Assertion Not checkable as stated
Teachers Grade Identical Essays a Quarter-Point Higher With Female Names
“The number one positive factor on on your, on the essay was a female name at the top of the paper. It was worth an extra quarter of a grade. A equals four point O, B equals three point O, C equals three point O. It was worth a quarter of a grade. It was worth …”
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: Stephen Hawking Estimated a 95% Chance AI Destroys Humanity
“Stephen Hawking,
Gave mankind a one in 20 shot of surviving AI.
A one in 20 shot.
And you can do the math, that means a 19 and 20 shot, we don't survive.
AI.
That's how serious it is.”
Assertion Supported
Robinson: AlphaZero surpassed all human chess knowledge within four hours
“And in four hours, that program leapfrogged all existing human knowledge of the game, and has a chess rating of, hard to estimate, like, 36, 3700, compared with 3300.”
Opinion
Robinson: Gen Z is more globally homogeneous and label-free than prior generations
“Young people, the younger generation, under 20, Gen Z, the youngest generation, is free from many of the labels that everyone over the age of 25, like male versus female, or Republican versus Democrat, or American versus non-American that bedevil political and…”
Insight
Robinson: Modern Internet Technology Operates as a Confirmation Bias Engine
“And technology is one big confirmation bias engine.”
Insight
Robinson: Tech Platforms Hijack Attention by Heightening Emotional Arousal
“Technology is designed to get us to respond, and the way to do that is to heighten emotions and hijack attention, and it does so with ferocious efficiency, and it's unrelenting.”
Insight
Robinson: Attention should only be focused on tasks or others
“There are only two places your attention should be, either on the task at hand or on others. So if you're feeling any negative emotion you feel, whether it's doubt or fear or frustration or loneliness, it's a sign to redirect your attention.”
Insight
Robinson: Technical analysis suffers from severe confirmation bias across limitless indicator parameters
“The problem with technical analysis is one of confirmation bias. The technical analyst has literally hundreds of technical indicators, and each indicator has literally limitless parameter settings.”
Opinion
Robinson: Lynch's 'One Up on Wall Street' gives retail investors false confidence against pros
“The problem with a book like One Up on Wall Street is it tells the man and woman on the street, you can beat professionals at their game. Well, those professionals are, They're there, twenty-four-seven, thinking about ways to take your lunch money, right?”
Insight
Robinson: Prolonged sideways consolidation transfers assets from weak hands to strong hands
“So the third way prices change is a protracted period of nothing going on. In other words, a stock just moving sideways for months or years. And I'm using air quotes, nothing going on, because something really strong is going on, something really powerful. And…”
Insight
Robinson: Equity traders beat currency traders on FX direction 75% of time
“When Currency traders and equity traders disagree about the direction of currencies. The equity traders are going to be right on the currencies three times out of four.”
Insight
Robinson: Test Score Gains Inversely Correlate With Student Confidence
“Incidentally, and this is important improvement was inversely related to perceived chances of success. Inversely related. So you wanted a kid who said the following, I don't think I'm going to pass the test. That kid improved a lot more than a kid who said, I'…”
Insight
Robinson: The LSAT selects for single-answer pickers over nuanced thinkers
“The LSAT asks you a question. It gives you five choices, and to do well on that test, you need to be able to pick an answer quickly, an answer, not argue for two choices. Which means that the LSAT self-selects For people who are really good at selecting an ans…”
Insight
Robinson: Surprise reveals an incorrect mental model and aids learning
“Surprise is always, what surprise is telling you, Shane, is this, your model of the world is incorrect. Which is fantastic. It's a learning opportunity. That's what surprise is.”
Insight
Robinson: Memory mnemonics reduce to pictures, patterns, stories, or rhymes
“Create a picture, a pattern, a story, or a rhyme out of it. All mnemonics come back to picture, pattern, story, or rhyme, but they don't tell us that.”
Insight
Robinson: Skill acquisition requires breaking down domains and rehearsing sub-skills
“The secret to learning anything is this. Anything. I'm glad you asked that question. Rehearsing. If you want to get good at football, play football. If you want to get good at playing the guitar, play the guitar. If you want to get good at chess, you've got to…”
Insight
Robinson: Attempt practice questions before reading chapters to prime learning
“Try the sample questions at the end of the chapter before you read the chapter. Now, because what that does is it primes you. Now, now all of a sudden, whoa, how would I, there's no way I can answer those questions. Let's, now you're primed as you read the cha…”
Assertion Supported
Adam Robinson: George Soros Senses Market Trouble Through Back Pain
“George Soros famously said that when his back is acting up, That he knows something is wrong in markets.”
Insight
Adam Robinson: Capital preservation is critical because investing mistakes permanently deplete learning capital
“In a chess game, if I lose it, the next round, tomorrow, I'm the same chess player. But investing, if I've lost money today, I have less money tomorrow to invest with. And the problem with a lot of people in investing is that they're, to become a decent invest…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinson: JPMorgan outperforming other banks is a slightly bearish market signal
“JP Morgan's outperforming does tell you something about those who want to look it up. It does tell you something. Sorry, it's slightly bearish, not hugely so. And when it's underperforming, it's slightly good.”
Insight
Robinson: Stupidity is overlooking or dismissing conspicuously crucial information
“So I define stupidity as overlooking or dismissing conspicuously crucial information, and Tim was dismissing it.”
Insight
Robinson: All advice and wisdom are fundamentally warnings
“And it's key, especially for you, Shane, is that all advice is a warning. All wisdom is a warning.”
Assertion Supported
Robinson: AlphaZero defeated top chess engine without losing a single game
“This pro, this computer program played a match against the reigning software, right, 3300. It beat it 72 to 28 in a 100 game match with no losses.”
Assertion Supported
Robinson: Top mathematicians cannot understand computer-generated proofs
“Right now, there are mathematical proofs done by computers that human beings can't understand. The best mathematicians in the world don't understand those proofs, and all they can say is, we can't find a mistake in it. It's probably right, but we're not real s…”
