prediction markets

also referred to as: prediction market

9 statements across 5 episodes · 1 bullish · 6 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2025 by Alex Kantrowitz · across every show →

Everything said about prediction markets, oldest first

Dec 8, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: Prediction markets will cause life-destroying harm comparable to sports gambling
“I think we've already seen some of the dangers of sports gambling and how it's really destroying people's lives. And I think that you're going to see that again here.”
Alex Kantrowitz Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 56:38 AI Device Wars Heat Up, RIP Metaverse?, Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers
Jan 12, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz predicts growing prediction markets will increasingly drive real-world outcomes.
“The principles can drive the outcomes. And if you're doing, and as these prediction markets rise, you're going to see that happen.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 47:39 Claude Code’s Shining Moment, ChatGPT for Healthcare, End Of Busywork?
Jan 12, 2026 negative
Insight
Kantrowitz argues prediction markets cannot operate without insider trading.
“There's no way you can have a prediction market without insider information. It's even harder to keep that free of insider trading than it is the stock market. And there are, Fewer regulations.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 44:16 Claude Code’s Shining Moment, ChatGPT for Healthcare, End Of Busywork?
Mar 18, 2026
Insight
Sorkin: Prediction market speculation is driven by US wealth inequality
“One of the reasons why people are moving to prediction markets and moving to what I would describe as the sort of a lottery ticket approach to life. It's a little bit YOLO. Is a function of the inequality that we have in this country.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin Mar 18, 2026 ▶ 43:37 Are We Screwed If AI Works? — With Andrew Ross Sorkin
Apr 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Véliz: Politicians Bet on Themselves to Manipulate Prediction Markets
“If you want to influence public perception and you have enough money, you can bet heavily on something or someone to make it look more popular, and we already have examples of politicians betting on themselves.”
Carissa Véliz Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 42:19 Are We Too Obsessed With AI Predictions? — With Carissa Véliz
Apr 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Véliz: Anonymous Wallets Made $1.2M Betting on Iran Attack
“Six anonymous accounts earned 1.2 million dollars on a prediction market betting for the attack on Iran, and some of those wallets were funded hours before, which suggests that they might have had insider information, and if they had insider information, did t…”
Carissa Véliz Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 43:26 Are We Too Obsessed With AI Predictions? — With Carissa Véliz
Apr 22, 2026 negative
Opinion
Véliz: Prediction Markets Provide No Productive Capital Unlike Stock Markets
“The stock market, when you invest in a company, you're actually contributing capital to that company in a way that is an important contribution to society. Whereas the prediction market is just a bet.”
Carissa Véliz Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 45:26 Are We Too Obsessed With AI Predictions? — With Carissa Véliz
May 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
U.S. Senate unanimously votes to bar senators from prediction market trading
“The U.S. Senate unanimously. How rarely do we see something along bipartisan lines barring senators from trading on prediction markets?”
Ranjan Roy May 4, 2026 ▶ 50:17 OpenAI’s User Growth Miss, Musk vs. Altman In Court, Prediction Market Ban
May 4, 2026
Assertion Supported
Army Master Sergeant charged for betting on mission using classified intel
“There was this crazy story where a U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant actually was charged with using classified information around the Maduro capture that he was part of that mission to bet on”
Ranjan Roy May 4, 2026 ▶ 50:43 OpenAI’s User Growth Miss, Musk vs. Altman In Court, Prediction Market Ban
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