The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

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3395days to next prediction date

Everyone Casey Handmer (6)Scott Wu (2)Reiner Pope (2)Evan Spiegel (2)Dan Sundheim (2)Ben Thompson (2)Zach Abrams (1)Sundar Pichai (1)Sam Bowman (1)RJ Scaringe (1)Mati Staniszewski (1)Kyle Vogt (1)

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3395 days left 2035-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035

China's electrification will end its dependence on Strait of Malacca oil

“Do you think by 2035 China is still going to be as dependent on oil through the Strait of Malacca? I don't. At the rate that they're deploying right now, they could cut off that supply if they needed to.”

Casey Handmer Oct 28, 2025 ▶ 29:42 Casey Handmer of Terraform Industries on solar maximalism, hard tech, and reclaiming the Salton Sea

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