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United States

also referred to as: the united states · u s · us · usa

85 statements across 47 episodes · 19 bullish · 32 bearish · 40 people on the record · first statement Jul 2, 2017 by Marc Garneau · said 1,249 times in 197 episodes since 2015 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Shane Parrish (386), Balaji Srinivasan (83), Adam Robinson (34), Bruce Flatt (29), Ryan Petersen (27), Morgan Housel (26), Rory Sutherland (24), Rey Flemings (23)

tap a year for its mentions
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02550201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
005251050201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 154 mentions in 19 episodes 8 per episode
2025 409 mentions in 49 episodes 8 per episode
2024 90 mentions in 22 episodes 4 per episode
2023 64 mentions in 9 episodes 7 per episode
2022 138 mentions in 17 episodes 8 per episode
2021 69 mentions in 19 episodes 4 per episode
2020 80 mentions in 17 episodes 5 per episode
2019 78 mentions in 14 episodes 6 per episode
2018 102 mentions in 16 episodes 6 per episode
2017 42 mentions in 7 episodes 6 per episode
2016 10 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode
2015 13 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Jul 2, 2017 positive
Disclosure
Garneau: Canada will work with US to harmonize autonomous vehicle regulations
“I work very closely with my counterpart in the United States, who is the Secretary of Transport Of course, it's a new one. Now, her name is Elaine Chao, and I will be working very closely with her to make sure that we harmonize our regulations, because obvious…”
Marc Garneau Jul 2, 2017 ▶ 24:57 #20 Marc Garneau: The Future of Transportation
Jul 2, 2017 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garneau: Canada will align transportation technologies with the US over Europe
“I think that every, Europe has its own solutions based on, on its geography and its densities. I think we will probably have some similarities, but I think we'll probably be more like the United States, because we do interact with them a huge amount, and we ha…”
Marc Garneau Jul 2, 2017 ▶ 39:49 #20 Marc Garneau: The Future of Transportation
Nov 30, 2017
Assertion Supported
US Diabetes Prevalence Has Surged 700% Since the Late 1950s
“In the U.S., and according to the Centers for Disease Control in the U.S., since the late 19 fifties, diabetes prevalence has increased 700%.”
Gary Taubes Nov 30, 2017 ▶ 9:45 #25 Gary Taubes: Is Sugar Slowly Killing Us
Jan 23, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: US per capita daily energy usage dwarfs 100W biological baseline
“If you plot humans on that mass metabolic rate scale humans should use about a hundred watts a day. So, you know, what it takes to sustain your basic metabolic rate, what it takes to sustain you is about what it takes to power of light bulb, right? But it turn…”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 23, 2018 ▶ 46:05 #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi
Feb 21, 2018
Assertion Supported
Half of Emotional Expressions Are Universal; 25% Are Culturally Specific
“Across these five different cultures, China, India, Japan, Korea, the U S really different cultural systems. About 50% of any expression that an individual would admit is this universal expression, you know, where if you get embarrassed, you turn your head awa…”
Dacher Keltner Feb 21, 2018 ▶ 14:59 #29 Dacher Keltner: Survival of the Kindest
Apr 10, 2018 negative
Assertion Supported
Oakley: US ranks dead last in student math ability among 22 OECD nations
“I think we're dead last in the group of 22 top nations in the OECD as far as the math Abilities of our students.”
Barbara Oakley Apr 10, 2018 ▶ 40:59 #31 Barbara Oakley: Learning How to Learn
May 2, 2018 bullish
Opinion
Collison: Silicon Valley is the greatest geographic wealth concentration in history
“Silicon Valley is the sort of, Greatest concentration of wealth creation that I think has ever existed in the US on a per square mile basis, potentially that has existed ever in the world, right?”
Patrick Collison May 2, 2018 ▶ 1:39:45 #32 Patrick Collison: Earning Your Stripes
May 2, 2018 positive
Opinion
Collison: Cheaper land in top US regions would vastly outweigh landowner losses
“I think it is very clear that on a marginal basis, the social returns of cheaper land in the most production, productive region of the country would vastly outweigh the reduction wealth cut, you know, to existing landowners.”
Patrick Collison May 2, 2018 ▶ 1:44:56 #32 Patrick Collison: Earning Your Stripes
Jul 11, 2018
Assertion Contradicted
MacAskill: The poorest people in the US or Canada are in the top 10-15% globally
“Even the very poor in the United States, for example, or Canada, They're still in the richest 10 to 15% of the world's population”
William MacAskill Jul 11, 2018 ▶ 45:30 #36 William MacAskill: The Science of Doing Good
Aug 21, 2018
Insight
Tyler Cowen: Complacent societies cannot survive indefinitely without restoring economic dynamism
“But that said, a country cannot remain complacent forever. And I argue that eventually, you know, something has to give, you need a way to pay the bills, you need dynamism again, and you start seeing disruptions in your complacent life.”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 17:01 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Aug 21, 2018 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: The US is returning to 19th-century polarization and dynamism
“Maybe in some ways we're going back to the America of the late 19th century. With a polarized politics screwy media you know, in some ways, higher levels of violence, and more dynamism, too.”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 18:49 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Aug 21, 2018 negative
Opinion
Cowen: The world is in a G-Zero order beyond US control
“So we now live in a GZERO world. America cannot dictate world affairs.”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 17:40 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Aug 21, 2018 positive
Opinion
Cowen: The US must adopt congestion pricing like London and Singapore
“So London has applied a congestion charge going into the central city. It has worked. Singapore has congestion charges for its roads. They have worked. In this country, we need to do the same thing.”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 21:16 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Dec 11, 2018 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: Palo Alto Has the Highest Teenage Suicide Rate in the US
“Of all the cities in the United States, the one with the highest teenage suicide rate is Palo Alto, which is tax central, right?”
Adam Robinson Dec 11, 2018 ▶ 19:00 #47 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 1)
Dec 26, 2018 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: US Tech Giants Own User Data Unlike European Frameworks
“In the United States, You don't own your data. Google does, or Facebook. It's their corporate data. But in Europe, the individual owns his or her data.”
Adam Robinson Dec 26, 2018 ▶ 18:56 #48 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 2)
Mar 5, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Marks: US Consumers, Not Chinese Exporters, Pay US Import Tariffs
“Chinese don't pay tariffs. Tariffs are paid by consumers of goods. We have collected billions in tariffs from US consumers of Chinese goods.”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 35:37 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Mar 5, 2019
Assertion Supported
Marks: US lost 24M jobs to productivity gains versus 3M to China
“The point is that we have probably lost twenty-four million jobs to increasing productivity over the last 40 years compared to three million that went to China. And it shows you the scope of the problem and the location of the problem. The problem is not China…”
Howard Marks Mar 5, 2019 ▶ 54:44 #53 Howard Marks: Luck, Risk and Avoiding Losers
Apr 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2040
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
Scott Page Apr 2, 2019 ▶ 1:09:55 #55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
May 14, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
One Third of Americans Have Taken Action to Reduce Digital Footprints
“And we've seen about a third of people take some actual significant action to reduce their digital footprint online in some Shape or form.”
Gabriel Weinberg May 14, 2019 ▶ 19:30 Gabriel Weinberg: Practical Steps to Safeguard Your Data and Identity Online
Jul 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Haidt: Overprotection Since the 1990s Deprived Kids of Experiential Learning
“Kids learn best from feedback, from experience. And beginning, especially in the 19 nineties in the United States, and I think perhaps in Canada too we began really overprotecting kids. That is not giving them unsupervised time where they could learn from thei…”
Jonathan Haidt Jul 2, 2019 ▶ 6:54 #61 Jonathan Haidt: When Good Intentions Go Bad
Jul 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Haidt: US teen suicide is up 25% for boys, 70% for girls
“The rates of self-harm, that is kids who are hospitalized because they cut themselves, that, that's for girls only. Boys are not changing on that. That goes way up in the same pattern, and then it's also suicide. The boys' suicide rate in the United States is …”
Jonathan Haidt Jul 2, 2019 ▶ 5:07 #61 Jonathan Haidt: When Good Intentions Go Bad
Jul 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Haidt: Female teen suicide is at record highs across the Anglosphere
“They're having exactly the same gigantic increase in girls' depression, anxiety, and self-harm and suicide in the US and UK and Canada. We're all at record high levels for teenage, for female teenage suicide. So this is throughout the Anglosphere.”
Jonathan Haidt Jul 2, 2019 ▶ 17:09 #61 Jonathan Haidt: When Good Intentions Go Bad
Jul 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Haidt: A child would wait 700,000 years in a car before abduction
“There are about a hundred people, a hundred kids abducted a year in the United States by strangers. At present rates of abduction, you'd have to leave your kid alone in a car in a parking lot for 700,000 years before they would probably be abducted.”
Jonathan Haidt Jul 2, 2019 ▶ 51:27 #61 Jonathan Haidt: When Good Intentions Go Bad
Nov 26, 2019 positive
Opinion
Scott Adams Argues Nations Should Brainwash Children With Sanitized History
“There's a sanitized version that we feed to children in the service of brainwashing them into good citizens, which I think we should probably continue doing.”
Scott Adams Nov 26, 2019 ▶ 31:34 #70 Scott Adams: Avoiding Loserthink
Mar 13, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
The CDC was bottlenecked to running only 12 coronavirus tests per day
“CDC itself was doing 12 tests a day, and that basically meant, you know, for a country of three hundred million people that's testing 12 a day, that's a centralized bottleneck.”
Balaji Srinivasan Mar 13, 2020 ▶ 1:02:57 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19
Mar 13, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
FDA bureaucracy blocked US coronavirus testing throughout February 2020
“Net-net a bureaucratic process inhibited the United States from testing for a critical 30 day-ish period from January to February and gave people a false sense of security that there weren't that many coronavirus cases in the U.S.”
Balaji Srinivasan Mar 13, 2020 ▶ 58:26 #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19
Mar 17, 2020 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Wojcicki: About eight US states outlaw children walking or shopping alone
“I can't tell you which states they're in, because I haven't memorized those states, but I know there's about eight states that have laws that say you can't let your child walk alone. You can't leave your child, you know, in the store by themselves.”
Esther Wojcicki Mar 17, 2020 ▶ 48:56 #79 Esther Wojcicki: The “TRICK” to Raising Successful People
Apr 14, 2020 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2025
Calacanis: US rules will let non-accredited gig workers invest in startups
“We're going to see some regulation in the United States where people are going to be able to be sophisticated investors, In other words, maybe they don't have the accreditation benchmark of whatever it is, a 152 100,000 a year in revenue of, in you know, incom…”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2020 ▶ 53:32 #81 Jason Calacanis: Intelligent Risk
Oct 13, 2020
Opinion
Chamath: Deflationary super cycle started when US ended Apollo program
“In many ways, you know, that this deflationary super cycle really started in 1970 when we basically ended the space program in the early version that saw us get to the moon.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 13, 2020 ▶ 1:17:36 #94 Chamath Palihapitiya: Understanding Yourself
Oct 13, 2020 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Chamath: US will spend tens of trillions on recovery within a decade
“Whether you call it the Green New Deal on the left or the infrastructure bill on the right, we are going to spend in the next decade tens of trillions of dollars to try to dig ourselves out of this unemployment and GDP hole that has been exacerbated by the cor…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 13, 2020 ▶ 32:13 #94 Chamath Palihapitiya: Understanding Yourself
Oct 13, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Chamath: 2020 presidential candidates share identical foreign, monetary, and fiscal policies
“We have an election that is now actually of style and not of substance. Now that doesn't mean it's not important. But substantively the positions on critical matters of foreign policy, domestic monetary and fiscal policy and spending will roughly be plus or mi…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 13, 2020 ▶ 33:07 #94 Chamath Palihapitiya: Understanding Yourself
Apr 6, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Zurbuchen: Avoidable James Webb Space Telescope mistakes cost taxpayers $800 million
“During that time, as well as the year before, this team was so, had such challenges that it was making mistakes that cost the taxpayer of the United States, eight hundred million dollars. The mistakes themselves cost six hundred million dollars because of lack…”
Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 1:00:50 #108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics
Jul 27, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Immelt: Next-generation leaders must maintain manufacturing jobs where they sell
“If I sell in the US, I better have a certain amount of jobs in the US. If I sell in Germany, same thing. If I sell in China, same thing. And my generation didn't have to think that way, but the next generation is going to have to think that way.”
Jeff Immelt Jul 27, 2021 ▶ 37:59 #116 Jeff Immelt: Leadership In A Crisis
Jul 27, 2021 bullish
Opinion
Immelt: US and Canadian manufacturing costs now equal Mexico and China
“My hunch is you could go through product after product and making it in Canada or the U S is probably just about the same as making it in Mexico or China today.”
Jeff Immelt Jul 27, 2021 ▶ 37:33 #116 Jeff Immelt: Leadership In A Crisis
Aug 10, 2021
Assertion Contradicted
Cole: US franchise law prohibits franchisors from mandating retail prices in most cases
“And oh, by the way, and franchising in the United States, in most cases, it is illegal to mandate pricing.”
Kat Cole Aug 10, 2021 ▶ 42:04 #117 Kat Cole: The Power of Possible
Apr 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US is headed toward anarchy rather than totalitarian dictatorship
“For some time, I'd been increasingly concerned that instead of marching into a future of freedom, we were heading into a time of tyranny. I still think something like this may take place in China's sphere of influence. Arguably, it already has. But as the even…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 5:35 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
Apr 5, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Geopolitics by 2040 may center on China vs. international Indians
“I think by 2040, there's a chance, I'm not saying a hundred percent, but I think that if the last century ended up at least the second half was USA versus USSR, right? I think this century may end up as being China versus Indians, not India. I think that's whe…”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 2:20:19 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
Apr 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: US will collapse as an empire like the Soviet Union did
“I think the transition from just like the USSR became Russia, I think the USA after whatever collapse becomes America. That say it's like American culture. It's baseball, it's hot dogs, but it's not global empire, right?”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 2:26:33 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
May 3, 2022 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sinclair: Slowing US Aging by One Year Saves $86 Trillion
“They calculated that the US alone, just by slowing down aging by one year, and making people productive, more productive for one year, would save over the next three decades, 86 trillion dollars, which we waste now on just keeping people alive in a sick state …”
Dr. David Sinclair May 3, 2022 ▶ 4:43 David Sinclair: Reversing the Aging Process
May 3, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Sinclair: Someone in the US breaks a hip every 19 seconds
“Every 19 seconds, in the US at least, someone breaks their hip.”
Dr. David Sinclair May 3, 2022 ▶ 1:18:28 David Sinclair: Reversing the Aging Process
Apr 4, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Karp: European wheat has lower gluten and is less inflammatory than US wheat
“So in Europe, the glyphosate's banned, and the gluten levels are much lower, and the strains of wheat that they typically use Are typically a lot less inflammatory than the ones that they use over here.”
Jason Karp Apr 4, 2023 ▶ 1:02:46 Jason Karp: Live A Healthier Life
Aug 22, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shane Parrish: Multiple U.S. billionaires cannot navigate to their children's schools
“There's more than a couple of billionaires that I'm sure we both know in the United States that couldn't drive their kids to school if they had to, because they don't know where their kids go to school. They don't know how to get there from their house.”
Shane Parrish Aug 22, 2023 ▶ 32:35 Rey Flemings: A Different Definition of Success
Mar 5, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Davis: The US will only repay its debt by devaluing currency through inflation
“Certainly inflation will have to, the only way we can repay the debts that we've incurred is going to be by, you know, devaluing the currency so we can pay back.”
Christopher Davis Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 1:06:33 Chris Davis: Three Generations of Wealth
May 28, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Housel: Real US home prices exceed 2006 housing bubble peak
“And real home prices in the U.S., I'm sure it's the same in Canada. Are much higher today than they were at the peak of the bubble in 2006 on average.”
Morgan Housel May 28, 2024 ▶ 23:06 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich
May 28, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Housel: Real US home prices were flat from 1940s through 1990s
“Robert Schiller of Yale did a lot of analysis on this, tracking U.S. Home prices since the 1800. And in real terms, from probably the 19 forties through the 19 nineties were flat as a pancake on average across the United States.”
Morgan Housel May 28, 2024 ▶ 22:38 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich
May 28, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Housel: Housing unaffordability will echo across demographics for 50-70 years
“So I think the lack of housing affordability has an impact on demographics and having kids over time that will echo for the next 50 or 70 years.”
Morgan Housel May 28, 2024 ▶ 24:38 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich
May 28, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Housel: Lower income brackets experienced the fastest wage growth recently
“Now, just in the last three or four years, there's been a huge growth. The segment of society whose incomes have grown the most tends to be the lower. Incomes. We're still kind of attached to this narrative of the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. But i…”
Morgan Housel May 28, 2024 ▶ 1:11:08 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich
Oct 29, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Mackey: Whole Foods Lamar location achieved highest US sales volume within six months
“In fact, within six months, it became the highest volume natural food store in the entire United States, based on everything I know about the world back then.”
John Mackey Oct 29, 2024 ▶ 7:12 John Mackey: Building Whole Foods
Mar 4, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: US share of foreign graduates fell from 23% to 15%
“And we used to attract something like 23% of all foreign graduates here. That's down to 15%.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:47:13 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
Mar 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: 38% of US AI researchers are from China
“In our own country, in the United States, 38% of researchers in AI are from China.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:47:04 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
Mar 18, 2025
Assertion Supported
Ury: Only 14% of US men are six feet or taller
“In the United States, only 14% of men are six feet or taller.”
Logan Ury Mar 18, 2025 ▶ 16:53 Logan Ury: The Dating Myths You Need to Stop Believing
Apr 1, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flatt: AI and Robotics Will Enable Manufacturing Reshoring to the US
“If you can shrink the labor component many of those plants can come back to where the demand is specifically I'd say the United States.”
Bruce Flatt Apr 1, 2025 ▶ 18:43 Bruce Flatt on Value, Discipline, and Durability
Apr 8, 2025
Assertion Supported
Parrish: Only Five US Cities Had Over 10,000 Residents at Vanderbilt's Birth
“Only five cities held more than 10,000 residents at this time, and the percentage of the nation's four million citizens who lived in towns of at least 2500 people languished in the single digits and would linger there for decades to come.”
Shane Parrish Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 7:58 Cornelius Vanderbilt: The First Tycoon [Outliers]
Apr 8, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Vanderbilt's $11M fortune in 1860 likely made him America's richest citizen
“His estimated wealth of around eleven million likely made him America's richest private citizen.”
Shane Parrish Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 1:01:41 Cornelius Vanderbilt: The First Tycoon [Outliers]
Apr 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Poilievre: Bureaucracy Delays US- and EU-Approved Drugs from Reaching Canada
“We have lots of advanced medications and treatments that are available in the States and EU that are not available yet here because our bureaucracy is so slow.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 1:06:03 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Apr 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Poilievre: Canada receives $15k investment per worker annually versus $28k in US
“In Canada, we get 15,000 dollars of investment per worker per year. In the States, it's 28,000. We're way behind even the OECD average. We get 65 cents of investment per worker For every dollar an OECD average worker gets.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 36:10 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Apr 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Poilievre: Canada generates $53 USD per work hour versus $78 in US
“And so today we generate 53 dollars USD for every hour we work as Canadians. The Americans generate 78 dollars.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 35:30 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Apr 13, 2025 negative
Opinion
Poilievre: Trump Tariffs on Canada Only Strengthen China
“Trump tariffs against Canada actually only strengthen China because they weaken both Canada and the US.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 46:41 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Apr 13, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Poilievre: Canadian building permits rank second slowest in the OECD
“We have the second slowest building permits in the OECD, and it takes us 17 years to get a mine approved, three times longer to get approval for a housing development in Canada versus the UK or the US.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 29:21 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Apr 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Poilievre: Liberal re-election will drive investment to US and halt pipeline construction
“I think if we go, if the liberals are reelected, you will see a continued outpour of investment to the United States. You will see that we do not build LNG plants, pipelines, or any other self-reliance projects that will break our dependence on America.”
Pierre Poilievre Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 12:20 Pierre Poilievre: What I Want to Build (and Break) To Fix Canada
Jun 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Parrish: US truck registrations grew from 215,000 to over one million between 1916 and 1920
“Registered trucks in the United States soared from 215,000 in 1916 to over one million by 1920.”
Shane Parrish Jun 3, 2025 ▶ 55:50 Harvey Firestone: Men and Rubber [Outliers]
Jun 24, 2025
Insight
Nooyi: In the US, Business Data Is Always Available If You Dig
“And a big lesson I learned is that in the United States, don't ever say the data is not available. Say you didn't look hard enough, because the data is available somewhere.”
Indra Nooyi Jun 24, 2025 ▶ 20:11 Former PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi: Lessons from the Top
Jun 24, 2025 positive
Insight
Nooyi: US students had bandwidth for innovation because daily survival was easier
“I was more in awe of them rather than they don't work so hard. It's just that the working hard part was on stuff that Was made easy in the United States.”
Indra Nooyi Jun 24, 2025 ▶ 7:31 Former PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi: Lessons from the Top
Aug 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Petersen: Ocean shipping manifests are public records in nearly 20 countries
“Shipping manifests for ocean freighter public record, and it has a lot of really interesting data on it. The public record in the US, we've since learned in like over almost 20 countries that you can get the shipping manifest data.”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 7:49 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Aug 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Flexport hired roughly 900 U.S. software engineers over 12 months
“I think we added 900 software engineers in 12, in like 12 months. Oh wow. And turned out, they're all in the U.S. Or almost all in the U.S., Seattle mostly. It was like very expensive people.”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 48:52 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Aug 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
U.S. tariffs are causing Flexport customers to halt domestic manufacturing
“I haven't met anyone who said, oh, because of these tariffs, I'm gonna start doing production in the U.S. I've read some headlines on it, and they've done some White House announcements and things, but like, those aren't my customer base. And my customer base …”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 1:08:55 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Aug 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Over $7 billion in eligible U.S. customs duty drawbacks goes unclaimed annually
“And so every year in the United States, seven billion goes unclaimed. And that was pre these new tariffs. So it's presumably much higher.”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 1:17:24 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Aug 5, 2025
Assertion Supported
China-to-US ocean container shipping costs dropped to $600 in 2016
“You could ship a container from China to the U.S. For, our cost was like 600 dollars. Normal long run average about 2000. Today, I didn't check the price this morning, but it's probably four or 5000 right now. And the peak COVID was, you know, famously got to …”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 35:14 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Aug 5, 2025
Disclosure
Flexport utilized bonded warehouses to delay taxes when U.S. tariffs peaked
“So when tariffs were at one 45 on China, we helped a lot of companies move into bonded warehouses because We all predicted that it would come down from there. So you're better off waiting and only enter the goods, only exit them out of the building, but enter …”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 1:10:45 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
Sep 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: US Surveys Show Only Roughly 10% of People Use LLMs Daily
“You look at survey data, and I did this slide in the last presentation I did of, like, five different surveys from the US from late last year, earlier this year, and it's all roughly the same. It's like something around 10% Give or take three or four percent o…”
Benedict Evans Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 34:34 Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
Sep 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Kodak was once the best-selling US digital camera vendor
“What actually happens is, once it starts happening, Kodak go all in on digital cameras. At one point, they were the best-selling digital camera vendor in the USA, and if you look at their annual ports at the time, they think this is going to be great, because …”
Benedict Evans Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 8:55 Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
Oct 28, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Scilipoti: US high-yield bond spreads are near historic tightest levels
“Well, that's the tightest, near the tightest it's ever been, which means that investors are willing to lend money to non-investment grade companies at a spread over what a government bond is at a rate which is the tightest it's been practically in history.”
Anthony Scilipoti Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 21:24 Forensic Account: The Bubble No One is Talking About | Anthony Scilipoti
Dec 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sutherland: Trial Lawyers Heavily Fund US Democrats to Block Tort Reform
“Particularly because there's no tort law reform in the US, and that's partly because, I was told yesterday, trial lawyers are among largest donors to the Democratic Party because they resist any kind of tort law reform.”
Rory Sutherland Dec 9, 2025 ▶ 53:53 How to Think Like a World-Class Marketer | Rory Sutherland
Dec 27, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Poilievre: Canada gave Stellantis $15B while Stellantis cut Canadian jobs
“And we've seen it with the Stellantis deal, where we're in for fifteen billion dollars, and Stellantis is cutting jobs in Canada. Fifteen billion dollars for one company. That works out to almost a thousand dollars for every Canadian family in taxes for a comp…”
Pierre Poilievre Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 26:28 Pierre Poilievre on the Role of Government, Freedom, and Affordability
Dec 27, 2025 positive
Insight
Poilievre: Accessing global markets gives Canada leverage over US trade
“And I think you'd have more leverage in that negotiation if you had done, if we do unblock the other world markets that await us.”
Pierre Poilievre Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 23:17 Pierre Poilievre on the Role of Government, Freedom, and Affordability
Dec 27, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Poilievre: Mark Carney holds 90% of assets in US, dodges Canadian taxes
“Here's Mark Carney, the guy who moved his corporate headquarters to the US, who has 90% of his assets in the US who You know, he, Carney dodges his taxes in Canada by putting his, putting them in the Caribbean.”
Pierre Poilievre Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 24:37 Pierre Poilievre on the Role of Government, Freedom, and Affordability
Jan 20, 2026
What-if
Housel: America's Non-Fascist Great Depression Recovery Was a Top 10% Tail Outcome
“The outcome that we, that actually happened was like a top 10% outcome. It easily could have, if not should have, turned out as it did in much of Europe, where after the Great Depression, the people's response was like, maybe we should give fascism a try. Mayb…”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 1:10:26 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
Jan 20, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Housel: New American Homes Today Are Nearly Triple 1950s Average Size
“The average new house today is almost three times the size of a house in the 19 fifties. Three times.”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 1:23:57 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
Feb 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Ovitz: The US innovation system will outperform Chinese competition
“I am not worried about foreign competition. Yeah, China may have robots that are great, but we got people that are unbelievably smart, and our system just works really well.”
Michael Ovitz Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 44:47 Michael Ovitz: The Psychology of Power
Mar 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Tokenization will lead non-US private investing before entering US
“Tokenization will be the primary vehicle for ex-US investment until we get regulatory clarity and you'll see tokenization of privates seep into the US as well.”
Vlad Tenev Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 1:10:46 The Near Death Experience of RobinHood | Vlad Tenev, Co-Founder
Mar 31, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Liemandt: Multiple US states legally mandate teaching strictly at grade level
“There's actually laws in states, various states, that you must teach at grade level. Like, it's illegal for a teacher not to teach at grade level, right?”
Joe Liemandt Mar 31, 2026 ▶ 25:42 Alpha School: AI and The Future of Education | Joe Liemandt
Mar 31, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Liemandt: Median US Student's Test Score Stagnates From Eighth Grade to Graduation
“The average kid in the US, like on this map score, this NWA map, there's a 300 point scale. If you take, I can't remember exact number but if you take an eighth grader, they will go up one point by senior year. How is that even possible? The median, that's the…”
Joe Liemandt Mar 31, 2026 ▶ 27:53 Alpha School: AI and The Future of Education | Joe Liemandt
Mar 31, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liemandt: US Earnings and Educational Outcomes Are Less Correlated Than Globally
“In the U.S., there's a big disconnect between educational outcomes and your earning potential, which is they're not as tightly correlated. As they are in the rest of the world. Right. They're very tightly correlated in the rest of the world and not in the US.”
Joe Liemandt Mar 31, 2026 ▶ 4:18 Alpha School: AI and The Future of Education | Joe Liemandt
Jun 9, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Gurley: China's open-source AI ecosystem can innovate faster than the US
“Because it's more intense, everyone's chosen to go open source, and that creates a system that, in my mind, is capable of innovating far faster Then the competitive system we have here.”
Bill Gurley Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 15:20 Mental Models That Change How You Think | Bill Gurley
Jul 28, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Parrish: Standard Oil refined 90% of US oil by late 1874
“Fully nine of 10 barrels of oil refined in the United States was now passing through Standard Oil.”
Shane Parrish Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 1:28:52 John D. Rockefeller: The Principles Behind The Greatest Fortune in History
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