Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Jacobs: QXO will reach $50 billion by capturing 6% of distribution market
“I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dollar size, I can take six percent of that through acquisition and through organic growth. I can get to fifty billion dollars.”
Opinion
Jacobs: Most Fortune 500 board meetings are scripted wastes of time
“Most Fortune, 500 company Board members, board meetings, are kind of, they're very scripted, and they sometimes even rehearsed, and there's a careful It's a story that's being told by management, and it's done by PowerPoint, it's done by rehearsed presentation…”
Disclosure
Jacobs only hires 'raw capitalists' who are absolutely motivated by money
“I want my company, people who are absolutely motivated by money, who are raw capitalists, who are people who want to make money for themselves and their families, and that we can figure out a way that by being part of our company, they can help us make money f…”
Opinion
Jacobs: Most Fortune 500 board meetings are scripted wastes of time
“Most Fortune 500 company board members, board meetings, are kind of, they're very scripted, and sometimes they even rehearse. And there's a careful It's a story that's being told by management, and it's done by PowerPoint, it's done by rehearsed presentations …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jacobs: Kurzweil is probably right that human-technology merger will create new species
“Ray predicts a singularity whereby technology becomes more intelligent, more capable than humans, and we merge with technology, that we use so much technology in our own bodies, with wearables, and nanobots, and so forth, that, and AI, and outsourcing our memo…”
Insight
Jacobs: Sensible M&A creates massive shareholder value with unmatched certainty
“I love M&A as a way to create value for shareholders because I don't know of another way on a risk adjusted basis on a certainty level that Is more likely to create massive shareholder value than doing sensible M&A.”
Opinion
Jacobs: Middle-market PE rollups create unintegrated messes for multiple expansion
“You see a lot of these middle market private equity firms do that. They roll up these small companies. They're doing five, 10, twenty million dollars EBITDA each, and they bat, they just buy a bunch of them, and now they're up to a hundred million or two hundr…”
Disclosure
Jacobs structures executive equity to double-vest above the 85th percentile
“If our shareholder returns are less than 55% or so, I don't want it to vest. If it's 65%, it vests some. If it's 75%, it vests more. If it, if it's 85%, 90%, 95%, I want it to, I want them to make, I want it to double vest.”
Insight
Jacobs: Getting the major trend right overrides operational mistakes in business
“In business, in the business world, you've got to get the major trend right. You've got to get the major trend right. And as my main business mentor, may he rest in peace, Ludwig Jesselson used to say, you can mess up a lot of things, but if you get the main t…”
Opinion
Jacobs: 99% of building products distribution companies are 20 years behind in tech
“I found a company, an industry that's got 20,000 companies, and there's about six or seven that are doing really cool things in technology. And that's pretty much it. And I hate to say that so negatively, but I think that's an objective assessment of it. I thi…”
Insight
Jacobs: Catching the main trend matters more in business than operational perfection
“In business, in the business world, you've got to get the major trend right. You've got to get the major trend right. And as my main business mentor, may he rest in peace, Ludwig Jesselson used to say, you can mess up a lot of things, but if you get the main t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paribas gave Jacobs's early oil trading business a $1B credit line
“I deposited it with Banque Paribas, now it's BNP Paribas, back then it was Paribas, and they gave me a billion dollar line of credit, and I swung for the fences. I used sometimes up to nine hundred and ninety million dollars of that line of credit, doing count…”
Insight
Jacobs: Capital cost arbitrage and operational improvements drive M&A value
“The biggest lever, the biggest component is the differential between what I raise capital at due to my relationships with mostly institutional investors and because of the track record and what I can deploy that at on doing acquisitions. The second biggest lev…”
Opinion
Jacobs: Lengthy diligence memos are bureaucratic CYA exercises nobody important reads
“So, you see some companies when they're negotiated by a company do this very lengthy and detailed and bureaucratic diligence process, and they hire a firm and they write this big huge memo that nobody ever reads, and some wonk reads it but nobody important rea…”
Disclosure
Jacobs: Board members can contact any employee anytime without supervision
“Any board member can reach out to any person in the company anytime they want and ask them anything they want. And there's no supervision or people have to accompany them or none of that.”
Disclosure
Jacobs's companies run budgeting and plan tracking every single day
“We don't do budgeting once in a while. We do budgeting every day. Every single day where we've got our numbers, that our plan is our plan, and where are we tracking versus the plan?”
Insight
Jacobs: FP&A should calibrate manager forecasts against their historical accuracy
“The FP&A people are really good at figuring out who's sandbagging, and who's exaggerated? By that, what I mean by that is you have some managers who just do their personalities or for whatever reason, or maybe they're playing games with their bonus. They want …”
Opinion
Jacobs: Only six or seven building products distribution firms innovate in tech
“I found a company, an industry that's got 20,000 companies, and there's about six or seven that are doing really cool things in technology, and that's pretty much it.”
Insight
Jacobs: Business Initiatives Are Meaningless Talk If They Do Not Enrich Shareholders
“All the things I'm doing of hiring people and putting in technology, all the things we've been talking about for the last couple hours, that all comes down to making money for shareholders. If you're not making money for shareholders, it's just jabber jabber. …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jacobs: QXO will reach $50B by taking 6% market share
“There are this eight hundred billion dollars of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dolla…”
Opinion
Jacobs: Middle-market PE rollups create messy, unintegrated businesses
“You see a lot of these middle market private equity firms do that. They roll up these small companies. They're doing five, 10, twenty million dollars EBITDA each, and they bat, they just buy a bunch of them, and now they're up to a hundred million or two hundr…”
Assertion Supported
Jacobs delivered 32x to 150x returns across five consecutive companies
“So in my companies, we've been fortunate that we've been able to give back 32 times their money in one, and another company is over 150 times. So really, Really large, large, large returns, like over the top, unusually high returns. That wasn't by luck. That w…”
Insight
Jacobs: Shareholder returns are a business's single true report card
“In business, the bottom line, the report card is,
How much money did you generate for your shareholders?
That's the one, it's a, it's an examination with one question on it.
It's how much did you make your stockholders?
How much money did you make for your sto…”
Disclosure
Jacobs: QXO targets one to two turns of EBITDA in debt
“In my new company that I'm forming, QXO, we're going to have, I think our target, a healthy target should be one to two turns of debt.”