Artificial General Intelligence

“We'll know what works because people will use it because people are rational and economic actors, right? And all these questions on AGI and benchmarks will be replaced by the question, is this model the one that makes me the most, you know, that generates the …”

“Do you know what, to me, what actually the greatest danger in the world to open AI is, is to say AGI is here. And then everyone goes to ChatGPT, types in something, and gets a lukewarm response that isn't quite right. And then suddenly, I actually think that i…”

“I don't think he thinks it's here. Otherwise, he would say it. He's a, I mean, these guys, like, Greg Brockman, they are believers. I believe they are believers. So, if they believed it, they would say it.”

“I think AGI has basically been here since the beginning of the year. There are models that are incredibly performant inside of the closed frontier lab companies.”

“Basically, the idea is that if you want artificial general intelligence, the best way to get there is to just keep stacking specialized intelligences until you have no more gaps to fill.”

“I mean, we just got, you know, hammered in the, by like all of the intellectual giants of the field for saying that we were going after AGI. And then when we started really focusing on large language models, we got hammered again saying this is completely ridi…”

“In late, late, when we were starting OpenAI, there were very few AGI efforts in the world. There was DeepMind, one or two others that I can think of. It was like a very non-consensus thing to do.”

“You look at any advanced civilization in science fiction, there's two twin pillar technology. One's AGI in some form, and the other is simulation.”

“Investors that I've talked to are very cynical, so they're perfectly happy to use that in front of their own LPs, but they don't believe that in house. They look at this very cynically and with very cold calculating eyes and compare it to other similar real es…”

“If you kind of think about those dollars of CapEx, the only possible way to pay those dollars back is going to be AGI.”

“I think that the eight players around this four D chess board Think they are playing for the highest stakes in the universe. They are playing to be the emperor of the universe, and whatever that means. The person who controls AGI, whatever that means.”

“I think open AI strategy is everybody underestimates AGI all in AGI and we're going to be the most aggressive and everybody else is going to take fewer risks than we do.”

“In some ways I worry for Amazon, which is like, Heads I lose, tails I lose. It's like, if this all goes well and AGI happens, they're not well positioned for that. And then if it doesn't happen, they're kind of in the bath with everybody else on the capex that…”

“The way I see it, simulation as a piece of technology is one of the twin pillars of technology. I'm a fan of science fiction. You read any advanced science fiction, there's always two pillars. One is some form of AGI that always shows up. The other is simulati…”

“At least at the time Transformers came out, BERT came out and all that, nobody really thought this was a this was a path to emergent reasoning capabilities, a path to AGI itself.”

“I think even once you have AGI, all our AGI agents are going to need somewhere to store work and pull information from and reason about things. So I think, you know, a certain class of SaaS companies that were solely built for people to do work might face a bi…”

“The first thing I want to say is I'm like, certain there will be careers after AGI. The reason for that is, like, most of our jobs, for sure are for jobs, are kind of, like, made up. Most jobs are made up... So when AGI is here, like it will change people's jo…”

“I think both, you know, DeepSeek and Kimi, if not seen as kind of the top two labs right now coming out of China, both founders have openly talked a lot about management of people you know, removing distractions, really focused on the pursuit of AGI, not kind …”

“The model also, although brilliant, is still not learning continuously as it goes. And that feels to me like, maybe not a hard requirement for AGI, but certainly something that I'd like.”

“AGI is not actually about any single model. It's the model. It's the machinery that makes the models, and from model to model, we actually are learning new things. We're figuring out new science. That stuff is working amazingly well.”

“One of the most interesting, important, whatever things that I've learned last decade is people in general can get used to almost anything. The world can go from dismissing a pandemic as a joke to completely locked down to This is how it's been, and it's fine,…”

“We think focusing on coding and long horizon software tasks is a path towards AGI because it forces us to solve the hard problems.”

“I don't think audio. Adds to that. I don't think it pushes us close to AGI. I think it is a necessary modality as you get close to AGI.”

“I really believe the future will not be a few small number of AGI models dominating the world. I really believe the future will be, it may be scary, but I think that's true, it will be millions of specialized models, one per application, per use case.”

“AGI is a meaningless term at this point. It doesn't mean anything.”

“Yeah, so when the phrase, when the question is phrased like this, does an LLM, a large language model by itself, lead to AGI, the answer is a clear no.”

“The model alone, the foundation model alone, is, is not an AGI. No, you need the other guy, which uses all kinds of tricks to exploit The algorithmic information in the world model to come up with better plans.”

“Yeah, probably LLMs are going to run out at some point and they're not AGI and okay, we have maybe another 30 years of AI winter or something and then like the next paradigm really is actually the thing.”

“I mean, if you think about, oh, there was a Turing test, blew it away. I mean, you think about that, that any period of time, sort of 1015, 20, 3040, 50 years ago, we, any definition we would have previously put forward. We've blown past it.”

“And I think that the question of what's the interface you want, what is the product that you want, is what we spend a lot of time thinking about. And the answer is you want almost no interface. You want no product. Right. You want this to be like, what's the i…”

“AGI is not happening at any of these places.”

“If we assume that like we're pretty AGI pilled intelligence is just gonna be metered out through compute then what matters? Then it's like one, like your relationship with people. And I think looks maxing is like a pretty narrow focus on like, you know, the ph…”

“And there, P zero from day one was coding. The reason the mechanism system there was, if we crack coding, Then we will crack AGI. You know, our mission is AGI. We want to get there safely. If we focus on coding, it's such a generally powerful capability that i…”

“AGI is going to just make humans a hundred X more productive.”

“And then DeepMind was much more top down where Demis just had this vision of, okay, we're going to create AGI. Here's all the things that I think are required. And so they kind of had this tech tree of how they were going to do it. And then let's have all thes…”

“I mean, I think generally the AI world has An issue around, like, expectations versus delivery of the I think when we have these very dramatic statements about white collar go work going away or you know, we will see, we will have AGI by 20 and 27. Like, I thi…”

“So the whole concept of AGI that it's going to be equal to people at everything all at the same time doesn't really make sense to me. It's going to be better at some things, worse at other things.”

“But right now, I would say we're at about, we're close to AGI, because if I ask a chatbot, I can ask it any question, and most of the time it'll answer at the level of a not very good expert. It'll be much better than me at anything I don't know a lot about. S…”

“To me, AGI is here. To me, it's all possible now. And I know people are skeptical. People know AGI is not here because sometimes this, sometimes that, or that's not what I believe. And I think it's more like a skill issue.”

“If we froze the models that we have right now, and you really worked on the harness, and, like, maybe, like, we also spend more time, like, training with, like, a great harness I think people would really feel the AGI in every single domain, or could already f…”

“We've already achieved, or gotten close to achieving some simulation of AGI.”

“Even if there's AGI, all that's left is inference.”

“So in some way I think we'll get to at or even beyond human level intelligence in these systems. It actually might be the case that we get to artificial general intelligence first in these embodiments.”

“I think this is extremely important to get, if we want to solve, like AGI and get to, like, human intelligence in the physical world, like, it's all going to start here with the hands for us.”

“The components that you just mentioned, I'm pretty sure will be part of the final architecture for AGI. So I think they've come such a long way now and we've proven out so many things about what they can do. I can't see a world in which we will sort of realize…”

“Continual learning, Long-term reasoning. Some aspects of memory. These are still unsolved. And how to get the systems to be more consistent across the board. I think all of these are going to be required for AGI.”

“It could be that there's still one or two big ideas left that need to be cracked. I don't think it's more than one or two, if there are out there. And I think You know, my betting is about fifty-fifty if that's the case.”

“You have to have an active system that can actively solve problems for you to get to AGI. That was always clear to us. So agents are that path.”

“Depending on what your AGI timeline is, You know, mine's like, 20, 30 or something like this.”

“I think it will take a long time for AGI to diffuse across society.”

“It clearly wasn't an AGI. It was lacking something, but just if you'd describe your criteria for AGI two months prior, it probably would have been compatible with what GPT-IV was”

“It's the AGI is not here, and it's kind of silly for folks, I think, to sort of suggest it is.”

“I think one thing that's becoming more clear is I think like coding agents are the kernel VGI, sort of everything is a coding agent.”

“You know, I've spoken with a bunch of people about this at every other lab and they themselves have been surprised that a coding agent was, is the most promising path to AGI.”

“The very fascinating thing about agents is the more power an agent has, the more intelligently it performs. And so if an agent has an entire computer, like a Mac mini, it, you feel like you have AGI in your hands.”

“No. Actually, the opposite.”

“I sometimes quantify the coming of AGI as 10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed.”

“We've always defined, we've been very consistent how we define AGI as basically a system that Exhibits all the cognitive capabilities the human mind has. And that's important because the brain is the only existence proof we have that we know of in, maybe in th…”

“I mean, I think, look, I've got a probability distribution around the timings, but I would say there's a very good chance of it being within the next five years.”

“We used to do this extrapolation of compute and algorithmic progress, and basically we predicted around 20 years it would take from when we started out, and I think we're pretty much on track.”