Paul Martino

Co-Founder and Managing General Partner, Bullpen Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounder@ahpah ↗LinkedIn ↗bullpencap.com ↗

Paul Martino pioneered post-seed venture investing at Bullpen Capital, where he led investments in companies including FanDuel, Ipsy, and SpotHero. Before founding Bullpen in 2010, he launched several startups and made early angel investments in Zynga, Udemy, and TubeMogul.

22statements → 8claims → 3claims resolved → 33%fully supported → 4.05/5average certainty → 2.55/5average debate potential → 4.5/5argument clarity · the sources → 17said about them ↓

1 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 5 not checkable as stated how the 8 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 7 assertions · 2 opinions · 10 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 8 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved, and 5 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Paul argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Micro VC funds grew from 25 in 2009 to 350 in 2016

“And at this time, this is Christmas of oh nine. There's only 25 micro funds in Christmas of oh nine. By the way, there's now 350 or so Seven years later.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 7:21 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted

Late-stage VC funds shrank from 900 in 2000 to 90 by 2016

“And guess what? The Series A and later funds, they were consolidating through this period. You know, they had gone from 900 funds back in the bubble, 99, 2000 down to 90. So they had taken a full zero off. So you got one group going from 25 funds to three 25. …”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 7:44 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.5 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4.9 · precision 4.5 · compression 4

redirected or did not address 1 of 24 assessed questions (4%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

247 words/min while actually speaking · 7.6 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 6,201 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 5/10

pushed back at the host ▾ 3/10

setup questions received 45%

host pushback: the hardest questions Harry asked, tap to play ▶ 13:48“how would you respond then if I said that you're a spreadsheet investor?” ▶ 21:42“is this not a paradox to the think different contrarian approach to simply adopt an institutional model?” ▶ 18:24“is that not the big competition for you in terms of funding that they could just go back to their existing seed investors who will give it to them if the metrics are there?”

when Paul pushed back ▶ 16:54“That paints a very negative picture that I, I won't say is completely wrong, but I want to make sure you get the nuance of it.” ▶ 21:48“It's a fair question, and I wish I had a better answer, but once you get into the mechanics of how a venture fund works in terms of the way limited partners give you money, the way…”

What they said22 What others said17 Episodes1

Everything Paul Martino said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Partly supported

Accel's returns were not top-tier prior to its Facebook investment

“Excel's returns prior to the Facebook fund weren't the best in the industry, and so some analyst types in the LP community were like, well, you know, should I stay in Excel or not?”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 26:49 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

VCs relying on gut instinct miss breakout companies like FanDuel

“If you're not looking at the spreadsheet and only looking at kind of these softer, subjective, gut-oriented factors, you're going to miss FanDuel. You're going to miss Namely. You're going to miss Ipsy. You're going to miss some of the absolute best performing…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 14:50 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Seed investors categorically refuse internal bridge funding for portfolio companies

“And it turns out many seed investors, if you ask them, if they come on your show and say, hey, seed investor, do you inside bridge your companies? Almost every one of them is going to tell you categorically, no, that's something we don't do.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 19:01 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Opinion

Venture capitalists fail to recognize disruption within their own industry

“It is amazing that for a group of people that fund disruption to be so oblivious to disruption happening to their own business, it is It has been fascinating to me to see people who fund disruption, not understand that an iceberg hit this business over the las…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 19:43 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Targeting older incubator cohorts yields superior venture deal flow

“What if we said, let's go look at not what the cool kids are in YC's graduating class, but let's go look at those companies that have great metrics from three classes ago that nobody's paying attention to. You know, we sat down with some of the incubators, for…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 20:23 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Fear of missing outliers traps LP capital in underperforming legacy funds

“This has now trained a generation of LPs to be scared to death to cut off funds that aren't performing well, because they could be just around the corner from Facebook. And as a result, a lot of that money that should be going to new and innovative funds gets …”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 27:07 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Opinion

Josh Koppelman's seed model was venture's most innovative move in 60 years

“Josh truly innovated, and his For lack of a better word, early stage option buying model. I don't know exactly the right phrase to use it, but to basically say, I'm going to let these companies fail fast and write small checks to them. It was perhaps the singl…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 29:01 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

The largest venture outcomes require pivots and extra discovery time

“And so the more we looked, the more we found that the biggest outcomes of the vintage were companies that had either pivoted once or on their second or third business model, or took a little bit more Time and that learning and discovery phrase to use Mike Mapl…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 9:08 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

18 to 24 months is optimal startup runway; 36 breeds complacency

“And so I think 24 months is about the most I'd ever advise a startup company taking in an early stage. I think 36 is too much. But you know what? 12 is probably too little now, given that the depths of the crunch is as bad as it is.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 11:28 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Disclosure

Bullpen Capital ignores founder pedigree and screens purely on metrics

“We ignore a lot of that stuff at the front of the screen and just look at the numbers. And what it allows us to do is it allows us to spot a lot of things other people are just missing. Categories, founding teams, and geographies that nobody's paying attention…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 14:41 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Bullpen Capital averages a 20% valuation step-up over prior seed rounds

“We're now 54 deals in across three funds, and on average, the valuation we pay is about 20% higher than the post money of the round in front of us. This is a very interesting statistic, and by the way, let me give you the variance. Our rounds are between flat …”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 15:31 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Pitching non-traditional VC strategies to LPs is extremely difficult

“When you do something different, especially for the limited partner community, it is very difficult to get that funded because they're just used to buying IBM.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 24:15 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Fewer than 10% of new VC funds have unique strategies

“I would say no more than 25 of them have a truly different strategy other than I'm better in this category. I'm better in this geography than these other people. And so it's crazy to me that less than 10% of all of the newly created funds have a different stra…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 26:02 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Incompatible seed and late-stage VC models create a startup funding gap

“These portfolio constructions are incompatible. If you're an investor, you're going to end up having a lot of companies that need a little bit more money to hit the milestone. And if you're an entrepreneur, what happens if you raise just a little bit too littl…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 7:05 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Assertion Contradicted

Late-stage VC funds shrank from 900 in 2000 to 90 by 2016

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Founders are raising rolling seed tranches with increasing valuation caps

“And another thing that the smart entrepreneurs are doing is some of them are figuring out that they can do it a little bit at a time. I get my first six months on a cap note, and I get my next six months on another note, and I get my next six months on another…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 11:48 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Disclosure

Bullpen Capital rarely backs startups burning over $200k net monthly

“We've done very few deals with burn rates over a 200 net as the result of the math that I just outlined.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 13:39 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Bullpen Capital never offers six-month bridge loans to portfolio companies

“Bullpen never does bridges. If you need a bridge for six more months, I'm not your fund.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 17:08 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Venture fund mechanics leave very little room for structural innovation

“It's a fair question, and I wish I had a better answer, but once you get into the mechanics of how a venture fund works in terms of the way limited partners give you money, the way that you deal with taxes, etc., it is very difficult to innovate at all on the …”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 21:48 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Target sectors that were popular two years ago but are now ignored

“But the way I find my new favorite one is what was cool two years ago that's out of favor now, that's what I'm going to be looking at.”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 30:28 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Insight

Public CEO coach interviews bear no similarity to private guidance

“It is the difference between the public version of the CEO coach, which is what you see in a little taped interview and the private version of the person giving you the one-on-one guidance. There's no way to explain what the difference is other than to say the…”

Paul Martino Nov 16, 2016 ▶ 32:53 20VC: Investing In Sectors That Were Cool 2 Years Ago, What Accel's Facebook Fund Taught a Generation of LPs & Why LPs Need A New Discovery Process with Paul Martino, Founding Partner @ Bullpen Capital

Assertion Supported

Micro VC funds grew from 25 in 2009 to 350 in 2016

“And at this time, this is Christmas of oh nine. There's only 25 micro funds in Christmas of oh nine. By the way, there's now 350 or so Seven years later.”

The other half of the tape: Paul Martino's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 17 times in 6 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 12 Semil Shah 4 Jon Dishotsky 1