Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will collapse product cycles by skipping documentation for prototyping
“And I think AI completely collapses that cycle and accelerates a lot of the upfront up funnel work where, where again, you can just do, you can build a prototype and you can show that to customers and like the PM and the designer might just work collaborativel…”
Insight
Tolkin: Consensus product decision-making is wrong
“So I think consensus product decision making is challenging and wrong.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Top 5% of tech talent gains value in the AI era
“The top one percent, the top five percent of all of the skill sets get a lot more valuable and the median gets a lot less valuable.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will cause engineering, product, and design roles to converge
“And I think we will see that we'll see a collapsing or converging of the end product design triad. I think they will never be the same, but I think everything will be pulled in tighter. So I think all of that will change.”
Insight
Tolkin: Early-stage startups should prioritize growth over technical debt
“Like you have to earn the right to exist in the future and paying down tech debt doesn't pay the bills. And so I think at that stage, it's probably a little bit early to start paying down technical debt.”
Insight
Tolkin: Early-stage CEOs must act as Chief Product Officers
“Always no, but in the early stages, yes. So, you know, there are certain scales of companies where that, you know, maybe doesn't make sense anymore. But in the early days, yeah, I do think they should. I think outsourcing your, if you think that the most impor…”
Insight
Tolkin: Talking to ten customers provides as much data as 150 quantitative points
“Talking to users is data. Like that is real. If you talk to 10 customers and they tell you something that is just as much data as I looked at a 150 data points and, you know, here was the insight.”
Insight
Tolkin: Failed hires are almost always the company's fault
“So I believe that poor hiring decisions are almost, are never just the person, never just the responsibility of the person being hired, the new person who it didn't work out with. It's almost always the company or the hiring person's fault, right?”
Insight
Tolkin: Chronic disagree-and-commit signals an employee is in the wrong role
“Can I disagree and commit for sure? Right? Because that, that is like how we make velocity based decisions. If I'm disagreeing and committing too much, Then, yeah, I agree with you. Then, like, I'm in the wrong place because I'm not aligned to where we're goin…”
Insight
Tolkin: Frequent job hopping limits professional growth and impact
“I think the reality is you just become more effective and therefore you can do more more, more, more quickly. You have deeper relationships, you have deeper context on the company, you have deeper context on the customer base, and therefore you can be more eff…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Chinese mobile app design favors bold visuals over Western minimalism
“And the reality is you go to China and there's, it's different, right? It's not as like the sleek, elegant design isn't where design sort of falls into the background isn't as prominent and it's a lot more, you know, color and red and big buttons and that type…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Western and Asian mobile app design styles are converging
“I think there's absolutely a convergence. I think probably the influence is a little bit more being pulled towards us, but the reality is like apps like, you know, TikTok, there's a lot of things going on, things flying around, scrolling, all that stuff. Like …”
Opinion
Tolkin: Defaulting the Uber app to UberPool was a poor product decision
“And for a little bit the default was Uber pool. And I think that was a poor product decision. Because even if you had chosen Uber X on your last ride, it defaulted back to Uber pool. And so the UI wasn't clear enough what was happening. And so people were acci…”
Insight
Tolkin: AI expands PM tools but core product skillset stays unchanged
“I think what changes is your ability to communicate those ideas, your ability to do more upfront, your ability to do better user research because you can show prototypes easier. So I think the tool chest gets bigger, but the core skillset of like, Actually fig…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: More PMs will start development in prototyping than design tools
“I think maybe, maybe the generalized version of that is do more PM start in prototyping land than they do in strictly design land? And I think the answer to that is yes.”
Insight
Tolkin: One-pagers fail when focusing on solutions rather than problems
“I think people get wrong where the one pager is the solution description, not the problem statement.”
Insight
Tolkin: Launch new products in sandboxes to protect core offerings
“I think the best way that I've seen this approached is by giving new products a little bit of a sandbox, a contained sandbox that relaxes a bunch of the constraints of the company. But does it in a way that if it's completely fails or whatever, it actually doe…”
Insight
Tolkin: Second products must leverage core advantages or existing users
“It doesn't have to benefit the first, but it has to take advantage of some competitive advantage that your company has, right? And so if you think about sort of a classic two by two matrix where you have, you know, your customer set and your competitive advant…”
Disclosure
Tolkin: Opendoor is shifting its multi-product focus to seller capabilities
“We had a bunch of initiatives over the year, building a retail buyer business, building a mortgage business. And I think we could have been better about focusing on what are our core strengths and how do we not be in sort of that new customer set, new capabili…”
Insight
Tolkin: Teams earn long-term OKR planning by delivering on short-term horizons
“The more nuanced answer is you earn the right to set OKRs on longer time horizons by proving you can execute on shorter time horizons.”
Insight
Tolkin: Shipping low-quality MVPs produces false negative product signals
“I don't think you can throw out crap, right? Because the risk is then you have like a negative signal where actually your execution was just bad, right? And that's the reason it didn't work.”
Insight
Tolkin: Judge major product redesigns on weeks five through eight of data
“We're going to look at all the data, but we're not going to make a decision in the first two weeks. We have to have the fortitude, the guts, the gumption to say, we might see patterns in the behavior where behavior is slowly changing over time. And so we actua…”
Insight
Tolkin: A PM's background dictates how they define product success
“In a pithy way, someone that opened door where we're closely with had this phrase, which is you hire your strategy. Right. And so the person you pick to play that role will dictate how that person defines, you know, the success of that product.”
Insight
Tolkin: PM interview tests should measure clarity of thought over tactics
“And I think the Important part here is it can't be so narrowly scoped because the tactics of the job you can learn, how to run a sprint, how to do prioritization, like that, that stuff you can learn. That's not what the test is. The test is the clarity of thou…”
