prediction markets
2 statements across 2 episodes · 2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · across every show →
Everything said about prediction markets, oldest first
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: Prediction markets have proven well-calibrated across hundreds of forecasts
“Prediction markets have generated hundreds of forecasts over many years, and they've proven to be pretty darn well calibrated, which is another way of saying when they say 75% probability of something happening, things happen about 75% of the time. And they do…”