Opinion
Adam Robinson claims he knows more about financial markets than anyone living
“I, Adam, know more about financial markets than any other living person.”
Opinion
Robinson: The concept of 'intrinsic value' in fundamental analysis is a fraud
“Intrinsic value is a fraud, and I can demonstrate that. It's a fraud for several reasons. First, I'm using air quotes. What he really meant by intrinsic value is true value. But he knows if he used the phrase true value of something, that people would say, hey…”
Opinion
Robinson: Boys outperform on tests because their unpreparedness breeds psychological resilience
“And boys who tend to be unprepared, more unprepared than girls do better on standardized tests, precisely because when they run into difficulty, they expect it to.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Will Exponentially Exceed Human Intelligence in Hours in New Domains
“Now imagine that computer is unleashed not in the domain of chess, but in other domains. It'll totally recreate everything we know and then go beyond it in hours. So the scary thing with AI is this, that it will become exponentially smarter than we are in minu…”
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: Palo Alto Has the Highest Teenage Suicide Rate in the US
“Of all the cities in the United States, the one with the highest teenage suicide rate is Palo Alto, which is tax central, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinson: Parental Birthplace Eliminated Racial Differences in Test Score Gains
“If your father was born in another country, and your mother was born in the United States, that student improved the same regardless of race. Race dropped out as a factor.”
Insight
Robinson: Assets continue falling when investors claim drops make no sense
“When somebody says it doesn't make any sense that X keeps going lower, Get in the trade. It's got a lot lower to go.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2023
Adam Robinson: Quantum Computing Will Crack Any Encryption in Minutes
“Anything that's encrypted with quantum computing, you'll be able to crack that, whatever the encryption is, in, I don't know, seconds or minutes.”
Insight
Robinson: Liberal arts breadth fails to teach thinking compared to deep mastery
“If you learn a little bit about a lot of things, you'll be able to generalize and kind of think about anything. Well, no, you won't, because you've never learned how to think. At Oxford and Cambridge, the belief is learn one thing really well, and then you can…”
Opinion
Robinson: U.S. schools should focus solely on reading, writing, and math for eight years
“I think U.S. Schools would be much better off if they focused on teaching students simply how to read well and write well and rudimentary mathematics. Get that down for the first eight years. Make sure they're really good at that. And then introduce other A su…”
Opinion
Robinson: Flashcards and rereading notes are totally ineffective for learning
“We, you know, we create flashcards, which are totally ineffective and we keep rereading our notes.”
Insight
Robinson: Changing Thinking Only Has Two Levers—Questions and Inspired Answers
“There are really only two ways you can change someone's thinking. You can either change the questions that person asks, or you can provide them with more inspired answers. Those are really only two levers.”
Insight
Robinson: When Markets Defy Logic, the Prevailing Trend Continues
“When somebody says it doesn't make any sense that X keeps going lower, get in the trade. It's got a lot lower to go.”
Insight
Robinson: Fundamental analysts show hubris expecting unique insights from standard MBA tools
“Every fundamental analyst believes he or she using exactly the same tools that every other and information and information that every other MBA, former MBA student has acquired reading security analysis is going to discover something no one else has discovered…”
Insight
Robinson: Bond traders are right over equity traders 99% of the time
“I would tell you that 19 times out of 20, when those two groups disagree, the bond traders are right and early. They are right and early. When I say 19 times out of 20, really I mean 99 times out of a hundred. If you want to find out when a stock is going to b…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinson: Metal traders haven't miscalled interest rate direction this century
“In fact, in the last 18 years, this century, Metal traders haven't been wrong once about the direction of interest rates, either to the upside or the downside.”
Insight
Robinson: Oil is the hardest commodity to predict due to sovereign trading
“For example, the hardest commodity to predict is oil... And I will tell you that no, there is no consistent leader of those three groups, and I believe the reason for that is that oil is traded by the sovereign nations. So, so the sovereign nations that contro…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinson: 80% of NYC Grade-School Test Score Variance Comes From Socioeconomics
“80% of the variation in, in, in fifth grade math and reading scores was attributable to the socioeconomics of the school, not the teachers.”
Insight
Robinson: Academic Performance Is Inversely Related to Self-Esteem
“In fact, it's academic performance is inversely related to self-esteem.”
Insight
Robinson: Rereading study notes is an ineffective waste of time
“Rereading your notes? Waste of time.”
Disclosure
Robinson processes information and calculates solutions through physical sensations
“But I'm actually not, I'm in my body most of the time, and I process information in my body, even when I'm reading, even when I'm thinking, even when I'm calculating. I kind of feel my way to answers, and I'm able to reason, I mean that literally, reason with …”
Insight
Robinson treats minor intuitive anomalies as major warnings and exits immediately
“Whenever things are a little strange, they're very strange. If something is, seems a little bit off, it's really off, and I don't wait to figure out, to assess the situation. I remove myself from it immediately.”
Insight
Robinson: ChatGPT is purely deductive and incapable of making novel logical leaps
“It doesn't come up with insights. It's a really good deductive analytic machine, but it's not yet capable of making logical leaps that aren't evident from the domain.”
Insight
Robinson: When AI answers everything, human edge is asking better questions
“The key thing in school right now, this is really important, it's the key to the future, it's the key for everything, not just school, is when you've got machines that can answer anything, the edge is Who asks the best questions? That's key.”
