The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Shane Parrish (7)Josh Wolfe (3)Brad Jacobs (3)Pedro Domingos (2)Joe Liemandt (2)Dr. David Sinclair (2)Balaji Srinivasan (2)Vlad Tenev (1)Scott Page (1)Reed Hastings (1)Kunal Shah (1)John Bragg (1)
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The record (21) every resolved claim →
Petersen predicts U.S. crackdown on foreign shell companies importing goods directly
“I think they're going to crack down on that. I think they're going to shut down that.”
Poilievre: Liberal re-election will drive investment to US and halt pipeline construction
“I think if we go, if the liberals are reelected, you will see a continued outpour of investment to the United States. You will see that we do not build LNG plants, pipelines, or any other self-reliance projects that will break our dependence on America.”
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Rockefeller Predicted Standard Oil Would Someday Refine All Oil
“The Standard Oil Company will someday refine all of the oil and make all of the barrels.”
Dr. Z: Mars Sample Return spacecraft targeted to launch in 2026 and 2027
“And so basically that, that we're going to collect those samples in 26 or 27 our next two spacecraft will take off. One in 26, one in 27, we think, today.”
Sinclair: Recommended longevity habits add 14 to 15 years of life
“Just by doing the things that I'm talking about today, you'll get an extra 14, 15 years on average.”
Danny Meyer: Restaurant prices will rise as tipped wages disappear
“And as cities, states, and now the entire country move to a higher minimum wage, and then perhaps one day, one wage for everybody, as opposed to a second-tier For tipped employees, which I believe is not gonna last forever. Can't. You're gonna start to see res…”
Flatt: Short-Term Interest Rates Will Fall Another 50 to 100 Basis Points
“I'm sure we're going to see another few hundred, a few, another 50, a hundred base points off of the short rates, and we're going to settle into just a regular range of rates.”
Dixon: By 2025 remote conversations will probably occur in VR
“I think, you know, in 10 years, we'd be probably having this conversation in virtual reality, and we'd be, you know, looking at each other across the room, and it would feel like we're in the same room.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts the world's first trillionaire will be in climate change
“The world's first trillionaire will be somebody in climate change.”
Wolfe: Major LLM providers will offer enterprise document search within six months
“Why don't we wait six months? Because this is going to be available from all of the major LLM providers today that want to get the enterprise accounts.”
Calacanis predicts Masayoshi Son will deliver very good returns for LPs
“Masayoshi-san is the last person in, and I think he'll ultimately wind up looking smart, because he picked some good companies, and I think he'll ultimately wind up having a very good return for his LPs”
China will build a 'Great Biowall' for continuous pathogen surveillance
“There's a great wall of China, the great firewall, and I think we're going to see the great By the wall of China, okay, where, you know, they'll be sequencing and testing the heck out of everybody, scanning the country constantly to see, okay, is a virus risin…”
International travel will require real-time biological screening before boarding
“Now that's going to go to real time, meaning, you know, within a day or an hour before you get on the flight, you know, imagine a next generation TSA that was actually competent, you know, in, in, in countries around the world, which Needs your biological info…”
Eyal: Facebook will not block feed-eradicating browser extensions
“I think the blowback would be so severe if they tried to do something about it that I can't see that on their radar.”
Wolfe: Users will soon control ambient technology using neural micro-gesture wristbands
“What that implies is that you will wear something akin to a bracelet or a wristwatch, and you will be able to gesture like Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice to flick your fingers to turn on the lights, to swipe like you would swipe in three dimensional, three Rai…”
Sinclair: Team May Reverse Aging in Humans Within 18 Months
“In Canada, we have a non-human primate study for safety to see how that goes, and within the next 18 months, if all goes well, we will be reversing aging in a human, if all goes well.”
Streaming will eventually cost consumers exactly as much as their old cable bundles
“What's going to happen is people are going to end up paying about the same amount of money every month they do for content today.
There should be paying different people.
And I think that that's going to be the case.
This idea that there's going to be this, yo…”
Srinivasan: COVID-19 Total Hospitalizations and Deaths Will Exceed Ebola Due to Scale
“It's nowhere near as lethal as Ebola, but its scale is likely to be much higher than Ebola.
And so the total number of people hospitalized or killed by it may be much larger.”
Ben Thompson predicts music streaming will soon surpass CD-era peak revenues
“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”