The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Shane Parrish (7)Josh Wolfe (3)Brad Jacobs (3)Pedro Domingos (2)Joe Liemandt (2)Dr. David Sinclair (2)Balaji Srinivasan (2)Vlad Tenev (1)Scott Page (1)Reed Hastings (1)Kunal Shah (1)John Bragg (1)
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Next up (15)
109 days left 2026-12-31
Liemandt: Alpha's Time Back Engine Will Release Globally in 2026
“That's Time Back, our Time Back engine, that's 10, and today it's at Alpha, you know, in 20, 26, everybody in the world's gonna be able to access it. And so everybody who wants to build a school based on Time Back is gonna be able to next year.”
1058 days left 2029-08-06
Howey predicts self-driving robotaxis will reduce car ownership to 10%
“And car ownership is going to become a thing that only a minority of humans even own a car because of the way they'll even they'll never be parked really though because every car that can drive itself is a robot, basically, that can go earn money by running Ub…”
1323 days left 2030-04-28
1491 days left 2030-10-13
Chamath: US will spend tens of trillions on recovery within a decade
“Whether you call it the Green New Deal on the left or the infrastructure bill on the right, we are going to spend in the next decade tens of trillions of dollars to try to dig ourselves out of this unemployment and GDP hole that has been exacerbated by the cor…”
1589 days left 2031-01-19
1800 days left 2031-08-18
1812 days left 2031-08-30
2031 days left 2032-04-05
Balaji Srinivasan: Web3 services rivaling US tech giants will emerge in India
“I think you're going to see a whole parallel set of services arise that are the peers of the American tech companies, but in web three in India over the next 10 years, I think it's going to be one of the least anticipated things that's going to happen”
3080 days left 2035-02-18
3192 days left 2035-06-10
3473 days left 2036-03-17
5223 days left 2040-12-31
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
7139 days left 2046-03-31
Liemandt: Physical schools will still exist in 20 years
“In 20 years, you know, predict the future, what's going to be the same in 20 years? Parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. In the building are gonna be other kids and adults, right? There's, we're not, you're not getting rid of school. School …”
11528 days left 2058-04-06
Closed calls (21) the full record →
Petersen predicts U.S. crackdown on foreign shell companies importing goods directly
“I think they're going to crack down on that. I think they're going to shut down that.”
Poilievre: Liberal re-election will drive investment to US and halt pipeline construction
“I think if we go, if the liberals are reelected, you will see a continued outpour of investment to the United States. You will see that we do not build LNG plants, pipelines, or any other self-reliance projects that will break our dependence on America.”
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Rockefeller Predicted Standard Oil Would Someday Refine All Oil
“The Standard Oil Company will someday refine all of the oil and make all of the barrels.”
Dr. Z: Mars Sample Return spacecraft targeted to launch in 2026 and 2027
“And so basically that, that we're going to collect those samples in 26 or 27 our next two spacecraft will take off. One in 26, one in 27, we think, today.”
Sinclair: Recommended longevity habits add 14 to 15 years of life
“Just by doing the things that I'm talking about today, you'll get an extra 14, 15 years on average.”
Danny Meyer: Restaurant prices will rise as tipped wages disappear
“And as cities, states, and now the entire country move to a higher minimum wage, and then perhaps one day, one wage for everybody, as opposed to a second-tier For tipped employees, which I believe is not gonna last forever. Can't. You're gonna start to see res…”
Flatt: Short-Term Interest Rates Will Fall Another 50 to 100 Basis Points
“I'm sure we're going to see another few hundred, a few, another 50, a hundred base points off of the short rates, and we're going to settle into just a regular range of rates.”
Dixon: By 2025 remote conversations will probably occur in VR
“I think, you know, in 10 years, we'd be probably having this conversation in virtual reality, and we'd be, you know, looking at each other across the room, and it would feel like we're in the same room.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts the world's first trillionaire will be in climate change
“The world's first trillionaire will be somebody in climate change.”
Wolfe: Major LLM providers will offer enterprise document search within six months
“Why don't we wait six months? Because this is going to be available from all of the major LLM providers today that want to get the enterprise accounts.”
Calacanis predicts Masayoshi Son will deliver very good returns for LPs
“Masayoshi-san is the last person in, and I think he'll ultimately wind up looking smart, because he picked some good companies, and I think he'll ultimately wind up having a very good return for his LPs”
China will build a 'Great Biowall' for continuous pathogen surveillance
“There's a great wall of China, the great firewall, and I think we're going to see the great By the wall of China, okay, where, you know, they'll be sequencing and testing the heck out of everybody, scanning the country constantly to see, okay, is a virus risin…”
International travel will require real-time biological screening before boarding
“Now that's going to go to real time, meaning, you know, within a day or an hour before you get on the flight, you know, imagine a next generation TSA that was actually competent, you know, in, in, in countries around the world, which Needs your biological info…”
Eyal: Facebook will not block feed-eradicating browser extensions
“I think the blowback would be so severe if they tried to do something about it that I can't see that on their radar.”
Wolfe: Users will soon control ambient technology using neural micro-gesture wristbands
“What that implies is that you will wear something akin to a bracelet or a wristwatch, and you will be able to gesture like Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice to flick your fingers to turn on the lights, to swipe like you would swipe in three dimensional, three Rai…”
Sinclair: Team May Reverse Aging in Humans Within 18 Months
“In Canada, we have a non-human primate study for safety to see how that goes, and within the next 18 months, if all goes well, we will be reversing aging in a human, if all goes well.”
Streaming will eventually cost consumers exactly as much as their old cable bundles
“What's going to happen is people are going to end up paying about the same amount of money every month they do for content today.
There should be paying different people.
And I think that that's going to be the case.
This idea that there's going to be this, yo…”
Srinivasan: COVID-19 Total Hospitalizations and Deaths Will Exceed Ebola Due to Scale
“It's nowhere near as lethal as Ebola, but its scale is likely to be much higher than Ebola.
And so the total number of people hospitalized or killed by it may be much larger.”
Ben Thompson predicts music streaming will soon surpass CD-era peak revenues
“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”