Complex systems professor Scott Page explains how preferential attachment creates power law distributions in commercial markets such as book sales.
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Scott Page: Making sense of complex systems requires ensembles of diverse models
“One way you can make sense of complexity is by throwing ensembles of models at both. So one of them may explain 20%, another 15%, and it's not that they add up to a hundred percent that they're explaining everything. In fact, if there's overlap, there's even s…”
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Page: Data-driven success formulas fail when adopted at scale
“And in this book, The Formula, he talks about how these are the lessons for success by looking at tons and tons of data. And it's in some of it is about some of the things we were talking about before with Gawande's. You want to like make sure you use your net…”
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Page: Successful people wrongly assume they won purely due to individual ability
“People who are successful by definition have, are in, have always won and they're in power and they think I'm good because I'm here because I'm good. And they typically are. And they tend to think they're there because they've had a lot of ability. They have a…”
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Page: Decentralized market mechanisms fail on extremely complex problems
“But when it gets super hard, the market's not going to work.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2040
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
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Page: Organizational efficiency pressures erode cognitive diversity in mental models
“When I go work for a firm, or if I'm working in an organization, you know, stock analyst, psychologist, whatever I'm doing, mental models that we use are like local interaction models. Right? I mean, like, it's like, oh, you're using that metal model. It's eas…”