Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Prediction markets will disrupt insurance by cheapening fire and hurricane hedging
“You can trade and hedge fire risk. You can hedge hurricane risk. And if you think about the process of like insuring yourself against a fire or a hurricane, It can be very expensive and it's cumbersome. You have to talk to a broker on the phone and the contrac…”
Opinion
Tenev: AI lacks public defenders because retail investors cannot buy shares
“AI is like one of the fastest adopted products, but also one of the least popular. People are afraid that it's going to take my job, that it's going to, you know, affect my life negatively. I think a big part of that is there's no retail investment in AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Retail access to private companies will be standard in 5 years
“And I think that, you know, five years from now, The exact mechanisms, whether tokenization is legal or closed-end funds, that's less clear. But what I know is I, I'm very confident that retail investors getting exposure to private companies Will be easier, mu…”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI autonomously solved an unsolved Erdős math problem
“And now with Aristotle people are doing like systematic, they're going through them. And there was one that Aristotle solved fully autonomously. And then a bunch of others where Aristotle assisted in solving or converting into formal math language.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Most Robinhood revenue could be international and institutional in 10 years
“I think if you look 10 years from now, we see a world where more than half of our revenue could be outside the U.S. And also cut another way, more than half of our revenue could be business and institutional rather than retail.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood offers over 1,500 tokenized stocks in Europe
“1500 stocks are available for trading in Europe right now.”
Disclosure
Tenev reveals Robinhood's plan for 24/7 stock trading and DeFi lending
“There's like a three phase plan. Tokenize more stocks and then we have to integrate them into Bitstamp to allow 24 seven trading and also unleash them on DeFi so that you can self custody them and, Do collateralized lending and borrowing and all of that stuff.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Pretty much anything will likely become tradable real-time like stocks
“I think that we will likely see a world where pretty much anything can be tradable real time, like a stock.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Every consequential IPO candidate consults Robinhood on retail strategy
“This year, basically every consequential company going public is reaching out to us beforehand, asking us, you know, for advice on their retail strategy, how they can engage retail.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Harmonic AI became one of first models to win IMO gold
“We started solving, like, competition math problems, and we became one of the first models to actually get a gold medal on the International Math Olympiad, which is the hardest math competition In the world.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI got 10 of 12 Putnam competition problems correct
“Well, Aristotle which is the name of the math model that, that the company builds, In a consumer form, which just people can use freely, got 10 out of the 12 problems of the Putnam correct, which is a lot more than I got on the Putnam.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood Has 11 Business Lines Generating Over $100M in Revenue
“And now we have 11 business lines that generate a hundred million in annual revenue or more.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood cash sweep grew from zero to tens of billions
“The cash sweep program, we call it the high yield offering has gone from basically nothing in 2022 to tens of billions of dollars under custody.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood Gold reached 4M subscribers, including 40% of new signups
“Robinhood gold itself, which is a subscription product, we're up to four million gold subscribers, you know, and that's really ramped. Now, now at this .15% of all of our customers thereabouts are Robinhood gold subscribers, and of the customers that join on a…”
Insight
Tenev: Prediction markets function as news media sources, not just trading
“One of the big use cases of prediction markets is not just as a trading product, but almost as a news media product, the source of information.”
Insight
Tenev: Single-generation financial companies face 'certain death' as heirs inherit wealth
“A lot of our predecessors get into this trap of being a generational company. And I think that's certain death, right? Because eventually like. Nobody's figured out how to live forever. So eventually their kids are going to inherit the money and, you know, the…”
Opinion
Tenev: Retail investors now back real-revenue companies over story stocks
“And the companies that retail is, is investing in are companies that by and large have, I mean, they're not like stories. They're companies with real revenue and real growth.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tenev: Robinhood holds about $350 billion in assets under custody
“Our business right now, we've got about three hundred fifty billion assets under custody and it's fairly well diversified. You know, the bulk of it is in stocks and we have a little bit of crypto as well.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Video earnings calls increased Robinhood's live audience to up to 100,000
“So we went from, I think, hundreds of listeners on the old Polycom style earnings to tens of thousands, maybe, maybe even a 100,000 at the last one. So it increased the actual audience of our earnings by multiple orders of magnitude.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood's margin book more than doubled over the past year
“And now the margin book is, I mean, it's well more than doubled in the past year.”
Disclosure
Robinhood launches weather prediction markets on platform
“And you might know Robinhood just added weather prediction markets on the platform.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood was heavily concentrated in Dogecoin and meme stocks in 2021
“Whereas in 2021, Robin was much less diversified. We had higher concentration in, in crypto, particularly Dogecoin. And a lot of the activity was much more concentrated in stocks that were sort of like these meme story stocks.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Opendoor was first partner to livestream earnings inside Robinhood app
“So they became the first partner that we actually they not only live stream their earnings and took questions live, but they live streamed it in our app on Robin hood to their retail shareholders.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood allocated ~25% of its 2021 IPO to retail
“And we did it with our IPO, which was the largest retail allocation of an IPO of its size. And we did something like 25% retail. And this was in 20, 21.”
Vlad Tenev