prediction markets
3 statements across 2 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Oct 31, 2024 by Tarek Mansour · across every show →
Everything said about prediction markets, oldest first
Oct 31, 2024 neutral
Mansour: Prediction market odds reflect win probabilities, not poll margins
“Prediction markets are just pricing the odds of Trump versus Kamala winning, right? They are for, like, they're just giving a probability. We think there's a, you know, today right now, it's a 55% chance that Trump is winning. That does not mean that Trump is …”
Oct 31, 2024 neutral
Mansour: Prediction market odds move more than underlying polling shifts
“If Trump polls one percent higher than Kamala, or vice versa, prediction markets are more volatile. They're gonna move more than one percent, right? They're gonna give Trump a higher probability, or Kamala a higher probability based on the polling.”
Sep 10, 2026 bullish
Armstrong: Coinbase prediction markets reached ~$100M run rate within months
“I think we shared in our last earnings call within months of launching it had to hit like a hundred million dollar revenue run rate. It's growing really nice, like over a hundred percent quarter over quarter, something like that.”