Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
Scott Page · #55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker · Apr 2, 2019 · at 1:09:55
Scott Page, professor of complex systems, discusses the flaws of linear projections and diminishing marginal returns in national economic development.
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“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the model shows, in order to maintain anything even close to linear growth, you have to innovate like crazy, massive levels of innovation.”
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