Prediction Markets

“I think we shared in our last earnings call within months of launching it had to hit like a hundred million dollar revenue run rate. It's growing really nice, like over a hundred percent quarter over quarter, something like that.”

“I was really upset when I saw the first, like, female young, or the youngest female self-billionaire was from Prediction Markets.”

“Because it just seems bad for society. Like, no net positive.”

“With pre-IPO, with prediction markets, retail gets access to these markets earlier and earlier.”

“Well, we've talked about this like six times, and it has to be real money. It's not a thing if it's not real money.”

“It's just doing quite a bit of damage to kids in their twenties. Like they're very addicted. They're very addicted to sports gambling.”

“I agree that it's extremely unlikely that a enormous company platform will successfully launch something as avant-garde as a, it's not impossible, but very unlikely.”

“The U.S. Senate unanimously. How rarely do we see something along bipartisan lines barring senators from trading on prediction markets?”

“There was this crazy story where a U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant actually was charged with using classified information around the Maduro capture that he was part of that mission to bet on”

“The reason that the jury thing is, is, is bad is it creates a potentially an incentive for the jury to basically work together and say like, Hey, like we all have to be here for like a month. Like we can at least make some money on it. And then you only need t…”

“If you want to influence public perception and you have enough money, you can bet heavily on something or someone to make it look more popular, and we already have examples of politicians betting on themselves.”

“Six anonymous accounts earned 1.2 million dollars on a prediction market betting for the attack on Iran, and some of those wallets were funded hours before, which suggests that they might have had insider information, and if they had insider information, did t…”

“The stock market, when you invest in a company, you're actually contributing capital to that company in a way that is an important contribution to society. Whereas the prediction market is just a bet.”

“No, I think prediction markets or event contracts, but as I said are a very powerful tool. We're going to go into that at some point ourselves”

“They're the price discovery and truth discovery. They're kind of using price to discovery truth, right? So which is actually a very, which is usually the reverse for what we do. We like information drives trading volumes. So that, so that's a very interesting …”

“One of the reasons why people are moving to prediction markets and moving to what I would describe as the sort of a lottery ticket approach to life. It's a little bit YOLO. Is a function of the inequality that we have in this country.”

“The polls were completely wrong and the markets were so much better at bringing that sort of information, and I think that it's the shining example of why these markets are forced for good, and we need to have them in the US and regulated”

“The interesting point, I think, and I think this is part of why prediction markets are being adopted so, so, so much is people like this idea that if like your edge is proportional to your research, how informed you are, how much time and energy you put into t…”

“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”

“A lot of people are like prediction markets will destroy the news. I think it's way more complimentary. It's like when you're talking about an election, you're going to give your opinion, the market's not going to give you an opinion. You still need the commen…”

“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”

“And if those dimensions, you don't have a good understanding of x one to x n you cannot get a good estimate of y, right? And so you, the paper basically says that you need infinite markets. And prediction markets are this notion of infinite markets, which is l…”

“I think that we do see this a lot with also, well, there's sort of the piece where people use it and that sort of react in real time to certain things, but I think there's some degree of depolarization. And that's what Luana is alluding to. Like, and in some w…”

“Because if you ban it, You're actually heightening the risks that you're trying to prevent, because now that activity is going offshore, right? Like, and where you cannot monitor it or police it or do anything to protect it.”

“We love prediction markets in the states that aren't legal because it gives us a nice complimentary offering.”

“If you offer a market that can be easily manipulated, we're not gonna offer the market, right? So we, you know, we are consciously choosing maybe to be a bit slower and more cautious to make sure that the markets that we do Are legitimate and above board.”

“We're doing one on December 16th of this year. So towards the end of the year, and it's called yes, no. So it's an event on prediction markets and AI.”

“I think gambling like behaviors are socially costly and the value of higher quality information is is, is, is real, but, you know, is it worth that disbenefit of people trading away their money, it's not, you know, it's not so clear to me.”

“The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, Will look like the stock market free Reg FD. And there's nothing we can do except choose not to bet it. Because otherwise, what you're going to have are a ton of sharps taki…”

“The use of inside information gets to the truth faster. And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds. And so if people make money along the way, and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwis…”

“It won't be a big number in terms of our overall this year. But I do expect to see a big growth You know, I expect to see a big jump in growth on the Superbowl for that.”

“If you look at it, it's not like, even by volume, the prediction markets, or any more market share, if you put everything together any more share, I should say, than you know, some of the other competitors that we have that are not number one and number two in…”

“There's no way you can have a prediction market without insider information. It's even harder to keep that free of insider trading than it is the stock market. And there are, Fewer regulations.”

“The principles can drive the outcomes. And if you're doing, and as these prediction markets rise, you're going to see that happen.”

“One of the big use cases of prediction markets is not just as a trading product, but almost as a news media product, the source of information.”

“You can trade and hedge fire risk. You can hedge hurricane risk. And if you think about the process of like insuring yourself against a fire or a hurricane, It can be very expensive and it's cumbersome. You have to talk to a broker on the phone and the contrac…”

“Mostly different act events to bet on. And I think events affect companies, but they're two different things. So I would say it'll be something to speculate on. But, and it'd be something that smart people may use as a hedging device against owning an equity. …”

“They're just not gonna sit here and say the billion dollars that we get in tax revenue on sports betting, we're just happy to give that up. Like, they're not.”

“I think we've already seen some of the dangers of sports gambling and how it's really destroying people's lives. And I think that you're going to see that again here.”

“You cannot go fully vertical because then your product offering is not diverse and interesting enough, and you cannot go fully wide because then you don't concentrate enough liquidity in specific events.”

“Like who would have guessed two years ago that prediction markets would be our fastest growing business.”

“And prediction markets solve that, which is why I think for traders, it has the potential to become a really big market. And for mass market consumers, it could be a better source of news and forecasting.”

“Well, prediction markets actually Take advantage of all of these sort of, like, forces to consolidate into a more accurate forecast. That's not a guess. It's not a poll. It's, you know, a price formed by people with real skin in the game.”

“And this is a much more efficient truth machine than, like, the central intelligence agency, if you think about it.”

“And I think that's the best argument for doing prediction markets inside a regulated framework, because if we don't they could go offshore much like a lot of the crypto business.”

“Just to make a prediction and which is in theme in keeping with the idea here. I predict that any re-regulation won't happen because of any new administration. I think the real challenge to sports betting like this will actually be the leagues themselves wrest…”

“Everything is becoming a market, and you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets, you'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this wa…”

“All these other apps now do sports betting, but they call it prediction markets, and prediction markets are legal, so Robinhood now has sports betting in its app, even though it's not not a casino. You could just go in Robinhood right now and bet on sports.”

“As this kind of a behavior proliferates, we expect that the nature of media itself is going to change because a lot of media is now going to be derived from the prediction markets.”

“So for example, we have a prediction market live on the platform now about which companies are going to IPO.”

“Options are, I think, a great reflection of a prediction market. The difference, though, is that in a prediction market, it's a binary yes, no, versus an option market, you're laying, you're layering in your bets across multiple price points and different dura…”

“Prediction markets are federally regulated now, and we're going to be offering that soon across the country.”

“I think it's a great category because it's entertainment. You already have evidence from several of these that the consumer eyeballs, you know, are really there. You have like a well-driven business model for some of these that really works for other industrie…”

“Some people consider it gambling, so you have the whole, like, is it gambling or is it investing controversy that we're continuing to contend with? It's sort of the, Bane of our existence to some degree. I mean, I believe it's investing.”

“But I think that it's going to be very difficult for traditional sports betting platforms to compete with prediction markets at scale.”

“The U.S. Treasury market is literally a prediction market because U.S. Treasuries at any point in the curve are the ensemble prediction of what the Fed is expected to do over the course of any given time. So a five-year Treasury is what the next five years of …”

“Twitter is like the best way to get Aggregate, like, use the wisdom of the crowds for where the news, like, the past for what just happened or what happened, and prediction markets are the way to use the wisdom of the crowds for what is going to happen.”

“I think it could just look like the stock market, maybe even bigger.”

“If we wanted this to be, to get, be on a certain set of scale without regulators, like shutting it down or like having it has to be regulated. And two is like any financial market, you have to be able to work with the brokers, like the Schwab's of the world, t…”

“The difference is actually about whether the underlying thing, like the thing that you're actually engaging in, has actually some sort of economic, social, cultural relevance outside of the act of placing the trade, right? Like, and so, so it's like, is it art…”