prediction markets
also referred to as: prediction market
8 statements across 7 episodes · 4 bullish · 2 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement Aug 23, 2024 by Chamath Palihapitiya · across every show →
Everything said about prediction markets, oldest first
Aug 23, 2024 negative
Chamath: Prediction markets are entertainment and gambling rather than reliable indicators
“I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling. I don't think that these things are as useful Directional indicators as they are just really interesting businesses that allow people to bet and wage…”
Nov 6, 2024
Voulgaris: Bitcoin and Doge signaled election results before prediction markets
“If you just follow the price of Bitcoin, the price of Doge, the Mexican US dollar exchange ratio, all of those things, we're leading, we're getting that up way before the prediction markets started moving because those are the truest, biggest markets and the m…”
Sep 9, 2025
Adena Friedman: Options differ from prediction markets via multi-price, multi-duration bets
“Options are, I think, a great reflection of a prediction market. The difference, though, is that in a prediction market, it's a binary yes, no, versus an option market, you're laying, you're layering in your bets across multiple price points and different dura…”
Sep 15, 2025 positive
Oct 1, 2025 bullish
Oct 10, 2025 bullish
Palihapitiya: Everything will become a tokenized market with long/short trading
“Everything is becoming a market, and you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets, you'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this wa…”
Feb 13, 2026 bearish
Chamath: Prediction markets will be dominated by informed traders taking advantage of retail
“The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, Will look like the stock market free Reg FD. And there's nothing we can do except choose not to bet it. Because otherwise, what you're going to have are a ton of sharps taki…”
Feb 13, 2026 positive
Chamath: Insider trading in prediction markets benefits society by revealing truth faster
“The use of inside information gets to the truth faster. And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds. And so if people make money along the way, and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwis…”