Opinion
Collison: European entrepreneurs need EU AI Act curtailed to boost economies
“Entrepreneurs in Europe can boost tepid economies with new tools, but only if well-intentioned yet counterproductive burdens such as the EU AI Act are curtailed.”
Opinion
Collison: Stablecoins are already the best option for cross-border payments
“Two places that we're seeing tons of interesting stuff is one, any kind of cross-border use case, where if you want to send money to a hundred countries, it's already the case that stablecoin's a much better way to do that than anything else. And that's where …”
Disclosure
Collison: Stripe is building Tempo for scalable AI agent crypto payments
“The second, and this is where Tempo, our new initiative, That you guys were nice enough to work with us on is coming in is very scalable crypto payments, and obviously agents is what we have in mind as we're developing Tempo, where, you know, if you want to pa…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
Opinion
Collison: Critics calling vertical AI startups 'LLM wrappers' miss the point
“Some people have called these startups LLM wrappers. Those people are missing the point. The O-ring model in economics shows that in a process with interdependent tasks, the overall output or productivity is limited by the least effective component, not just i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”
Assertion Supported
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
Insight
Collison: Stablecoins make global-by-default financial services possible
“And this progress is in large part due to stablecoins, where borderlessness allows fintechs to set up infrastructure that works everywhere. Global by default financial services are for the first time a real possibility.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Agents will likely drive most internet transactions soon
“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million, or maybe even more than a billion, transactions a second.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
Opinion
Stablecoin skeptics would not survive long at Stripe, says John Collison
“I don't think they would survive the company very long if someone's walking around like, I don't know, I don't think the stable going thing is going to be a thing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
Opinion
Collison: Small Shopify merchants outperform large retailers in e-commerce experience
“Thanks to Shopify, we are now, I don't think it's hyperbole to say we're living in an inverted world where the very large retailers are worse off in their e-commerce experience. They have, you know, worse systems and lower converting websites than Small busine…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: AI platforms will become the new aggregation layer, disrupting legacy aggregators
“It feels like step one is, that's going to happen with agentic commerce is, I feel like existing aggregators, if just aggregation is their raison d'etre, then they're going to have a lot of, ah, questions that they need to answer, because ChatGPT and the AI ap…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stablecoin checkout is a few years from mass-market adoption
“I think there'll be something similar with stable coins where they'll be offered at the point of checkout way before people Become super familiar with them, but we're probably only a small number of years away from some mass market.”
Opinion
Collison: Silicon Valley over-valorizes unrelated second acts compared to vertical focus
“I think second acts are kind of a bit over-valorized in Silicon Valley somehow, where everyone talks about, oh, we want to do, like, a new AWS is kind of the coolest thing ever, where you do a second thing that is completely unrelated to the first thing, versu…”
Insight
Collison: People cannot be sufficiently optimistic about businesses that truly work
“People, people are not capable of being sufficiently optimistic about a business that really works. They, it just, it blows through all their projections.”
Opinion
Collison: Text LLMs passed Turing test, but voice LLMs are nowhere near
“That's the simpler way of saying what I'm saying is that we have passed the Turing test with text LLMs a long time ago, and we're actually nowhere near that on voice LLMs.”
Insight
Collison: Real-world industry experience is required to discover massive B2B markets
“You talk to university students and often their ideas for companies are pretty half-baked. Yeah, it's find my friends. It's like a college textbook exchange app, you know, but you know, there's like the five apps or whatever. Whereas so frequently what happens…”
Insight
Collison: Investor updates with lots of words and no metrics signal failure
“I feel like investor updates with a lot of words and no metrics.
Oh yeah, those are bad.
Those are bad.
And actually like, no investor updates is fine.
Like you didn't have to send me.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Yeah, no with either very good or very bad.
Yeah.
met…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stripe processes $1.4 trillion in 2024 payment volume, up 38%
“Businesses on Stripe generated 1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from the prior year and reaching a scale equivalent to around 1.3% of global GDP.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Collison: 2025 AI agent startup launches on Stripe will eclipse 2024's 700+
“More than 700 AI agent startups launched on Stripe last year, a figure that we expect will be substantially eclipsed by the total in 2025.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Collison: Stripe reached $1.9T in volume in 2025, up 34%
“Last year, businesses running on Stripe generated 1.9 trillion in total volume, up 34% from 24, an equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP.”