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Mike Maples

Founding Partner, Floodgate · 5 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderoperatorexecutiveauthor@m2jr ↗LinkedIn ↗floodgate.com ↗

Mike Maples Jr. is a prominent early-stage investor who backed foundational technology companies including Twitter, Twitch, Lyft, and Okta at the seed stage. Prior to co-founding Floodgate, he was an operating executive at Tivoli Systems and Motive, and he co-authored the 2024 book Pattern Breakers.

116statements → 28claims → 13claims resolved → 62%fully supported → 3.95/5average certainty → 2.31/5average debate potential → 4.0/5argument clarity · the sources → 8said about them ↓

8 supported 3 partly supported 2 contradicted 15 not checkable as stated how the 28 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

12 predictions · 16 assertions · 11 opinions · 55 insights · 21 disclosures · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 28 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 13 are resolved, and 15 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Mike argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Maples: The federal $40B broadband initiative has created zero broadband connections
“We've passed some, what was it? Forty billion dollar build broadband, better bullshit bill that nobody's built any broadband connections I'm aware of.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 55:12 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Maples: Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by the end of 2025
“I'm gonna guess that it gets to a 130.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 1:01:13 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
63% certainty 3
72% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.0 / 5 directness 3.8 · coherence 4.4 · precision 3.9 · compression 3.5

redirected or did not address 12 of 51 assessed questions (24%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

262 words/min while actually speaking · 13.4 um and uh per 1k words · 20.2 false starts per 1k · 29.1% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 24,786 words across 3 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 4 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 4.5/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2.3/10
setup questions received 45%

Everything Mike Maples said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Maples: VC follow-on returns are so bad LPs would revolt
“If the LPs knew, like if they tracked, what's the return on follow-on checks versus first checks, there'd be pitchforks and like, Revolts in the street. It's so bad.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 11:04 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Maples: The federal $40B broadband initiative has created zero broadband connections
“We've passed some, what was it? Forty billion dollar build broadband, better bullshit bill that nobody's built any broadband connections I'm aware of.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 55:12 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Maples: Raising $4M seed rounds just to sell 20% equity is stupid
“People are raising four million bucks because that's what it takes to dilute 20%. And that's just stupid. It's not a good way to get started, and it hurts the founders even more than it hurts the VCs because the one thing you never get back as a founder is you…”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 1:07:37 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Maples: High-Priced Seed Deals Like Character.ai Won't Return 100x
“Expensive, high-priced investment, and hopefully it works, but you're not going to make a thousand times your money on that deal. You're probably not going to make a hundred times your money, even in the best of circumstances.”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 8:37 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Venture outliers usually start at low seed valuations
“I believe that the outliers usually start out at a low price, because they're outliers. Because they're non-consensus and right. People tend to believe that the world is divided between low price deals with low upside and high price deals with high upside. I d…”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 37:49 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maples: US Dollar Will Lose Reserve Status Without Fiscal Responsibility
“It's inevitable that the dollar will not be the reserve currency that If we are not more responsible with the stewardship of our money.”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 0:18 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Maples: Clubhouse had 'COVID market fit', not true product-market fit
“I don't think so. I think it had COVID market fit. I think it had a bunch of people staying home, bored out of their minds, trying to figure out what to do, and it became, it was kind of this meme-worthy thing”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 53:28 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Most VC Funds Have at Most One Great Investor
“The problem with most firms is that they have less than or equal to one really good investor, and then they force the, what's called the limited partners or the LPs to buy the bundle of everybody else who's not a good investor.”
Mike Maples Oct 10, 2016 ▶ 6:48 20VC: Floodgate's Mike Maples on What Makes Category Kings, What Most Venture Funds Do Wrong When Hiring & 'The Dance Of Product Market Fit'
Insight
Maples: Fund size dictates VC strategy due to power law math
“Your fund size is your strategy, and I guess I'm kind of famous for saying that for a long time. I don't know if I've ever really expressed why that is, so here's why. The power law is real, and so people don't realize that Pareto is not just eighty-twenty, it…”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 2:19 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: 3x and 10x VC funds have nearly identical loss ratios
“And so the loss ratio is about the same between a three X fund and a 10 X plus fund. What matters is the magnitude of your big winners”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 11:41 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maples: Floodgate's best startup deals have historically been their cheapest, not most expensive
“No. Actually the reverse is true, but I don't know if that would still be the case.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 23:47 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Seed funds are better positioned for secondary sales than multi-stage funds
“You can make money on the buy, and you can make money on the sell. And what most people don't understand is that the seed funds are actually better positioned to make money on the sell than anybody. Better, better positioned than the multi-stage by a wide marg…”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 36:23 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maples: Most overfunded startups without PMF won't clear preference stacks
“I think most of them won't clear their preference stack.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 51:22 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maples: SpaceX could become the most valuable company in the world
“I don't have to squint too hard to see a world where they're the most valuable company in the world.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 54:52 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Maples: Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by the end of 2025
“I'm gonna guess that it gets to a 130.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 1:01:13 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maples: Elon Musk won't be able to mass-fire federal workers
“Like, I don't think that Elon is going to be able to do what he did with, say, Twitter, and fire a bunch of people and, you know, change all the rules.”
Mike Maples Jan 6, 2025 ▶ 1:01:34 Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: $20M-$30M post-money seed rounds generate poor investor returns
“When a seed round is priced at 20 post, 30 post, it's not non-consensus. It's priced to perfection, and it's priced in a way that everybody believes it's gonna succeed, that it's a hot deal. And that's bad for two reasons. It's bad for the investor, Because ev…”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 2:56 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Maples: Zenefits Was YC's Only Startup With PMF That Failed
“The only one he could name was Zenefits, and they broke the law.”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 19:33 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Blitzscaling is an edge case for rare market conditions
“It's really not. It's an edge case for a very rare condition where it's clear that the market is pulling these features out of the market massively quickly, and somebody has to fulfill that demand the first.”
Mike Maples Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 29:02 Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E1062 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Maples: Venture capital signaling risk is overrated
“I think signaling is overrated. I think that companies that perform well always raise money. And companies that perform so-so Can sometimes benefit from a positive signal, but usually, usually not being able to raise is a function of not getting product market…”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 10:29 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Maples: Protecting SVB depositors does not resemble a bailout
“Yeah, it's incredible to me that you could put your money in a bank, that there's not transparent reporting that the federal government said was okay, and now it's like somehow an entrepreneur's fault because The bank's assets weren't what they said they were,…”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 32:07 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: VCs must prioritize LP fiduciary duty over bank loyalty
“Yeah, and I mean, like that's not the decision I would have made, right? I'm not gonna judge who made what decision, but my view is that it's not my money. And you know, if I was the Stanford Endowment, if I was you know, Sloan Kettering, what would I want Flo…”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 33:00 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Maples: Floodgate initial check writers cannot allocate follow-on reserves
“We have a partner dedicated just to follow on investing, and so the person that writes the first check Doesn't get to decide who writes the follow on check.”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 46:38 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Maples: Product-market fit is the sole requirement for startup success
“If we get product market fit, we will be successful almost no matter what else happens. And if we don't get product market fit, we can do everything else right. It won't matter.”
Mike Maples Mar 24, 2023 ▶ 53:03 Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 24statements(92 left)

The other half of the tape: Mike Maples's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode on 20VC. 7 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 1

Statements about Mike Maples, by other people (7)

Opinion
Kupor: Most startup bridge rounds are simply bridges to nowhere
“I would agree with Mike that unfortunately a lot of them are bridges to nowhere. You know, most of the time, in my experience, it's pretty clear, though, whether that's the case or whether you are bridging to something.”
Scott Kupor Jun 10, 2019 ▶ 19:26 20VC: a16z's Scott Kupor on The Biggest Learnings From Scaling a16z from $300m to $7Bn AUM, The Biggest Mistakes Entrepreneurs Make When Pitching VCs & Why VC Is Simply A Customer Service Business
Opinion
Neil Young: Mike Maples provides pragmatic 'lizard brain' clarity on boards
“If Bing is the wizard brain, Mike is the lizard brain, or as probably he would like to be the thunder lizard brain, but the lizard brain in that Mike very expertly states the obvious. His instincts about what you should do at any given point in time are not pa…”
Neil Young Jan 26, 2018 ▶ 21:29 20VC: How To Analyse Platform Shifts Effectively, The Effects Of Not Having Free and Open Distribution & The Right Way To Think About Board Composition with Neil Young, Founder & CEO @ N3twork
Disclosure
Ferriss treated his initial $120K angel investing budget as non-refundable tuition
“Why don't I take what I would have spent on tuition, a 120 K for two years, something like that. And that would have been sunk cost. I pay out of pocket. And what's the hope with business school, what you learn and the connections you make, make it worth it th…”
Tim Ferriss Oct 31, 2025 ▶ 44:27 20VC: Tim Ferriss: Why I Walked Away From Angel Investing After Uber | How I Accidentally Lost $150 Million | Money Fixed My Problems—Then Made Me Miserable
Insight
Walk: Venture fund size dictates investment strategy
“People attribute this to Mike Maple's affiliate and it's a hundred percent true. Like your fund size is your strategy, right?”
Hunter Walk Jan 31, 2023 ▶ 38:15 Homebrew’s Hunter Walk & Satya Patel: Why $100M is Not Enough to Execute a Seed Strategy | 20VC #972 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
The largest venture outcomes require pivots and extra discovery time
“And so the more we looked, the more we found that the biggest outcomes of the vintage were companies that had either pivoted once or on their second or third business model, or took a little bit more Time and that learning and discovery phrase to use Mike Mapl…”
Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 9:08 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital
Opinion
Gordon: Mike Maples provides game-changing insights in every board meeting
“So I love Mike Maples from Floodgate. He's been, I've been on a couple boards with him. What he does is so well, he has high empathy for CEOs. It seems in every board meeting, he says at least one thing that's game changing.”
Bing Gordon Nov 27, 2017 ▶ 13:24 20VC: Kleiner Perkins' Bing Gordon on Lessons From Serving On Amazon & Zynga's Board, Why The Best Investors Are Good Listeners and Sceptical Optimists & The Most Important Value Add A VC Can Provide
Assertion Supported
Kaji: Maples, Dearing, Anderson, and Clavier pioneered the micro VC trend
“Folks like Mike Maples and Michael Daring Steve Anderson, Jeff Clavier they started the micro VC trend and they started raising these small funds when it wasn't even a thought.”
Samir Kaji Dec 2, 2015 ▶ 24:38 20 VC 093: Where Is The Micro VC Market Going with Samir Kaji @ First Republic Bank

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0011112016episodesmentions
0112016episodes it came up in
000.50.5112016episodesmentions per episode
2016 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (5)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Mike Maples: Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups and Founders | E1242 · 20VC with Harry Jan 6, 2025 55m
Is the VC Model Broken? Jason Lemkin, Mike Maples, Eric Paley & Harry Stebbings Debate | E Sep 20, 2023 21m
Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currenc Mar 24, 2023 39m
20VC: Floodgate's Mike Maples on 3 Key Breakthroughs Startups Experience in Success, The R May 11, 2020 26m
20VC: Floodgate's Mike Maples on What Makes Category Kings, What Most Venture Funds Do Wro Oct 10, 2016 21m
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