Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from the Knowledge Project: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

3,890 insights1,976 assertions686 opinions629 disclosures295 predictions41 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Supported
Brockman: Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I Agreed OpenAI Needed For-Profit Structure
“Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed. That the only path forward for OpenAI, the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI of some form. And so we were committed to that direction, and that is something that we kne…”
Greg Brockman Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 5:48 Ai Goes Parabolic | OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman
Opinion
Wolfe: Tesla got away with accounting fraud on warranty reserves
“And so, for me with Tesla, I think that they got away with accounting fraud. On warranty reserves and a whole bunch of other things. I think there was a lot of prestidigitation and magic of look over here while we're doing this. And today it doesn't matter bec…”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 37:50 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brockman: OpenAI board gave zero explanation when firing Altman and removing Brockman
“I was told that the board has decided That Sam would be removed, and effectively the message that I got was the same messaging that was in the public post, and I asked if I could have any more information. I was told no, not right now, and I pressed on that ma…”
Greg Brockman Apr 22, 2026 ▶ 16:08 Ai Goes Parabolic | OpenAI Co-Founder Greg Brockman
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Poilievre: Mark Carney holds 90% of assets in US, dodges Canadian taxes
“Here's Mark Carney, the guy who moved his corporate headquarters to the US, who has 90% of his assets in the US who You know, he, Carney dodges his taxes in Canada by putting his, putting them in the Caribbean.”
Pierre Poilievre Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 24:37 Pierre Poilievre on the Role of Government, Freedom, and Affordability
Opinion
School Psychology Staff Function Exactly Like Corporate DEI Departments
“Because the psych staffs are like the DEI staffs of an organ, of a corporation. That's what the psych staff now is at a school. They effectively run the schools. They pass judgment on everything. They control what a teacher can assign. What kind of test a teac…”
Abigail Shrier May 21, 2024 ▶ 1:13:44 Abigail Shrier: Why the Kids Aren’t Alright
Opinion
Johnson: Suicidal ideation in severe depression is a rational and reasonable response
“When people feel suicidal, I am deeply empathetic. It is rational to want to kill oneself. It's reasonable.”
Bryan Johnson Feb 20, 2024 ▶ 9:22 Bryan Johnson: Five Habits for Longer Living

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Cialdini: Cuban Missile Crisis Ended via Secret Reciprocal Missile Trade
“It turns out that there was a secret deal that was made between Kennedy and Khrushchev. It was a reciprocal concessions deal. Kennedy said, if you will remove your missiles from Cuba, we'll remove ours from Turkey that are pointed at you.”
Robert Cialdini Oct 19, 2021 ▶ 17:50 #122 Robert Cialdini - The Principles of Persuasion
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dr. Z: Mars Sample Return spacecraft targeted to launch in 2026 and 2027
“And so basically that, that we're going to collect those samples in 26 or 27 our next two spacecraft will take off. One in 26, one in 27, we think, today.”
Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 30:07 #108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics
Assertion Supported
Katharine Graham Became the First Female Fortune 500 CEO
“That she would become the first woman CEO of a Fortune 500 company.”
Shane Parrish Jul 29, 2025 ▶ 20:25 Katharine Graham: The Woman Who Took Down a President [Outliers]
Assertion Contradicted
Maples: PayPal mafia members were not established in tech before PayPal
“So, for example, if you look at the PayPal mafia, none of them were established in tech before they joined PayPal.”
Mike Maples Jr. Mar 3, 2020 ▶ 1:07:03 #77 Mike Maples: Living in the Future

Open predictions the full timeline →

109days Liemandt: Alpha's Time Back Engine Will Release Globally in 2026 Joe Liemandt · prediction date: 2026-12-31 1058days Howey predicts self-driving robotaxis will reduce car ownership to 10% Hugh Howey · prediction date: 2029-08-06 1323days Ackman: Pershing Square will eventually hold 100% of capital in public vehicle Bill Ackman · prediction date: 2030-04-28 1491days Chamath: US will spend tens of trillions on recovery within a decade Chamath Palihapitiya · prediction date: 2030-10-13

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Dr. Emily Balcetis 2 18 12 0 0 100%
Greg Brockman 1 39 9 0 0 100%
Brad Jacobs 3 62 7 0 0 100%
Greg Walton 1 15 7 0 0 100%
Steven Strogatz 1 16 7 0 0 100%
Benedict Evans 1 28 6 0 0 100%
Daniel Kahneman 3 58 6 0 0 100%
Michael Mauboussin 2 35 6 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“I love M&A as a way to create value for shareholders because I don't know of another way on a risk adjusted basis on a certainty level that Is more likely to create massive shareholder value than…”

“It is to be remembered that oftentimes the most difficult competition comes not from the strong, intelligent, conservative competitor, but from the man who is holding on by the eyelids, is ignorant of…”

“he said you basically have to live the life that you want your kids to live, and so if you want your kids to grow up with a middle-class life, you can't live in a mansion and then force a middle-class…”

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