The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Casey Handmer (6)Scott Wu (2)Reiner Pope (2)Evan Spiegel (2)Dan Sundheim (2)Ben Thompson (2)Zach Abrams (1)Sundar Pichai (1)Sam Bowman (1)RJ Scaringe (1)Mati Staniszewski (1)Kyle Vogt (1)
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Next up (10)
572 days left 2028-04-07
1079 days left 2029-08-27
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Staniszewski: Advanced voice AI will reach cars via cloud in 2026
“I think this year it should be in the automotive
Site two, or some of the applications.
John Collison: Okay, so you think we'll start seeing kind of great voice models in cars this year?
Mati Staniszewski: This year for their own cloud use cases, like on, on, …”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Bowman: 17% of UK taxpayers will pay higher rates by 2029
“By 2029, so in four years, 17%
Of taxpayers are going to be higher rate taxpayers.
So, fiscal drift, which is just holding the bands constant and letting inflation push people into the higher rate, the 40, the 40, but really forty-two-pee rate is, I mean, more…”
3326 days left 2035-10-22
3396 days left 2035-12-31
3466 days left 2036-03-10
Closed calls (8) the full record →
Staniszewski: Fused voice-LLM models will reach hundreds of billions of parameters
“The thing that's, you know, like I hesitated on the question is, in a cascaded approach, you probably will not see like dramatic size changes. You inherently want the models to be quick and reliable. You want to orchestrate them in a smart way. In a fused appr…”
Ricks: Machine-designed drugs haven't reached clinical trials yet, but are coming
“I don't know of one that's come through the machine driven discovery process, which is really machine plus human that's made it to the clinic yet, but they're coming.”
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Sundheim: Neobanks like Nubank and Revolut will increasingly take market share
“Iterate on product faster, have better engineers, and I think that those banks are going to increasingly take market share.”
Waymo Co-CEO: Gen-6 Custom Robotaxi Is Launching in 2026
“It's, you know, we're not, it's not open to the, you know, the public yet. But, you know, I took a ride in it the other day, fully autonomously, and that's coming this year.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Driver Will Expand to Hyundai Ioniq in 2026
“And then we're gonna put the six generation Waymo driver on other vehicle forms like the Hyundai Ionic that's coming, you know later in the year.”