prediction markets

“My take is that polls are just going to get a lot better, because what people are going to be is like, okay, I can make money if my polls are right, so I'm just going to commission this poll, and I'm going to do this, And now you can actually, like, compete a …”

“Because if you ban it, You're actually heightening the risks that you're trying to prevent, because now that activity is going offshore, right? Like, and where you cannot monitor it or police it or do anything to protect it.”

“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”

“I think that we do see this a lot with also, well, there's sort of the piece where people use it and that sort of react in real time to certain things, but I think there's some degree of depolarization. And that's what Luana is alluding to. Like, and in some w…”

“A lot of people are like prediction markets will destroy the news. I think it's way more complimentary. It's like when you're talking about an election, you're going to give your opinion, the market's not going to give you an opinion. You still need the commen…”

“And if those dimensions, you don't have a good understanding of x one to x n you cannot get a good estimate of y, right? And so you, the paper basically says that you need infinite markets. And prediction markets are this notion of infinite markets, which is l…”

“The polls were completely wrong and the markets were so much better at bringing that sort of information, and I think that it's the shining example of why these markets are forced for good, and we need to have them in the US and regulated”

“The interesting point, I think, and I think this is part of why prediction markets are being adopted so, so, so much is people like this idea that if like your edge is proportional to your research, how informed you are, how much time and energy you put into t…”