Prediction Held up
Marks: The ongoing U.S. recovery will become the longest in history
“So my guess is that this recovery will set a record for the longest recovery in history. Because of the slowness and the absence of excesses.”
Opinion
Marks: Accommodating Fed policy and Greenspan put contributed to GFC
“I think that in, in, in some ways, the Fed contributed to the global financial crisis by being too accommodating. And, you know I think that Greenspan was so accommodating of the need of the economy to grow that And kind of a cheerleader that he permitted the …”
Opinion
Marks: 'Fair share' in taxation is rhetoric for higher taxes
“There is no such thing as a fair share. And the only question is who determines the fair share? And my feeling is that the fair share is by definition, when people say we're trying to get the rich to pay their fair share, what they mean is we're trying to get …”
Assertion Supported
Marks: US Consumers, Not Chinese Exporters, Pay US Import Tariffs
“Chinese don't pay tariffs. Tariffs are paid by consumers of goods. We have collected billions in tariffs from US consumers of Chinese goods.”
Opinion
Howard Marks: Free Enterprise Requires Losers; Socialism Yields Only Losers
“You have to have losers and winners in the free enterprise system. If you don't want winners and losers, switch to the socialist system or communist system in which they in which they were only losers.”
Assertion Supported
Marks: US lost 24M jobs to productivity gains versus 3M to China
“The point is that we have probably lost twenty-four million jobs to increasing productivity over the last 40 years compared to three million that went to China. And it shows you the scope of the problem and the location of the problem. The problem is not China…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Marks: AI developers will thrive while displaced workers face dystopian hardship
“The people who can develop the personless bookstore or the robot will be in great demand, and the people who can create artificial intelligence will be in great demand and very valuable, and they'll all live in a small community just south of San Francisco. An…”
Insight
Marks: Risk Is Probability of Bad Outcomes, Not Volatility
“Now, I don't think volatility is risk. I think risk is the probability of bad outcomes.”
Insight
Marks: Cycles occur because human psychology drives upside excesses and downside overcorrections
“Cycles happen because people, not electrons, but people commit excesses to the upside, usually out of enthusiasm. Which then have to be corrected, and those corrections overshoot to the downside.”
Insight
Howard Marks: Luck is real, important, and inherently unfair
“I read a piece quoted some Silicon Valley guy who says, success is never accidental. You make your own luck. And I don't agree. I think luck is a real thing and it's important and it's inherently unfair, but that's life.”
Insight
Marks: Innate intelligence is luck, not personal merit
“What did you do to deserve, develop, or nurture your IQ? You were born with a brain that works better than others. That's luck. And it's totally, it's not merit.”
Opinion
Marks: Universal basic income feeds physical needs but lacks work's psychological benefits
“Universal basic income will not give those benefits. It'll only feed the physical needs.”
Insight
Marks: Everything important in investing is counterintuitive and obvious ideas are wrong
“Everything that's important in investing is counterintuitive. And everything that's obvious is wrong.”
Insight
Marks: Outperformance requires daring to be different, wrong, and look wrong
“The question is, do you dare to be different Because clearly by, you have to diverge from the pack is required if you're going to be a superior. In anything. And number two, do you dare to be wrong? Number three, do you dare to be look wrong? Do you dare to lo…”
Insight
Howard Marks: Investors shouldn't self-flagellate over mistakes if process was sound
“Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future. No baseball player expects to bat a thousand. Investors shouldn't. Which means they shouldn't get down on themselves if they make a mistake as long as they re-exami…”
Insight
Marks: Investor psychology swings between perfection and total collapse
“In the real world, things fluctuate by, between pretty good and not so hot. But in the investment world, investors go from, you know, perfect to no chance of survival in their psychology.”
Disclosure
Marks: Oaktree invested $10 billion across final 15 weeks of 2008
“For the last 15 weeks of oh eight, we invested an average of six hundred and fifty million a week for a total of ten billion, and the financial world did not melt down.”
Insight
Marks: Organizations that second-guess mistakes make investors mistake-averse
“And if you have a partner or an organization which second guesses your mistakes, then you become mistake averse.”
Assertion Supported
Marks: Oaktree achieved 16-17% distressed debt returns over 30 years without leverage
“And, you know, we have a record in distressed debt of, I think, 16 or 17% a year for 30 years without using any leverage.”
Insight
Marks: Institutional Investors Risk Firing for Losses Over Missed Gains
“And more, an investor who works for somebody else is more likely to get fired for losing money than for missing out on opportunities.”
Insight
Marks: Investors Cannot Rely Solely on Expected Value Calculations
“And so we can't just invest on the basis of the probability distribution and the expected value. We also have to take our own tolerances and predilections into account.”
Disclosure
Marks: Howard Marks no longer makes active investment decisions at Oaktree
“I'm not reading at this point to become a better investor. I'm not making that many investment around this decisions around here. I'm really just trying to lead the organization, the people in the culture and relate to the clients and write and speak and that …”
Insight
Howard Marks: Insulating children from mistakes leaves them vulnerable later
“Your kids will make mistakes, hopefully not lethal ones, and insulating them from making mistakes is not doing them a favor, because if they make their first mistake at five, And they improve their decision-making process, and they learn that mistakes don't ki…”
Insight
Marks: Unlike regular consumers, Wall Street investors buy more as prices rise
“Now, in most walks of life, people buy more when the prices go down during sales. On Wall Street, they buy more when the prices rise.”
Howard Marks