prediction markets

also referred to as: prediction market

8 statements across 7 episodes · 4 bullish · 2 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement Aug 23, 2024 by Chamath Palihapitiya · across every show →

Everything said about prediction markets, oldest first

Aug 23, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Prediction markets are entertainment and gambling rather than reliable indicators
“I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling. I don't think that these things are as useful Directional indicators as they are just really interesting businesses that allow people to bet and wage…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 41:29 Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
Nov 6, 2024
Insight
Voulgaris: Bitcoin and Doge signaled election results before prediction markets
“If you just follow the price of Bitcoin, the price of Doge, the Mexican US dollar exchange ratio, all of those things, we're leading, we're getting that up way before the prediction markets started moving because those are the truest, biggest markets and the m…”
Haralabos Voulgaris Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 2:03:18 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
Sep 9, 2025
Insight
Adena Friedman: Options differ from prediction markets via multi-price, multi-duration bets
“Options are, I think, a great reflection of a prediction market. The difference, though, is that in a prediction market, it's a binary yes, no, versus an option market, you're laying, you're layering in your bets across multiple price points and different dura…”
Adena Friedman Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 14:51 Nasdaq CEO Reveals the Next Era Of The Stock Market - Adena Friedman | All-In Summit
Sep 15, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Tenev: Robinhood has a live prediction market on upcoming IPOs
“So for example, we have a prediction market live on the platform now about which companies are going to IPO.”
Vlad Tenev Sep 15, 2025 ▶ 16:41 Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on tokenizing stocks, expanding access to private shares, fintech's future
Oct 1, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Samani: Future media content will be largely derived from prediction markets
“As this kind of a behavior proliferates, we expect that the nature of media itself is going to change because a lot of media is now going to be derived from the prediction markets.”
Kyle Samani Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 8:42 Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani on Internet Capital Markets
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Everything will become a tokenized market with long/short trading
“Everything is becoming a market, and you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets, you'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this wa…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 1:21:48 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
Feb 13, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Prediction markets will be dominated by informed traders taking advantage of retail
“The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, Will look like the stock market free Reg FD. And there's nothing we can do except choose not to bet it. Because otherwise, what you're going to have are a ton of sharps taki…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 27:14 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Feb 13, 2026 positive
Insight
Chamath: Insider trading in prediction markets benefits society by revealing truth faster
“The use of inside information gets to the truth faster. And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds. And so if people make money along the way, and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwis…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 27:47 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
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