The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: Claims that AI will produce bioweapons and kill humanity are idiotic
“Personally, like most people in tech, I think the idea that this is all going to kind of produce bioweapons and take over the world and kill us all is just idiotic. Like, I think it's just a bunch of kind of childish logical fallacies within that.”
Evans: OpenAI's weekly active user metric is deliberately misleading
“Now, OpenAI is doing weekly active users, and Sam Waltman was a social media startup founder. He knows this. It's a bullshit number.”
Evans: Opinions on Sam Altman among former colleagues are unanimously negative
“OpenAI Sam Altman is, I was going to say polarizing figure, but actually opinions about him tend to be fairly unanimous and tend to be fairly negative, like everybody who's ever worked with him quit.”
Evans: Tesla is just another Android phone maker in EV market
“What's happening is that cars are becoming Android with no iPhone, and Tesla is just selling, and in that metaphor, Tesla is just another Android phone maker, and they're competing with the whole Chinese industrial policy.”
Evans: AI's impact equals the iPhone, not the Industrial Revolution
“It's funny, my, I suppose my take on AI, controversial take on AI, rather like my controversial take on crypto is being a centrist, in that it seems to me very clear this is like the biggest thing since the iPhone, but I also think it's only the biggest thing …”
Evans: Kodak was once the best-selling US digital camera vendor
“What actually happens is, once it starts happening, Kodak go all in on digital cameras. At one point, they were the best-selling digital camera vendor in the USA, and if you look at their annual ports at the time, they think this is going to be great, because …”
Evans: Google's biggest AI threat is users reconsidering default search habits
“The very high level threat to Google is that you have this moment of discontinuity in which everybody resets their prize and reconsiders their defaults.”
Evans: Anthropic's safety studies merely prove models follow rogue prompts
“And that's what these anthropic studies are. They're basically, you tell the machine to say a thing, And then it says it. Like, well you haven't proved anything.”
Evans: Most users cannot distinguish Grok, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek in blind tests
“Like it seems to me right now you could do like a double blind test of the same prompt given to Grok, Claude, Gemini Mistral, Deep Seek. Do a double blind test. I bet most people wouldn't be able to tell which is which.”
Evans: LLMs currently lack usage-driven network effects
“There's no apparent equivalent in LLMs right now. There's no reason why the LLMs get better because more people use them.”
Evans: For LLMs, variance is bad and originality receives a lower score
“For an LLM, variance is bad. Originality is, is, is a lower score.”
Evans: Apple risks being 'Microsofted' by cloud-based AI models
“There's this sort of question for Apple around, does this actually change the experience of what a smartphone is, what the ecosystem is? Does it end up kind of getting Microsofted, in the sense that you're going to still, for the time being, you're still going…”
Evans: Meta and Amazon want LLMs to become commoditized infrastructure
“What Meta and Amazon want to do is to make LLM's commodity info that sold at cost. This is why Meta made it open source, because they want to make it commodity info that sold at cost, and they differentiate on top with Meta stuff, with Facebook, social, Instag…”
Evans: Tech will build around AI for 10 to 15 years
“My sort of base case is to say, this is kind of another platform shift, and all the new stuff will be built around this for the next 10 or 15 years, and then there'll be something else.”
Evans: Kodak died from moving into undifferentiated, low-margin commodities
“The other side of it is that film was this high margin product where they had a bunch of unique intellectual property, and digital cameras are a low margin commodity, where they were competing with the entire consumer electronics industry with no differentiati…”
Evans: Google and Meta's proprietary data provides no LLM training moat
“So I'd actually, I think it's actually the opposite, which is that everyone's kind of using the same data. Which is you need such an enormous amount of generalized text that the amount that Google has or that Meta has is not actually enough to move, to be a ki…”
Evans: Regulating AI as a single category is the wrong abstraction level
“Talking about regulating AI as AI is the wrong level of abstraction. It's like saying we're going to regulate databases, or regulate spreadsheets, or regulate cars.”
Evans: AI model memory functions as switching cost, not network effect
“You have that, the OpenAI and people have been doing memory, where it remembers what else you've asked, but that seems more like a switching cost than a network effect, and also it might be easier for you to just ask it what it knows about you and then tell Cl…”
Evans: AI labs do not continuously retrain models on live user queries
“They're not retraining the models all the time with the data. So you don't have that kind of runaway effect as, like, continuous flow and more queries produces, you know, better results.”
Benedict Evans: AI currently has zero value for quantitative analysis
“I think it is presently, and I'm going to get in a binary statement, I think today it has zero value for quantitative analysis.”
Evans: Never publish writing if ChatGPT could have generated it
“Now I can just say, is this what ChatGPT would have said? And if the answer is, this is what ChatGPT would have said, then I don't publish it. Not because people can get it from ChatGPT, but because anyone would have said that.”
Evans: Microsoft's in-house AI models are not very good
“Microsoft has this kind of weird situation in that his own models aren't actually very good, but it's got this very kind of weird relationship with OpenAI.”
Evans: AI inference costs dropped 100x over two years for equivalent outputs
“The price to get a given result has probably come down by two orders of magnitude, but then that's, that was the state of the art two years ago, and now there's a new thing which is more extensive”
Evans: ChatGPT dominates consumer app rankings while competitors lag outside top 50
“ChatGPT is at the top of the outstore rank. Gemini bubbles between, like, 50 and a hundred. None of the others are in the top 100. Same in Google Trends. Same in the usage numbers. Same in the revenue.”
Evans: US Surveys Show Only Roughly 10% of People Use LLMs Daily
“You look at survey data, and I did this slide in the last presentation I did of, like, five different surveys from the US from late last year, earlier this year, and it's all roughly the same. It's like something around 10% Give or take three or four percent o…”
Evans: AI embedded in software UI drives massive adoption over chatbots
“If you were using Salesforce, and you had a button that said, draw off me an email to reply to this client, then that gets massive adoption.”