
Insight
Degnan: MEDDIC sales framework rules remain unchanged in AI era
“No pain, no deal, no champion, no deal. And the way that you develop a champion is you look at the metrics. You show them how to use those metrics to get the deal done. So, like, I, medic doesn't change, and people want it, want to say AI makes it different. I…”
Chris Degnan May 23, 2026 ▶ 24:25 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: High-Flyer AI Valuations Are 'SolarCity on Steroids'
“It's solar city on steroids, and we're all here for it because we love AI, but it makes no sense.”
Jason Lemkin May 28, 2026 ▶ 53:11 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Meta Is Spending Billions on AI Without Demanding ROI
“There's no one at Facebook yet, or that might change, saying, are we getting value from our billions of dollars in AI? We just assume we are and keep going, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 15:14 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 positive
Insight
Laqua: AI makes sales and marketing much more important than before
“I think that that actually AI makes sales and marketing much more important than it was in the past.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 45:11 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laqua: US visa friction gives London a major opportunity in AI
“Given the whole like visa situation in the United States, I think there's actually a phenomenal opportunity for London to become like a center of AI and a center of tech.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 22:46 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lauritsen: Software engineers will shift from writing code to system design
“Yeah, I think so. I think so. I think that's right. The job of assist, of a, of an engineer is changing from typing a bunch of code to sort of one layer above it, which is what does the system look like?”
Jacob Lauritzen Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 7:19 Inside Legora's Tech Stack: Why Token Maxing is Failing Enterprise Startups | Legora CTO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 6, 2026
Insight
Jacob Lauritsen: AI speed, product speed, and human adoption speed are distinct
“We have this notion internally that there's the speed of AI, there's the speed of our product, and then there's the speed of humans, you know, and they're like, they're not the same necessarily.”
Jacob Lauritzen Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 17:48 Inside Legora's Tech Stack: Why Token Maxing is Failing Enterprise Startups | Legora CTO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 6, 2026 negative
Insight
Lauritsen: Without product taste, unguided AI outputs converge to generic grayness
“I think if you don't have taste, then you let AI slop converge to sort of grayness, and everything looks the same, and everything's just like, I think you need to have taste to have sort of An opinion and it stands in the world. This is who we are. This is wha…”
Jacob Lauritzen Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 15:49 Inside Legora's Tech Stack: Why Token Maxing is Failing Enterprise Startups | Legora CTO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 8, 2026 bullish
Insight
Chernin: Cheaper AI intelligence drives higher compute consumption via Jevons paradox
“Every time we got intelligence cheaper. This, the same unit of intelligence cheaper. We are not reducing the consumption, but we increasing the consumption because we can just Solve more complex tasks with the same budget, or we can finally economically viably…”
Roman Chernin Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 10:31 Nebius Co-Founder on AI Infrastructure Bubbles | How Price Elastic is Demand for Compute · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 11, 2026 positive
Opinion
Lemkin: AI will manage parts of HR better than biased humans
“But I do think HR is one of these areas that in many parts of it will be better managed by AI. I think an AI can be a better VP of HR for certain parts of the job than a biased human.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 25:54 SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Grinberg: Dementia will eventually be solved using AI and software
“Dementia is kind of a go-to example where everyone understands how big of a deal that is. That is something that can be solved with better AI and better software. Like it's a matter of time. Like we will solve it and we can solve it.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 42:08 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI frontier will shift to chip design, drugs, and robotics
“Whatever is the frontier is going to be things that Kind of like AI is going and designing chips. AI is designing drugs. AI is figuring out how to build robots. AI is figuring out how to cure cancer. These are applications where you don't have like, ten millio…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 23:59 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 positive
Insight
AI frontier shifted from answering questions to autonomous task execution
“The frontier in AI is not about answering questions anymore. It's about actually going and doing work for you.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 5:45 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan Petersen: Flexport targets 80% AI workflow completion by 2026
“And I need at least like 80% of those to come to life and like actually have the impact. Otherwise we're just spending money and not getting much back for the AI.”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 1:20:30 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 neutral
Insight
Petersen: AI can double salesperson capacity, but sales remains relationship-driven
“And like, there's a limit to how many relationships a human can have. And I think you can probably use those to use AI and use other techniques to like double that ratio or something, but like there's some limit to how many relationships you can maintain. And …”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 20:43 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Arora: Palo Alto Networks exclusively hires via hackathons to transform workforce
“We've been hiring people only through hackathons now, right? And we see natural attrition of two percent, give or take a month, and we just replace them with people who actually are AI savvy people who are from hackathons. Give me 12 months, I'll have sort of …”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 17:02 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026 negative
Opinion
Arora: More Than Half of Enterprises Are Not Using AI Correctly
“I think more than half the enterprises are still not getting it right on the use of AI perspective.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 9:18 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Arora: AI will increase enterprise demand for technical and sales resources
“People believe we're going to have less people working because AI is going to take over our jobs. I don't believe that. I think what's going to happen is you can'forward imagine the number of people on my team who want more technical resources, more AI savvy r…”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 14:54 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Arora: 90% of enterprise employees are not AI-savvy
“The challenge right now is, 90% of the enterprise employees are not AI savvy. They're not. They have to learn.”
Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 16:15 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Widespread AI adoption will boost productivity but not industry profitability
“You can have an improvement in productivity and a massive improvement in productivity in industry by virtue of the advent of an enabling technology like AI, and no improvement in profitability for that industry if everyone adopts the technology.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 41:39 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: AI efficiency gains will cut white-collar service costs by 20%
“If consulting or any of these companies, any of these white-collar jobs are 20% more efficient with AI, Then everyone should adopt it, and then everyone will be, then the cost of those white-collar jobs, like audit, should be reduced by 20%.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 42:21 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: Anything outsourced to offshore BPO will be replaced by AI
“When you think about what work AI will replace, you know, white collar work, you can say BPO is a good proxy for that because anything a company is willing to outsource to India, they're probably willing to outsource to AI, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 1:10:26 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 27, 2026 negative
Insight
Overreliance on AI for Writing Degrades Core Skill and Judgment
“I try to use AI for as little of my writing as possible, because I think if I use AI for all my writing, I'm not gonna be able to write anymore, and I'm not gonna be able to remember what is good writing. I'm pretty scared of that to be honest.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 47:14 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Shridhar: Electricity Is the Key Factor Enabling the AI Revolution
“Any revolution, and I would call AI. Absolutely a revolution. It's almost a hockey stick on a hockey stick. Clearly, electricity becomes the key factor.”
K.R. Shridhar Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 0:26 Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2046
Shridhar: AI Demand Will Drive Global Electricity Abundance Within 20 Years
“So I'm super optimistic that if we look back 20 years from now, we will say AI was the best thing that happened because of which electricity abundance happened to everybody on the planet. AI is just a catalyst, a stepping stone, and a, and an accelerator.”
K.R. Shridhar Jun 29, 2026 ▶ 29:03 Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 bullish
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI agents lurking in Slack capture crucial context to automate work
“Capturing that context is really useful because it allows you, it allows an AI to automate that work. And the truth is a lot of that context exists in Slack. So if you're watching people interact on Slack, and if you watch it autonomously for weeks and months …”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 1:14:38 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 bearish
Insight
Rory O'Driscoll: AI-Era Software Companies Are Either Accelerating or Irrelevant
“Software companies in the age of AI are either accelerating or irrelevant.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 15:12 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: AI features helped Box return to double-digit growth
“It has led to a boost at Box. It hasn't turned Box into a hundred percent grower. It's gotten it back to double digit growths.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 16:12 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 6, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mignano: Music creation was never fully democratized before AI
“Music had never really been fully democratized before AI.”
Mike Mignano Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 55:34 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Replace 50% of White-Collar Jobs in 5 Years
“I mean, look, in five years' time, if Dario is correct, and 50% of white-collar jobs have been replaced by AI, which I don't believe for a second, Then you damn right. There's going to be political. Political controversy. And if you think five percent is going…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 12:38 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026
Insight
Lemkin: Massive Dilution Has Been Institutionalized in the AI Era
“I think in the age of AI massive dilution has been sort of institutionalized.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 17:58 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Insight
Jain: Human plus AI teams will always outcompete pure AI automation
“I think the, you want to be performing the best in whatever you do. And I don't think you're going to take a 90% solution. Well, I mean, like, look, the they're kind of like, you know, like, it's a, it's not about you not being cost-constrained. It's about you…”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 28:52 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 negative
Opinion
Jain: AI cannot fully replace a single job role today
“I think it's a wrong goal in my opinion to say that, hey, like replace yourself with AI. First of all, I think you're giving too much credit to AI in, you know, when you say that. It's just not ready right now. There's, you give me a name of one job that you c…”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 27:45 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: Information seeking is the world's largest AI application today
“That's like the largest application or use case for AI in the world today. Is in fact information seeking and question answering.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 10:25 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 13, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: Replacing human workers with AI will take longer than expected
“I was very concerned with how quickly we're going to find humans being replaced with AI. And I think I'm now looking at looking at the same thing. I think it's going to take much longer than I anticipated.”
Avishai Abrahami Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 59:18 Wix Founder: Will Base44 Win the Vibe-Coding Wars? | The Truth About the Economics of Vibe-Coding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 13, 2026 negative
Insight
Abrahami: SaaS Multiples Collapsed Due to Market AI Uncertainty
“I think that's kind of a thing now with all SaaS companies, right, where the multipulse went to shit, and I think a lot of it is, is because the market don't know how to calculate the danger for SaaS companies with AI”
Avishai Abrahami Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 4:43 Wix Founder: Will Base44 Win the Vibe-Coding Wars? | The Truth About the Economics of Vibe-Coding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: AI disruption is an extreme shock unfolding in slow motion
“In, in, in this sense, I think AI is the exception because it would be, it was an extreme thing that we've seen happening in slow motion, right? It took a few years. It didn't happen, boom.”
Avishai Abrahami Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 53:24 Wix Founder: Will Base44 Win the Vibe-Coding Wars? | The Truth About the Economics of Vibe-Coding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 13, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Abrahami: The Tech Sector Gives Too Much Credit to AI
“I think that we all give too much credit For AI and what it can do, right? And when you start looking at the details, it's not really doing that well for a lot of the things.”
Avishai Abrahami Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 37:26 Wix Founder: Will Base44 Win the Vibe-Coding Wars? | The Truth About the Economics of Vibe-Coding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 18, 2026 positive
Insight
AI Creates Better CAD Models Via Python Than Direct 3D Vectors
“You can generate really good CAD models by having it write Python to make the CAD model. Like, it's not good at, necessarily good at, like, three-D space visualization or outputting a drawing Right, as vectors, but it's really, really good at generating plausi…”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:21:15 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 18, 2026 positive
Insight
AI Enables 20 Mechanical Engineers To Do Work Of 100
“And so we're seeing that you can do the design with far fewer people using AI to optimize a lot of the design parameters, where historically you might have needed a hundred mechanical engineers to design every single nut and bolt and part You can do it with 20…”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:20:27 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Menlo Ventures pivoted its investment strategy to focus entirely on AI
“We've pivoted the firm to be all in AI.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 4:53 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 29, 2026 bearish
Insight
Lemkin: AI is getting more expensive as token usage scales
“AI is expensive and it's not getting cheaper. It's not, it's getting more and more expensive as we burn more and more tokens. We have longer and longer runs. And so the pressure to use cheaper models is going to go up.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 25:15 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Aug 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Angelopoulos: AI Will Eradicate Diseases Like Open Problems in Math
“I think that the, like, level of just human flourishing that's going to happen as we start to one by one eradicate diseases the same way that we're currently eradicating open problems in math is going to be incredible.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 1:07:41 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: AI Will Not Cause Mass Unemployment, Only Massive Productivity Gains
“Do I think that we're going to have mass unemployment because of AI? And you're seeing a lot of leadership now agree with the viewers. No, I think we're going to see tremendous productivity gains.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:07:57 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Insight
Frankel: Saying a startup is not AI is like not using the internet
“Well, look, everybody's AI, right? Like, it's almost like saying that you're not AI today is like, I'm not using the internet, right? It's like, why wouldn't you use the most contemporary tools? So everyone's AI.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 8:11 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Frankel: Microsoft Has Done a "Crappy Job" With AI
“So I think Microsoft have done a crappy job of AI generally.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:04:43 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Frankel: Google Is in Pole Position in AI Due to Search Context
“Like I think Google's, Google is actually, if anything, in pole position because they come from that environment and the ability to search with context, the ability to apply AI with context is just like incredible, but they're having to fight like crazy for it…”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:04:49 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 17, 2026 bullish
What-if
Mac: Uber Could Run Today's Scope in Five Years with Fewer People
“If you took everything Uber does today and held it static and said, you know, in five years you're going to need more or less people, I'd say, well, we could do everything we do today with less people in five years because of the power of AI, but we're going t…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 45:27 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 24, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bek: Sequoia has no unified house view on AI
“Oh you know what, the funny thing is people love to say Sequoia believes X and Y, but we actually have very different opinions. There's no house view on AI.”
Julien Bek Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 1:25:53 Inside Sequoia's Investment Committee | How the SpaceX & Citadel Deals Went Down | Julien Bek
Aug 29, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reyes: AI Will Not Replace Engineers 1-to-1 but Create New Development Methodologies
“You're not going to replace human with AI as much as you're going to build a new system for developing software and humans are going to build that new system alongside AI. And that new system is going to look very unfamiliar, and so it's not so much a one-to-o…”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 1:24:22 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Sep 5, 2026 positive
Insight
Weitzman: The best way to use AI is verbal pseudocoding and architecture explanation
“I always think that the best way to interact with AI is you are Chatting in the chat, or actually doing it verbally, and you're essentially pseudocoding with your words constantly, and you're explaining architecture”
Cliff Weitzman Sep 5, 2026 ▶ 42:59 How to Build Your Own Data Center & Why Every Startup Should Do It
Sep 7, 2026 bullish
Insight
Greze: AI encourages hiring more engineers by boosting their marginal revenue
“AI means that suddenly that engineer can generate more than they could have before. So maybe before they could only generate a 150 K of revenue. Maybe now they can generate two 50 K of revenue. So suddenly AI makes you hire the incremental person, right? One m…”
Jean-Denis Greze Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 1:12:12 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Sep 7, 2026 bullish
Insight
Greze: B2B AI enables revenue generation whereas consumer AI only saves time
“And when I do those things, I save time and time is worth money. But on the business side, when I create something that generates value for the business, They make more money and then they want more of that thing.”
Jean-Denis Greze Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 48:50 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Sep 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Franceschetti: AI will enable the right companies to become holding companies
“Well, I think, so here is another theory that I have, and ours is just my opinion, but I think with AI companies will, the right companies will transform themselves in holdings.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 21:47 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
Sep 12, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2046
Franceschetti: Children born today will never work due to AI
“Well, I don't think if a kid is born now, by the time they are 20 years old, they will ever work. By then, I think AI will be at a point where humans don't work.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 1:07:14 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
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