artificial general intelligence

also referred to as: agi

43 statements across 23 episodes · 16 bullish · 13 bearish · 22 people on the record · first statement Jan 2, 2019 by Fei-Fei Li · across every show →

Everything said about artificial general intelligence, oldest first

Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fei-Fei Li: How to achieve artificial general intelligence remains largely unknown
“Specific task-driven applications are part of AI and important, but there is also the AGI, artificial general intelligence of reasoning, abstraction, Communication, emotional interaction, understanding of intention and purpose, formulation of knowledge underst…”
Fei-Fei Li Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:27 a16z Podcast | When Humanity Meets A.I.
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Paul Daugherty: Artificial general intelligence is not happening anytime soon
“We're not creating artificial superhumans anytime soon with artificial general intelligence or superintelligence or transhumanism.”
Paul Daugherty Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:16 a16z Podcast | Automation + Work, Human + Machine
Jan 9, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Andreessen: Scaling neural networks will not automatically lead to AGI
“I'm a little less convinced that the tech, software technologies we have now are, like, on some linear path towards just, like, quote, unquote, AGI, or just, quote, unquote, like, consciousness, like, I don't, It's hard for me to believe that consciousness is …”
Marc Andreessen Jan 9, 2023 ▶ 5:18 Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murati: AGI will be the most important technology humanity builds
“There's not going to be a more important technology that we all build than AGI.”
Mira Murati Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 3:54 Where We Go From Here with OpenAI's Mira Murati
Sep 25, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Murati: OpenAI charter defines AGI as autonomous execution of most intellectual work
“In our chart, OpenAI Charter, we define it as a computer system, basically, that is able to perform autonomously the majority of intellectual work.”
Mira Murati Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 18:29 Where We Go From Here with OpenAI's Mira Murati
Sep 25, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murati: Reaching AGI will likely require breakthroughs beyond pure model scaling
“Whether that takes you all the way to AGI or not, that's a different question. There are probably some other breakthroughs and advancements needed along the way, but I think there's still a long way to go in In the scaling laws and to really gather a lot of be…”
Mira Murati Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 18:07 Where We Go From Here with OpenAI's Mira Murati
Sep 25, 2023 positive
Opinion
Shazeer is not currently afraid of AGI destroying humanity
“No. Not yet. Not yet. I think there's a lot of possibility of you know, a lot of potential benefits and yeah, we're going to work on it as the technology improves.”
Noam Shazeer Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 4:31 Universally Accessible Intelligence with Character.ai's Noam Shazeer
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Character.AI aims for AGI by building consumer products at scale
“Our goal is to be like an AGI company and a product first company. And the way to do that is by picking the right product that forces us to work on the right things, things that generalize, make the model smarter, make it, like, do what people, you know, what …”
Noam Shazeer Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 11:00 Universally Accessible Intelligence with Character.ai's Noam Shazeer
Sep 24, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang predicts AGI is at least four or more years away
“It's not, like, imminent. It's not, like, immediately on the horizon. So, you know, on the order of, you know, four plus years but you can see the glimmers, and, you know, depending on the algorithmic innovation cycles that we talked about before, You know, co…”
Alexandr Wang Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 34:22 Why Human Data is Key to AI: Alexandr Wang from Scale AI
Sep 24, 2024
Opinion
Wang defines AGI as automating 80 percent of purely digital jobs
“I like the definition of this. That's sort of like, you know let's say 80 plus percent of jobs that you, that people can do purely at computers, so digital focused jobs are accomplishable with, you know, AI can accomplish those jobs.”
Alexandr Wang Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 34:04 Why Human Data is Key to AI: Alexandr Wang from Scale AI
Feb 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: DeepSeek is a step toward AGI in your pocket
“This is another step to basically AGI in your pocket.”
Martin Casado Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 28:15 What DeepSeek Means For The Future Of AI | Tech Veterans Weigh In
Feb 14, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: The arrival of AGI will trigger a massive financial market correction
“First, when AGI is here, there will be a massive correction in the financial markets. That is actually my Turing test is if AGI is here, will it actually be able to make significantly more money than a human investor? Better than human investing. And I think p…”
George Sivulka Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 29:10 Reasoning Models Are Remaking Professional Services
Feb 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Hebbia aims to be the enterprise tool of choice for AGI
“Rather than try to build the AGI, how do, how about we build the AI platform that is so good that if AGI were to complete a task, it would choose to use Hebbia to do that task.”
George Sivulka Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 13:20 Reasoning Models Are Remaking Professional Services
Feb 14, 2025 positive
Insight
Sivulka: AGI will orchestrate sub-agents instead of using massive context windows
“You wouldn't want An AGI to jam a 100,000 documents into its context window and take an infinite amount of time to, or some very, very large amount of time to process that. You'd rather use and orchestrate a bunch of sub-agents.”
George Sivulka Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 13:58 Reasoning Models Are Remaking Professional Services
Jul 28, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Every culture will have its own AGI, crypto, social network
“I think is one very useful macro frame means every culture has their own AGI and eventually every culture has their own social network and cryptocurrency and AI.”
Balaji Srinivasan Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 0:02 Balaji Srinivasan: How AI Will Change Politics, War, and Money
Aug 4, 2025 positive
Opinion
Patel: UBI is the only viable redistribution model if AGI eliminates wages
“If all human wages go to zero or go below subsistence, then the only way to deal with that is through some kind of UBI rather than, you know, if you happen to sue open AI, you get a trillion dollar settlement. Otherwise you're kind of screwed.”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 39:51 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Aug 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Current AI is not AGI because models cannot learn over time
“And they actually don't, they can't like learn over the course of six months, how to become a better editor for me or how to become a better transcriptor for me. And since a human hire would be able to do this, they can't. So therefore it's not AGI.”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 3:07 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Aug 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Galactic colonization will be physically possible post-AGI
“I'm not saying this is the world I want. I'm just saying like, just like, think about it physically. If you're colonizing the galaxy, which you can do potentially after AGI. I mean, I'm not saying like it'll happen tomorrow after AGI. Right. But like, there's …”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 21:14 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Aug 4, 2025 positive
Opinion
Dwarkesh Patel: UBI is superior to direct goods distribution post-AGI
“In a future world with explosive growth, we're going to see so many new kinds of goods and services that will be possible that are not available today. And so distributing just like a basket of goods is just inferior to saying, oh, if like we solve aging, here…”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 40:53 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Aug 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dwarkesh Patel: Post-AGI, humans will not have high-paying jobs
“Once we get AGI humans will not have high paying jobs.”
Dwarkesh Patel Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 34:46 Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
Oct 8, 2025 positive
Insight
Altman: AI and society must co-evolve through iterative model releases
“And I think that, so research benefits aside, I'm a big believer that society and technology have to co-evolve. It's, you can't just drop the thing at the end. It doesn't work that way. It is a sort of ongoing back and forth.”
Sam Altman Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 5:47 Sam Altman on Sora, Energy, and Building an AI Empire
Oct 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: World models like Sora are crucial for achieving AGI
“I think you could say that on the surface, Sora, for example, does not look like it's AGI relevant, but I would bet that if we can build really great world models, that'll be much more important to AGI than people think.”
Sam Altman Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 5:13 Sam Altman on Sora, Energy, and Building an AI Empire
Oct 8, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AGI arrival will not transform the world as radically as expected
“AGI will come, it will go Wuxian Bai. The world will not change as much as the impossible amount that you would think it should.”
Sam Altman Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 24:14 Sam Altman on Sora, Energy, and Building an AI Empire
Oct 13, 2025
Opinion
Misra: AGI requires generating new science beyond training data
“AGI will be when we are able to create new science, new results, new math. When an AGI comes up with a theory of relativity, it has to go beyond what it has been trained on. To come up with new paradigms, new science. That's my definition of AGI.”
Vishal Misra Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 0:16 Will LLMs Get Us To AGI?
Oct 13, 2025 negative
Insight
Misra: Adding data to LLMs cannot create new mathematical manifolds
“There has to be an architectural lead that is able to create these manifolds and just throwing new data will not do it. It'll just smoothen out the already existing manifolds.”
Vishal Misra Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 37:47 Will LLMs Get Us To AGI?
Oct 23, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Masad: Bearish on true AGI breakthroughs due to current AI profitability
“I, I'm kind of bearish on, on, on true AGI breakthrough because what we built is so useful and economically valuable.”
Amjad Masad Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 51:12 Marc Andreessen & Amjad Masad on “Good Enough” AI, AGI, and the End of Coding
Oct 23, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: AI lacks cross-domain transfer learning for generalized reasoning
“Because there doesn't seem to be transfer learning across these domains that are, you know, significant, right? So if we get a lot better at code, We're not immediately getting better at, like, generalized reasoning. We need to go also, you know, get training …”
Amjad Masad Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 34:29 Marc Andreessen & Amjad Masad on “Good Enough” AI, AGI, and the End of Coding
Oct 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Masad: The entire US economy is effectively a bet on AGI
“Now the entire US economy is sort of a bet on AGI”
Amjad Masad Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 34:27 Marc Andreessen & Amjad Masad on “Good Enough” AI, AGI, and the End of Coding
Nov 3, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Silicon Valley is pulling back from the imminent AGI narrative
“My sense is that people are in Silicon Valley are kind of pulling back from the, let's call it imminent AGI narrative.”
David Sacks Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 21:44 Sacks, Andreessen & Horowitz: How America Wins the AI Race Against China
Nov 7, 2025
Insight
Adam D'Angelo: AGI is achieved when AI can do any remote job
“One definition I kind of like is if you say that you have a remote worker, a human, any job that can be done by someone whose job can be done remotely that, that's AGI.”
Adam D'Angelo Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 2:47 Amjad Masad & Adam D’Angelo: How Far Are We From AGI?
Nov 7, 2025 negative
Opinion
Amjad Masad: Papers predicting AGI by 2027 are vibe-based hype, not science
“So my criticism of the idea of like AGI, 20, 27, you know, that paper that I think it's called Alexander or someone else wrote and then and the situational awareness and all this hype papers that are not really science. They're just vibe.”
Amjad Masad Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 5:15 Amjad Masad & Adam D’Angelo: How Far Are We From AGI?
Nov 7, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Amjad Masad: Current large language models are not on the path to AGI
“I don't think LLMs as they can understand are on, on the way to AGI and my definition for AGI is I think the old school RL definition, which is a machine that can go into any environment and learn efficiently in the same way that a human could go into you can …”
Amjad Masad Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 8:47 Amjad Masad & Adam D’Angelo: How Far Are We From AGI?
Nov 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shear: Any true AGI will inherently be a sentient being
“And we are clearly, they're saying they're building an AGI, and AGI will be a being. You can't be an AGI and not be a being, because something that has the general ability to effectively use judgment, think for itself, discern between possibilities is obviousl…”
Emmett Shear Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 27:30 Emmett Shear on Building AI That Actually Cares: Beyond Control and Steering
Dec 8, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Rao: Current AI models are nowhere close to AGI
“I don't think they're anywhere close to AGI because, I mean, they still make stupid errors. They're very useful tools, but they're not what, it's not like working with a person, right?”
Naveen Rao Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 18:03 The Chip That Could Unlock AGI.
Dec 12, 2025
Insight
Evans: AGI is either already here or perpetually five years away
“Either it's already here and it's just more software or it's five years away and will always be five years away.”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 5:33 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
Mar 17, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Misra: Scale will not solve everything; AGI requires a different architecture
“One of the misconceptions that exists today is that scale will solve everything. Scale will not solve everything. You need a different kind of architecture, and this continual learning is a difficult problem.”
Vishal Misra Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 31:09 Why Scale Will Not Solve AGI | Vishal Misra - The a16z Show
Mar 17, 2026
Insight
Misra: AGI requires real-time plasticity and causal world models
“To get to what is called AGI, I think there are two things that need to happen. One is this plasticity. Which has to be implemented through container learning. Secondly, we have to move from correlation to causation.”
Vishal Misra Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 31:46 Why Scale Will Not Solve AGI | Vishal Misra - The a16z Show
Mar 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Sankar: AI labs confuse articles of faith about AGI with empirical reality
“Part of the potential pathology from the labs is that they have filled that hole with AGI. And so there are things that they assert as empirical that are actually articles of faith. They may be true. They may not be true. I don't know, but they get confused be…”
Shyam Sankar Mar 20, 2026 ▶ 36:24 Palantir CTO on The SaaS Apocalypse & Preventing The Next World War | a16z
Apr 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji Srinivasan: Large language models will not lead to AGI
“No. Actually, the opposite.”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 0:30 Why Balaji Srinivasan Thinks the SaaS Apocalypse Is Overhyped | The a16z Show
Jun 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Woo: As AI commoditizes intelligence, charisma will be the key human skill
“If we assume that like we're pretty AGI pilled intelligence is just gonna be metered out through compute then what matters? Then it's like one, like your relationship with people. And I think looks maxing is like a pretty narrow focus on like, you know, the ph…”
Jeff Woo Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 19:18 Jake Paul on Going From YouTube to Boxing to Investing | a16z ft. Anti Fund
Jul 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sreenivas: AGI will not replace software because agents still need infrastructure
“I think even once you have AGI, all our AGI agents are going to need somewhere to store work and pull information from and reason about things. So I think, you know, a certain class of SaaS companies that were solely built for people to do work might face a bi…”
Ashwin Sreenivas Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 20:25 How Decagon Runs 90% of Its Agents on Open-Source Models
Jul 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zhang: Human careers will still exist after AGI
“The first thing I want to say is I'm like, certain there will be careers after AGI. The reason for that is, like, most of our jobs, for sure are for jobs, are kind of, like, made up. Most jobs are made up... So when AGI is here, like it will change people's jo…”
Jesse Zhang Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 29:25 How Decagon Runs 90% of Its Agents on Open-Source Models
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