Disclosure
Wang: SCGE goes long Nvidia and shorts moatless server hardware stocks
“We can go long NVIDIA and then we can short a bunch of the companies that I think don't have the depth of modes that NVIDIA has.”
Disclosure
Wang: Chinese companies have become less transparent over time
“It is, it has been more difficult for us to say invest in Chinese companies. And it's not just the macro, right? It's. It's these companies have been become less transparent with us over time.”
Opinion
Wang: Google faces more threats today than ever before in its history
“I do think there are more threats on Google's business than there have been ever in the company's history.”
Insight
Wang: Only trim stocks when valuations get 18 months ahead of fundamentals
“I tell my team, don't tell me if, you know, ServiceNow is 10% too expensive. If we have a three to five year investment hold period, you know, 10%, if you get six months ahead yourself in terms of the pricing, it's not going to impact your IRR that much. Where…”
Assertion Supported
Wang: Hedge fund crossover 'tourists' have been wiped out of private markets
“Over the last few years, there have been a lot of tourists, as you know, a lot of tourists mostly on the hedge fund side who've dabbled in private markets and they've gotten burned. Those tourists are out of the market. We don't see them anymore.”
Insight
Wang: VC partners dictating public fund investments guarantees failure
“Now, when I speak to other VCP funds that reached out to me over the years to get advice about launching a similar effort They almost never want to give up control. They want to dictate the investing. And I just don't think that's a recipe for success.”
Opinion
Wang: Claiming AI will eliminate software companies is a naive view
“That I hear now that software companies are going away, right? AI is going to write all, all software. And I just think that's a naive view.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: AI generates $15 billion in incremental EBIT for Meta
“We estimate that it's not just delivering revenue. I think it's already delivering about fifteen billion of incremental EBIT, EBIT for Meta, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: The world will ultimately have three to five AI foundation models
“So maybe there's three to five foundation models in the world. It's not going to be 10. It's not going to be 20.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Sequoia considered shutting down its global equities fund in 2016
“And so there's this crucible moment in 2016 where Sequoia decided to part ways with the original PM and actually consider shutting down the business entirely.”
Disclosure
Wang: Only one-third of SCGE's portfolio consists of Sequoia venture companies
“So there is a portion of our business that, our portfolio that is Prior or existing Sequoia portfolio companies, right? That's maybe about a third of the portfolio”
What-if
Wang: SCGE should have trimmed portfolio positions more aggressively in 2022
“I think 2022 was a period where a lot of these stocks got ahead of themselves and we should have, we had to trim, we trimmed a bunch, but we should have trimmed more.”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE is prioritizing public markets over privates due to deal quality
“And so right now, for example, we do not see for SCGE as many opportunities in the private markets And so most of our attention is actually on the public markets.”
Prediction Held up
Wang: Tech IPO market will reopen in late 2024 or 2025
“I do expect the IPO markets to open, say back half of this year into next year.”
Insight
Wang: Tech companies can no longer IPO with high burn rates
“The, you know, the days of rule 40, you're going out at 60 -20, those are gone. You have to be a 30 and 10, 40 and zero kind of growing into a nice profitability curve in order to get public.”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE held Twilio too long, missing out on legendary returns
“So Twilio initially was a very good investment for us and actually ended up being a decent investment overall. It could have been a legendary investment. We held on for too long.”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE takes carry once every three years instead of annually
“We have also a three-year incentive crystallization. And so what that means is most hedge funds, as you probably know, just take carry at the end of each calendar year. We take carry once every three years, and we also vest ourselves over a three year period.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Magnificent Seven tech stocks will continue to thrive in AI
“At least in the initial stages of AI, where your data and distribution are so important, I think the mag seven will continue to do quite well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wang: China's market will recover driven by founder quality
“It has to. I mean, The level of just pure entrepreneurship, the level of just the founder quality, how smart and aggressive they are. It's just remarkable. And I just don't think that goes away.”
Insight
Wang: Preserving optionality is the most expensive mistake young professionals make
“I think that optionality is the most expensive thing you can buy. So both financial options, but also more importantly, life options. So too many young people spend too much effort focused on preserving optionality in lieu of actually making decisions. So I fi…”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE internal employee surveys turned 'downright awful' in 2022
“The initial, I'd say right post COVID, the surveys were very positive. You know, everyone's super happy. You know, everyone's feeling fulfilled. They're doing good work. And then you can see the surveys just getting worse and worse. And then in 20, 22, they're…”
Assertion Supported
Wang: Tech CapEx is unprecedented due to $150B Big Tech cash flow
“You have never seen this level of investment because I think if you roll back to 1999, for example, the, you didn't have this mag seven that was throwing off, you know, one hundred and fifty billion of free cash flow and you can go invest gobs and gobs of mone…”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE allocates 70% of research to themes, 30% to companies
“For us, 70% of our research process is actually up front on the theme, and only 30% on the actual company.”
Disclosure
Wang: SCGE manages $9B across two-thirds public and one-third private investments
“We had fifty million of internal capital. We now manage about nine billion of mostly external LP capital, but that internal capital amount is also now about a billion. The portfolio is about two thirds public and then one third private. And that one third priv…”
